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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri May 10th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 THANKS FRANK exits some of the more competitive races into this field and subtle change in par for this event. He finds that class change on this circuit with consistent form out of OP that should translate here and perhaps even some intent in a subtle second start of the cycle. 

#8 CHARGE THE CASTLE does not hold any strong edge in this field, however, appears live first off the claim and drop from the 56-day break. They hold a start over this course from back in November in MSW company from the outside post in a productive event and with upside since, though even running back to that debut effort fits on par for this level. 

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 12:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 FITZPATRICK should be flying under the radar for the connections and off the recent running lines and finishing positions. That includes an EX - EXCUSE returning from the layoff last month at KEE showing BTL run through TROUBLE at the higher claiming level.

#2 THE QUEENS JULES has some reservations with the pattern of layoff lines at the same time could be the controlling speed in this field back to their top form and with the post position. Intent could follow with Geroux back aboard, a rider that has has suggest in the past. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 SONG BRIDGE is worth taking a stab with making some changes for this event. She is just one of a pair of 4yo fillies in this field with recency in this second start of the cycle and cutting back to the ONE_TURN could present a further positive. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 FORT THOMAS comes back from a BTL effort last month at KEE and overall foundation that fits here. #5 TELESCOPIC is "less obvious" from that 4/6 common race though one that has shown improvement with racing, run in spots and arguably has yet to show their best and picks up a massive rider change today and at the longer odds is given consideration. 

#7 DJANGO is one of the more established and could be taken as a "desperation" move to the turf in this 9th start and coming up short at shorter odds. From a physical standpoint they present as a TURF horse and the surface switch could have been what they were looking for all along. 

#3 SHALLUS caught a solid group in their debut and giving up recency on the day in that field. They were also expecting to race on the turf, the surface of today's race and upside given the experience and the first start dynamics to step up of that race for a barn that has been sending out live runners to start the meet. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

There are knocks on #5 MIDNIGHT RAID and #6 HURRY HURRY as the projected first and second betting choices in this field. 

Even #3 NEXT LEVEL a good horse that has upgrade and placed in a reasonable spot to compete requires the right number to play and a touch short with the 3-1 assignment. 

#4 SINGLE DOT YAHT presents upside from their sophomore campaign including a competitive effort at this level and two turn distance over this course back on 11/17 making a MOVE through TRAFFIC. This will be their second start of the cycle and given a flow upgrade from the KEE race three weeks ago. 

#1 KISSALOT has some class concerns though looking to compensate with their early speed combined with the rail draw though can be kept honest with sophomore #2 KITTY HAWK to their outside. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 TIMELESS BOUNTY is a tough horse to assess based on the ambitious placement in his career prior to the layoff, though given the ML the price compensation should be there and then some. The return effort at TAM (2/17) was strong in a race with a similar par and productive race with three next out (four total) allowance winners and the field as a whole holding their form. 

Santa Anita Race 8

Post Time 6:37 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 SHARP RIDE has some hurdles in this spot though presents value holding overall upside and can step to compete here. She broke her maiden on debut almost a year ago and came back last month off the long layoff in all signs pointing to PREP.  She will shift to the grass for the first time though appears versatile and coming back today with a rider upgrade as A. Ayuso has been riding lights out.