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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri May 31st, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 GOLDY'S LOCK returns with a little more time between starts and the class relief to move up all around.

#7 PATTY VAN TWINKLE will give up recency from the extended 516-day layoff though considerable class relief that should move her up naturally. She earned one of the higher figures in the field over this CD main in her juvenile debut (and catching future graded stakes winners on this track) before the shift to TP and the long layoff that followed the lone January 2023 start. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 TRIAL re-routed here from the Eight Belles (G2) and upgraded in that race as well as here cutting back to the one-turn things should line up with her foundation. In the Bourbonette Oaks she was one step away going a bit further than her ideal and should be sitting on a peak effort back at ONE_TURN and to the CD main track then scene of her debut maiden win last year.

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 EXPENSIVE CUT turned in a competitive effort at this level back in November and claimed out of that event stepped up at Oaklawn in contentious and higher par events. Those races to start off the year were also contested around two turns and this one turn mile might turn out to be a key change. 

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 DEPICTION finds some class relief despite taking on older for the first time and should be the right spot after some adversity in stakes company. He caught TRAFFIC in the Bourbon (G2) projected to IMPROVE out of the Dania Beach racing against the dynamic and off that race turned in a BTL effort in the Transylvania (G3) last month at KEE. 

#1 TIVERTON still has some questions to answer as far as where he fits on class and how far he wants go as his ideal. With that said, a case can be made he has yet to show his best stateside given the placement, post position timing and trips in those limited starts. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS projects to be a heavy favorite in this spot making his seasonal debut. The connections will take this more conservative spot in allowance company, a mix read rather than jumping back into stakes company. Physically he is not the most efficient mover and from the rail the will likely try to be forward or work to get out behind horses. Overall this could just be the right field and could work out here though one to follow going forward as he will need to dominate this group to push in stakes company,

#2 HOWLING TIME could be the biggest threat while being his biggest hurdle. The recent layoff lines comes back into play here and to be fair he presents upside off those races timing and trip, especially with a return to CD. 

Woodbine Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 NATIVE PRINCE has a look to "wire' the field and upside as he makes his second start of the season coming back from visual PREP and NO_PUSH. 

Woodbine Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 PEGGY might be the most interesting of the experience runners in this field making some changes in this spot. Going back to her debut, she made that first start on the grass with adversity in the trip, though overall visuals to suggest she would require class relief (DROP) and added ground (STRETCH) those changes she finds here. She presents some upside wheeling right back from the 5/5 event (one next out winner, Make Magic) in this second start off the layoff, a rider change to Wilson, the rider named twice before the September debut and again closing weekend (12/16) unable to make that race.