Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 MAHONEY ROAD has held their form coming into Hawthorne from Oaklawn and “trips” out in AR. They had legit TROUBLE+ in the January show finish and was coming forward from that race with an improved effort last month and lands here under similar claiming conditions with a softer par to move up naturally.

#3 HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC comes in as one of two for V. Litfin and with the controlling speed of the layoff returning pair. They are no expected to be alone in that role assessing OptixPLOT though should be commanding in that position even with #5 GIMME THE CANDY in the field. By contrast, #7 ANCIENT MAN could be assisted by today’s race dynamic with a run from off the pace. A top effort is required back at this $25k level, though on an every other pattern and keying off the BTL on 4/13 can put them in for a minor share. 

Starting the analysis with #5 WEST ISLAND one that is likely to gather a fair share of public attention and should play a role in this race with their early speed. Looking at the Plot, their position above the ParLine has some advantages though combined with the “Fire” Contention they must earn it here and could be tougher on the win end, especially given the presence of #2 CHARLIE LIGHTNING in this field.

#4 U S HONOUR NAP could find the right trip and on a progressive (improving OptixGRADE) pattern, though still requires a top effort. #6 NEW DICE exits the 4/20 common race and coming off a layoff that day could be in their form cycle pattern to take a step forward and holds some of the higher back numbers of the two and in line with many in this field.

#3 TEA WITH LEMON needs a lot in his favor with his deep closing (Quad IV) runstyle, though another that could move up second off, finds subtle class relief with the lower par from 4/28 and the effort clearing the N2 condition fits right in line as a top contender. 

There is no reason to suggest #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT cannot run back to the winning effort from last out and hold at this level once again on the quest for back-to-back wins. He fits today’s par and on form and especially today’s race shape, a strong Square center of the Plot. #2 WICKED SURPRISE is right there on “trip” and one that could move up naturally at this level with the class drop as shown by those visuals.

Those two require the “Fire” Contention as presented on the Plot that includes 2-3 of the Quad I runners above the ParLine playing a role in the 43 SpeedRate and should be honest with #5 BLURT in the field and #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE at the rail. 

This is a quality competitive group with the case to be made for many of the individuals. It could come down to “pace makes the race” with “Fire” Contention and cluster of horses around Quad I/II. That scenario can assist #4 CORTESE one that has held his form here this season pairing B- OptixGRADE and CLOSE in the two starts this season just due for a “trip” and racing luck.

Surface/Distance and overall race record is noted for #2 SHACKLEFORD STRONG one that is a tough racehorse and given a ton of respect here. He is part of that “Fire” today and from the inside, a subtle change trip will be key for O. Hernandez. Any tactical decision could impact the race for #3 RICHIESONAROLL as he comes into this race as advertised looking to keep his allowance string rolling.

#1 GO EMI must also be considered in this race as he makes his second start (PREP) from the extended 441-day layoff and does hold a win at this condition, course however at the route distance from December 2021. 

#5 ESSENTIAL BELLA has a look right back and coming back from a credible place finish in her local debut last month. She had to chase the “LONE” winner, #3 PLAY TWENTY one that does not project to find the same scenario here looking at the Plot and kept honest by #8 COOKIN ROSES.

The change in class moves up #6 PALACE MAGIC as the “new face” at this level. The move appear the right one as she has not shown much improvement or what is needed to compete at the higher level. With that said, she will require all the changes here to return to her better races to win. Her run style should suit today’s race dynamic (Sun, higher 75 SpeedRate) from Quad II.

Going back to the 4/20 common race, #5 IZEONDEC presented as the horse to beat, and a similar case can be made here with a similar Plot position and race shape holding his form into this event. The early pace should be honest with the Quad I trio all above the ParLine (including #4 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY) with IZEONDEC looking to make first run. He had a similar “first run” though was not enough to hold off the late closing, Perfumer to the wire. #7 STOLICH could play “Perfumer” here with a similar strong late kick and current form. They will stretch back out to a route and upside with that move in this second start of the cycle and should have the edge on #8 BRODY’S FLY looking to make a similar off-the-pace run.

#6 ARMAVIR still could be a race out, though could consider using at the right number. He has upside from the races last year and should hold plenty of fitness given the X_WIDE trip racing NO_PUSH coming off the bench last month. 

The Rivelli pair have recorded the higher figures in the field with upside present and given to #10 RAVIN’S TOWN over #6 GAVEL even with the shift to the turf. At a price would use as much #8 MIDTERM one that caught the eye in his debut closing week and since moved up race to rate and should be sitting on a peak effort in this spot and no issues with this one making the move to the turf.

All three of the inside FTS could be live: #1 LICENSE TO STEAL makes their debut off steady works in capable, live hands. #2 BRIT BLITZ will make a belated debut, one that has been on track working as of late and was training locally last summer. #4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE will also make a belated debut as they have been entered twice looking for a turf race at the FG; they were scratched with the surface switch on 3/6 and unable to draw in off the AE right back in the entries on 3/16. 

#5 CARL G finds some class relief on this circuit and with the lower par from the recent races at TP. He has held his form and numbers this season and should transfer those numbers back to the dirt in this local debut. The class change alone could have them sit closer than the race on 3/29 (also impacted by the SLOG) and regardless should have pace given the complexion of this field and with their recently required stablemate, the pacesetting #6 ALYANAABI.

#8 PINBALLER shown in Quad I moves up today with the class change and participating in the early pace on 4/13. They shift to an outside post here and could fall into a favorable stalking trip.

#1 MON AMI FUZZIE returned a “winning” B effort under similar conditions and Plot position with the place finish back in February. Landing on the other side of the three together at the wire that day would not have them eligible for this condition and since has held his form with the two April starts noting the lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines.  Their Plot position is similar if not upgraded by comparison to the #4 CHRISTMAS PRESENT one that has held their form and looking for some racing luck on the win end in the fourth start in as many rider changes this season.

#10 STAR OF KODIAK is a longshot to make a case for. They will be giving up recency coming off the 262-day layoff though should hold price compensation. The recent form of the turf could be dismissed and returning to the dirt where they lack a strong record in terms of outcome. However, context matters; and his dirt races were contested at a higher level and consistent figures that stack up on par at this claiming class. #11 D’ARCHER also returns off the layoff and there are some questions with the time off and trip from the outside, though if race ready, looking at the Plot, their runstyle fits today’s race shape.