Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 3 Rockin Tj 4 Southern Winds 5 Shared By Me

T 6 Trix And Stones 5 Bold Strategy 1 Manhattanup No Ice

P 9 Ginger Tree Lena 2 Yjuliahos 5 Tally Two

P 6 Birthday 5 Grantmeawish 2 Backinmyday

T 3 Winning Shadow 2 Big Bad Caviar 1 Best Time Hanover

P 3 Diamondtequilashot 1 Dreamfair Helena 2 Devious Dagne

P 7 Camouflage Money 1 Tremendous Play 3 White Hair Rocks 

P 1 B Like Cruiser 7 Kneedeep N Custard 2 Captainofrocknroll 

P 8 Isowantapetrock 3 Pound Sign 9 My Friend Mel

P 1 Meadowbrook Lady 6 Honey Buzz 2 Arroya’s Dance

P 4 Jk Miki Mantle 5 Coop A Loop 8 Louie The Horse

P 1 Cyclone Banner 5 Joker Rockwell 3 Sawyer’s Desire

P 1 Kilowatt Kid 2 Buy In 9 Shell Yeah

P 2 Bettor In Cash 7 Imarealroknbugatti 4 Ranger Alert

P 5 Lucky To Be Sweet 2 Greatest Ending 1 Pickled Preacher 

#4 ICE AXE is the horse to beat. Graded he has had many chances to clear the maiden conditions this will be his first time at this level. Assessing his form over the others he stands out and given many trips along the way is overdue. Perez has started to heat up as of late racing horses into shape and also entering #3 LAUREATE; one that must step up in the company of this field though has shown improvement and some run in spots.

#2 MY TENNIS SHOES should present value with ICE AXE one that has the 4/21 race at this level and consistent figures that fit on par with the foundation back around two turns. 

A longshot case for #4 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR has been made in the allowance races this season, a contender case can be made here. As far as the races this season, he was not quite to the level for the top spot, each effort was credible and should move up naturally here. Going back to 3/31 made a MOVE through TRAFFIC and following a WIDE MOVE with an improved B- OptixGRADE (shown in Past 3 Runlines) in the 4/21 event. Going back further to the race last July (7/13), that race under a similar $25k conditional claiming event he turned in a “winning” (B) race hitting the wire first though DQ’d for herding a rival. 

Arguably this is a better Six Pack than the track recorded by Black Flag in 1981 with the competitive group of fillies and mares. The race shape is just as competitive with many quick to the lead types and game in that role. #1 KAELY’S SISTER being one of those that has been on the improve coming back off the layoff and joining the Rivelli barn. She has yet to run back to her top in this current form cycle and with some confidence coming off a win would be no shock to repeat. #5 OFF RAMP could bring in another Black Flag reference and sit the right trip in this field. She is unlikely to engage with the early pace and sit back to make her run. She comes into this race third off the layoff with a progressive pattern exiting the higher purse ($140-$80k) events at Oaklawn that translate on this circuit and field. 

#7 LEIPZIG has a class edge making the transition to this circuit. She will trade that for recency in this first start back of the extended 302-day layoff. #1 GOLDEN STORM also fits from a class standpoint (and versatile to run back on the dirt should that come into play) with the edge on recency. She was claimed for $7.5k back in March at TP and “given” the allowance start last month as a transition to this circuit and keeping up her conditioning. Trip wise that will be key and also an asset with Giles gaining familiarity last out and back up today.

In terms of the early pace, Felix should take up the chase on the lead with #8 ALEXANDRA’S SONG as she stretching out first off the claim and bringing in sprint speed. She is not alone in that role though her presence forced those others to stay honest up front.

#5 JOCELYN is the value play. That compensation should hold as she steps up off a strong maiden win three weeks ago. Her races over the turf stack up as well as any and her visuals (TURF) following the dirt races suggest she can move up right back on the grass. 

Looking to separate the T. Young runners, #1 DOUBLE THUNDER has the strong Plot edge over #5 GITA’S LAD in this spot. The two project to take part in the “Sun” Contention, a scenario that assists morning line favorite, #8 BEEALEA though could as much #7 FIRST MASAMUNE one that could be the longest shot in this field, an overlay in that role and projected longer odds than #2 STRONGER TOGETHER with similar Plot shape and position.

Far from the “most likely” winner, FIRST MASAMUNE coming into this race with upside on the stretch out in distance for this second start off the layoff. This is a step up in class from the recent two starts, though a lateral move from the races throughout the bulk of their career.

The distance change back to a route in the first time in a longtime is a notable change for #4 TRY TRY AGAIN one that otherwise fits at this level and in this portion of their form cycle – DROP, PREP Projection of the layoff three weeks ago. Further intent appears in play with O. Hernandez taking over and at the least one to include as they could have some impact on the outcome. 

Looking at the Plot and even with the “Fire” Contention #6 D’ ARCHER could find the right trip returning fit off the layoff. He had been effective on this circuit under similar conditions for V. Childers and E. Esquivel coming off a strong OP meet aboard this returnee is notable. His Plot position is similar to the in-form #8 RISKY BOY and arguably a touch stronger than #3 BREAKING NEWS in comparison for today’s event.

The 9yo #2 PERFECT WAGER wheels back in one less day than his age for this race and could be some intent back upstate at the higher level here. He showed up on a quick turnaround earlier in the season and projected to improve back around ONE_TURN and unable to get their trip (4/6) that day improved with a sneaky good run at FD on 4/20 followed up with a NO_PUSH on 5/4. Stablemate #5 CHICKS FOR FREE will return to a sprint for the first time in this cycle and since last October. He fits on his best day and at this distance and by the Plot, even this race shape with the recency edge over #1 IDEA MAN. 

Recognizing the connections for #1 COMMAND POINT, a capable type in this race should be short and must return to a top effort off the layoff, things to weight in terms of value in this full field. Especially giving up recency and recency on both #6 LEA RO and #7 ECONOMIC HANGOVER the two have recorded some of the higher figures in this field on par with COMMAND POINT.

In terms of trip and with the AE/MTO out of the race dynamic, #10 APRIL’S GEM comes into this race in-form and has been looking for that return to the TURF they find here. The mile distance can be a stretch for her though could be the time to take a shot as she has the recency and intent for this race. #11 SUMMER DAY also has shown some distance limitations though a better fit back at the flat mile. She will return off the layoff today with Mojica, the win rider and TACTIC+ ride for the win last Summer. #9 SENSE OF SELF could move up with a trip in that scenario with the layoff being the major concenter.

#7 BOONE’S PATH returns for live connections off the layoff and could be dismissed on the distance change. He has spent the majority of his career around two turns though could have been a SPRINTER all along. His sprint races here from back in late 2022 were all competitive at the MSW level and keeping in mind those races were all during the sophomore campaign.

#6 ELI’S PROMISE has recorded some of the higher figures in this field with back class on his side. With that said there was not much excuse on 3/31 perhaps if one can be forgiving as the layoff was in play though still must show back up with a top for the top spot.

#1 CALL ME ICE MAN has some back class, and the connections took the drop at TAM to regain some confidence. Without a claim following those starts, the connections kept him protected off the win and fit with the WIDE trip that day as they show up 44-days fresh for this race and protected once again.

Despite the Plot visuals #5 VALIANT WEST will get the eye-test edge over #8 BEEASY coming back from the 4/21 allowance as BEEEASY with a favorable ground saving trip came up short (another with a layoff excuse?) behind the GRIT-ty BOS place finish from VALIANT WEST. 

#1 OFF THE LAM has been given a follow since her debut at OP when distanced though without ask (NO_PUSH) after a TROUBLE_S and backed that up with the WIDE trip only three weeks later. She has been freshened since those two starts and the shift to the turf suggests intent (though has a look on the main as well) noting she was entered unable to draw in off the AE in a TURF MSW on 4/18 at KEE.

#2 DIAMONDS JOY earned a solid figure on debut to suggest she fits at this level on this circuit. She did not fare as well with the stretch out in the two following turf starts though with the rail draw and pacesetter in both was given a flow-upgrade. #3 ANQA also has been intended for the grass keying off a couple of entries earlier this month at HS Indy. She showed some run on debut at TP and in a race that has held form including two MSW winners last month at CD and KEE, respectively.

#8 BOLTORO comes in from KEE when facing winners last month and appeared they were looking for the longer distance more than anything else. She has the most established form and some of the higher figures in this field, though many of those at just longer than a mile though the circuit change provides a massive equalizer.

As a longshot in this field: #11 REALISTIC GOAL was pointed to the turf and route distance following the pair of sprints last summer though was unable to draw into those two grass events before the layoff. She returned from that layoff last month and had to be encouraged by the effort; following the SLOG she made a strong CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire. 

This is the start to a really fun card that is very competitive and hopefully we stay on the grass. Looking for an upset to start the day as 6-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT has the potential to upset 4-ICE AXE in here. Manny Esquivel rode here on Sundays last summer and had a lot of success as he returns once again. Anna After Midnight has speed and should improve in her second start around two turns. Let's see if she can clear, back things down, and have enough left in the lane. 4-ICE AXE is the clear one to beat based off speed figures as he hasn't finished worse than 4th in his last nine starts. The problem is he hasn't won over those races yet either. He could completely lay over this field today but at a likely very short price I'll take my chances that the filly can upset him. 2-MY TENNIS SHOES is the other worth a look as he also makes his second start of the meet around two turns. He has tactical speed to rate close and may get the jump on Ice Axe into the lane. The Lopez barn is waking up and the price should be right.

This is one of two races on the card that I had an incredibly tough time making a morning line on. All seven in here can win. Since there's a couple with early speed I'll take my chances on 5-TABLE MONEY as he returns from Oaklawn where he held his own during that very tough meet. He was a good winner three back before stepping up in his last two. His last race was very respectable and I don't think the chartcaller gave him credit for the effort as he was beaten less than three lengths. He should be able to stalk and pounce in here. 2-BALADINE is another that looks to be well spotted as he may sneak away at a bit of a price. He won as the heavy favorite against N2L company for this tag two back and did that on the front end. There's others in here who are faster early which could play to his benefit. 7-STRANGE ARRANGE is a bit of a wildcard in here as he has ability but also needs to avoid hooking up with Larry The Poet on the front end. He was claimed for $13,500 last out but gets into here as many of his victories were for less than $20,000 tags. As a 7-time winner that could hold an advantage over some others.

Another really competitive bunch as there looks to be a quick and contested pace early. Trainer Coty Rosin comes in with a bunch of fit and ready horses from Oaklawn as 5-OFF RAMP is one of those. She has run well in the past over this track and held her own against tougher in her pair of Oaklawn starts. She defeated similar here last summer before running a good third behind a pair of very tough runners in the Jean Elizabeth. In this spot she should be able to settle, save ground, and run on late. 1-KAELY'S SISTER has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She has looked sharp after returning off a long layoff as she won going away in her last. She draws well here as she may look to sit just off the early pace and get the jump on the closers. 3-SHEMEANSBIZNESS is intriguing as she makes her first start of the meet. She has trained well leading into this spot as she runs for a barn that has been sharp with everything they have sent out.

To the turf for the first time on the day as a field of 11 lines up. With the short run into the turn things could get bottled up a bit as horses work for early position. Hoping 1-GOLDEN STORM can settle early and save ground as she makes her second career start on the grass. She was competitive against much tougher maiden company in her only other turf try and showed some late run against allowance runners around two turns in her last. There is some pace in here as we will have to see how she handles a course that will likely be less than firm. 2-WALK SOFTLY poses some price potential as she has done her best running on the grass. She was a bit disappointing after a wide trip in her last but shows some starts earlier last year where she was able to rate close and compete throughout in turf tries. Let's see if she turns things around in here. 7-LEIPZIG gets back to the grass, where she ran some good turf races last spring at Gulfstream. She has been away since last July but has a string of consistent drills toward her return. I don't expect to see much early speed from her but she should be able to rally in the lane.

It could be tough to defeat 3-BREAKING NEWS in here as he has been solid in all three starts. He rated closer in his last and if he goes that route again, I wonder if that pace pressure will get to him. For me I'll look to see if 6-D'ARCHER can upset as he scratched from a spot on Saturday for this race. He has tactical speed and picks up Esquivel in the saddle. This is his first start of the meet but he has worked well toward the return and is at his best at six furlongs. Take nothing away from Breaking News as he is the horse to beat. He likes the track, likes the distance and has been sharp. But in a competitive bunch I'm not sure I want to take a short price on top. 9-ALPINE GHOST ran a good race in his last and he rated closer and ran on late. From the outside draw I expect him to clear off some horse early and find a good position. Let's see how his finishing kick is.

A crazy tough turf race here as you can look in so many different directions. I'll look for a bit of a price and go to 6-LEA RO as she has been solid on the grass throughout her career and finds things a bit easier than what she has faced in recent starts. There's not a ton of pace in this race as she could rate closer early and get the jump on the closers. 10-SUMMER DAY is another that could rate a bit closer as she also finds things much easier. This is her first start of the year as she has put together a string of workouts. She's solid on either surface and fits at the distance. 1-COMMAND POINT has been a model of consistency as she has found the board in all six of her Hawthorne starts. She makes her first start of the year but is another that has worked forwardly toward her return.

Much like race 2, this race was just as hard to make a line for as all of these could win. Trainer Chris Block has a pair in here, both with chances as I'll give the nod to 3-MOONLIGHT ROAD. He was a good winner in his last as he stayed along the rail and drew clear late. The pace ahead of him should be honest as he could win right back. 5-VALIANT WEST has ability and may be overlooked in here. His two races at this level have been solid and he somehow managed to hold second in his last despite setting a cray fast, pressured pace in his last. As long as he can avoid the pace battle again, I expect he is in the mix late. 6-ELI'S PROMISE took action in his last but may have needed that start off the layoff. I expect we see better today as he comes in off a good work since that start and should be able to settle and run on late.

A really tough maiden race to close out the card as I'm hoping there's enough distance in here for 8-BOLTORO. She is winless from 16 starts as she seems to want more distance but she has run well against some very solid racehorses. Let's see if she can get going early enough to get into the mix. 3-ANQA makes her second career start as she ran a solid race while sprinting in her debut. She drew outside in that spot from a full field but found a decent position early. With the stretch in distance and move to the turf I expect we see a little bit more early speed in here. 6-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is another that may show more speed in here as she stretches out with the move to the grass. She has a pair of bullet drills coming into this race and looks primed for a top effort.

4-ICE AXE does seem most likely. He’s been in good form for a long time while meeting better rivals. The drop to this level could get him to the winner’s circle first. However, he comes from off the pace and he’s going to have to catch what appears to be the lone speed. 6-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT is a filly facing the boys but she does appear to gold a considerable speed advantage over the rest of the field, especially with the stretch in distance. She ran out of gas in last, her first two-turn start, but could be better prepared to get the distance today. 2-MY TENNIS SHOES is another that should have benefitted from his first local two-turn start.

This race has an abundance of early speed so I would normally look for a horse that comes from out of it. However, none of these horses like to run late. So, I’m forced to find a runner that might not “need” the early lead. I ended up with 4-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR. He showed little in his first two starts at the meet but he will be taking on marginally easier in this spot. He does own decent speed but his two wins resulted from stalking trips and he should be able to get that kind of trip today. 5-TABLE MONEY either seems to run very well or not run well at all. He’s not as quick as some but he did manage to win a pair of races at the top Oaklawn meet. 2-BALADINE’s wins have been all speed but he has shown some ability to come on late. If the expected pace scenario does develop, his smart rider could take advantage.

1-KAELY’S SISTER was a little short in her first start back from a year and a half layoff but she came right back with a vengeance to win her last, over similar rivals, going away. She’s quick enough to keep up with the early speed but unlike most in here, can also finish with authority. 3-SHEMEANSBUSINESS could be tough despite making her first start of the year. Most of her races were against Iowa breds and expect her to ship there shortly but she is as quick as any in here and she has been able to display sustained speed. 2-BALI DREAMIN was bet well, especially late, in her most recent start but she folded after being pressured throughout by top choice. She did beat that rival in their previous meeting. Unfortunately, looking at her lifetime pps, she does tend to fade late when pressured early. How long will she last with all the other speed in here?

Not sure this race will stay on turf so just have to figure the “best” horse. Going to take a flyer with 4-GI GI’S MAP. She’s racing at a slightly higher claiming level to make her local and turf debut but she’s one of those shipping in from Oaklawn in decent form. She’s bred for turf and her barn sports a respectable win percentage when they move horses from the main track to turf.  8-ALEXANDRA’S SONG was claimed from a non-threatening fourth-place finish in her local debut. However, think she’s the quickest member of this field, and she is bred to like the lawn. 9-BLAZE BEAUTY drops into straight claimers for the first time. She had a pair of turf races previously and didn’t show much in either but they were against tougher rivals. Might wake up at this level. 

3-HUNTER’S GHOST is as consistent as they get. He finished in the money in 12 of his last 14 races, winning three times, including his last two races. However, he seemed to kick it up a notch after getting claimed by this barn two races back. He won his first start for them easily. He’s stretching out today but like the way he finished last. 5-GITA’S LAD wired both fields he faced this meet. Overall, he has 12 wins in 30 local races, with another 10 in-the-money finishes. Meets others with speed but has proven that he thrives under pressure. 4-TRY TRY AGAIN might be overlooked but he fits perfectly with this group. He took on far better in his first start of the meet but that was a prep. He's dangerous at a price at this level.

3-BREAKING NEWS can win right back. He finished second in his first two starts of the meet before taking last. On or off the lead he could be tough. 8-RISKY BOY certainly figures. He won his first start of the meet, beating top choice, before finishing second to the tough Time Heist in last two. Like top choice, he’s capable of displaying decent speed or coming from out of it. 4-ROBUST might be the quickest of these. He was claimed from last couple and raced for three different barns in his last four starts. He tired badly in last but he is capable of leading all the way.

Interesting race, on or off the weeds. On grass, think 1-COMMAND POINT has the edge. She’s been a consistent contender and she sports a long series of good drills to get her prepared to make her 2024 debut. Her barn wins with about 30% of runners returning from similar layoffs so you would think she’ll be ready for her return. 12-QUILTING PARTY has to overcome a tough post but she did win one of her two turf races and with the drop into claimers, she might be the one to beat if this race gets moved to dirt. 10-SUMMER DAY has been better on turf but she could be a factor if this race does switch surfaces. Her last couple works indicate that he’s ready to go. 11-APRIL’S GEM is in poor form but she’s been racing on the main track lately and she’s been far better on turf. She won three in a row here last summer, beating top choice the last two times they met.

5-VALIANT WEST gets a slim nod in a very tough race. He finished third in his first race of the meet and second in last. However, especially like that his speed figures have gone up with every passing race. We might not have seen the best of this versatile runner yet. 4-GOOD APPLE is two-for-two at the meet and won both races wire-to-wire. He’ll have to deal with other speed today but already proved he could last under pressure. Like Good Apple, 3-MOONLIGHT ROAD is trained by Chris Block. He is fresh off an impressive maiden victory. Unlike Good Apple however, he will finish with a rush. Could fly by them all. 8-BEEASY moved a little too soon in last and couldn’t sustain the bid. Needed the race coming off a layoff. Could be tough at a price.

Not sure about 6-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE. She’s shown little in three races but all were contested in dirt sprints. Today she stretches out and tries turf. Her barn wins with 40% of runners running trying turf for the first time as well as 29% with runners stretching out. 3-ANQA ships in hoping to try turf. She wasn’t much of a factor in a synthetic sprint in her lone race but she’s another with the pedigree and connections to do better on the lawn. 11-REALISTIC GOAL could be a factor on either surface. She raced surprisingly well in her first start of the year after getting only one three-furlong drill under her belt. Could be ready for a much bigger effort.

Race 6:  3 - 5 - 8

Late Pick 4 ticket:  3,5 / 1,3,5,6,10,11,12 / 3,5,8 / 3,5  ($42)

To kick off a VERY difficult Pick 4, I have some #3 Breaking News (9-5) in the nickel claimer sprinting 6f. Although I’m not a fan of 8yo’s who don’t win too often, this gelding is in such fine form it’s hard to ignore him. Plus he continues to get Centeno in the irons and shows tactical speed from the inside. If he can work out a good trip, he’s a big win candidate. 

Race 7:  6 - 1 - 10 

In one of the toughest races to handicap on the card, I’m taking a price in #6 Lea Ro (8-1). This very big field of fillies going two turns on the turf will be a very trip-dependent affair…whomever works out the right one has a big chance. Although the Block filly on the inside might be tough, she hasn’t races since last September, and “Ro” has been facing good company down in Tampa Bay all winter/spring. I’m hoping Felix can work out a trip and he class / recency shows in a tough spot with many contenders. I’m going 7-deep here in my Late P4, so many things can happen. 

Race 8:  3 - 5 - 8 

Nice N1X allowance race for the penultimate race on the card. I always prefer more lightly-raced horses than experienced ones in these types of contests, so I’ll go with #3 Moonlight Road (7-2), who just broke his maiden. Although it took 6 tries to win, I like the pedigree on this one (Malibu Moon), and Block seems to have him going in the right direction. Not only that, his last work was excellent, so perhaps the “lightbulb” has gone on. Should be able to stalk and pounce off the main speed of Valiant Road, who might be the horse to beat with a 78 Beyer in his last effort. 

Race 9:  3 - 5 - 1

The nightcap and closeout leg of the Late P4 is interesting….a grass race for maiden special weights. I like the effort of #3 Anqa (5-2), the ML-favorite, last time at Turfway. It was a relatively fast pace, and the Godolphin homebred stuck around to finish an even 5th. With Distorted Humor on the dam side, turf should work out just fine, and her inside post will allow her to save ground and make her move when asked. Another I would not take a low price on if betting to win, but a must-use in the horizontals for sure.