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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat June 8th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race sets up as well for #4 JIM AND JIM as any in this field and perhaps the most favorable set up this horse has had in some time. As he comes into this race he come sin from the pair of sprints though with progressive figures out of the Oaklawn meet and with the route foundation as well. Class and numbers side with #2 CHAOS REIGNS the horse to beat on those fronts and likely going to be a heavy favorite as a result. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:08 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 DOC’S SEVEN had buried turf form in limited starts and TURF visuals giving her an upgrade returning to the grass last month. She turned in a competitive (B-) effort on the day and right back under similar conditions with O. Mojica taking over.

#4 LIPLINER could come out race ready and trainer V. Childers already has had success with a layoff returnee and in these turf sprints LIPLINER turned in a BTL effort in the OC $40k event last June with a less than ideal (TACTIC-) trip and compromised all around with the trip in July unable to get to the turf before the end of the meet.

#1 MOVE IT BABY comes into this race with established form and looking for the third straight win. She would be no surprise to do just that back under similar conditions and her tactical speed to work out a trip at the shorter 5f distance though requires a top effort and should find company in that trip with others in this field including, #7 GET THE CANDY and #8 RAMBERT. The shorter 5f distance is the biggest hurdle for #2 APRIL’S GEM though otherwise could benefit from a contentious pace in front of her and is in form and looking for return to the turf is where she shows her best.  

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:36 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A tough race as the winner could come from any of the eight and will come down to which runner gets their trip and finds their best effort this afternoon. The older established, #4 MINING CAMP takes the right move back to the MCL level and has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and his early speed could be tough to catch though there are “20 reasons” to have some reservations.

#3 SKYLANE has been consistent lacks “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines though does take a slight rise to compete here in terms of par from the earlier events and could be favored in this spot as they were last out. #1 RAYFIELD is a new face for the top connections and could be given a look on that alone. He will be given a long look on race day in the paddock for a final decision.

Perez has the pair with #2 POND on the lighter side number wise though to their credit has shown progression and improvement with each start this year and could take another step forward; #5 MONEY AGENT has been competitive though his more competitive races were at the lower MCL level here earlier this season.

#7 PERFORMANCE PLUS has factors that give him top preference in the race selections with the lack of “Red” competitive races and key rider change. Trip/pace could be in his favor looking at the Plot with the “Sun” Contention and honest 35 SpeedRate with the Quad IV Square position that gives #8 PRINCE IS MY BOY consideration as the two are similar. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:04 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 CODE NAME looks a clever pick up at the April sale for P. Miller on this circuit where he can compete. Overall he did not show much improvement for the prior connections though should hold those figures for the new connections and was consistent especially in the sprints and on the synthetic/turf that fit right on par here.

#9 WHERE YA AT VINCE perhaps is the biggest threat to the established older runners as a lightly raced trip for top connections recently picked up behind the scenes. He will show up here on the turf off the debut win for this second start and earning the highest figure in the field. That KEE maiden race has not had many run back though the show finisher, World Record was dominant breaking his maiden on the CD main recently. One could project them to show early speed making things tougher/contentious early with the other front runners in this field including the quick #6 CONGRATS ON FIFTY.

#3 TWIRLING ROSES is established with current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and buried form on the turf. His races at this higher claiming level from the FG sit on par from a class and figure stand point and that can go back to his allowance race here last May (5/31/23) with a complete EX_EXCUSE --  that is worth going back to watching the replay on that one and tough to not give a look to after doing so. #1 ON K P also brings established form though one tougher to trust on the win as he has come up short on that front without excuse.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:32 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

With the C. Winebaugh barn finding a forward trend that timing could be right for #7 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN in this spot and to clear the maiden condition. She should be fit with the third start of the season and while she did NO_FINISH last out at the same time has shown progressive OptixGRADES. #5 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT finds some positive changes for this race as she cuts back in distance and returns to face fillies & mares from the 6/12 event.

The change in class comes into play for both #2 IMAGE OF CURLIN and #6 TRIBEST moving them up on that alone as shown on the Plot. With that said, their current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines creates some further reservations outside of what is shown on paper. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LEIPZIG can be given an upgrade as she makes her second start off the layoff, back under similar conditions and flow upgraded from the 5/12 race with the top two from off the pace. Her overall form both on the turf/synth fit on par to compete and given another look here where she appears placed well for the connections. That race shape is noted with #7 MS KS DYNASTY taking a tough beat on the wrong side of the photo finish though despite the longer finishing odds opened with early money and support in the multis to suggest she was live on the day.

Haran has been looking for the grass for #9 WHAT’S TO DO and has prior solid grass form and figures and racing at Oaklawn this year did not have that surface opportunity. She  comes into this race with solid form (lack of “Red”) despite the “on paper” running lines and finishing positions and should move up naturally both with the surface, class and circuit change here.

The surface switch (TURF) could be the key to move #1 SEQUAYA up and given another look after the WIDE trip over the yielding with the far outside post last month. She is also the type that has raced herself into shape and while a win could be a reach she fits with many on figures. should be dismissed on the board and one that could be along for a share. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This might be the most contentious group of non-stakes sprinters put together in the country with every runner a hard knocking racehorse. #6 WENT WEST had to settle for place though still recorded a B OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 4/21 behind rival #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG and will look to turn the tables here. Claimed out of that event WENT WEST has waited their time and fit in this group (Plot) given the complexion of this field and 6.5f distance.

SHACKLEFORD STRONG has been too consistent to dismiss. Going back to the analysis on 5/11 the inside post was a concern in terms of trip that day, however, could turn out in his favor with a different dynamic here. The “speeds” to their outside in #2 ABSOLUTE CHAOS and #4 ELI’S PROMISE should engage early allow for SHACKLEFORD STRONG to track off that duo saving ground for that “stalk and pounce” trip.

Both WENT WEST and SHACKLEFORD STRONG should get the jump on Quad IV Squares #3 GO EMI and #5 CORTESE horses looking to run on for a share while ABSOLUTE CHAOS and ELI’S PROMISE will be looking to hold for a share. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Since 11/25 myself (and probably the connections) have been waiting for #5 INTERLUDE to make a return. That running line and finishing position at the FG appears unassuming though that run was beyond BTL and compromised with a better outcome to the say the least. They can IMPROVE and does appear well-intended with the layoff and on this circuit, time, and place. Roussel will also send out #8 SHARP STRIKE one that has the benefit of a local start, the addition of blinkers and back to the TURF – the intent for the pair both entered and scratched from the 5/18 event when the races were moved to the main track.

Block will look to send out a pair with the returning #9 EVEN THE WIND one that has yet to pick up the win though has not run a “bad” race to date and first time starter, #12 I O FEDRO one that was unable to compete on 5/25, a vet scratch from a $20k MCL (8.5f turf)  event. The connections also with #2 NOT FALLING BACK wheeling right back for a second start and upside as they move to the turf, the intended surface and one from the visuals that looks to have and likely to show more early speed. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:24 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A bit of a stab though #7 SHEZ RECKLESS could be upgraded in this spot. Going back to the races from last year she was consistently recording some of the higher figures in this field. She required the time off after the tough 2023 campaign returning in a higher level open claiming event on 3/31 where she drew the rail and NO_HANDLE in terms of trip which carried as they wheeled back in just one week for the 4/7 race. She moves outside today and back with C. Ulloa, a rider that has been aboard in the past to suggest some intent.

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, SHEZ RECKLESS could find a favorable trip with the “Fire” Contention and higher 38 SpeedRate with the 3-4 Quad I runners close to and above the ParLine as she sits in Quad II as a smaller Square. That could be the key to work out a “first run” trip on the prime closers in #4 GHAALEB’S MAGIC and #8 GO STORMIN GIRL with #3 TAP N TWINE also in that flight.