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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat May 18th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 IRISH VALOR should fall into the right trip stalking as a Quad I Square off the first flight of runners in Quad I. The timing should also suit as he makes his second start back off the layoff and returning to the familiar route distance.

With the contention in Quad I including the two H. Rodriguez runners, #1 WHERE’D THE DAY GO and #5 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE joined by #6 BOURBON DELIGHT looking to engage from the outside. Trip could be similar to IRISH VALOR for #3 WILDWOOD’S WARRION on that brings upside keying off the 4/6 effort projecting to IMPROVE and took a step forward from that effort two weeks ago. Those two have the tactical jump on #4 PISTOL BOX (Q4 Square) making his late run. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 SWEET SMILA makes a belated return though looking to pick up right where she left off last season. Going back to her debut, not only did she show she could “fire fresh”  but also the type of effort and early speed required to compete here. Wheeling back for the second start in August, much like her debut she had TROUBLE_S though visually also appeared to require the class DROP they return with today. Further intent could follow with M. Pedroza aboard to ride, racing for the higher tag and also showing up with first time starter IL homebred. #6 KOLACHE QUEEN.

In terms of #2 TRIBEST she has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and as the lone four-year-old those factors can make her dangerous. With that said, she has come up short without excuse including races under similar conditions including the common race and similar effort to #5 PEGGY’S WAY last month.

A couple of new faces will show up from Oaklawn with #1 RESOLUTION back around ONE_TURN to upgrade and #4 SHARP ATTACK on the drop for this second start and breaking SLOG in that March debut could change here on this circuit and with J. Felix aboard. Those two are preferred over #3 TEXAS HOTTIE one that is taking a subtle rise with today’s race par. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 DAPPER DUDE is a major upgrade returning to the TURF based on his physicality along with competitive races (and intent) on the turf. Further intent should follow as they drop back in for the claiming tag out of the higher allowance races and where he becomes a major contender with the B- show finish effort back in March at the FG. Everything should line up for DAPPER DUDE from a pace standpoint given the Plot position, with the three to the outside along with the rail runner all “bunched” in Quad I and massive Surface/Distance upgrade for DAPPER DAN as well. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 PATH TO SUCCESS has another look right back and under similar conditions from the “trip” as shown in the Past 3 Runlines on 4/27. Part of that trip was due to the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and rider TACTIC- with a rider change today as D. Cohen finding his light on this circuit and riding lights out.

On 4/27 #4 CATEGORY TEN was the play as he projected to and was overlooked by the public off buried form and favorable runstyle for that race shape. He could win right back though the overlay 8-1 is unlikely. Looking at the Plot, pace and trip is similar from Quad II to PATH TO SUCCESS here one that has the edge as a Square (finishing ability) in comparison. #7 SIR LUMPALOT is tough to ignore from the Plot visuals though will be tested with that trip on this circuit and from the barn change to hold here.

#5 MCMONEY coming off a show finish in the 4/27 common race and for the connections could gather attention right back as the beaten favorite. The trip was less than ideal with the TROUBLE_S and still put forward a competitive B- effort making a WIDE MOVE into the outcome. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Robertson could look to sweep the maiden events showing up with #3 MISS MIKOS in this spot returning to Hawthorne and for the first time in statebred company. She debuted late into the 2023 meet and might have been rushed for that start racing GREEN and resenting KICKBACK something she was able to avoid with the WIDE trip in the March return at FG.

#6 COME ON LADY also makes a change in class and plenty of upside from her debut last September. She created her own hurdle out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) though did not end there with the TROUBLE in running and to her credit showed run to the wire visually can IMPROVE.

The change in class also comes into play for #7 IRISH SPARK debuting just two weeks ago against an established group of open company F&M MSW company at OP. She did not show much on the day though all things considered they might not have been looking for much and her number in that first start fits on par and with many in this field. That includes today’s established runner, #4 JOYZELLA one that will show up with her race and a top effort whether she catches the right group on the day remains to be seen. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 CODE NAME looks a clever pick up at the April sale for P. Miller on this circuit where he can compete. Overall he did not show much improvement though was consistent especially in the sprints and on the synthetic/turf that fit right on par here.

#4 TWIRLING ROSES is price play coming into this race with buried current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and buried form on the turf. His races at this higher claiming level from the FG sit on par from a class and figure stand point and that can go back to his allowance race here last May (5/31/23) with a complete EX_EXCUSE --  that is worth going back to watching the replay on that one and tough to not give a look to after doing so.

The Rivelli pair can be taken seriously as the barn is second out live and both runners bring in legit early speed. Neither are proven on the turf, however there was intent for #6 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK to show up on the turf in the Tyro Stakes (5f Turf) last July at MTH, a race that would have been his first start for Rivelli and prior to the PRM Stakes that closed out 2023. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PRINCE IS MY BOY is exiting higher conditioned and par maiden events at Oaklawn and should move up naturally on this circuit. His races might not look like much “on paper” though has shown run though the trips this year and many races impacted by the WEATHER.

#4 ALVIN projects to IMPROVE as he makes his second start of the season from the 4/14 visuals. He was compromised at the break and made an early WIDE MOVE before losing ground. He should IMPROVE off that race and with the fitness given the start on this circuit. Similar considerations given to #6 SKYLANE with the subtle change in class wheeling right back in two weeks for this second start of the season.

Elias Lopez has sent out live runners this season and given respect with a pair in this race. #3 LATE BLACKSMITH has the edge on recency as they make their third start off the layoff and find the distance change without a drop in this spot and subtle flow-upgrade from the 5/4 event also potentially impacted by the DELAY. #7 PRAEFECTUS INBANUS gives up recency for this belated second start though going back to that debut a reasoned case we have not seen their best after missing the break/VSLOG and did have some wagering support for the prior connections off the 8-1 ML.  

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Since 11/25 the first par of the FG meet waiting for #6 INTERLUDE to make a return. That running line and finishing position appears unassuming though that run was beyond BTL and compromised with a better outcome to the say the least. They can IMPROVE and does appear well-intended with the layoff and on this circuit, time, and place. Roussel will also send out #7 SHARP STRIKE with a local start, the addition of blinkers and back to the TURF.

As noted earlier on the card with Robertson runners, #3 SPINNING HEARS has established turf form and figures to fit on par with today’s race. He also has early speed, and the complexion of this race should be honest early especially with the presence of #2 RAVIN’S TOWN in this event, a highly regarded runner for the top connections. Top connections are all around in this field and not limited to those mentioned and with established runners such as #11 WOLF HUNTER and #12 EVEN THE WIND making his return with M. Pedroza aboard.