Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 ICE AXE is the horse to beat. Graded he has had many chances to clear the maiden conditions this will be his first time at this level. Assessing his form over the others he stands out and given many trips along the way is overdue. Perez has started to heat up as of late racing horses into shape and also entering #3 LAUREATE; one that must step up in the company of this field though has shown improvement and some run in spots.

#2 MY TENNIS SHOES should present value with ICE AXE one that has the 4/21 race at this level and consistent figures that fit on par with the foundation back around two turns. 

A longshot case for #4 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR has been made in the allowance races this season, a contender case can be made here. As far as the races this season, he was not quite to the level for the top spot, each effort was credible and should move up naturally here. Going back to 3/31 made a MOVE through TRAFFIC and following a WIDE MOVE with an improved B- OptixGRADE (shown in Past 3 Runlines) in the 4/21 event. Going back further to the race last July (7/13), that race under a similar $25k conditional claiming event he turned in a “winning” (B) race hitting the wire first though DQ’d for herding a rival. 

Arguably this is a better Six Pack than the track recorded by Black Flag in 1981 with the competitive group of fillies and mares. The race shape is just as competitive with many quick to the lead types and game in that role. #1 KAELY’S SISTER being one of those that has been on the improve coming back off the layoff and joining the Rivelli barn. She has yet to run back to her top in this current form cycle and with some confidence coming off a win would be no shock to repeat. #5 OFF RAMP could bring in another Black Flag reference and sit the right trip in this field. She is unlikely to engage with the early pace and sit back to make her run. She comes into this race third off the layoff with a progressive pattern exiting the higher purse ($140-$80k) events at Oaklawn that translate on this circuit and field. 

#7 LEIPZIG has a class edge making the transition to this circuit. She will trade that for recency in this first start back of the extended 302-day layoff. #1 GOLDEN STORM also fits from a class standpoint (and versatile to run back on the dirt should that come into play) with the edge on recency. She was claimed for $7.5k back in March at TP and “given” the allowance start last month as a transition to this circuit and keeping up her conditioning. Trip wise that will be key and also an asset with Giles gaining familiarity last out and back up today.

In terms of the early pace, Felix should take up the chase on the lead with #8 ALEXANDRA’S SONG as she stretching out first off the claim and bringing in sprint speed. She is not alone in that role though her presence forced those others to stay honest up front.

#5 JOCELYN is the value play. That compensation should hold as she steps up off a strong maiden win three weeks ago. Her races over the turf stack up as well as any and her visuals (TURF) following the dirt races suggest she can move up right back on the grass. 

Looking to separate the T. Young runners, #1 DOUBLE THUNDER has the strong Plot edge over #5 GITA’S LAD in this spot. The two project to take part in the “Sun” Contention, a scenario that assists morning line favorite, #8 BEEALEA though could as much #7 FIRST MASAMUNE one that could be the longest shot in this field, an overlay in that role and projected longer odds than #2 STRONGER TOGETHER with similar Plot shape and position.

Far from the “most likely” winner, FIRST MASAMUNE coming into this race with upside on the stretch out in distance for this second start off the layoff. This is a step up in class from the recent two starts, though a lateral move from the races throughout the bulk of their career.

The distance change back to a route in the first time in a longtime is a notable change for #4 TRY TRY AGAIN one that otherwise fits at this level and in this portion of their form cycle – DROP, PREP Projection of the layoff three weeks ago. Further intent appears in play with O. Hernandez taking over and at the least one to include as they could have some impact on the outcome. 

Looking at the Plot and even with the “Fire” Contention #6 D’ ARCHER could find the right trip returning fit off the layoff. He had been effective on this circuit under similar conditions for V. Childers and E. Esquivel coming off a strong OP meet aboard this returnee is notable. His Plot position is similar to the in-form #8 RISKY BOY and arguably a touch stronger than #3 BREAKING NEWS in comparison for today’s event.

The 9yo #2 PERFECT WAGER wheels back in one less day than his age for this race and could be some intent back upstate at the higher level here. He showed up on a quick turnaround earlier in the season and projected to improve back around ONE_TURN and unable to get their trip (4/6) that day improved with a sneaky good run at FD on 4/20 followed up with a NO_PUSH on 5/4. Stablemate #5 CHICKS FOR FREE will return to a sprint for the first time in this cycle and since last October. He fits on his best day and at this distance and by the Plot, even this race shape with the recency edge over #1 IDEA MAN. 

Recognizing the connections for #1 COMMAND POINT, a capable type in this race should be short and must return to a top effort off the layoff, things to weight in terms of value in this full field. Especially giving up recency and recency on both #6 LEA RO and #7 ECONOMIC HANGOVER the two have recorded some of the higher figures in this field on par with COMMAND POINT.

In terms of trip and with the AE/MTO out of the race dynamic, #10 APRIL’S GEM comes into this race in-form and has been looking for that return to the TURF they find here. The mile distance can be a stretch for her though could be the time to take a shot as she has the recency and intent for this race. #11 SUMMER DAY also has shown some distance limitations though a better fit back at the flat mile. She will return off the layoff today with Mojica, the win rider and TACTIC+ ride for the win last Summer. #9 SENSE OF SELF could move up with a trip in that scenario with the layoff being the major concenter.

#7 BOONE’S PATH returns for live connections off the layoff and could be dismissed on the distance change. He has spent the majority of his career around two turns though could have been a SPRINTER all along. His sprint races here from back in late 2022 were all competitive at the MSW level and keeping in mind those races were all during the sophomore campaign.

#6 ELI’S PROMISE has recorded some of the higher figures in this field with back class on his side. With that said there was not much excuse on 3/31 perhaps if one can be forgiving as the layoff was in play though still must show back up with a top for the top spot.

#1 CALL ME ICE MAN has some back class, and the connections took the drop at TAM to regain some confidence. Without a claim following those starts, the connections kept him protected off the win and fit with the WIDE trip that day as they show up 44-days fresh for this race and protected once again.

Despite the Plot visuals #5 VALIANT WEST will get the eye-test edge over #8 BEEASY coming back from the 4/21 allowance as BEEEASY with a favorable ground saving trip came up short (another with a layoff excuse?) behind the GRIT-ty BOS place finish from VALIANT WEST. 

#1 OFF THE LAM has been given a follow since her debut at OP when distanced though without ask (NO_PUSH) after a TROUBLE_S and backed that up with the WIDE trip only three weeks later. She has been freshened since those two starts and the shift to the turf suggests intent (though has a look on the main as well) noting she was entered unable to draw in off the AE in a TURF MSW on 4/18 at KEE.

#2 DIAMONDS JOY earned a solid figure on debut to suggest she fits at this level on this circuit. She did not fare as well with the stretch out in the two following turf starts though with the rail draw and pacesetter in both was given a flow-upgrade. #3 ANQA also has been intended for the grass keying off a couple of entries earlier this month at HS Indy. She showed some run on debut at TP and in a race that has held form including two MSW winners last month at CD and KEE, respectively.

#8 BOLTORO comes in from KEE when facing winners last month and appeared they were looking for the longer distance more than anything else. She has the most established form and some of the higher figures in this field, though many of those at just longer than a mile though the circuit change provides a massive equalizer.

As a longshot in this field: #11 REALISTIC GOAL was pointed to the turf and route distance following the pair of sprints last summer though was unable to draw into those two grass events before the layoff. She returned from that layoff last month and had to be encouraged by the effort; following the SLOG she made a strong CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire.