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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun May 19th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Go Stormin Girl 7 Lady Atlantic 1 Sade Purse

A fun race to start the day with a pretty evenly matched bunch. David Cohen has been riding very well since coming to Hawthorne and he gets the call on 2-GO STORMIN GIRL as she has been solid in all three starts on the meet. Cohen gave her a perfect ride in her last as she almost held off the late closing move of Style, getting caught in the shadow of the wire. Shortens slightly to the distance where she won two back as she may rate closer early in what looks to be a very bunched up field. 7-LADY STLANTIC could be a bit of a sleeper in this spot as she has run better races in her last couple. She should rate close to the pace and has been at her best over this Hawthorne strip. 1-SADE PURSE drops in class for trainer James as she makes her first Hawthorne start. She has made a couple of starts since coming off the long layoff and should benefit from the class relief.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:08 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Gettin Paid 1 Hoppin John 4 Be Lucky

I think it's going to be very tough to defeat 6-GETTIN PAID as he remains at this level in his first start off the claim. He ran a good race in his last and was left to chase the lone speed in that spot. There is the potential for a similar pace setup today but that probable pacesetter should be vulnerable. 1-HOPPIN JOHN drops after three starts at Oaklawn this winter. He held his own in the race two back as he may look to sit closer in here. 4-BE LUCKY should be the one on the lead and have the chance to steal this race. The only concern for me here is the quick drop in class. He was claimed for $25k off the victory just two starts ago and drops to the bottom after having a claim for him voided in a start back on February 2nd for $16k.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:36 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Silky Warrior (IRE) 3 Midnight's Girl 2 Emityaaz

Thinking the drop back to the $5k level should be enough to put 5-SILKY WARRIOR over the top. She raced in the slop in her last and made a bit of a move into the lane before flattening out. With a fast track likely Sunday, look for her to sit back early and rally in the lane. 3-MIDNIGHT'S GIRL looks to show some speed in this spot as she may be able to clear and never look back. She got away a step slowly in her last which may have compromised her chances but has since worked well leading toward her return. With a clean break, she may never look back. 2-EEMITYAAZ is the other likely to show some speed as she was forwardly placed in her last couple before giving way late. She should be able to stalk a slower early pace of Midnight's Girl here and could look to pounce in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:04 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Hard to Fathom 5 Hercules 4 Epic Knight

Really good to see a race like this go as this is a very evenly matched bunch. Going to give the nod to 6-HARD TO FATHOM as this could be the first training victory in the career of Daniel Simonovich. This is a great racing family that he comes from and this horse looks to be well spotted after being claimed for $20k last summer at Gulfstream. He ran very well in his last at Oaklawn and should be on or near the lead in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 5-HEERCULES comes in from Tampa as he gets back around two turns, where he looks to belong. He appears to be an every other race type of horse which should have him sitting on a big one here but those races also come with the two turns. Look for him to rate close early and be very tough into the lane. 4-EPIC KNIGHT tries the conventional dirt for the first time but is a  fit as he has run well throughout the winter at Turfway. He has improved over the course of his last three starts and figures to continue that pattern today.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:32 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Ha Ha Gloria (IRE) 6 Taker Back 10 Suprise Me Again

Really competitive turf bunch here as the experience of a start on the grass should help the chances of 4-HA HA GLORIA (IRE) for trainer Coty Rosin. She battled the entire way in her only career start on the grass at Santa Anita last fall and comes in working well into here. The are some questions surrounding her as this is only her third career start at the age of five and the first two races were spread out, with another layoff coming into here. Maybe those breaks allow for a bit better value. 6-TAKER BACK has run on an off track in four of five career starts and held her own in two of her last three. She looks to rate close early and may get enough pace to chase. 10-SUPRISE ME AGAIN debuts from the outside for Block and I don't mind this draw. She gets Lasix for this start and should be able to angle in to the turn.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Protonic Power 7 Another Mystery 1 Readthecliffnotes

A tremendous turf field here as many of these have faced stakes company at one time during their career. Coming off a good third on the dirt against stakes runners at Fonner in his last, 2-PROTONIC POWER returns to the grass as he finds a good spot here. He may look to rate closer early as there's not a ton of pace in this race. He likes Hawthorne, likes the distance, and runs for a barn that has gotten off to a tremendous start. 7-ANOTHER MYSTERY is a graded stakes winner who looks to get a confidence boost today as he makes his 2024 debut. He is at his best when he sits a bit closer to the early pace and although he has gone much longer in recent races, the 1 1/16 distance is his best. 1-READTHECLIFFNOTES is such a cool horse as he tries hard every time out. He ran a big race on the dirt in his last and battled to the wire behind the lone speed. He could rate closer early in here and is another that loves this distance.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Hunka Burning Love 7 Lake Mills 2 Barefootbootlegger

Let's see if Peter Galassi makes any Elvis references in here as 4-HUNKA BURNING LOVE makes his first start of the year for Jon Arnett. He is a 10yo who has found the board in 42 of 74 career starts as he approaches $750k in lifetime earnings. He has a couple of works toward the return and should be ready off the bench. 7-LAKE MILLS is the likely one to beat as he drops out of races against tougher in his last couple. Those starts weren't terrible by any means as  the class relief may be all he needs. 2-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER makes his third start of the meet as he looks to improve off his last couple. He has run well at Hawthorne in the past and will just need some pace to chase in here.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
11 Rambert 10 Move It Baby 6 Get the Candy

An evenly matched group of turf sprinters closes the card as the outside may have the advantage today. 11-RAMBERT has been solid on the grass on his career as she makes her first start of the year. She has early speed and despite the large field, there's not a ton of pace in this race. Let's see if she can clear early and angle into the turn. 10-MOVE IT BABY was a good winner on the grass in her last and gets back to the same distance in here. She won't be too far back at any time as she's another that looks to benefit from the angle into the far turn. 6-GET THE CANDY has speed as she comes in from Florida for today's race. She faced tougher in her last couple but finds a spot where she fits nicely today.