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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu May 16th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Longshot #1 BAYTOWN LOVELY is worth a look in this evenly matched group. Prior to the long layoff she returned from in December her form from the juvenile season stacks up on par and competitive races over the dirt and extended sprint distance. Coming back from the layoff she turned in a B OptixGRADE with a compromised stumble break TROUBLES+ making a WIDE CLOSE to just miss at TP in January under similar N2 conditions. She will wheel back fit from the KEE start last month taking part in a WIDE DUEL, taken out of her runstyle before losing ground. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 7:23 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Starting with the "and up" the four-year-old fillies in this field with #5 ELLIPIC as a logical type coming off a competitive effort last month at KEE moving up on the class drop and with each start. 

Less obvious #4 CORRI FELICE taking the class drop today and has shown run in MSW with intent for this type of move as she was entered here on 4/27 (one day after the 4/26 return) for the $50k tag that race at the 6f distance and does appear this 8f distance is in her wheelhouse based on the prior placement. 

Also worth giving a mention to #10 EVERMORE one we have yet to see the best of yet. Her debut was followed by a long layoff, a layoff she returned from last month with a complete EX _ EXCUSE and the connections adding a couple works before this quick return could suggest intent.