Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 7 Number Cruncher 2 Price Control 9 Get On Sunshine

T 7 Call Me Go 3 Tactical Mounds 2 Hp Mama B

P 10 Storm Shadow 9 Funtime Bayama 2 Fast Louie

P 5 Its My Show 9 Seven Colors 3 All Class

T 3 Oh Well 4 Osceola 5 Kierkegaard

P 8 Newsroom 5 Captains Quarters 2 Nijinsky

P 9 Stone Carver 1 Codename Cigar Box 6 Southwind Sambucca

P 4 Why Not Now 8 Huntinthelastdollar 2 Macs Delight

P 8 Write Me A Rose 7 Saulsbrook Victor 6 Wheels On Fire

P 8 Saulsbrook Ian 1 Kopi Luwak 4 Leave It To Leo

#7 COME ON LADY caught the eye on debut with a sneaky good effort last year at MNR and caught the eye in the paddock (PRERACE+) here two weeks ago. She wheels right back from that race and WIDE trip upgrading her into today’s race.

COME ON LADY will meet some fellow rivals from that 5/18 common race: #1 MISS MIKOS perhaps will be the most obvious of the bunch given the place finish and overall solid effort as she had to RUSH up into a DUEL (and given preference as the Q1 Square over Circle #5 LIONS LAW) following a stumble (TROUBLES+) and bumped around coming out of the gate. #6 IRISH SPARK also had a rough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start and made a legit MOVE that gives her another look right back in here. #4 JOYZELLA is tougher to back on the win end (DROP) though can return to cone of her better effort including the 4/20 B- effort to get right back in the mix. 

#1 CHARLIE LIGHTNING should be tough in this spot and returning under similar conditions first off the claim for Hugo Rodriguez. His speed figures stand out as some of the higher and consistently higher than many in this field on their best day.

Looking at the Plot, CHARLIE LIGHTNING has enough early speed to keep #2 MAD DRAGON honest up front as he attempts to find another “LONE” trip stepping up in class. The class drop could benefit #6 OVER CALENDARED finds a change in class that could be effective based on his current form. His Surface/Distance form is similar (Plot) to rival #3 FUTURE VISION one that has had some subtle trips this season and while they all have the “horse to beat” a share is not out of the question. 

The early pace should be honest with the “Sun” Contention and higher 86 SpeedRate with most of the field in Quad I/III and above the par line. That upgrades the two Quad II/IV runners: #1 T LAW has turned in competitive races at this level and figures on par looking to give trainer I. Moreno that second (at the time of this analysis) career training win. #7 BOURBON LIFE turned in a BTL effort making a WIDE CLOSE and showing GRIT in the place finish back on 4/7. The connections stepped up and wheeled back in an allowance on the turf at HS Indy in the next start and returned to form with a competitive race at this level along with T LAW earning a B- OptixGRADE and those two the only runners here with the lack of “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines. 

On class and figures, #3 MISS RIVER RAT is the clear-cut horse to beat. She has often been her own biggest hurdle with the “gate” issues the pattern of SLOG, TROUBLE_S going back to her debut and often tough to shake playing a role in her race record. The big edge today should assist if ever to overcome even if she again gives the others a head start.

Looking at the Plot, there is a level of “Sun” Contention though paired with the lower SpeedRate, all below the Par Line. The M. Boyce pair of #2 DEVIL and #4 RUMBRANT fits in that area, #6 CLOEY ATTACK is right there and as she makes her second start of the season (PREP) a move forward could be projected today giving her the Q1 EP edge over #7 BOYCE’S BANDITA. 

#3 DOROTHY CROWFOOT makes her belated return to the races and Hawthorne keying off the dominant (B+) debut win last year. She was not as effective the following two starts though to be far she was in tough in both with WIDE trips up against stakes company in August and met stakes runners in the October KEE allowance closing out 2023.  Tough to compare the shorter 4.5f dash sprint races to other types of distances though if the 87 figure from the debut last July can compare here that number is as fast as the top efforts from the established older horses in this field including #4 SAMARITA.

Looking to get real creative underneath, #1 SECRET OPERATION had a slight excuse on 5/5 as she was unprepared at the break and chasing at the route distance. Her sprint races under similar allowance conditions are on the softer on the win end though capable to get a minor share as a less “obvious” runner in this field. 

#3 STOLICH is upgraded with the added ground just as they were on 5/11 when compromised with the TACTIC- and TROUBLE trip. They wheeled right back on 5/19 and improved with the B- OptixGRADE at the level however given no favors with the shorter distance. Given the PREP coming off the layoff on 4/27 and the noted trips since he has not had the chance to run a top effort and those better races from last season make him a prime contender.

#5 ANCIENT MAN has select races that stack up as competitive as any in this field and appears intent today with the class drop making his first start at this lower claiming level. His form this season is sneaky keying off some subtle trips (BTL 4/13) and wheeling right back from the 5/26 event when he was unprepared at the start.

#4 ARMAVIR is one that improved with racing last season and is on a similar progressive pattern coming into this race. His numbers are not as strong as some others (#6 PLAIN OR PEANUT) though presents upside as a lightly raced 4yo that might not have shown his best yet.

Filly #2 JOCELYN is not far out of it while taking the change in class, a slight rise despite the change in claiming tag. The weight break is notable however she has been racing light and that alone should not move her up here though will pick up a rider change to Centeno, a rider that has had success for this barn this season. 

#2 AVASARLA comes out of a contentious layoff return on 5/11 and might have needed the race as she was “cold” on the board and restless in the GATE. Some intent could be in play as they wheel right back here and with Centeno back aboard, the primary rider from prior seasons.

#8 ESSENTIAL BELLA was also in that 5/11 common race and turned in a strong effort, a B OptixGRADE with the BLANKET show finish. She was claimed out of that event and back in one week where intent did not appear in play stepped up in class shifting to the turf though should hold conditioning from that WIDE trip returning here, essentially given three weeks since her last “race.”

#1 STACK SHACK has races that make her competitive and some subtle form this year with the CLOSE and GALLOP+ on 4/20. She is required to return to top form to competition though perhaps this could be the time with the change in class and O. Mojica aboard especially can be given the upgrade with the front wrap removal. The surface switch also comes into play with #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA one that recorded some of her higher figures on the turf/synth and has struggled to translate those figures to the dirt, something that creates less value here at the ML.

#11 SADE PURSE could be worth keeping in the mix and could be dismissed with the post position in this full field. She will make her second start of the meet though going back to the 5/19 event when she was making her first start on this circuit might have required the race with the timing coming out of the TAM events. She has back numbers prior to the longer layoff should she run back to those races she is a major player. The same could be said for #12 SUPORB one that started to find her top form last summer at BTP with those effort on par though too some racing to get there and could be concerned with the layoff here as well as the outside post with her early speed and must work out a trip (along with a top effort) in this full field.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK is lighter to make a top contender case for, though looking at the Plot and the Contention she could pick up horses from off the pace (Q4 Square) for a minor share at longer odds. 

The lone turf race on the card is weather dependent as some rain could fall on Saturday and adjustments will be required on race day with a potential surface switch and with some changes to the field with many on the outside that could get in.

ML favorite #10 DANVILLE is logical in that role and while entered in the main body of the field and capable on the TURF his current figures on the main track and the class change move him up naturally. While obvious in that role, this is a deep contentious field where one could look for an upset.

#1 STORM’S REFLECTION is worth a look and versatile either way. They present upside in this second start back off the layoff and returning from the 4/7 event, a WEATHER day with poor track conditions from prior rains and the trip had them RUSH into a Very Fast (X_FLOW) early pace from a poor start and prior form from last year fits on par. He has enough early speed to keep a runner like #4 BRUCE BANNER honest upfront and should be the longer odds of the two.

#7 PINBALLER also brings in early speed something to assist stablemate #2 DYNABLUE – one that could be looking for the turf though in form for this fourth start this season and going back to opening day waiting for this one to find the right spot off that sneaky strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ effort. Similar considerations given to #6 ROGUE ELEMENT one that has yet to be in a position to show their best this season and coming into this third start of the meet brings in subtle and progressive form that should be under the radar and has surface versatility.

#8 RED HORNET has some buried form this season and Vanden Berg has sent out some very live runners as of late and this one could follow that current trend. As far as the races this season, he had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE opening (3/24) weekend and following that race wheeled right back with the front wraps added and the race shape on 4/7 was not his ideal and played out on the track and the outcome. 

The day kicks off with state-bred maidens as it looks like the favorite should be very tough. 1-MISS MIKOS was upset as the choice last out but it was by a first timer from the Robertson barn who looked well intended. The break did hurt her as well but with clear sailing today she will be hard to beat. 7-COME ON LADY posted an improved effort in her last. She may benefit from the outside draw as she should be able to rate close early and could run on late. Let's see if she can continue to improve. 6-IRISH SPARK added blinkers last out but takes them off today. She raced ok in that spot but the slow break was costly. She looks to still be figuring things out and may offer some value in here.

Much like Miss Mikos in the first, it's going to be tough to beat 1-CHARLIE LIGHTNING in this spot. He was claimed off a second place effort at this level last out and has enough tactical speed to contend early in here. With some pace to his outside, expect him to tuck in right behind the early leaders and take over in the lane. 7-IRONMAN RICHIE posted some efforts last season that would make him a major threat. The main question if is he will need a race off the layoff as he has worked well toward the return. 2-MAD DRAGON has speed as he was able to steal one last time out. He got a little break off that race but could be primed to try to steal one once again.

With the expected pace in this race, 1-T LAW should get the perfect trip. With the rail draw and second straight around two turns, expect him to wait and rally in the lane. 5-SHARP STICK has speed as he drops from an allowance race where he hung around late last out. He should be forwardly placed once again but may have company. 6-LITTLE STEVEN battled the entire way as the favorite last out and should be forwardly placed once again. He's a game racehorse and may provide a bit more value this time out.

Let's see if 7-BOYCE'S BANDITA has enough speed to clear from the outside in here. With the lack of early pace and second start at the distance there's the potential that she may not have to work too hard to clear and could have something left in the lane. 3-MISS RIVER RAT will need some pace to chase as she figures to rally late. She ran on in each of her last three and runs into some more Boyce runners in here. Let's see if she can get up in time. 2-DEVIL is one of those Boyce runners in with a shot as she ran a big race in her maiden score last out. She has tactical speed and may be best off if she can rate a bit closer early in here.

4-SAMARITA loves Hawthorne and could get a perfect trip as the likely favorite in here. She was a good winner in the slop at Keeneland in April before chasing while going shorter here in her last. With the stretch back to three quarters she should be able to stalk the pace and run on late. The pace figures to come from 5-BEEHIVE as she has been solid in winning her last couple. She will be the one out front with Samarita early and could benefit if she gets the jump on her. 3-DOROTHY CROWFOOT adds Lasix today as she has been working forwardly toward her return. After a big debut score she has run respectable races in her next two starts. Let's see if she's ready off the bench today.

Let's try to catch a price in here as 5-ANCIENT MAN makes the quick return. He didn't show much while sprinting in the mud last weekend but his route three back is good enough to put him in the mix. Maybe he can rate and run down the speed in the stretch. 4-ARMAVIR is another that should be closing ground late. He ran a huge race at a huge price last time out and has the ability to string a couple together. 8-PALHACO ran the race last out that I was expecting from him two back. He has tactical speed and just needs to avoid a pace battle with Hawaiian Hide Away early.

Fingers crossed this one stays on the grass as this is a very competitive bunch. The turf could make the difference for 8-RED HORNET as he has posted all of his best efforts on the grass. He should be able to rate close in a spot where there isn't a ton of early pace. 4-BRUCE BANNER ran a good race over the Tampa turf two back as he comes off a bit of a layoff into here. He has the potential to show some speed as well as the only question is if he will need a race coming back. 6-ROGUE ELEMENT has shown little in his last couple but may be a different horse on turf. He has three victories on the grass on his career and has posted some solid drills since his last start. He's worth a look at a price.

1-MISS MIKOS seems worth the short price. She went off as the odds-on favorite in her local 2024 debut but her chances were compromised when she stumbled at the start and she had to settle for second place. That shouldn’t happen today. 6-IRISH SPARK finished well behind top choice in last but she also had some trouble. Takes blinkers off after a one-race experiment wearing them. Beware sharp connections. 5-LIONS LAW adds blinkers. She stopped badly in last but displayed far better speed in her previous race. Maybe the addition of blinkers will help her to focus.

1-CHARLIE LIGHTNING ran well in his local debut, just not quite well enough. Still, he did finish second. He was claimed by a much hotter barn from that race. Worked easily since. Seems like the one to beat. 2-MAD DRAGON wired the field in last when dropped to the $5k claiming level. Takes on better here but he does appear to be the best of the speed. Might grab control quickly and never look back. 6-OVER CALENDARED was overmatched in his first two local starts this year but he’s dropping to a far better level for this race. He finished in the money in his previous two starts in Louisiana while racing at this level. His figures say he fits this field very well. Don’t overlook.

Very tough race. It’s not often you see so many closely-matched runners. 7-BOURBON LIFE could get the right trip. He finished behind some of these runners in last but was moving well late. Gets the top rider today. Could be tough at a square price. 6-LITTLE STEVEN narrowly lost his last at this level despite dueling for the lead the entire race. He was favored in that event and might be again. However, he loves the front end and, if anything, there appears to be even more front-end speed in this race. 1-T LAW finished slightly behind Little Steven in last but might have been moving better late. Again, the pace of this race could be even hotter. Could edge by all of them late.

3-MISS RIVER RAT could have dead aim late. She had little chance against a runaway winner in last but she did finish well clear of the rest of the field, including many of these rivals. Can’t guarantee the pace will set up as well this time but the two that led for most of last will be entered right back. 7-BOYCE’S BANDITA finished a well-beaten third in last, about three lengths behind top choice, but she does look like the best of the speed. Could carry that speed farther in her second start against winners. 5-REBA ATTACK didn’t fire in last against the top pair but she did finish second in her previous two starts at this level, beating the top pair each time. She’s eligible to bounce back.

Eleven-time winner 4-SAMARITA certainly looks tough. At one point last year she won six in a row. However, it has to be noted that she hasn’t been able to win in allowance company, though she did come close in last. Like her speed and love her versatility. Maybe this will be her day. 3-DOROTHY LIGHTFOOT is an interesting runner. This $500,000 purchase won the first start of her career but seemed to tail off a bit in subsequent starts. She’s making her first start of the year and will be able to utilize Lasix for the first time. Her workouts have been, for the most part, exceptional. Definitely worth a look. 5-BEEHIVE, like Dorothy Lightfoot, is a 3yo meeting older. She trounced the fields in her last two races. Those races were against Illinois breds but both were highly impressive. Wouldn’t take her chances lightly.

5-ANCIENT MAN meets his easiest field ever. He hasn’t gotten close since his maiden victorying November but his speed figures seem to indicate that he’s among the fastest members of this field and he’s finally at the right level to wake up. 6-PLAIN OR PEANUT also drops and is another finding an easier group of fore. Had a couple good races in Ohio back in the winter. If he can regain that form here he’s likely to be one of the top contenders and could even give his apprentice rider her first win of the meet. 7-HAWAIIAN HIDEAWAY ran well in all three starts this meet. He graduated in his first start of the meet, finished fourth the next time out and third in last. Slight improvement puts him right there.

2-AVASARALA needed last. They raced her over her head just to give her a trip over the track. Drops to a better level. Switches back to her regular rider. Could put away the rest of the speed and finish with something left. 9-SUMMER AT THE SPA drops in class, turns back in distance, and goes from turf to dirt. Almost all of her previous success came on the lawn but this field did come up easy. 10-LADY ATLANTIC just finished second versus similar. She displayed far better speed in last than she has in a long time. Could stay prominent throughout.

10-DANVILLE could be tough on or off the turf. He hasn’t raced on turf since 2022 but he had plenty of success on grass and was only kept on the main track since he did so well there last year. He finished third in his two races since getting claimed by this barn and was facing allowance foes in those races. He seems to hold a considerable advantage over most of these rivals. 11-JEFF THE LION is entered for main track only. He finished a non-threatening fourth of six in last but he was making his first start of the year. Should be far fitter for this contest. 4-BRUCE BANNER has deceptive speed. He hasn’t shown much for a while but he’s dropping in class and will be reunited with Julio Felix as pilot and Julio was aboard for both wins by this gelding. 5-EDEN PARADISE can finish with a rush. He’s making his first start of the year with somewhat inconsistent drills but could be ready to compete at this level. 

Race 5:  5 - 4 - 3

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,5 / 5,6,7 / 2,8,12 / 2,4,8,10   ($54)

Nice field of seven allowance runners sprinting 6f. Talented runner #5 Beehive (3-1), an Ill.-bred daughter of Temple City, was able to stalk and pounce last time vs. fellow Ill.-breds and crush their souls in the stretch, winning by 6+. Now, she faces open company, but her talent and speed figs fit vs. this field. With a likely effort / trip today, Beehive has a great chance to “sting” another field, this time at a better price than the 50c to the dollar she paid in her last.

Race 6:  7 - 5 - 6

If you agree with my top pick, #7 Hawaiian Hide Away (7-2), you have to hope he is able to clear the field early and go gate-to-wire. In his last effort, he got caught up in a fast yearly pace duel going 47 and change to the half. The horse that beat him, Izeondec, came back and won last weekend. Even if he doesn’t clear, he can sit off of Palhaco just to his outside and in theory go by in the lane while holding off the closers.

Race 7:  12 - 2 - 8

In one of the most wide-open races of the day for $5k claimers, I’m going with a huge longshot in the #12 Suporb (20-1) for very low percentage trainer and jockey. My main angle here is that the 5-yr. old mare has been facing tougher company outside of Illinois. Even though the class level is the same, these horses are not as talented as the ones she faced out of town. Not only that, she has worked twice and trainer Spagnola has had success with this type of break (4/17, 24%). Going with a flyer in a wide-open field, why not?!

Race 8:  4 - 8 - 10

#4 Bruce Banner (7-2) has only 2 wins from 23 lifetime starts, but was out-of-town for most of those and very competitive in his losses. I like his tactical speed, and with the rails out 20ft, speed should hold better than usual. Perhaps the break has done him some good, although I don’t like the light worktab. The presence of veteran jockey Felix is a plus.