Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 2 Anne Booney 5 Ginger Tree Lena 7 Arroya’s Dance

T 4 Forky 1 Kandy Sweet 8 Light Blue Movers

P 8 Molly Kool 5 Fiftyshadesofbliss 3 Devious Dame

P 3 Watch Me Ride 2 New Number Who Dis 1 How About Murph

P 9 Fame And Power 1 Trouble’s A Brewin 4 Black Cat

P 2 Lyons Addiction 4 Running ON Faith 7 Carmen N The Devil

P 9 Sparrow Hanover 8 Cyclone Banner 1 Joelsy Hanover

P 1 Win Not Lou 2 Fromashestoashes 9 Why Tomorrow Ray

T 2 Royal Precedent 5 Bamboo 1 Oberto

P 1 Joker Rockwell 2 Panther Time 8 Thornbush Hanover

P 8 Birthday 1 Elver Hanover 5 Nashing Hill

P 3 The Longest Yard 8 Master Yossi 1 Captainofrocknroll

P 3 Tremendous Day 4 Kneedeep N Custard 6 Coop A Loop

T 2 Headoverheels 3 Mo Bay 7 Joggingtothebank

P 2 Ashton Hill Dave 4 Major Keene 6 Pacin Grayson

P 2 What’s Your Beef 4 Itsmycheck Gb 6 Print Media

#5 SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER worked a very efficient 9.4 at the March sale and has trained consistently and forwardly since with plenty of conditioning and speed for this race with the top connections needing little introduction and likely recognized on the board.

Rivelli will also send out #1 GOOD GOD one of two IL-bred geldings in this field with live rider in O. Mojica some steady local works with #6 COOLTHING shipping in from FAN.

Visuals will be the separator for #2 LIT MISS HAT TRICK (also trained by H. Lynch) and #3 J Z’S LAST SCHANCE coming into this race with “bullet” works and based on the ML could receive public support first out. 

#6 PEGGY’S WAY comes into this race with current form and has been knocking on the door at this level this season. She could work out the right trip bringing in early speed and while she might not be as quick to the first call as #2 MAGGIE E, she can keep pace and first run on that rival.

Number wise #5 TRIBEST has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and from the same common races with PEGGY’S WAY recorded the same B- OptixGRADES in the process. #4 RESOLUTION also recorded the B- OptixGRADE in the 5/18 common race, her first start on the circuit and while she was upgraded with the changes on the day still requires price compensation with the SLOG pattern.

#1 SWEET SMILA also returns from the 5/18 common race and while upgraded in the analysis on the day she was downgraded in the paddock (PRERACE-) not making quite the impression physically coming off the layoff. That is something to monitor here and can be given an upgrade with a change in appearance. 

The distance change should move up #7 RAVIN’S TOWN one that has shown some run in their three races to date though running out of excuses should the NO_FINISH continue here. #5 MIDTERM could also move up with the foundation and one that had to show more early speed three weeks ago, taken out of his runstyle that day into a duel though should have plenty of fitness from that race returning here.

First time starters, #10 LICENSE TO STEAL and #11 HONORANDPRINCIPLE appear live for their connections, patient connections that have had to enter and scratch on a few occasions waiting for the grass race.

#9 KING OF THE PALACE also waiting for a grass race scratched from the common race with those two back on 5/11 and while they have the form on the grass to go off of, there has not been much figure progression and keying off the race under similar conditions here last August a DROP could be projected.

#1 YOUNG MISCHIEF and #2 LA PERFECT BEE are the two older runners in the main body of the field and given a mention from the 5/4 common race. That race was DELAY with the horses waiting in the paddock and on the track for a long time on KY Derby day and long enough for LA PERFECT BEE to completely washout and lose his race to the point of a late scratch while already on the track. 

This is a tough race as every runner in this field has positives and negatives. That includes ML favorite #5 KENNESAW returning from the layoff that allows them to run protected here. They will give up recency though did win under similar conditions closing out 2023 in August though had to take the drop at the time to find their form to compete. Rivelli claiming that day was notable as KENNESAW started out his career for this barn.

#3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY also found the class relief the right move to move them up last season and at the right level to compete though will give up recency and requires the right trip and top effort at this sprint distance.

#2 D’ARCHER could present intent as they return to make their second start off the layoff and the front wraps added on return created some cause for pause three weeks ago. Santiago looking for their first win on this circuit will be back aboard and as a regular rider with success and showing early speed in prior seasons (keep #1 HURTS SO BAD honest to their inside) suggests intent with that change.

#7 DEMAND RANSOM had a long shot look last out and with the blinkers added took part in the duel, a move that was not quite expected and played a role in the result. A shift to the outside here along with the current form and today’s race shape could work in their favor and offer longer odds than #4 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and #6 UNCAPTURED PULSE all three on similar form and figures coming into this race. 

Tough to knock the race record for #7 BILL’S HONOR and the connections stepping up in class and circuit to run here. His return on 5/4 earned a strong figure and strong effort on the track though some REGRESS could be in play and the concern especially if they are the favorite in this race out to back up that effort with the changes here and even from a pace standpoint.

Block holds representation with the pair in this race: #3 GOOD APPLE will get another shot against open company and upgraded from the 5/12 race starting a new form cycle (36-day) that afternoon and had TROUBLE_S and inside RUSH though to their credit continued to move forward number wise. The progression on numbers came into play for #8 MOONLIGHT ROAD breaking their maiden on 4/14 though had some factors in their favor and find another rider change the eighth rider in as many starts and the blinkers on here as well.

Cohen shifts to #6 SAWYER FOX another taking on open company though will give up recency and trip noted with BILL’S HONOR (and perhaps the two inside runners) in this field should they go out looking for the LONE trip that was successful and B+ dominant breaking their maiden off the bench last August. Class and progression also remains a hurdle for #4 CLYDE’S GREEN GO a consistent 7yo though that might not translate to much upside, upside that is required to win.

#5 CHAMPAGNE MIKE could present upside in just this second start. He will face a rise in class taking on winners and while he did not catch the strongest maiden field on debut, he showed up with a strong B+ effort to suggest he can take the class rise and slight improvement has him on par with many of the main players here.

#1 STRANGE ARRANGE comes into this race with the consistent higher figures though some hurdles in this spot. He will take a considerable step up in class and coming off a HARD win three weeks ago. #2 BEEEASY finds a lateral change in class though has struggled at the allowance level on the win end, the C/C+ races not quite enough for the top spot.  

Tough to knock the race record for #7 BILL’S HONOR and the connections stepping up in class and circuit to run here. His return on 5/4 earned a strong figure and strong effort on the track though some REGRESS could be in play and the concern especially if they are the favorite in this race out to back up that effort with the changes here and even from a pace standpoint.

Block holds representation with the pair in this race: #3 GOOD APPLE will get another shot against open company and upgraded from the 5/12 race starting a new form cycle (36-day) that afternoon and had TROUBLE_S and inside RUSH though to their credit continued to move forward number wise. The progression on numbers came into play for #8 MOONLIGHT ROAD breaking their maiden on 4/14 though had some factors in their favor and find another rider change the eighth rider in as many starts and the blinkers on here as well.

Cohen shifts to #6 SAWYER FOX another taking on open company though will give up recency and trip noted with BILL’S HONOR (and perhaps the two inside runners) in this field should they go out looking for the LONE trip that was successful and B+ dominant breaking their maiden off the bench last August. Class and progression also remains a hurdle for #4 CLYDE’S GREEN GO a consistent 7yo though that might not translate to much upside, upside that is required to win.

#5 CHAMPAGNE MIKE could present upside in just this second start. He will face a rise in class taking on winners and while he did not catch the strongest maiden field on debut, he showed up with a strong B+ effort to suggest he can take the class rise and slight improvement has him on par with many of the main players here.

#1 STRANGE ARRANGE comes into this race with the consistent higher figures though some hurdles in this spot. He will take a considerable step up in class and coming off a HARD win three weeks ago. #2 BEEEASY finds a lateral change in class though has struggled at the allowance level on the win end, the C/C+ races not quite enough for the top spot.  

The change in surface and complexion of the field could move up #9 SET THE PACE as she looks to do that this afternoon and given the TACTIC- returning off the layoff on 4/28 projected to do so and unable after breaking a step SLOG and rating WIDE. 

#8 QUILTING PARTY could also be upgraded with the surface switch though a top effort is still required. 

#1 COMMAND POINT asserted her dominance (B+) off the bench with the win three weeks ago. The connections looking to come back and pair up outcomes is not out of the question and looking at the Plot could find a similar trip to repeat. #4 LEA RO had to settle for place though still recording a “winning” effort (B) for the effort on the day. She should continue to hold her form and the added extra half furlong can only help. The trip should be similar here and similar to COMMAND POINT (Large Square) the two should have pace to target with the field remaining intact with the “Sun” Contention and high 82 SpeedRate.

Had to do a double-take to see the drop on #2 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER a horse that has been competitive against the higher class this season. He turned in a BTL effort on the main track on 4/28 and had a subtle trip (TACTIC-) on the turf two weeks ago. He should move up naturally on the massive drop and in today’s race shape as a Quad II Square to stalk a “Fire” Contention and honest 34 SpeedRate.

#8 UNIFIED WEEKEND could take part in that first flight (Quad I Square) though has shown versatility and in current form for this race. He is far more obvious than his stablemate #5 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR one that is looking to get back to top form though does have that (Quad II/IV Square) Plot position/shape in their favor and IMPROVE Projection back on 4/6.  

#6 CARTE BLANCHE is part of that “contention” though a solid Square and form coming off the B OptixGRADE in the BLANKET finish and with #10 ROCKET HOTSHOT making up ground into a Slow early and late pace that assisted LONE winner, #3 BLURT – one that is unlikely to find that same trip here with #1 PARKER on the inside and #4 READTHETRANSCRIPT to his outside and stretch out #11 MODAZZLE in this group.

#7 KRAMDEN will find the drop wheeling right back and while his form this season leaves a lot to be desired, he has back numbers that fit and one to monitor visually as he did not catch the eye PRERACE- last week, though did take some money in the double. #9 WICKED SURPRISE is in the same conversation when it comes to current form though back numbers that are competitive and on par with a notable rider change as D. Cohen takes the call. 

The Winebaugh barn could be turning things around sending out a live runner on the Saturday card and with #8 MCMONEY upgraded here with their current form and this race moving to the main track.

#5 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY has had to be patient waiting for the grass to make a return though could work to their benefit as they were entered in an open $25k last week and that race a higher par than today, and a much better contender fit here.

#9 COMEDIC TIMING has some sneaky turf form and could move up with the surface switch here. His form coming in from TP fits on par and this barn has been second out live a form reversal would be no surprise today.

#3 PATH TO SUCCESS certainly moves up on the main track though could be given consideration on the turf as well. He started off his career on the grass and his number consistent at the time in those limited starts fit with his current form here. 

Good to see our first two-year-old race of the season as a mix of the boys and girls line up. Going to start with the filly, 3-J Z'S LAST SCHANCE as she was entered to face the girls in a race that didn't fill on Saturday and looks to take on the boys. She has worked very well leading up to her debut and appears to be very quick early. She will provide a little value with some quality runners from the Rivelli barn figuring to take some action but she may have some ability. 5-SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER debuts for Rivelli as she has a solid work pattern coming into here. She is well schooled from the gate and figures to be quick early. Expect her to take a good amount of action. 2-LIT MISS HAT TRICK comes in for trainer Harry Lynch off a very fast work from the gate at Fairmount. She could be the sleeper in the spot and is likely to provide some value.

There's a couple with early speed in here as things should set up nicely for 5-TRIBEST to rate and run on late. Tribest is overdue for the maiden breaker but runs for a barn that has had a fine meet and the insured fast pace ahead of her may make the difference. Let's see what kind of trip she gets in here. 6-PEGGY'S WAY is one of those with speed who figures to break her maiden soon. She battled in her last but gave way late when pressed. She's going to have company once again. Let's see if she can dig in and prevail. 2-MAGGIE E is very fast early but lacks the stamina needed to finished. With that said, she has found the board in 13 of 22 career starts and will be winging it again. She likes this track and if she can outkick Peggy's Way to the front, she could potentially steal this. A pace duel won't benefit either runner.

A few in here that have been trying to get onto the turf for some time as this is a quality bunch. Gave the nod to 7-RAVIN'S TOWN as he showed ability early in his career and has run a pair of fine races on the main track this meet as well. He could be the fastest to the front in here and if the course has a bit of give to it, it will figure to benefit those with early speed. 5-MIDTERM ran a nice race last out in a spot that came off the turf as he's another that has been looking for grass. He figures to settle just off the early pace in this race but did show more focus with the addition of blinkers last out. 8-RED RIZZLER could be the price play today as he ran a much improved race last out. He could benefit from a pace battle ahead of him as he figures to rate and run on late.

A horse that likes this Hawthorne strip, 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY has found the board in six of ten Hawthorne starts with three of those coming as victories. He figures to rate and run on late but with speed to the inside and outside in here, he may get the perfect trip. The only question is if he is ready off the one work off the layoff. 2-D'ARCHER is another that likes it at Hawthorne as makes his second start of the meet. He may have needed his last off the layoff but possesses some early speed and should be able to rate just off the early pace. 5-KENNESAW returns off the rest as he makes his first start back off the claim. He runs protected for the waiver in here which is a plus and has been very consistent in his workout pattern toward the return.

This is a quality bunch in a field that has a lot of early pace. Curious to see if that last start from 8-MOONLIGHT ROAD was just an off day as he should get a great pace setup ahead of him. He ran a big race in breaking his maiden two back and maybe the outside draw will help. Let's see if he can improve at a price in here. 1-STRANGE ARRANGE looks to be a good claim as he returned to win on the rise in his first off the claim. From the inside he figures to get sent once again. The main concern is how much company he has or if the connections choose to rate. He has been fantastic on the year though and looks to be ready to take on Allowance runners. 7-BILL'S HONOR is another that step up to the allowance ranks off three consecutive daylight scores. He is also very fast early and from the outside may choose to try to clear the lead.

Hard to overlook just how good 1-COMMAND POINT was over the softer turf last out as she took over into the lane and won easily. She goes a bit longer off that race and finds a couple in there that should set things up on the front end for her to close. Expect her to be very strong once again. 4-LEA RO also ran a fine race last out one the grass as she was chasing Command Point late. She has found the board in five of six over a wet turf so with an expected off turf, if races stay on, that will play to her benefit. 5-APRIL'S GEM had to overcome an outside draw in her last but was good enough to hold third in that spot.  She figures to rate closer early than the top two choices as that could benefit her chances if there isn't  a ton of pace in this race.

A very evenly matched bunch closes the day as on turf or dirt I expect 8-MCMONEY to be a factor. He was favored on the main track in his last couple and ran solid races, only to be beaten by 10-CATEGORY TEN in both but I do believe he is a slightly better horse on turf. A course with a little give shouldn't bother him either as he figures to even rate closer early on the grass. 10-CATEGORY TEN was impressive in his last couple as he is an unknown on grass. The barn has been strong in recent weeks and his tactical speed could put him in position to contend early. Let's see if he can make it three in a row. 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is likely turf only as he makes his first start of the year. He won three of his last four to close out 2023 and figures to sit mid pack early and run on late.

Our first race of the year for two year olds and it looks like it could feature a couple star fillies. 5-SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER is one of three fillies in this race but it’s not unusual for the boys and girls to face off this early in their career. This $200,000 auction purchase has more drills than the rest of her rivals and her last two were monstrous. She looks like she could be the real deal, at least for now. Been hearing about 3-J Z’S LAST SCHANCE for a couple months. She’s another filly. Her first two drills were bullets and while her gate drill wasn’t as fast as those of top choice, she apparently galloped out strong. She has a sneaky strong pedigree. Could be another good one. 1-GOOD GOD, stablemate of top choice, hasn’t been working nearly as well as his buddy but he does race for the top barn and gets one of the top riders in the irons.

5-TRIBEST ran well in all three local starts but finished behind Peggy’s Best the two times they met. However, she was less than a length behind her rival at the end of last and she seemed to have a little something left while Peggy was gassed late. If the expected speed duel does develop, it could benefit this filly. 6-PEGGY’S WAY was favored in last two but had to settle for second place both times. It’s likely that this speedy filly will be favored again. But she is likely to be pressured on the front end early which could cost her late.  2-MAGGIE E is a five-year-old still seeking her maiden win. She is the quickest member of this field but she’s making her 23^rd start as a maiden. Don’t think six furlongs is her best distance but do think she’ll act as a spoiler and help set the stage for Tribest’s mild late move.

This should be a great race, on or off the turf. It would be the first turf race for many in here but most of these runners also have good main-track form. That being said, have to go with 7-RAVIN’S TOWN. His well-bred $300k purchase finished second in his first two starts, both sprints, but couldn’t keep up with the talented Coach Jimi D when stretched out in a race originally carded for turf. However, his dirt sprint speed figures are the highest of any in here and he’s bred to love the lawn. Should be tough on either surface. 5-MIDTERM ran well in his three local starts. He owns competitive speed. He’s also bred for the weeds and could thrive if this race does stay on grass. 1-YOUNG MISCHIEF could be the sleeper. He faded late in his lone start but he’s as quick as any in here and he owns an impeccable turf pedigree. Not sure how 3-CANYON SHADOW would fare on turf but he did finish second in both of his races on dirt. 

5-KENNESAW will be tough. He hasn’t raced since getting claimed from a win in August which makes him eligible for this race. He isn’t eligible to be claimed (waiver claim) so his connections don’t have to worry about losing him. Guessing he’ll be worth the short price. 3-VERRAZANOINTHESKY is back off a layoff and seems like the only possible competition for top choice. He showed little at Gulfstream over the winter but he has often raced well here and he’s never been in this easy. 2-D’ARCHER needed last. He was facing an awfully salty group in his first start of the year and never got close but now he racing with a race under his belt. 

There is so much speed in this field that it almost looks like a quarter horse race. It’s the six and a half furlong distance that could make things interesting. It has to be noted that most of the speed runners haven’t really slowed at the end of six furlongs but the extra sixteenth of a mile came make the difference. I’m going to take a bit of a flyer with 6-SAWYER FOX. He wired the field to break his maiden against Illinois breds last year but it was his come-from-behind second-place finish, on turf, in his only other start that is interesting. This Catalano homebred makes his first start since September but he’s been popping bullet drills at Churchill in preparation for his return. Added to that, he’s racing as a gelding for the first time and he gets a 28% rider in his irons. Can surprise. 1-STRANGE ARRANGE, with eight wins, figures prominently. He’s three-for-three at Hawthorne. Will utilize his fourth different rider for his fourth Hawthorne start. Meets better here but appears to be as fast as anybody. 7-BILL’S HONOR is hard to figure. He has only met Illinois breds so far but he absolutely crushed the last three fields he faced. The speed figure he generated in last is the highest ever achieved by any of these runners. 3-GOOD APPLE has a pair of wins and a second in his three local starts. Like that he seems to finish his races with authority. 8-MOONLIGHT ROAD adds blinkers and could turn out to be the best closer in the race. 

1-COMMAND POINT just ran away from a similar field as the favorite. That was her first start of the year. She should only be stronger after that race and the extra distance of this contest should only enhance her chances. 4-LEA RO was well beaten by top choice in last but she was gaining late in a race that was shorter than her optimum. The extra sixteenth of this race just might make the difference. 2-SUMMER DAY had possibly the worst race of her career in last but know she’s better than that. Can bounce back in her second start of the year.

10-ROCKET HOTSHOT might get the trip, He just missed catching a surprise wire-to-wire winner in last. The pace of this race should set up even better. 6-CARTE BLANCHE finished slightly ahead of top choice in that last race. The seven-pound weight allowance his apprentice jockey gets could make the difference late. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER drops from a $50k claimer to $5. We know what often happens with droppers like that. Be very careful.

If this race stays on turf, 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY looks like the one to beat. He’s making his first start of the year but his barn wins at a lofty 29% rate with runners coming off similar layoffs. He won three of his last four starts but is still eligible because of the race conditions. On dirt 10-CATEGORY TEN might be best. He won his last two races at this level. See no reason that streak couldn’t continue. Wouldn’t like 9-COMEDIC TIMING on the main track but he faced some pretty good runners on turf in the past and had some success. 8-MCMONEY was favored in last two races won by Category Ten. Would think there would be a possibility of making amends if this race did get moved to the main track.

Race 5:  6 - 2 - 3

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,2,3,5,6,8 / 1 / 2,8,10 / 5,8  ($18)

This is a very nice field of allowance runners going 6 ½ furlongs. The pace appears to be lively early, but there are also some question marks. I’m choosing one of those “fuzzies” in #6 Sawyer Fox (5-1), who has not run since Sept. of last year. The 4yo Hit It a Bomb gelding is trained by Catalano and showed some massive potential last year, breaking his maiden (albeit state-bred) by 9 lengths. He’s been working lightning fast and hopefully will stalk the early speed to his inside. The presence of jockey Cohen gives me more confidence as well. Very interested to see what the gelding will do today.

Race 6:  1 - 2 - 4

#1 Command Point (9-5) crushed a bunch of these last time, and I see no reason to go against her today either. She’s very tough at this level and Cohen will be able to save ground throughout the race, and tip out in the lane. Unless she regresses 2nd time off the layoff and throws in a clunker, she’s a likely winner. 

Race 7:  8 - 2 - 10

In general, I prefer younger horses vs. older ones, especially if they’re over 7yo. Therefore, I’ll go to #8 Unified Weekend (4-1), who has much more upside than others and is first off the claim for Trainer Dizeo. Leading rider Mojica takes the reins, and this colt has nice tactical speed which will allow him to save some ground into the first turn from the 8-hole. He lost last time, but it was a contested pace the whole way. Maybe Mojica will sit off a bit and be more effective.

Race 8:  8 - 5 - 1

Let’s end the card with a winner and come home with #8 McMoney (4-1) in this $25k claimer. Even though he’s lost to Category Ten in his last two, whom he faces again today, this race is scheduled for turf, and surface on which McMoney appears to be faster than dirt. I’m not in love with the quickish turnaround in two weeks, but Felix stays on and if he can save some ground on one of the turns, he’ll have a big shot in the lane with the right trip.