Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-CHAOS REIGNS finished third in a tougher field in his local debut. Considering that race wasn’t at his best distance, it was impressive. Stretches out today. Will be hard to beat. 3-JET FLIGHT woke up when stretched out in his third start of the meet. His speed figure from last suggests that he would be marginally competitive with top choice but I love the tenacity he showed winning his last race. Returns at the right level. Might give them a run for the money. 6-SLAVA UKRANI moves up in class after getting claimed from last. He faded to second as the favorite in that race after leading by as much as six lengths at one point. If his new rider can reign in that early speed a bit, he could stay competitive throughout in this race and just might be able to wire the field.

Tough little race. Many of these rivals faced off in a similar races a few weeks ago but that contest was at five and a half furlongs while this five-furlong race is an entirely different creature. Those who ran out of gas late in that last race could have plenty left at the finish of this. But, going to take a bit of a flyer with 6-DOCS SEVEN. She finished third in that last race but thought she was moving best late. Like the switch to Mojica in the irons. There is an abundance of early speed in here. Might be able to get up late. Hard to ignore 1-MOVE IT BABY. She won her last two, beating many of this field. She came from a bit off the pace in those races but she owns plenty of early speed if she needs it. 8-RAMBERT fought hard for the lead in her local debut but ultimately got passed late by Move It Baby. But that was her first race of the year and this race is a sixteenth shorter. She won nearly $150k in turf sprints. Might put the rest of them away. 4-LIPLINER races for a barn that has been sneakily good with turf sprinters. 

It could finally be the day for 4-MINING CAMP. He’s making his 21st start as a maiden but so many of those races have been against better rivals. He finished second the last time he raced at this level. Seems likely to graduate in this one. 3-SKYLANE finished in the money in his last three. He’s another that finished second at this level in last. Looks like the main competition. 1-RAYFIELD makes his debut for the top barn and he gets one of the leading riders in the irons. This barn sports an excellent record with first timers and this one has been working quite well. Figures prominently. 7-PERFORMANCE PLUS finished in the money the last five times he raced in maiden claimers and this mare is facing her easiest field in a long time.

Have to give the edge to 10-CODE NAME. He’ll be making his first start for this barn but he’s been training very well since getting here. He has faced some pretty good rivals and he has enough turf experience to know he handles the surface. 9-WHERE YA AT VINCE was a game winner in his only race. He beat a tough maiden field in that Keeneland event. However, that race was contested on dirt, it was for a different barn, and he might now own the best turf pedigree, though at this distance it doesn’t always matter. 3-TWIRLING ROSES hasn’t regained the terrific form he displayed a few years ago but occasionally he displays flashes of that old talent. He’s had 11 turf sprints at similar distances and finished in the money in six of them. If he fires, he could be a late threat.

5-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT could get the perfect trip. She finished second, in routes, in her last two races. Her last was against the boys. She’s turning back in distance for this but she is still likely to be among the early leaders and she should have plenty left at this distance for the finish. 1-LOST SUNSET is hard to gauge. She led almost all the way in her lone start, under pressure, but got passed very late. She was still well clear of the rest of the field. However, she’ll be joined by other speed type today and not even sure she’ll be the quickest. 6-TRIBEST drops in her fifth start of the meet. Unlike so many in here she’ll do her best running late and the pace does figure to set up for her.

9-WHATS TO DO could be flying late. Oaklawn invader hasn’t raced on turf for a year but most of her early races were on the lawn and she was in against very tough maiden company in Kentucky for most of those starts. She still managed to finish third in three of those seven starts. This could be the easiest field she has ever faced. Might be tough. 7-MS KS DYNASTY missed by only a nose in last, her first race on turf, her first race with Lasix, and her first race after getting claimed by this barn. This big-time closer has a chance to go from last to first and the extra sixteenth mile can work in her favor. 5-TWAS LOLA drops into claimers to give turf a try. Races for the top barn with one of the top riders in her irons. Would expect her to be on or right off the lead throughout.

Wow! Excellent race. I could probably toss only one of the eight contestants. But going to take a chance with the “other” DiVito-trained runner, 4-ELI’S PROMISE. There is plenty of speed in this race, including his stablemate, but don’t know if any in here can keep up early. The six and a half furlong distance could be the main concern. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has been a terror on this track with wins in seven of his 12 local starts. He’s two for two at the distance and his regular rider chose him over Eli’s Promise. That might have been the right decision. His versatility allows him to go for the lead or come from out of it. Tough either way. 6-WENT WEST makes his first start after getting claimed. He finished only a head behind Shackleford Strong in his first local start of the year. He does have decent speed but think he’ll be stalking the pace instead of going for the lead. 

9-EVEN THE WIN might have found his spot. He’s making his first start of the year but, typical for this barn, he’s been training very well. He lost his final start of 2023 by only a head and he also raced competitively in most of his other six turf starts. 5-INTERLUDE tossed in a bit of a clunker in his last start of 2023 but he finished second in his first two starts, all on turf. Like top pick, he’s been training well for his return to racing. Gets the top jock in his irons. 4-SPINNING HEART has some speed. He didn’t seem to fire in his last start in New Orleans but he might be going right to the lead today. 

Wide open race for a bottom level claimer. On any given day, any of these ladies can win this race. Who will it be today? 8-GO STORMIN GIRL is one of the most consistent runners in this race. She has seven local wins and has done well at the distance. With her late-running style, the abundance of early speed helps her chances. 6-PLAY TWENTY loves the front end. However, she likes to be alone of the lead and it seems likely that she’ll have plenty of early company today. Will she hang on? 4-GHAALEB’S MAGIC has been sharp the last couple years and boasts some of the highest speed figures but she’s making her first start since July and her drills don’t instill a lot of confidence. 1-OPALINE seems slower than many in here but she showed an unusual amount of tenacity while winning her last two. She refused to let any pass her. 

THE BELMONT STAKES

Interesting race and interesting morning line. I believe the linemaker has the right favorite pegged but he made a horse with only two lifetime starts the second choice over the winner of the Kentucky Derby and the winner of the Preakness. Maybe he’s right but we’ll see.

I think 9-SIERRA LEONE is the best horse. That being said, we all know he has an issue lugging in. That trait probably cost him the Kentucky Derby win and it at least bothered Forever Young enough that a look by the stewards should have been warranted. His connections are replacing his bit with a cage bit which often helps runners that have a tough time maintaining a straight line. But why wasn’t this done sooner? It was an ongoing issue. It might help, it might not.

3-MYSTIC DAN won the Kentucky Derby and ran well enough to finish second in the Preakness, unable to catch the lone front runner. It would be foolish to think that he wasn’t capable of winning this race.

You have to figure that 1-SEIZE THE DAY will be sent again. It worked so well in the Preakness, even though it hadn’t been his typical M O. But the secret is out and I doubt someone won’t test him early.

That leaves 10-MINDFRAME. He’ll be the “now” horse after two dominating wins. But you have to remember that he hasn’t faced much, certainly not as much as the rest of the highly seasoned runners in this race. Many maintain that this was the weakest 3yo crop in a long time. Is he that good? Maybe. But I think he’ll be overbet.