Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 IRISH VALOR should fall into the right trip stalking as a Quad I Square off the first flight of runners in Quad I. The timing should also suit as he makes his second start back off the layoff and returning to the familiar route distance.

With the contention in Quad I including the two H. Rodriguez runners, #1 WHERE’D THE DAY GO and #5 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE joined by #6 BOURBON DELIGHT looking to engage from the outside. Trip could be similar to IRISH VALOR for #3 WILDWOOD’S WARRION on that brings upside keying off the 4/6 effort projecting to IMPROVE and took a step forward from that effort two weeks ago. Those two have the tactical jump on #4 PISTOL BOX (Q4 Square) making his late run. 

#7 SWEET SMILA makes a belated return though looking to pick up right where she left off last season. Going back to her debut, not only did she show she could “fire fresh”  but also the type of effort and early speed required to compete here. Wheeling back for the second start in August, much like her debut she had TROUBLE_S though visually also appeared to require the class DROP they return with today. Further intent could follow with M. Pedroza aboard to ride, racing for the higher tag and also showing up with first time starter IL homebred. #6 KOLACHE QUEEN.

In terms of #2 TRIBEST she has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and as the lone four-year-old those factors can make her dangerous. With that said, she has come up short without excuse including races under similar conditions including the common race and similar effort to #5 PEGGY’S WAY last month.

A couple of new faces will show up from Oaklawn with #1 RESOLUTION back around ONE_TURN to upgrade and #4 SHARP ATTACK on the drop for this second start and breaking SLOG in that March debut could change here on this circuit and with J. Felix aboard. Those two are preferred over #3 TEXAS HOTTIE one that is taking a subtle rise with today’s race par. 

#2 DAPPER DUDE is a major upgrade returning to the TURF based on his physicality along with competitive races (and intent) on the turf. Further intent should follow as they drop back in for the claiming tag out of the higher allowance races and where he becomes a major contender with the B- show finish effort back in March at the FG. Everything should line up for DAPPER DUDE from a pace standpoint given the Plot position, with the three to the outside along with the rail runner all “bunched” in Quad I and massive Surface/Distance upgrade for DAPPER DAN as well. 

#1 PATH TO SUCCESS has another look right back and under similar conditions from the “trip” as shown in the Past 3 Runlines on 4/27. Part of that trip was due to the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and rider TACTIC- with a rider change today as D. Cohen finding his light on this circuit and riding lights out.

On 4/27 #4 CATEGORY TEN was the play as he projected to and was overlooked by the public off buried form and favorable runstyle for that race shape. He could win right back though the overlay 8-1 is unlikely. Looking at the Plot, pace and trip is similar from Quad II to PATH TO SUCCESS here one that has the edge as a Square (finishing ability) in comparison. #7 SIR LUMPALOT is tough to ignore from the Plot visuals though will be tested with that trip on this circuit and from the barn change to hold here.

#5 MCMONEY coming off a show finish in the 4/27 common race and for the connections could gather attention right back as the beaten favorite. The trip was less than ideal with the TROUBLE_S and still put forward a competitive B- effort making a WIDE MOVE into the outcome. 

Robertson could look to sweep the maiden events showing up with #3 MISS MIKOS in this spot returning to Hawthorne and for the first time in statebred company. She debuted late into the 2023 meet and might have been rushed for that start racing GREEN and resenting KICKBACK something she was able to avoid with the WIDE trip in the March return at FG.

#6 COME ON LADY also makes a change in class and plenty of upside from her debut last September. She created her own hurdle out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) though did not end there with the TROUBLE in running and to her credit showed run to the wire visually can IMPROVE.

The change in class also comes into play for #7 IRISH SPARK debuting just two weeks ago against an established group of open company F&M MSW company at OP. She did not show much on the day though all things considered they might not have been looking for much and her number in that first start fits on par and with many in this field. That includes today’s established runner, #4 JOYZELLA one that will show up with her race and a top effort whether she catches the right group on the day remains to be seen. 

#2 CODE NAME looks a clever pick up at the April sale for P. Miller on this circuit where he can compete. Overall he did not show much improvement though was consistent especially in the sprints and on the synthetic/turf that fit right on par here.

#4 TWIRLING ROSES is price play coming into this race with buried current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and buried form on the turf. His races at this higher claiming level from the FG sit on par from a class and figure stand point and that can go back to his allowance race here last May (5/31/23) with a complete EX_EXCUSE --  that is worth going back to watching the replay on that one and tough to not give a look to after doing so.

The Rivelli pair can be taken seriously as the barn is second out live and both runners bring in legit early speed. Neither are proven on the turf, however there was intent for #6 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK to show up on the turf in the Tyro Stakes (5f Turf) last July at MTH, a race that would have been his first start for Rivelli and prior to the PRM Stakes that closed out 2023. 

#5 PRINCE IS MY BOY is exiting higher conditioned and par maiden events at Oaklawn and should move up naturally on this circuit. His races might not look like much “on paper” though has shown run though the trips this year and many races impacted by the WEATHER.

#4 ALVIN projects to IMPROVE as he makes his second start of the season from the 4/14 visuals. He was compromised at the break and made an early WIDE MOVE before losing ground. He should IMPROVE off that race and with the fitness given the start on this circuit. Similar considerations given to #6 SKYLANE with the subtle change in class wheeling right back in two weeks for this second start of the season.

Elias Lopez has sent out live runners this season and given respect with a pair in this race. #3 LATE BLACKSMITH has the edge on recency as they make their third start off the layoff and find the distance change without a drop in this spot and subtle flow-upgrade from the 5/4 event also potentially impacted by the DELAY. #7 PRAEFECTUS INBANUS gives up recency for this belated second start though going back to that debut a reasoned case we have not seen their best after missing the break/VSLOG and did have some wagering support for the prior connections off the 8-1 ML.  

Since 11/25 the first par of the FG meet waiting for #6 INTERLUDE to make a return. That running line and finishing position appears unassuming though that run was beyond BTL and compromised with a better outcome to the say the least. They can IMPROVE and does appear well-intended with the layoff and on this circuit, time, and place. Roussel will also send out #7 SHARP STRIKE with a local start, the addition of blinkers and back to the TURF.

As noted earlier on the card with Robertson runners, #3 SPINNING HEARS has established turf form and figures to fit on par with today’s race. He also has early speed, and the complexion of this race should be honest early especially with the presence of #2 RAVIN’S TOWN in this event, a highly regarded runner for the top connections. Top connections are all around in this field and not limited to those mentioned and with established runners such as #11 WOLF HUNTER and #12 EVEN THE WIND making his return with M. Pedroza aboard. 

Potential for the Hugo Rodriguez runners to go 1-2 in the opener in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. Gave the nod to 5-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE as he has faced a bit tougher company and should get a good tracking trip. 1-WHERE'D THE DAY GO may have the pace advantage as he comes off a nice victory in his last as he has run a pair of solid races on the meet. 2-IRISH VALOR may have needed that last start as he was coming off the layoff but he figures to show more in here as he has never missed the board in 11 lifetime starts at this distance.

It's a good sign that jockey Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. is in to ride the Robertson runners as they all appear to be live. 7-SWEET SMILA is the first of those on the card as she gets Lasix for the first time. She ran a good second on debut last summer and comes in off a good workout pattern leading into this spot. 5-PEGGY'S WAY ran well at this level in her last and figures to take a good amount of action. She should be forwardly placed once again but we will see how she handles things if Sweet Smile beats her to the lead. 2-TRIBEST (ARG) is overdue for the maiden score but will benefit if the top two choices duke it out on the front end. She ran on late in her last couple and looks to benefit from the added 16th today.

With weather to dictate whether or not this race remains on the grass, I think 8-HIGH HEADED is the best horse in her on either surface. After a maiden breaker on the poly, he chased while wide at the one turn mile at Churchill in his last. There is very little along the lines of early pace in here as he could clear from the outside draw. 7-COOL AND COLLECTED looks to be turf only although he has worked well on the main track leading toward his return. He also should be forwardly placed as he faces a bit easier compared to what he saw last summer. 5-PAPA YO is another that looks to be good on turf or dirt as he drops back down in class after facing tougher in his first off the claim last out. He will likely need some pace to chase as he figures to settle back early and run on late.

This is the second of the Robertson runners that Pedroza is in to ride as 3-MISS MIKOS figures to be a factor in her second start of the year. She chased and ran on late in her last as that was her first start with the addition of Lasix. She has worked well toward her return and figures to take some action in here. 7-IRISH SPARK debuted in the mud at Oaklawn against a tough bunch. She finds things easier in her today as she gets a fast track return. Don't be surprised if you see a bit more early pace from her in this spot. 1-LIONS LAW ran a good race at this level in her last as she showed speed and battled to the wire. She figures to be sent from the inside once again as she looks to continue to improve off that last effort.

A really intriguing turf sprint with some unknowns in this field. Going to give a look to 6-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK as he makes his first start on the grass as well as his first start as a three-year-old. He was very impressive in his debut last summer in Minnesota but bounced as the heavy choice against stakes runners in his second start out. He looks to be training very well toward this race as the time to mature has to be beneficial. 4-TWIRLING ROSES may get overlooked a bit in here but he has some turf starts that make him a player in this spot. If there is a contested pace upfront early, things may set up nicely for his closing kick. 1-SIMPLE LOGIC always seems to be right there on the grass but he has only the one turf win with eight runner-up efforts. He has sprinted in the past on the grass as he figures to sit back and close in the lane.

Two turn maiden claimers as experience at the distance could be the key. Looking to 5-PRINCE IS MY BOY as he comes out of some route races at Oaklawn. He wasn't helped by the short stretch two turn miles there but the long stretch should play right into his hands. 6-SKYLANE has tactical speed as has faced slightly tougher in Tampa around two turns and has held his own. He is overdue for the maiden score but has found the board in 7 of 10 starts and should be in the mix once again. 3-LATE BLACKSMITH is the one that stretches out and is worth a look as he improved greatly in his last. He will need to repeat that performance to contend in here but there is potential for him to cruise along on the front end.

In what looks to be a wide open race, almost any of these are in with a shot. Based on the turf experience alone, I'll look to 10-LAST RUN as he has run well against some tough company at Tampa in his last two. His figures to rate in the second flight early as it looks like he will have more than enough pace to chase. 3-SPINNING HEART is one who has held his own in three turf starts but may prefer a course more on the firm end. He has speed and should be a part of the early pace in this race. 12-EVEN THE WIND draws outside but looks to have enough tactical speed to find decent early position. He's knocking on the door for that first lifetime victory and could find it in this spot.

2-IRISH VALOR showed little in his local debut but he was making his first start since October and sprinting. Drops in class and stretches out and he has been far better going long. Wakes up big time. 1-WHERE’S THE DAY GO was an easy winner in last in a similar spot. He did win two of the last three times he ran at this claiming level and finished third in the other. His stalking style of running could give him the perfect trip. 5-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE can vie for the lead. Old timer was more successful on turf but he seems to thrive when fighting for the lead and that can happen in this slightly easier field than he has been facing.

Tough little race but have to go with 5-PEGGY’S WAY. She was favored in last, her first start for this barn, her first race of the year, and her first at Hawthorne but she came up a half-length short. But she figures to be far fitter with a race under her. She’s likely to be racing right off the early pace. Can edge by late. 3-TEXAS HOTTIE is fresh off a third-place finish at Oaklawn where she was facing rivals similar to these. That was her first start after getting claimed by this barn. Fits well with this group. 2-TRIBEST is probably the best of the speed. She finished a couple lengths behind top pick in their last race but she just didn’t fire. Adds blinkers for this race. Improved focus helps her chances.

2-DAPPER DUDE isn’t a strong choice but he’s dropping to a far better spot. He’s also returning to the surface where he has had the most success. He gets a red hot rider in the irons. The pace should set up perfectly for his late run. 7-COOL AND COLLECTED returns from a lengthy layoff but his barn sports a lofty 36% win rate with runners coming back from similar vacations. He wired the field to break his maiden here last year. Would seem likely to try for the lead once again. Especially dangerous if not challenged early. 8-HIGH HEADED hasn’t shown much since he broke his maiden and he has never been on turf but he races for top-notch connections and they are shipping him here to give turf a try.

This is one of the races where you can make a case for and against almost every runner. Ended up with 5-MCMONEY. He was favored in his local debut but didn’t really fire. Sometimes runners need a race over the track. The pace will set up. Might be able to make amends at a price. 4-CATEGORY TEN just beat many in this field. He successfully jumped in price from the $12,500 claiming level. He didn’t show much there but the pace of that last race set up for him; the same way it will today. Can repeat. 6-STAR KANOO does seem quicker than the rest. He was claimed from his last at Tampa, narrowly losing a slightly easier race. He is facing many with speed but he could be quick enough to clear them quickly and make the others catch him.

This race could turn out to be far more competitive than many Illinois-bred maiden races. Just going off numbers, 3-MISS MIKOS could be tough. The 70 Beyer Speed Figure she generated in her last is far above the typical number for Illinois maidens. By that alone, she would figure to win this race by daylight. But, no guarantee. 7-IRISH SPARK generated a respectable number in her lone race but she was facing a far tougher field at Oaklawn. She’s adding blinker for this. Her barn wins with 30% of runners making their second starts. I thought 1-LION LAW would be a logical favorite in her next start after her sharp 2024 debut but she could have a tough time beating the top pair. However, she does have the pedigree, she has speed and the rail. Might surprise. 4-JOYZELLA runs her heart out and is often in the money but think this field came up a bit too tough. 6-COME ON LADY didn’t show a thing in her debut last year but she has had some outstanding drills coming into her 2024 debut and she gets the services of the leading rider.

2-CODE NAME could be tough in his local debut and his first start for this barn. He’s plenty quick but like the fact that he’s capable of racing right off the pace and still finishing with plenty in reserve. 6-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK dazzled with a 15-length maiden victory in his Canterbury debut last year but stopped badly as the odds-on favorite when taking on stakes rivals in his second start. He’s been on the shelf since August but has been working well for the top barn. Gets Lasix today. Very dangerous. 1-SIMPLE LOGIC has had a bad case of seconditis on turf. He’s had 17 races on the surface and managed one win but finished second eight times. However, the pace should set up well. Beware the late runner.

This looks like one of those races that anybody can win and nobody can win but someone has to win. Think 6-SKYLANE might hold a small edge. It’s not that he has been great at any point but he’s had 10 races and finished in the money in seven of them. He’ll never be too far off the pace. Might simply outlast the rest. 3-LATE BLACKSMITH stretches out for the first time. After the speed he showed in a sprint last time, he should be expected to get the early lead today. Just not sure how long he’ll last. 5-PRINCE IS MY BOY isn’t much of a closer but he does seem likely to be one of the few in here capable of making a late move. Could get into striking position by midstretch.

2-RAVIN’S TOWN could be tough on turf or the main track. Speedy $300k purchase. Stretches out for the first time. On turf, he might be the lone speed but on the main track he would probably be fighting Coach Jimmy D for the lead. Could outlast them all either way though his barn, the leading barn, sports a paltry 4% win rate with runners stretching out.  14-COACH JIMMY D is entered for main track only. He’s been facing maidens at the tough Oaklawn meet. He finished a distant third in his only two-turn race but think he’s capable of far better. 12-EVEN THE WIND last raced in August but he’s had quite a few good, long works getting him ready for his 2024 debut. He raced competitively in most previous turf races and his barn wins with about 36% of runners coming back from similar layoffs. He will be attacking late. 6-INTERLUDE showed little in his last start in New Orleans last year but he did finish second in the first two races of his career, all on turf. He’s nowhere near as quick as some of the speedballs in this race but he’ll never be too far off the pace. If all the speed gets tied up vying for the lead, he might be able to slip past late.

Race 5:  3 - 5 - 6

Late Pick 4 Ticket:  3,5,6,7 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,6,7,9 / 2,6  ($60)

#3 Miss Mikos (9-5) might kick off this Pick 4 in style. The daughter of Enticed trained by Robertson ran VERY well chasing hot pace for open maiden $30k claimers last time at The Fairgrounds, receiving a very solid 70 Beyer for the level. There are others that are lightly-raced and could improve as well, but if “Mikos” runs back to her last effort, she could be very tough. I’ll spread to start the Late P4 for the simple fact that there are more questions than answers in this field, and horses can greatly improve in their 2nd career start.

Race 6:  1 - 2 - 4

A horse that’s 2-for-28 (with 10 2nd’s) and a closer going 5f are not exactly my cup of tea. That being said, #1 Simple Logic (7-2) is just that….a horse that is very consistent on the grass, has pace to run into, will save ground, and has numbers that fit vs. others. The gelding is clearly NOT a win machine, but I’m hoping Felix and Block have the right stuff to get the job done. He’ll need to find room in the stretch at the most crucial times.

Race 7:  4 - 6 - 7

#4 Alvin (7-2) did not get off to the best of starts last time and was bumped, compromising his chances from the get-go. His previous races out of town would most likely be good enough today…maybe he needed a race over the track and time to get acclimated to Chicago. Not much to beat if he runs his “A to B” effort. 

Race 8:  6 - 2 - 11

Final race of the day is a doozy…tough handicapping race and a great chance to make some money with a big field of maidens on the turf. I’ll land on a price for Trainer Roussel and #6 Interlude (8-1). He raced well as a 2yo with two seconds in three starts. Centeno rides and already has a win for Roussell at the meet. The colt is training forwardly and steadily, and the son of Mendelsohn figures to take a forward move in his 3yo debut…he’ll need to as his speed figs are slightly lower than a few in here.

T 2 Mass Market 4 Yank My Halo 6 Cactustotheclouds

P 6 Sailors Shadow 2 Premier First Star 4 Onyx Bovino

P 8 Clever Cody 2 Watchulookin At 6 Southwind Sambucca

P 1 Bayfield Beach 10 Wheels On Fire 4 Stop The Shooting

P 8 Uncle Shank 2 Livinthebeachlife 1 Reactor Now

P 3 Calicojack Hanover 4 Why Wouldnt Ya 7 Bold Spirit

P 8 Beyond Better 4 Toronto 5 Capitano Italiano

P 1 Sergeant Slaughter 2 Cupid Shuffle 10 T H McMurry

P 2 Stone Carver 9 Command 3 Ario Hanover

P 6 Boston Bound 10 Code Cracker 3 Jack Panic

The Preakness got a whole lot more interesting with the news of the scratch of Muth earlier this week as I figured he was an absolute lock to win this race. With Muth out, here's my horse by horse thoughts for the Preakness.

1-Mugatu: He was fifth in the Blue Grass, closing later than Sierra Leone. In the Preakness I don't expect him to get enough pace to chase to truly contend.

2-Uncle Heavy: An off track will move Uncle Heavy up quite a bit as he grabbed back to back wins over sealed tracks. He may not be fast enough though as the field he beat in the Withers didn't show much after that race.

3-Catching Freedom: He was one of the horses I had in the mix for the Derby and I thought he ran a solid race. This is a quick return though but he is also an every other race type of horse which could mean that he's sitting on a big one in here. He scares me but with Muth out he will likely be the second choice.

5-Mystik Dan: He ran the race of his life in the Derby and needed a perfect ride by Brian Hernandez to win. Can he win back, of course, but he will provide little value and the last time he was asked to return quickly was the worst race of his career.

6-Seize the Grey: He seems to be gradually improving and comes in off a fine victory in the Pat Day Mile. The problem is with that race being on Derby Day, he's in the same boat as others and being asked to make the quick return.

7-Just Steel: He was a part of the fast and contested pace that fell apart in the Derby but I do think the switch in the saddle to the more experienced Rosario will be a plus. I'm just not sure he can wheel back this quickly and expect a big effort.

8-Tuscan Gold: I like everything about him. He is lightly raced, has improved with each start, and comes in fresh. His running style should put him in the mix early and the distance should be no problem for him.

9-Imagination: The "other Baffert" is also a very talented racehorse. He has every chance to win this race and has enough speed to clear from the outside. He's never been worse than second on his career and figures to be the third choice at the windows.

I'm going to take Tuscan Gold on top in here as I think he gets a perfect tracking trip. He ran a good third behind Catching Freedom at this distance in the Louisiana Derby and is training easily and consistently into this race. Imagination looks to be the pace of the race and that can be dangerous if no others go. With only 8 in here, he could easily steal it. Mystik Dan is the Derby Champ. I liked him in the Derby and feel he can contend once again. It's just a lot to ask of a racehorse to run another huge race just two weeks after the biggest race of his life. Let's  see how he handles things on Saturday.