Handicapper Tips & Picks

Eduardo Rodriguez returns with a pair in this race and both capable in this spot. #3 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS has the foundation against winners and coming back from a rough beat (B) under similar conditions last month as one of two 3yo in the field, something that continues here. #4 HEAVENLY HASH had a slight SETUP with the maiden win though back numbers and efforts to hold her form and even improve as she makes her second start off the layoff and a fit on this circuit.

#1 HEART OF HANISCH has enough tactical speed to put herself into the race from the rail something she was unable to do three weeks ago with a poor start and WIDE RUSH into a solid pace over the poor WEATHER impacted track conditions coming up short as the heavy favorite on the day and will look to validate herself back in a similar spot first off the claim for A. Meraz.

#2 HOLY IMAGE is a longshot though has form coming into this race and a contentious pace could see her sneaky into the number at double digit odds.

#6 SET THE PACE should be the controlling speed in this race and the most dangerous of those EP runners however could find company in the role and with the higher 47 SpeedRate must come out with a top effort off the bench to hold that edge in this group around two turns.

The Contention and SpeedRate can upgraded runners form off the pace: #1 BLESSED ANNA projects to find a lot of attention for the live connections and wheeling back under similar conditions from the 4/7 where she was favored on the day. BLESSED ANNA turned in a strong CLOSE similar to #3 IZZY’S MONSTER to finish together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Hot Dame though was able to SAVED ground, something not afforded to BLESSED ANNA.

The WIDE trip also played against #4 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN one that had a look on the day from buried form and found wagering support down to 7-2, the second choice in wagering off the 8-1 ML. She could be dismissed today given the recent outcome and see a rebound at longer odds. #7 SILKY WARRIOR could still be a race out waiting for the turf though she is not out of it, just requires price compensation especially on the win end. 

This race shape has a tricky dynamic with the “Fire” Contention paired with the low SpeedRate that can be seen visually on the Plot with five of the six “bunched” around each other though below the ParLine. That is not the most ideal scenario, though not an impossible scenario for #5 COWGIRL FRANKIE to make her late run and pass that first flight of horses.

That one true scenario requires some price compensation on COWGIRL FRANKIE though could be there in this compact field with the “logical” #2 POSITIONDUMONI and #6 COCKTAIL CUTIE likely to find their share of wagering support and similar between the two V. Childers runners, preference to #3 FERGIE ATTACK over #1 FREEDOM ATTACK; and over #4 HOP AWAY HOTTIE one that does not present much of an edge in this group and should show more early speed under J. Felix following the SLOG, TROUBLE_S last out. 

#6 BABA’S BOY should find a different trip today than two weeks ago when forced to contest the pace. Ulloa had been aboard in prior seasons with success on the lead and they were game in defeat with the winner, #1 MILLARD’S SMILE making their run from off the pace. Today’s race shape could allow then to rate just off rivals #4 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #5 BLURT and look for first run to turn the tables.

A different dynamic along with conditioning could benefit WHERE’D THE DAY GO looking to score on the front end and that scenario opens up here. The longer projected odds alone upgrade #7 BLOOMING GARDEN as he makes his second start off the layoff and can step forward from the race two weeks ago given the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and should bring plenty of fitness in from that WIDE trip. A front wrap removal could upgrade further though fits as well as any in this field on his best day.

#2 STORM BORN is another to get an eye on the track for a front wrap removal and glancing at the Plot could find the same trip (Quad II Square) as BABA’S BOY and does project to go off higher of the two.

This is a deep race where a legitimate case can be made for every runner in this field. #8 TAPERINEA is the least interesting at a shorter number coming off the layoff into today’s event though would be no surprise; the edge to #7 EMITYAAZ at the longer odds of the two and similar Plot position with recency is preferred if going in that direction.

#2 TIMELESS GLORY fits logically off her current form and with a return to O. Hernandez, the rider aboard for a win last year. #5 DIALED INNA also fits here though current form is not strong to justify a shorter number, the removal of the front wraps could be a positive and overall prerace visuals that will be required here.

Looking at the Plot and the group of five runners bunched together under a “Sun” Contention and honest 39 SpeedRate sets up for a closer/Quad IV. #1 POINT OF INFINITY being one of those runners and one less proven over the dirt though did break their maiden by open lengths last summer at MNR with the races take off the turf making a middle move on a course rated “good” though appeared quite dry. The layoff comes into play though for her is one that has had to deal with longer layoffs in the past and can run off the bench especially with the right pace setup. #3 MORNING LINE NEWS is also upgraded in today’s race shape and with the time off returning to Hawthorne at the route distance. Her races here in the past were all contested sprinting with her two wins in 2023 around two turns.

Even the two longer shots in #4 CAIRO SUMMER and #6 MISS WINDY SLEW both show “green” OptixNOTES Keywords coming into this event and are not far off the others in this field placed where they can compete and pull off an upset.

#5 CODE RUNNER had a big look just over a week ago at KEE and can upgraded from that trip and the connection might feel the same way wheeling right back for this race. They were giving up recency and with Talamo aboard, a weak gate rider had CODE RUNNER off a step slow and forced to RUSH WIDE into an honest pace before losing ground. The race par today is closer to a lateral move from the recent series of races in KY to suggest they can compete here and given a very strong Surface/Distance Plot upgrade.  

#3 ALPINE GHOST is the price play in this race and should be sitting on a peak effort. He has moves forward number wise into this third start back off the layoff and appreciative of the added ground along the way. That should continue here and further intent with a rider change.

#2 MAQAMAT was a live longshot two weeks ago and off the BTL effort and class change is a logical contender here. He looked to need the race off the bench going back to opening day and the move off the rail along with the front wrap removal. The class drop should assist, and further intent though still must come out running once again under a similar race par. #5 JRUE BREEZE follows MAQAMAT in a similar race-to-race pattern and looking at the Plot, moves up in today’s race shape.

#6 KINGSWOOD also wheels back from a BTL effort on 3/31 and out of a race that has held form with Time Heist winning again last week along with the 6^th place finisher Boise winning last weekend at FAN and the others holding their form. 

#5 SUCCESSION is the horse to beat coming into this race with some of the higher figures, class drop and upgraded off their current form. Since the claim the timing and rail draw was not ideal on 3/1 and upgraded from the 3/21 event draw outside staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early pace around two turns.

#11 GRAND FESTIVAL is close on numbers with a top effort and presents upside in his second start of the season with the slight addition of ground. The timing was also a quick turnaround shipping up from TAM and two weeks since their final start of that meet. They have been given a couple more week and likely better WEATHER conditions today and a better start than the TROUBLE_S three weeks ago.

The debut trip for #6 IRISH COAST was a complete EX – EXCUSE from 4/7 at the higher MCL condition and slightly higher par than the group returning from the MCL event at this level later on that card. They appear no worse for the wear working again on 4/20 and returning here with another live rider with E. Gallardo aboard. Mojica had been named on debut and also had been named aboard #9 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD when they were entered to debut on opening day (3/23) and D. Cohen has the call here as one of two mounts on the card – aboard #1 REGULAR GUY in Race 6.  

Conditioned claimers open the day as an evenly matched bunch kicks things off. Looking to 3-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS on top as she race well in the slop in her last and gets and added 16th today. She has tactical speed and could rate closer earlier than she did in her last. 1-HEART OF HANISCH was favored at this level in her last, getting sent away at 3-5. She got away a step slowly and then was left to chase much of the race. Don't be surprised today if she shows more speed early as Mojica remains in the saddle despite the claim. 4-HEAVENLY HASH comes in off the win in her last as she tracked the leaders early before running on late. She's the second Rodriguez entrant in this spot but there's the potential for the barn to run 1-2.

Looks to be some early pace in this race which could set things up for the stalking trip of 1-BLESSED ANNA in this spot. She raced well in the slop in her last and that was behind the lone speed of Hot Dame. With the potential for others to press in here let's see if she can run them down late. 3-IZZY'S MONSTER just missed at this level in her last as she battled to the wire. She likes this Hawthorne strip and looks to get the jump on a horse like Blessed Anna today. 6-SET THE PACE has speed but could have company as well. She's in for the tag but was claimed for just 15k three back. A win and a claim wouldn't be the worst thing by any means today.

This race came up quite tough as any of the six could win in here. With the added distance today I'll give the nod to 5-COWGIRL FRANKIE as she comes off a good effort in her last. She does tend to have gate issues but if she can get away just a bit better early she should be charging late. 3-FERGIE ATTACK has speed and ran well in a tough allowance in her first start of the meet. She has since posted a pair of works as she is one of two Childers runners in here. 2-POSITIONDUMONI is another that fits well in this race as she makes her third start of the meet. She may not have taken as well as some others to the off going in her last but could wake up with a fast track return.

What a turnaround in performance for 6-BABA'S BOY last out. It did coincide with a class drop and venue shift as well as a distance change. He comes back at the same level today and has the potential to be the controlling speed. 1- MILLARD'S SMILE was the one who ran down Baba's Boy last out as he closed with a late, wide rush. He draws the inside today and should be able to save ground much of the way. The entry of stablemate Blurt could benefit him to hopefully keep the pace honest. 4-WHERE'D THE DAY GO chased while facing these last out and ran on late. That was the first start of the year for him as he should be able to get a very similar trip today.

6-CAMP DADDY answered a lot of questions last out, especially the question of distance. Sent away as the 4-5 choice in a solid allowance field, he made the top and opened up through the stretch. He may have to deal with Ardanwood early in here but if he can put him away early, he may be able to repeat that last performance. 8-READTHECLIFFNOTES loves Hawthorne, winning 10 of 19 starts over the track. He was a good third while facing similar in his last and looks to still be going strong as a 9yo. 2-OCEAN OF STORMS is one of two Arnett runners in this spot as he comes out of the same race with Readthecliffnotes last out. He stalked the pace in that race and ran evenly through the lane. A close up trip in here should put him in a spot to contend late while at a price.

The class drop may be all that is needed for 5-JRUE BREEZE to win in here. He chased in his last couple but just ran evenly in the lane. There's not a ton of pace in this race as he should be able to rate closer early and run on late. 6-KINGSWOOD ran at this level last out, closing ground late after some trouble at the top of the lane. The added eighth should only help his chances as he is at his best at three quarters. 2-MAQAMAT ran a big race against better while at 42-1 in his last. He's another that is going to need some pace to chase for a barn that should be waking up very quickly.

It's a big field but on paper it appears 5-SECESSION is going be very tough in this spot. He shortens up in his third start off the claim and drops slightly. This barn has had a great meet as this runner is spotted to win. 4-LARRY'S LUNCHBOX merits a look as he has run decent races at this level in his last couple. He has tactical speed and shouldn't be too far off the pace in this race. 3-SMACKOVER LIME improved in his last while dropping a bit in that spot. He comes off the layoff into here with three works of the track as he figures to show more today.

Not in love with 3-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS by any means but even less fond of her rivals. Her last race was one of the best in her career, putting a halt to a long series of poor efforts. Making her case even stronger is that her second-place finish there was coming out of what would be considered a “key” race, when at least two members of the field came back to win their next start, which the first and third runners did. But her form prior was dismal and she lost the services of the apprentice rider so she will be carrying an additional five pounds. Her only real competition, however, would seem to come from stablemate 4-HEAVENLY HASH. That filly broke her maiden in last, her first start for this barn, her first start at Hawthorne and her first on dirt. She utilized the same rider as top choice in that prior race and, without his allowance, will be carrying seven pounds additional and taking on “tougher” rivals. 6-MS KS DYNASTY also broke her maiden in last. However, that race was last year and it was on synthetic surface. Her best races came in routes, including her win, so must wonder if this race is too short for her.

6-SET THE PACE could be ready to do just that. She’s making her first start since October but she has been training well for a barn that wins with a high percentage of runners coming off similar layoffs. She isn’t the only speed in the race and she might need the tightener but believe she put away the other speed and have something left for the stretch run. 1-BLESSED ANNA was favored in her local debut but had to settle for a third-place finish. Although she has shown decent speed in the past, I think she’ll be tracking the pace today. Her last two races came on off tracks so and two of her five wins came on “wet” surfaces so if weatherman’s advance forecast is current, it could turn out to be to her advantage. 3-IZZY’S MONSTER has four wins to her credit but, according to speed figures, her second-place finish in last could have been her best race yet. She generally does her best running late but she did have a near wire-to-wire winning effort a few starts back. Figures prominently.

6-COCKTAIL CUTIE displayed unusual speed, for her, in her first start outside California. She just missed hanging on. She’s meeting a similar group of runners, though this field might contain more early speed. Might be taken a bit off the pace with the hope of coming on late. 3-FERGIE ATTACK doesn’t own blistering speed but she does appear to be the quickest member of this field. She tired in last but was chasing a tough winner while making her first start since October. 5-COWGIRL FRANKIE doesn’t always fire but, when she does, she can close a ton. Has a legitimate chance to mow them down in the stretch.

Closer 1-MILLARD’S SMILE was able to take advantage of a fast pace in last and proceeded to fly by the field late. If anything, the pace of this race could turn out to be even more favorable. Not only will the two members who fought for the lead in last return in this one, but they will be joined by a couple others that relish the front end. 7-BLOOMING GARDEN was overmatched in his first start of the meet but there’s a good chance that he’ll be the best of the speed with the drop to this level. Not sure he’ll be able to clear the field but his presence should certainly guarantee a quick pace which helps the chances of top choice. 2-STORM BORN is another possibly capable of coming on late, although he is often sent for the lead. But, if he’s allowed to relax early, he could pass the tiring speed runners in the stretch.

Have to give 5-DIALED INNA the benefit of the doubt. Her two races this year were awful but both were against better rivals than these. They drop her into a more favorable condition today. She’s had the versatility in the past to handle any pace. Should wake up at this level. 7-EMITYAAZ and 2-TIMELESS GLORY dueled for the lead in last and both held on well to finish third and second, respectively. However, that was Emityaaz’s first race of the year and she should be fitter after that effort while Timeless Glory will carry an additional seven pounds with the switch to a journeyman rider. Might switch their finish order because of those changes.

Love the versatility of 8-READTHECLIFFNOTES. Obviously this 9-year-old has lost a few steps but he is as game as they get. He won 10 of his 17 local races, nine of 17 at the distance, and he’s two-for-two on off tracks. Don’t think he’ll get involved in an early speed duel with his younger rivals but do expect him to have dead aim late. 6-CAMP DADDY was impressive when wiring the field in his local debut. However, like top choice, he’s been just as impressive when coming from off the pace. If he goes for the lead again they might not catch him but, even if he doesn’t, expect him to be a factor nearing the wire. 4-ARDENWOOD owns good speed but he does tend to tire. He won four of five in 2023 but hasn’t even hung on to finish in the money in five 2024 starts.

6-KINGSWOOD only raced evenly in his local debut but think that race was a little tougher than this one and he did have some trouble. He’s at his best when tracking the pace so he needs an alert break to get him into position quickly. 5-JRUE BREEZE and 2-MAQAMAT both drop from a tougher condition. Neither showed much there in their last couple races but both are eligible to improve in this one.

5-SECESSION turns back in distance to make his local debut. He tired late when stretched out for the first time but he barely lost the last time he sprinted. Not sure how he’ll handle the transition to dirt but would imagine it won’t pose a problem. 9-SENDMEDOWNTHEROAD makes his debut. Leading barn wins about 22% of their first timers though not quite as often with the low-level maiden claimers. We’ll see. 4-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX finished in the money in last couple at this level. He was far back from the winner in each event but the winners of those races were far ahead of everybody else and don’t think there are any of that type in this race.

Race 5: 8 - 5 - 7

Pick4: 2,5,7,8 / 1,4,6,7,8 / 2,5,6,7 / 5 - $40

My top pick, the #8 Taperinea (7-2) has been on turf for a while now and is coming off a

decent layoff for trainer Antonio Meraz. And although she has run her best on turf, she

broke her maiden on dirt and has decent efforts. She should have the front end all to

herself in a field where not too many horses like to pass others. However, the #5 Dialed

Inna looks to be one of the few that can sit just off and pounce late, so I think she is live

underneath at least if not for the win.

Race 6: 6 - 8 - 4

The sixth is the most interesting race on the card in my opinion, with many likely

winners. With that in mind, I landed on the #6 Camp Daddy (4-1) for Armando

Hernandez and the red-hot Julio Felix. The last race at the allowance level certainly was

an eye-catching performance winning by seven lengths, but for me it was even more

impressive as I am not sure it is what he is best at. He went straight to the front and

never looked back; however, I do not think he is a “need the lead” type by any means.

The shipper looks for two straight at Hawthorne after running at Churchill, Keeneland,

Oaklawn and Fairgrounds throughout the fall and winter. As for underneath, the yearly

Chicago staple #8 Readthecliffnotes and the other invader #4 Ardanwood for hometown

connections in Hugh Robertson definitely have the numbers to win but will need to work

out a favorable trip.

Race 7: 7 - 2 - 5

For the penultimate race on the card, there looks to be another horse that looks to have

a very favorable pace scenario. That horse is my top pick, the #7 Hurts So Bad (6-1)

for Antonio Meraz. On top of the pace scenario, 6-1 is a very fair price on a horse with

competitive back numbers and a decent record at Hawthorne. Going to take a shot with

this one, however the #2 Maqamat and the #5 Jrue Breeze make a ton of sense as well

if the pace scenario does not materialize for #7 Hurts So Bad.

Race 8: 5 - 9 - 4

For the final race this Sunday, we end with a competitive $6,250 maiden claimer with

eleven carded horses. With that said, however, there is a pretty big favorite coming over

from Turfway Park with very competitive numbers in this field. I am going to end the day

with this horse, the #5 Secession (7-5) for a trainer in Jimmy Watkins who has started

the meet with some runners winning at 27%. This horse looks very versatile on paper,

and in a race where there are a lot of horses that do not like to pass, this might be the

one to sit a good trip and pick up the pieces late. The #9 Sendemdowntheroad for Larry

Rivelli needs to be taken into consideration as many of Rivelli’s horses need to be on

the Illinois circuit. A decent working line, Rivelli winning at 26% with firsters on the

Chicago circuit in the last five years and 40% overall so far at Hawthorne this meet is

enough for me to throw him in second.

P 4 Kneedeep N custard 2 Paycheck 1 American Trademark

T 6 Phantom Tom 1 Rattling Pine 4 Up Helly

P 4 Sporty Deal 7 Mac Anover 6 Noblight

P 2 Chatty Devon 4 Peppermint Mocha 5 Molly Kool

P 6 Coop A Loop 4 Mach Le More 1 I’m A Soldier

T 3 Trix And Stones 5 Doc’s Spirit 6 Don’t Take My Keys

P 6 Bronx Seelster 3 Record Machine 4 Joker Rockwell

P 7 Liteningonthebeach 5 Elver Hanover 1 One Last Laugh

P 9 Aplin Hanover 1 Pickled Preacher 4 Print Media

P 1 Wiggle My Cookie 5 Royaltys Dreamer 4 Fiftyshadesofbliss

P 8 Kilowatt Kid 1 Louie The Horse 4 One Off Delight

P 4 Roll With Jr 3 Mikimoto 1 Beach Forecast

P 4 Victoriousbluechip 7 Deciding Factor 1 Nachodragon

P 5 Tap Tap Tap 1 Catch Me Conrad 6 The Golden Jet

P 6 He Can Fly 5 Big Bretta 8 Andale Andale

7 Xena 6 Loupit 2 Vinobello

6 Museum Quality 8 Nick Jagger 3 Thanks Frank

3 Lofty Heights 7 Tiff With Jimmy 2 Hayek

8 Hightail Cowboy 2 Colonel Barton 9 Reup

1 Loveland 5 Ruby Queen 8 Grand Prairie Gal

10 Patton’s Tizzy 5 Andy’s Candy 1 Landlord

4 Fashion Ridge 10 Summer Shoes 6 Lets Declare Peace

1 Nyquick 10 Silver Heist 9 Unload

9 Snow Flurry 2 Hot Shot Shopper 8 Kantirun