Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 MAQAMAT comes into this race first off the claim for Vanden Berg in form and well placed looking for the first win this season. He was claimed last month for the $4k tag and stepped up to compete here. The rise is less of a concern keying off a BTL effort back on 4/13 under similar conditions to today’s event.

The race shape should also set up for his runstyle. Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be contentious with the three Quad I runners including morning line favorite’s #3 BREAKING NEWS and #6 RIVZONAROLL joined by #5 LUCKY SHOT. With the scratch of MAQAMAT (racing on Sunday) will look for LUCKY SHOT to be the "speed of the speed" and a shot with them in that role (hoping they roll) as the higher of the Q1 trio and potentially longer odds with #4 TIME HEIST and #7 MON AMI FUZZIE as the Q4 Squares. 

#4 JOE THE TAILOR has the edge on recency and sprint form over the returning #6 TAHOE RUN though those two stand out in this field heads and horsetails among the others. On his best day, #9 CYCLONE ATTACK could be right there and does hold form over the turf sprinting, an edge on the other two at this point, though those two should have no issues with the surface/distance given today’s group. 

#6 STAND BY YOU likely needed the start last month coming off the layoff and the class DROP she finds here as well. The race par was similar today with the purse lower and the horses that came back held their form with a couple finishing strong place outcome and another with an excuse, holding form all around. She projects to move up like the others from that group and with the fitness under her belt from that WIDE trip.

Former Catalano trainee, #8 MADELYN BELLE has proven herself at this level this season and a threat to triple threat this season. Looking at the Plot, she could present a clear pace advantage (#1 ADIVA chasing) on the front end. In terms of form cycle, there were some concerns on 4/13 with some regression after the big effort to win opening day (3/23) though handed the field pairing numbers though is a positive she has been given the 42-day recovery back today.

#5 STYLE creates her own adversity with the pattern of SLOG though is in form and a positive the new connections will step back up off the claim. Her numbers overall sit in line with ADIVA and while she does not hold the same tactical (Q1) speed, she can be compensated on the board. 

#5 TOP LOOK gets top billing here and should be in the right spot to get the win for both horse and trainer. She comes into this race with current and consistent form with figures on par. Her trip can be dictated by D. Centeno as she holds versatility and not a need the lead type something that could come into play with #7 HIP HOP EMMY and #8 HEARY OF HANISCH in this field and those two could battle for the early lead and joined by some others.

The contention could assist #3 HOLY IMAGE one that is a longer shot to win though comes into this race with form and progressive form this season and can pick up horses for a minor share. #1 FANCY HILL is worth a mention given the dominant effort closing out 2023 with the maiden win. That race jumped up from the others as she jumped off the screen and if that is a representation of who she is, she can be in the mix as well.

#6 GIANNO makes some changes for this race, changes that have been in the cards in the past to come together here. In terms of class, they were entered for the MCL tag before the initial start and between the two starts here this season. One of those was back on 5/5 under similar conditions to today, a scratch when those races were taken off the turf and the connections scratching from a similar MCL event earlier this month at HS Indy to run here instead.

It is interesting that C. Ulloa picks up the call as Cohen was named on GIANNO on 5/5 and lands on FTS #8 CUPID’S WAR instead. This one has some gaps in the works though some upbeat moves at the same time. The works are not as snappy for #3 I O FEDRO though has plenty of fitness in the series and in capable hands for today’s conditions.

In terms of the more experienced types, #9 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has recorded some of the higher figures and takes the class drop for the first time to suggest intent. Today’s par is just slightly lower than their prior grass starts and with that noted they must step up. #4 TEMPLE FOOL moved up with the class drop with the races coming off the TURF last out and should move up on the grass based on their physicality and the lone grass sprint start last summer. 

While not the “most likely” winner #4 JULYNNE has a look showing up here on this circuit and overall upside to transfer in this field. She will make the change to HAW though was entered a couple of times here last season unable to get into a race. Her debut was eye-catching earning a follow and off that race she continued to improve number wise in the sophomore season. Keying off those numbers, those figures were not far off some of her main rivals in this group. She will make the change to the route distance, though as good a time as many showing progress in this third start off the layoff and some confidence off the recent win.  

#1 VISIONISTA is capable of rebounding and her effort under similar conditions on 4/13 sits in line with #5 CALISUE coming back from her place finish on 5/5 and looking to hold her form and compete at this level. Trip wise VISIONISTA could benefit from the race shape whereas CALISUE could find contention with #3 BLESSED ANNA (one that steps up and does not hold an edge as the projected favorite) and #7 IZZY’S MONSTER in this field. 

#10 WOODCOCK FLIGHT moves up off their current form and a class edge exiting the recent KY events along with the OP allowance. Number wise they have remained consistent and with efforts that should transfer naturally on this circuit. Cohen landing here is notable picking up live mounts and riding well this meet.

Cohen was also named aboard #1 DAPPER DUDE when they were entered and scratched with the races moved to the main track last week. Overall DUDE moves up on the TURF and should present value in this full field off the recent running lines and finishing positions. His current form coming into this race is a bit stronger than what may appear keying off the company lines in the FG allowance races and subtle trips on this circuit while waiting to get back to the TURF.

Returning from the FG turf allowance races #6 BATTLE SCARS has the edge over #5 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE as they show up on this circuit. Odds wise they could be closer come post time and both must step up while C’EST could present a move forward second off the long layoff with prior turf efforts on par for this event; and BATTLE one that has some consistency though often that comes in the form as coming up short on the win end without excuse. 

This race starts with analyzing #5 SKY MASTER the new face showing up on this circuit and taking a massive class drop in the process. His debut earned one if not the highest recorded figure in this field and set the pace staying on as the BOS before tiring and drifting (NO_FINISH, NO_LINE) late. The second start could be given a pass as they wheeled right back and took a big step up in class claimed from the debut and first start for Mason. The barn does take a big drop, a move that does not inspire much confidence and seems they are willing to get out and move on from this one.

SKY MASTER showing the early speed from the debut could make things tougher on some of the other front runners in this field including #4 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD as shown with those two clear on the Plot. That potential scenario for the two could set up the stalking “Squares” to try and capitalize on the pace scenario for an upset.

#7 MY TENNIS SHOES has been at this level this season and while he has had some issues at the break has shown run in spots and can be upgraded from those efforts and with A. Centeno aboard. Going back to the FG season he recorded a BTL place finish in February and B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level on 3/2. While analysis and preference to MY TENNIS SHOES, a case can be made for all of those “Square” runners if the strategy is to take on and play against SKY MASTER and SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD.