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Wed June 5th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 11:45 AM CST
#6 ROYAL COURT has the pattern of layoff lines that must be addressed and while they come with the drop in class, the change in class is the right move. He has the one start in for the tag last year at TAM that lone race earning a B OptixGRADE. The MSW he was last seen in back in October has been productive and overall stronger group of horses than what they face today and had some adversity (TROUBLE_S, WIDE) in that start. Trainer T. Malloy has had a solid start since breaking out on their own and ROYAL COURT is in very capable hands.
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:14 PM CST
The early pace should be honest with both #2 I'M WIDE AWAKE and #4 CAN MAN DO both established front runners and should be hard sent for the lead and could find company with others to keep them honest up front.
That scenario should assist #5 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL one that finished a game (B, B-) series of starter allowance races at Oaklawn despite getting their picture taken. Trip could also upgrade #6 PICO D'ORO one that is not "win machine" looking for a win for the first time since 12/2020 though has been a consistent type and some intent keeping them protected and holds eligibility for this race with just the one $10k start from last summer.
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 12:43 PM CST
The form from the 4/30 MCL event has held up and with Patriarchal coming back CD last Thursday to dominate a $20k group. #3 MALIBLUE already ran back from that 4/30 event on 5/17 remained at the same $50k level and can be given a slight flow upgrade making a RUSH PRESSED X_FLOW before losing ground and returns with leading rider, J. Ortiz.
In addition, can upgrade #6 MO HOPE and #8 GRAND SAM from that event as they take the drop here to move up naturally.
#7 KEYPAD is one of two FTS and going out for a barn that had a strong May looking to carry that here with G. Ashton aboard, a rider that has been part of that success.
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Tough to trust #2 CHROMED IMPULSE as the controlling speed off the win visuals just 18-days ago to hold here. #1 HAPPYMAC could take advantage looking to return to both front running and winning ways.
#4 IMPROBABLE STORY turned in a competitive (B-) OptixGRADE under similar conditions last November albeit a four horse field on the day. They return with the drop in this second start back off the layoff in the right level to compete. #5 LEADER OF MEN another consistent in form runner that might need a tough more on the win end though kept in the mix.
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
#6 DIVINELY BOLT wheels right back from a BTL show finish in a race that had minimal change in running order. She is upgraded under similar conditions and fits today's race shape, a dynamic that suits her runstyle.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
#11 PROSPERO will need some racing luck to draw in though appears well-intended on return. With just the one start last year (a mildly productive event) he can also be treated as a FTS in this spot with the changes all around and the time off.
#10 ALCOVE is less exciting racing with the profile in their debut coming up short as the favorite and now switching to the turf does not inspire confidence. That event on 4/26 had a slightly lower par than today and should be kept in mind as both he and #5 TROUBLE'S ROARING project to gather plenty of public attention.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
ML favorite #3 SUNDANCE FEATURE earned a strong figure and dominant (B+) breaking her maiden last month, however was able to establish a Slow early and late pace and should find a more contentious (Fire) scenario here. #1 MIGHTY MADISON has been part of the early pace in the two more recent starts though arguably that is not her ideal runstyle and returning to the staling trips with upside from the juvenile season/figures along with the rider change to J. Ortiz could be the key to get back to a top effort.
Wed June 5th, 2024 |
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