Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 2 McWicked Time 5 Nijinsky 1 Warraweeforlaura

P 1 Wheels On Fire 4 Dragononthebeach 9 Command

P 3 Saulsbrook Ian 8 Southwind Sambucca 4 Nazare

T 9 Sue Anna 5 Willys Home Run 3 R Liza

P 4 Pass Line 1 Coco Jo Jo 6 Sorcha Seelster

T 4 Convoy Hall 5 Elegant Resolve 1 Soar Higher

P 3 Funtime Bayama 10 Storm Shadow 7 Wikipedia

P 4 Onyx Bovino 1 Watching Sunset 3 Price Control

P 7 Emmetts Buddy 6 Linedrive Hanover 5 Saulsbrook Victor

P 6 Ario Hanover 4 Codename Cigar Box 2 Rockabilly Rebel

P 6 Tarquinus Hanover 2 Sergeant Slaughter 5 Tricky McWicky

P 9 Leave It To Leo 3 Bob Loblaw 2 Smokestack

#1 MAHONEY ROAD has held their form coming into Hawthorne from Oaklawn and “trips” out in AR. They had legit TROUBLE+ in the January show finish and was coming forward from that race with an improved effort last month and lands here under similar claiming conditions with a softer par to move up naturally.

#3 HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC comes in as one of two for V. Litfin and with the controlling speed of the layoff returning pair. They are no expected to be alone in that role assessing OptixPLOT though should be commanding in that position even with #5 GIMME THE CANDY in the field. By contrast, #7 ANCIENT MAN could be assisted by today’s race dynamic with a run from off the pace. A top effort is required back at this $25k level, though on an every other pattern and keying off the BTL on 4/13 can put them in for a minor share. 

Starting the analysis with #5 WEST ISLAND one that is likely to gather a fair share of public attention and should play a role in this race with their early speed. Looking at the Plot, their position above the ParLine has some advantages though combined with the “Fire” Contention they must earn it here and could be tougher on the win end, especially given the presence of #2 CHARLIE LIGHTNING in this field.

#4 U S HONOUR NAP could find the right trip and on a progressive (improving OptixGRADE) pattern, though still requires a top effort. #6 NEW DICE exits the 4/20 common race and coming off a layoff that day could be in their form cycle pattern to take a step forward and holds some of the higher back numbers of the two and in line with many in this field.

#3 TEA WITH LEMON needs a lot in his favor with his deep closing (Quad IV) runstyle, though another that could move up second off, finds subtle class relief with the lower par from 4/28 and the effort clearing the N2 condition fits right in line as a top contender. 

There is no reason to suggest #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT cannot run back to the winning effort from last out and hold at this level once again on the quest for back-to-back wins. He fits today’s par and on form and especially today’s race shape, a strong Square center of the Plot. #2 WICKED SURPRISE is right there on “trip” and one that could move up naturally at this level with the class drop as shown by those visuals.

Those two require the “Fire” Contention as presented on the Plot that includes 2-3 of the Quad I runners above the ParLine playing a role in the 43 SpeedRate and should be honest with #5 BLURT in the field and #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE at the rail. 

This is a quality competitive group with the case to be made for many of the individuals. It could come down to “pace makes the race” with “Fire” Contention and cluster of horses around Quad I/II. That scenario can assist #4 CORTESE one that has held his form here this season pairing B- OptixGRADE and CLOSE in the two starts this season just due for a “trip” and racing luck.

Surface/Distance and overall race record is noted for #2 SHACKLEFORD STRONG one that is a tough racehorse and given a ton of respect here. He is part of that “Fire” today and from the inside, a subtle change trip will be key for O. Hernandez. Any tactical decision could impact the race for #3 RICHIESONAROLL as he comes into this race as advertised looking to keep his allowance string rolling.

#1 GO EMI must also be considered in this race as he makes his second start (PREP) from the extended 441-day layoff and does hold a win at this condition, course however at the route distance from December 2021. 

#5 ESSENTIAL BELLA has a look right back and coming back from a credible place finish in her local debut last month. She had to chase the “LONE” winner, #3 PLAY TWENTY one that does not project to find the same scenario here looking at the Plot and kept honest by #8 COOKIN ROSES.

The change in class moves up #6 PALACE MAGIC as the “new face” at this level. The move appear the right one as she has not shown much improvement or what is needed to compete at the higher level. With that said, she will require all the changes here to return to her better races to win. Her run style should suit today’s race dynamic (Sun, higher 75 SpeedRate) from Quad II.

Going back to the 4/20 common race, #5 IZEONDEC presented as the horse to beat, and a similar case can be made here with a similar Plot position and race shape holding his form into this event. The early pace should be honest with the Quad I trio all above the ParLine (including #4 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY) with IZEONDEC looking to make first run. He had a similar “first run” though was not enough to hold off the late closing, Perfumer to the wire. #7 STOLICH could play “Perfumer” here with a similar strong late kick and current form. They will stretch back out to a route and upside with that move in this second start of the cycle and should have the edge on #8 BRODY’S FLY looking to make a similar off-the-pace run.

#6 ARMAVIR still could be a race out, though could consider using at the right number. He has upside from the races last year and should hold plenty of fitness given the X_WIDE trip racing NO_PUSH coming off the bench last month. 

The Rivelli pair have recorded the higher figures in the field with upside present and given to #10 RAVIN’S TOWN over #6 GAVEL even with the shift to the turf. At a price would use as much #8 MIDTERM one that caught the eye in his debut closing week and since moved up race to rate and should be sitting on a peak effort in this spot and no issues with this one making the move to the turf.

All three of the inside FTS could be live: #1 LICENSE TO STEAL makes their debut off steady works in capable, live hands. #2 BRIT BLITZ will make a belated debut, one that has been on track working as of late and was training locally last summer. #4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE will also make a belated debut as they have been entered twice looking for a turf race at the FG; they were scratched with the surface switch on 3/6 and unable to draw in off the AE right back in the entries on 3/16. 

#5 CARL G finds some class relief on this circuit and with the lower par from the recent races at TP. He has held his form and numbers this season and should transfer those numbers back to the dirt in this local debut. The class change alone could have them sit closer than the race on 3/29 (also impacted by the SLOG) and regardless should have pace given the complexion of this field and with their recently required stablemate, the pacesetting #6 ALYANAABI.

#8 PINBALLER shown in Quad I moves up today with the class change and participating in the early pace on 4/13. They shift to an outside post here and could fall into a favorable stalking trip.

#1 MON AMI FUZZIE returned a “winning” B effort under similar conditions and Plot position with the place finish back in February. Landing on the other side of the three together at the wire that day would not have them eligible for this condition and since has held his form with the two April starts noting the lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines.  Their Plot position is similar if not upgraded by comparison to the #4 CHRISTMAS PRESENT one that has held their form and looking for some racing luck on the win end in the fourth start in as many rider changes this season.

#10 STAR OF KODIAK is a longshot to make a case for. They will be giving up recency coming off the 262-day layoff though should hold price compensation. The recent form of the turf could be dismissed and returning to the dirt where they lack a strong record in terms of outcome. However, context matters; and his dirt races were contested at a higher level and consistent figures that stack up on par at this claiming class. #11 D’ARCHER also returns off the layoff and there are some questions with the time off and trip from the outside, though if race ready, looking at the Plot, their runstyle fits today’s race shape. 

Kick off the day with a solid sprint field as there appears to be a decent amount of pace in the race. If it is contested upfront, 1-MAHONEY ROAD looks to get the perfect setup. He comes off three solid efforts at Oaklawn, including his last where he ran on well from the rail draw. Rosin comes in ready to run as I expect a big weekend from this barn. 6-ALIBI IKE has tactical speed as he gets his second shot at this level. He had a rough start in his last and never recovered. With clear sailing in here he may be worth a look at a price. 5-GIMME THE CANDY is well spotted off a nice maiden score in his last. He made the top in that spot and picked up the pace after a slow opening quarter, holding sway for the victory. If he tries to go early in here, he may find some company on the front end.

There's not much speed in here as likely favorite 5-WEST ISLAND looks to be very tough in this spot. He chased a very fast pace in his last and ran on well for place. I expect he can make the lead in here and not have to work too hard to clear. 7-SOVIET STANDARD looks to rate the closest to the pace as his best shot to win will likely come with a stalking trip. He improved in his second start of the meet and could try to reel in West Island late. 2-CHARLIE LIGHTNING makes his second start off the claim as he comes in from Tampa for today's race. He did break his maiden on the front end at Gulfstream last fall but it appears there are others in here more likely to show better gate speed.

The Jose Rodriguez barn has been having an excellent meet as he sends 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT out today. This is a good spot as he faced similar in his last and was given a perfect trip by Giles in that race. With the speed of Blurt and Midnight Blue Note in here, he should be able to track the leaders early and run on late. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE made the top last out and never looked back, posting a solid figure for that performance. He has had success on all surfaces and looks to be a factor once again, but this time likely at a shorter price.

A really competitive bunch in here as the key to the race will be if Faithful Ruler tries to go with Richiesonaroll early. If those two hook up, 2-SHACKLEFORD STRONG should get the perfect setup once again as he looks to repeat the performance from his last start. He tracked the leaders early in that spot and battled the length of the lane, holding on for the win. The same could happen again. 4-CORTESE was running on late in that same race as he came up a bit short at the wire. The barn has been having a fine meet and the potential for a more contested early pace could work in his favor. 3-RICHIESONAROLL was a good winner in his last as he was able to stalk the pace and rally to the win. This bunch is tougher today but you cannot discount his fine recent form.

This is a fun race as I'm glad we are seeing horses go the 1 1/16 miles. There's not a ton of pace in here which could help the chances of 1-PALHACO to try to clear from the inside and control things on the front end. He ran a much improved race in his last and this is a barn that has heated up in recent weeks. 5-IZEONDEC will need that pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and make one run in the lane. He rallied late for place in his last too but is another the runs for a barn that is having a good meet. 4-HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY was a good maiden winner in his first start of the meet and ran a respectable race last out. He has enough speed to contend early and looks to have enough stamina to hang around late.

Fingers crossed this is our first turf race of the season with the hopes we remain on the grass. A full field that is quite competitive should have its share of early pace.  Giving the nod to 8-MIDTERM as he has worked well toward his second start of the meet and ran a decent race first out. The move to turf could benefit his chances as a wide closing move may be a winning move. 10-RAVIN'S TOWN looks to be the horse to beat off his two races to open his career. He battled in his last behind a solid winner and held well through the wire. Expect him to be on the gas from the start in here. 7-KING OF THE PALACE has the most experience of any in here and has held his own on the grass. He handled a course that had some give to it two back and if this one stays on, he will likely get very similar conditions.

Let's shoot for some prices in the last as there isn't a ton of pace in this race. Thinking 9-HURTS SO BAD could be quick enough to the front as he showed speed in his last before giving way late. I don't expect he will be pushed along as much early on today as he may be able to catch a breather and run on late. 8-PINBALLER is the other with some speed in here as he chased in a tough race last out. His best races seem to come from just off the early pace as he could look to sit off the flank of Hurts So Bad in this spot. 3-VIOLENT GIGI doesn't look that great on paper, but those races at Oaklawn were much tougher than what you find in here. He comes off a bit of a layoff into this spot but races for a barn that has had a tremendous start to the year.

5-GIMME THE CANDY isn’t the only speed and not even sure he’s the best but his two dirt races were very good. He wired the field in last and just missed in his debut. Throw out the turf race that was contested in between. Might be able to put away the rest of the speed and finish with something left. 1-MAHONEY ROAD has been racing against good company at Oaklawn. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but believe he’ll be flying late and can roll by them all. 3-HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC is hard to gauge. He had two terrific races at Canterbury, generating some of the highest speed figures of any in here, but the races were against Minnesota breds, he hasn’t raced since August, and there is plenty of other speed in here. 4-SECESSION is an interesting runner. He’s taking a huge jump in class after getting claimed from last but he simply crushed the field in that last race and he was claimed from one torrid trainer by another.

There seems to be three logical contenders in this race. I went with 7-SOVIET STANDARD. He’s making his third start of the meet and should finally be at the top of his game. He does seem like the only one of the three that can close a bit. Might run down tiring speed. 5-WEST ISLAND is fresh off a good second-place finish. However, he tired late in his recent races and the longer distance of this race could work against him. 2-CHARLIE LIGHTNING drops in class. Interestingly, he was claimed at Tampa two starts back, ran one race for that new barn, and then transferred to this group despite the other barn having a presence at this meet. Especially don’t like only one workout in the two months since his most recent race.

The pace of this race should set up well for 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT. The winner of last takes on a bit tougher in this spot but his barn is on fire and his rider has been riding extremely well. The speed figures for this runner are incredibly consistent and they rate among the highest of any in here. If the contested pace does develop, he should have dead late. 2-WICKED SURPRISE takes a much-needed drop in class. He showed little at Gulfstream over the winter and was majorly outclassed in his first start of the year but he has traditionally done well on this racetrack and with the drop to the right level, he figures to wake up big time. 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE enjoys good speed and comes off a wire-to-wire victory. However, this 11-year-old is taking on a somewhat tougher group today and many of his rivals are also front-running types. Not sure he’ll be able to hold off the other speed in the early stages of the race and still have enough left to hold off top pick late.

Great race. Almost every runner has a legitimate chance to win this. But have to go with the hot hand. 3-RICHIESONAROLL is fresh off a victory over similar runners. He was claimed for $12,500 last June and since then has been on quite a roll. He finished second in his first two starts for this barn and then won three of his next four, losing only in a Grade 3 stakes at Keeneland. He’s capable of winning on or off the pace and is likely to be tough either way. 2-SHACKLEFORD STRONG figures prominently. He’s another former low-level claimer, he was running in $6250 claimers a year ago, that has gone on to become an accomplished runner. He’s been victorious in seven of his 11 local races, including last. 4-CORTESE isn’t quite as accomplished as the top pair but he possesses a strong closing move and could easily be a late factor.

Don’t really “like” 6-PALACE MAGIC but she does look like the only real closer in a field featuring an abundance of early speed. The drop in class is a great help. Might be able to surprise. 3-PLAY TWENTY can win right back, though she’s certainly no lock. She was able to wire the field in last, relatively unchallenged the entire race. However, this field is overflowing with early speed and some, although not in good form, appear to be quicker than she and she has not done well when she doesn’t get the lead quickly. Not sure what to make of 1-AVARSARALA. Last year she was racing competitively in allowance fields and now, after a year-long layoff, she’s in the basement. Her works give away little. If she has anything left, she’s the quickest of these, but she might be just a shadow of her former self.

On paper, it would appear that 4-IZEONDEC is the one to beat. However, he has a severe case of “seconditis”. I really can’t find anyone that seems capable of beating him but can’t give a strong recommendation to bet him to win. A place bet might be safer. 8-BRODY’S FLY takes on a bit easier and takes blinkers off. He’s one of the few in here seemingly capable of making a late move.7-STOLICH could be worth a look. He’s certainly not quick but his one and only win came the last time he was stretched out from a sprint to a route. 

Not sure this race will stay on the lawn but figure 10-RAVIN’S TOWN will be tough on either surface. He displayed good speed in both of his races, both on dirt. He appeared to be well on his way to victory in his last start but got passed late. Still, he was well clear of the rest of the field. Might hold them all safe today. 8-MIDTERM finished a distant third in his first start of the meet. He was three lengths behind Ravin’s Town at the finish, though over five lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher. He’s been gelded since that race and adds blinkers for this. We know he’ll be competitive on dirt and his barn’s turf success and his own pedigree suggests that he’ll do every bit as well on the lawn. 1-LICENSE TO STEAL makes his debut. Debut runners from his barn don’t win at a high percentage but the barn does win with about 26% turf sprinters. 

1-MON AMIE FUZZIE drops. He finished second by a head the only time he raced at the $5k claiming level. He should have dead aim late. Not in love with 3-VIOLENT GIGI but he has been meeting a bit tougher while racing in Arkansas. He finished third the last time he raced here in August. Might be able to do at least as well today. 4-CHRISTMAS PRESENT just finished second. Think he’s better going long but that second-place finish was at this distance. 5-CARL G has been in great form at Turfway on synthetic but his most recent form on dirt wasn’t nearly as good.8-PINBALLER meets possibly his easiest field ever. He backed up badly in his last three races but could finish with a little more in reserve in this easier field.

Race 5:  8 - 6 - 5

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,5,6,8 / 4,5,8 / 1,3,4,10 / 4  ($30)

This is a strange race. There's plenty of early speed, so one would think I'd be looking for a closer. The problem is I don't see any quality horses who like to finish late. So, I'll take the speed of the speed with the outside horse, the #8 Cookin Roses (6-1). If she clears from the outside or simply breaks well, she'll be tough to handle. Consistent, honest, and in great form...look for her to be cookin' early....big-time spread race to open Late Pick 4.

Race 6:  4 - 5 - 8

Many are facing each other again...somewhat of a repeat of the 4/20 race. Then, #1 Palhaco and #2 Minnesota Ready battled themselves into submission. I think they won't be as aggressive today, which might set it up for the #4 Hawaiian Hide Away (7-2), who was one of the lower prices that day. He broke a bit slow, was used on the inside, and made a minor move in the stretch. I think he's better than his last and might offer value today. #5 Izeondec is the ML-fave and vulnerable as he's 1/26 lifetime even though perhaps the most logical.

Race 7:  10 - 3 - 1

Will this be the first turf race of the season? Mother Nature did not cooperate last weekend, but based on the forecast as of this writing, looks like we'll be on the grass today! There are some very interesting first-time starters here, but I'll go with the confirmed speed from the outside for Rivelli, #10 Ravin's Town (7-2). There's turf breeding on the dam side, and his early speed should play very well. He's worked well since his disappointing 2nd place finish a few weeks back, and expect Cohen to send hard and clear from the outside. Don't sleep on #3 Red Rizzler, my Longshot Play of the Day. He broke slow in his debut at Oaklawn and was a non-factor, but he's worked well since and is a half-brother to talented sprint turf stakes horse Bad Beat Brian ($745k-earner).

Race 8:  4 - 1 - 3

Hoping the holidays come early in the last with #4 Christmas Present (5-1). There's much early gas in the two-turn affair, and I'm looking for someone to come from off the pace. I don't love the 3-39 lifetime record, but I do like the jockey upgrade to Julio Felix and believe an improved effort is coming...how much better does he really have to be to win today? It's hard to trust the speed in the finale.