Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 2 Andale Andale 9 Dirty Dreams 3 Itsmycheck

T 5 Walter’s Keepsake 1 Golden Compass 6 Rose Run Vincent

P 5 Summer Lovesginger 2 Navagio 1 St Lads Giant

T 3 Winning Shadow 2 Joggingtothebank 4 Forky

P 6 Molly Kool 5 Honey Buzz 2 Come On Dover

T 8 Shamrock 6 Trix And Stones 2 Oberto

P 4 Panther Time 5 Nvrpoptdaplugs 8 White Hair Rocks

P 1 Hes A Sweetheart 9 Marriageontherocks 5 Rockin Tj

P 4 I’m A Soldier 9 Always Andrew 1 Milkimoto

P 5 Kneedeep N Custard 9 Captain Taylor 1 Uncle Jord

P 1 Grantmeawish 3 One Last Laugh 6 Back In My Day

P 1 Fromashestoashes 2 Lannister Hanover 6 The Golden Jet

P 7 American Fling 5 Elver Hanover 2 Cool Man Dude

P 8 Mufferaw Joe 4 Club Scene 3 Quick Trick

P 4 Melodies Major 2 Buddythebookie 1 Fly Charley Fly

#2 GO STORMIN GIRL has remained consistent all season and threat to pick up her second win of the meet. She is upgraded in today’s race shape (Large Square) and with form a this level and back with D. Cohen aboard. Perhaps her biggest threat comes from #4 MISS WINDY SLEW as she cuts back to a sprint and following an “every other” pattern is on the upswing of this current cycle and should be sitting on a peak effort, while overlooked.

#1 SADE PURSE has back numbers that fit though tougher to trust to return to those efforts given the April races coming back off the layoff. Granted she had TROUBLE_S in both, overall must show she can find her top form. As a positive, A. Centeno is aboard and notable. 

The race shape and early pace should set up #4 BE LUCKY for a front end trip. He presented upside on debut (IMPROVE) and cleared the maiden condition in his second start. He comes back in his second start against winners and while the layoff lines come into play once again, he is a flow-upgrade from the 2/2 event. #6 GETTING PAID should be right there on trip (Quad I) and a threat back under similar conditions coming off a WIDE trip last out and first out for Vanden Berg.

#2 HOPPIN JOHN was live and turned in a strong effort back on 3/29 at Oaklawn. He was unable to keep pace last month and shifts to this circuit, trainer J. Watkins while remaining in open company. Hard to mention HOPPIN JOHN without #7 JUST BECAUSE looking at the Plot with the two in a similar position without much between them.

#3 STOLICH is worth a mention wheeling back from a TROUBLE trip last week, though the shorter distance has been a hurdle for him in the past and not his most ideal here. 

The early pace should be contested with #3 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL sitting in Quad I with upside in her form cycle and second start off the layoff. She looked to need the race (PRERACE-) and should benefit from the start, the WIDE trip for fitness and the logical class drop back to claiming company. #2 EMITYAAZ wheeling back for her third start of the meet and a flow upgrade chasing a Very Fast early pace on 3/28.

#5 SILKY WARRIOR also finds some class relieve and could be key for her to move up on this circuit. She will make her second start of the meet and along with the change in class could suggest here as the case seemed to side with her stablemate on 4/7, Izzy’s Monster the place finisher.

Paying greater attention to the outcome than the off-odds #1 CAIRO SUMMER was live on 4/28 and ran a huge race to just miss at the wire. The test for her will be to repeat as that will be required here and had to work HARD on the day and back on three week rest and even her best might not be on the level with the others in this field, a tougher task as a Quad III/IV Circle. #4 MAIDEN ROCK can be upgraded of the off-the-pace runners, a Square in contrast to the Circle of #6 LOTTA ROSES. 

#2 CASCADE CRUISER has some hurdles taking on older and winners for the first time here though has shown class and improvement race-to-race. His form fits on par and appears intent as the barn holds two in the field and CASCADE CRUISER given the 36-day recovery waiting out for this spot.

Class wise this allowance could be taken closer to a lateral move for #6 HARD TO FATHOM coming out of the open company claiming races at Oaklawn. He has held his form and figures throughout his career and a major player on repeat of the 5/4 number. #5 HERCULES has some of the higher recorded figures in this field, though in terms of current form does not hold as strong of an edge and numbers on par with #4 EPIC KNIGHT; one that appears well-placed on this circuit though still must show up with a top effort and does not come into this race with any strong edge over others where price compensation is required. 

This race lacks a standout to make a case for the new face in #10 SURPRISE ME AGAIN for C. Block capable connections and could have been waiting for the grass for this first start. They will race against open today though find other IL-bred runners in this field to level things out. One of those being #3 MOLLY’S TEMPLE One that must step up in a big way on return though does present TURF visuals and should appreciate the surface switch.

 This race could be full of surprises with #7 DI’S SURPRISE making a second start and grass debut. She showed legit early speed after a poor start making a RUSH in a race that has been mildly productive with two next out winners and a total of three from the 3/31 event.

Some intent could be on play for lightly raced 5yo mare #4 HA HA GLORIA showing up on this circuit, remaining protected and the type with the layoff lines that must come out race ready. While she finds the change to this circuit the 10/22 October MSW event was not a strong event still looking for a next out winner. 

#5 OEURVE is the class of the field and looking at the Plot, should not be setting the pace with #2 PURR SEA though can rate close enough (Surface/Distance) to not be compromised from race shape standpoint. OEUVRE has spent the majority of her career on the turf, though has a solid dirt record including multiple and dominant wins here at Hawthorne. 

#7 ANOTHER MYSTERY makes his return in this spot and a serious racehorse though one that might not quite be to the graded stakes level. He will race today for the higher $75k tag, a number that could still be a bit of a gamble on the claiming side though not significant enough to raise any red flags with the connections placing him where he can compete and return to winning ways. #1 READTHECLIFFNOTES make a return to the turf in the first time in a long time, though no contender with that change as he has been consistent on the grass with his form at the time and his current form into this race sits on par.

On the claiming front, that was the case for #2 PROTONIC POWER back on 4/6 and picked up a check in a smaller stake just three weeks late. They come back to Hawthorne for this start and back to the grass and allowance condition where he has been effective and competitive, a better spot than the recent FG stakes races, events where he held his form and figures just not quite to the level of that competition, something he does not have to worry about here. 

#3 DEMAND RANSOM is a longshot though has some qualities to make a case for here. The prior allowance races were not the right spot for him though benefit from those efforts on fitness and looking at the Past 3 Runlines is showing improvement race-to-race and could be intent wheeling back in a week with the weight break. Hughes has sent out some live runners at big numbers this season and could have another one here.

Looking at the Plot, #7 LAKE MILLS might not be as far back as one could expect from him looking at the prior running lines and finishing position. Today’s race shape should be honest especially with #4 HUNKA BURNING LOVE coming off the layoff and #8 BOURBON TEDDY from the outside joined with #5 SLAVA UKRANI to keep things contested and set up LAKE MILLS on the drop. LAKEMILLS from the Quad II position should secure first run and first run on #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEFFER one that is steadily moving forward off the layoff and subtle change in class. 

#2 DOCS SEVEN has had limited opportunities to race on the TURF in her career though from a physical standpoint looks the part. She comes into this event with form out of very competitive races at Oaklawn to transfer here naturally.

#6 GET THE CANDY appears a need the lead type though in this field (Plot) combined with her back class she could establish that trip here and dangerous on the front end. Her stablemate #7 FRANKEL BABY also has shown early speed and coming off a front running win, a win that will have her class tested again today.

#11 RAMBERT also brings in early speed and while she has had success up front arguably her best trip is to stalk-and-pounce, the manner of the MED win back in 2022 and her return from the layoff in the following start last June at DEL. 

A fun race to start the day with a pretty evenly matched bunch. David Cohen has been riding very well since coming to Hawthorne and he gets the call on 2-GO STORMIN GIRL as she has been solid in all three starts on the meet. Cohen gave her a perfect ride in her last as she almost held off the late closing move of Style, getting caught in the shadow of the wire. Shortens slightly to the distance where she won two back as she may rate closer early in what looks to be a very bunched up field. 7-LADY STLANTIC could be a bit of a sleeper in this spot as she has run better races in her last couple. She should rate close to the pace and has been at her best over this Hawthorne strip. 1-SADE PURSE drops in class for trainer James as she makes her first Hawthorne start. She has made a couple of starts since coming off the long layoff and should benefit from the class relief.

I think it's going to be very tough to defeat 6-GETTIN PAID as he remains at this level in his first start off the claim. He ran a good race in his last and was left to chase the lone speed in that spot. There is the potential for a similar pace setup today but that probable pacesetter should be vulnerable. 1-HOPPIN JOHN drops after three starts at Oaklawn this winter. He held his own in the race two back as he may look to sit closer in here. 4-BE LUCKY should be the one on the lead and have the chance to steal this race. The only concern for me here is the quick drop in class. He was claimed for $25k off the victory just two starts ago and drops to the bottom after having a claim for him voided in a start back on February 2nd for $16k.

Thinking the drop back to the $5k level should be enough to put 5-SILKY WARRIOR over the top. She raced in the slop in her last and made a bit of a move into the lane before flattening out. With a fast track likely Sunday, look for her to sit back early and rally in the lane. 3-MIDNIGHT'S GIRL looks to show some speed in this spot as she may be able to clear and never look back. She got away a step slowly in her last which may have compromised her chances but has since worked well leading toward her return. With a clean break, she may never look back. 2-EEMITYAAZ is the other likely to show some speed as she was forwardly placed in her last couple before giving way late. She should be able to stalk a slower early pace of Midnight's Girl here and could look to pounce in the lane.

Really good to see a race like this go as this is a very evenly matched bunch. Going to give the nod to 6-HARD TO FATHOM as this could be the first training victory in the career of Daniel Simonovich. This is a great racing family that he comes from and this horse looks to be well spotted after being claimed for $20k last summer at Gulfstream. He ran very well in his last at Oaklawn and should be on or near the lead in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 5-HEERCULES comes in from Tampa as he gets back around two turns, where he looks to belong. He appears to be an every other race type of horse which should have him sitting on a big one here but those races also come with the two turns. Look for him to rate close early and be very tough into the lane. 4-EPIC KNIGHT tries the conventional dirt for the first time but is a  fit as he has run well throughout the winter at Turfway. He has improved over the course of his last three starts and figures to continue that pattern today.

Really competitive turf bunch here as the experience of a start on the grass should help the chances of 4-HA HA GLORIA (IRE) for trainer Coty Rosin. She battled the entire way in her only career start on the grass at Santa Anita last fall and comes in working well into here. The are some questions surrounding her as this is only her third career start at the age of five and the first two races were spread out, with another layoff coming into here. Maybe those breaks allow for a bit better value. 6-TAKER BACK has run on an off track in four of five career starts and held her own in two of her last three. She looks to rate close early and may get enough pace to chase. 10-SUPRISE ME AGAIN debuts from the outside for Block and I don't mind this draw. She gets Lasix for this start and should be able to angle in to the turn.

A tremendous turf field here as many of these have faced stakes company at one time during their career. Coming off a good third on the dirt against stakes runners at Fonner in his last, 2-PROTONIC POWER returns to the grass as he finds a good spot here. He may look to rate closer early as there's not a ton of pace in this race. He likes Hawthorne, likes the distance, and runs for a barn that has gotten off to a tremendous start. 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY is a graded stakes winner who looks to get a confidence boost today as he makes his 2024 debut. He is at his best when he sits a bit closer to the early pace and although he has gone much longer in recent races, the 1 1/16 distance is his best. 1-READTHECLIFFNOTES is such a cool horse as he tries hard every time out. He ran a big race on the dirt in his last and battled to the wire behind the lone speed. He could rate closer early in here and is another that loves this distance.

Let's see if Peter Galassi makes any Elvis references in here as 4-HUNKA BURNING LOVE makes his first start of the year for Jon Arnett. He is a 10yo who has found the board in 42 of 74 career starts as he approaches $750k in lifetime earnings. He has a couple of works toward the return and should be ready off the bench. 7-LAKE MILLS is the likely one to beat as he drops out of races against tougher in his last couple. Those starts weren't terrible by any means as  the class relief may be all he needs. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER makes his third start of the meet as he looks to improve off his last couple. He has run well at Hawthorne in the past and will just need some pace to chase in here.

An evenly matched group of turf sprinters closes the card as the outside may have the advantage today. 11-RAMBERT has been solid on the grass on his career as she makes her first start of the year. She has early speed and despite the large field, there's not a ton of pace in this race. Let's see if she can clear early and angle into the turn. 10-MOVE IT BABY was a good winner on the grass in her last and gets back to the same distance in here. She won't be too far back at any time as she's another that looks to benefit from the angle into the far turn. 6-GET THE CANDY has speed as she comes in from Florida for today's race. She faced tougher in her last couple but finds a spot where she fits nicely today.

2-GO STORMIN GIRL just missed in last after winning her previous start. She had taken a small late lead in that last race but got nailed at the wire, losing by a head. She ran well in all her races this meet. Guessing that streak will continue. 6-TAP N TWINE led most of last, often under pressure, but came up just a little short and was passed by a pair of runners, including top pick. However, that race was at six furlongs and she’s cutting back in distance for this. Might have enough left to last on the lead. 4-MISS WINDY SLEW drops in class and turns back in distance. She displayed good route speed in her last start but simply ran out of gas. Might stay competitive longer in this shorter, easier race.

1-HOPPIN JOHN drops to a new low. He had one good race at Oaklawn compared to two poor efforts but those dull races came on off tracks. No matter what, he should be tough versus this easier company but prefer his chances if the track surface is fast. 6-GETTING PAID is probably the one to beat. He finished second when dropped to this level in last and got claimed by a trainer that does well with first-time claims. 4-BE LUCKY is probably the quickest of these. But he stopped badly in last and the claim that was placed on him was voided. Now he drops again. Hard to gauge. 

3-MIDNIGHT’S GIRL beat only one in last but she was racing for the first time since January and, for some reason they ran her in allowance company. Drops sharply. Has speed to spare. Will have to be caught. 5-SILKY WARRIOR is another seeking an easier spot. She has shown speed at times but seems to be at her best when coming from off the pace and the pace of this race should suit her fine. 2-EMITYAAZ could be leading the second tier. She tired late in last but could show more sustained run in her third start of the meet. 1-CAIRO SUMMER flew late in last to just miss. A similar effort to that today will put her squarely in the hunt.

Good betting race. Should be no heavy favorite or huge longshots in this one. Leaning to 2-CASCADE CRUISER. This recent grad takes on far more experienced rivals but I like the way he has been progressing and especially like the way he finished in last, his first race with blinkers. 6-HARD TO FATHOM could give this trainer his first career win. This gelding narrow lost last, a good claimer at Oaklawn, and he generated the highest recent speed figure of any in here in that loss. Gets a red hot rider as pilot. Might get it done. 5-HERCULES loves to win, he already scored three times this year, but his recent wins have all been in low-level claimers. However, his speed figures suggest he fits well with these. Certainly respect the connections of 4-EPIC KNIGHT but he’s apparently never even had a work on dirt. He will be adding blinkers for his local debut. 

7-DI’S SURPRISE tired badly fighting for the lead in her lone start and she’s one of many in here with early speed but believe we’ll see a better effort today. She races for the top barn and they often win with second-time starters. Plus, with a 32% turf sprint winning average, you have to figure they’ll have this filly ready to rock. 4-HA HA GLORIA certainly figures to be the one to beat. She finished second in last, a turf sprint at Santa Anita. However, she raced for different connections, she hasn’t run since October, and her barn’s runners often need a race. She’s a 5-year-old making only her second third start, one race in each of the last two years, so you have to figure she has some issues. 10-SURPRISE ME AGAIN wouldn’t be a major surprise. She makes her debut for one of the top trainers and she gets the top jock in her irons. Runners from her barn aren’t pushed to win their debut but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Don’t overlook.

5-OEUVRE, defending champ of the Third Chance, seems likely to repeat. She might have been a bit outclassed in the Grade 3 Giants Causeway at Keeneland in last but her dull effort might also be attributed to racing without Lasix. But she will be able to utilize it again today since this race is a handicap, not a stakes race. She has only lost two of her nine races at Hawthorne and none since racing for this barn. Probably worth the short price. 2-PURR SEA is the only one that has defeated top pick locally, which she did in a couple stakes back in 2021. She took nearly a year off from October 2022 until 2023 and raced herself into shape when she returned. Won her last at Turfway but that race was three months ago. Still, she seems to be the best speed. Might try to wire them. 7-WHITE LIES was favored in her first start of the year but she had some early trouble that took her out of her game. But at least it gave her a recent race. Should be dead fit and hoping for a better trip this time.

Interesting race. Half the connections are probably wishing this race would get moved to the main track while the other half wants it to remain on turf. We were off the turf on Saturday but expecting the course to dry out with the windy and warm temps. Believe the turf votes will win this one since there is little precipitation in the forecast. 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY is undoubtedly the one they have to beat on the lawn. This multiple stakes winner races for the first time this year and didn’t show much in 2023 but he’d been racing in graded stakes. He won’t be close early but this winner of over $660000 will be flying late. 2-PROTONIC POWER probably wouldn’t be considered a turf pro but he does have a turn win, scored here, to his credit. Fresh off a third-place stakes finish at Fonner, he is one of the few in here that has speed figures somewhat close to those of top choice. However, if this race did come off the lawn, his chances would seem to improve dramatically. Nine-year-old 1-READTHECLIFFNOTES has had some decent efforts on the lawn without winning. However, he’s as tough as the come on dirt. He’s been victorious in 10 of 19 on dirt, including winning both his starts on off tracks. 8-NOVGORAD THE GREAT is an interesting runner. He’s the only “real” speed in the race. He never won on turf but he could build an unsurmountable lead on either surface and never look back.

5-SLAVA UKRAINI tends to tire but he is probably the quickest member of this field and he’s one of a few in here dropping to the lowest level of his career. 7-LAKE MILLS, another dropper, hasn’t won for a couple years but he has finished third in five of his last seven starts. He’s another dropper that figures to be far tougher at this level. 4-HUNKA BURNIN LOVE also drops. He’s making his first start of the year. His rider is having a great meet and his barn is winning here at a 25% rate but this 10-year-old has had only a couple 2024 works and the barn wins with only about 4% of runners coming off similar layoffs.

6-GET THE CANDY might be the best of the speed. She’s had considerable success on turf, including in turf sprints. She’s had only limited works since her last race in February but have to figure she’ll be ready off the brief layoff. 2-DOC’S SEVEN is worth another look. She’s had only two turf races, both sprints, and finished in the money in both. She’s been racing at Oaklawn with some success. Decent current form and fitness might imply that she holds the edge. 10-MOVE IT BABY could get the perfect stalking trip. She was a sharp winner in her last in Louisiana and generated the highest recent speed figures of any in here but she’s another with questionable workouts. 11-RAMBERT, with four wins at the distance, makes her first start of the year and her first after getting claimed by this barn. But, like the top pair, her workout pattern leaves a lot to be desired. Will she be ready?

Race 6:  2 - 5 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,5 / 1,2,7,8 / 3,4,5,6,7,8 / 6,11   ($48)

The Third Chance Stakes, named after a real nice Ill-bred., features ladies sprinting on the dirt. The prohibitive favorite will be the talented #5 Oeuvre, who’s won over $800k on dirt and turf facing nice open company foes. But, I have two small concerns with her today. 1) She’s better on turf 2) She’s been running quite often lately and I think her best days may be behind her at this juncture. That being said, she’ll be tough here….but I’m going with an upset with the speedy #2 Purr Sea (4-1) for Boyce. She has plenty of nice races (albeit slower than Oeuvre) and figures to be loose on the lead if she breaks. Maybe today is her day to shine…pop the gate and don’t look back. Just hoping the wire comes quick enough in deep stretch. 

Race 7:  8 - 2 - 7

Another speed angle I’m choosing to tip out is #8 Novogrod the Great (6-1) in this nice turf allowance. The obvious concerns are the distance and layoff. He had a very busy 5yo campaign, but for the first time in a while is well-rested. The main factor for me in choosing “Novogrod” is two-fold: 1) He’ll be on an easy lead (in theory), and 2) the favorites are vulnerable. #2 Protonic Power is the most likely winner in my mind, but is 1/10 on grass and will be running his 3rd race in 6 weeks. #7 Another Mystery wants longer and is coming off a layoff. 

Race 8:  4 - 5 - 7

Do I fully trust my top choice #4 Hunka Burning Love (3-1), a 10yr. off a layoff? Absolutely not….but he has two works since the layoff and towers over the field from a class perspective. If he shows his usual speed, he’ll have a big shot in the lane. This is a BIG SPREAD race for me horizontally, so use as many as your budget allows in the Pick 4.

Race 9:  6 - 11 - 7

In a tricky finale for claimers sprinting on the turf, #6 Get the Candy (7-2), a NY-bred for Vanden Berg, is attempting to live up to her name. She’s been involved in very fast, difficult races at Gulfstream over the winter where they fly early. This crew is much easier, and if she’s right, may run them off their feet from the start. I suppose the drop could be a concern, but maybe the trainer is simply placing her where she belongs.