Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of ML favorite, #4 RIVZONAROLL he did not have any real excuse two weeks ago PRESSED on a Slow early and Very Slow late pace unable to get the job done that day and must seek an alternative. The challenge is others in this field hold winning races, though their current form leaves something to be desired.

That carries to both runners on the inside #1 WILDWOOD MINISTRY and #2 BERNIE LOMAX making barn changes claimed out of their most recent starts and could move up returning to top form on intent alone.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN started off the season in a higher OC $50k event and with limited works appeared to be “racing into shape” for the connections. He has yet to take that step forward in the return races to give a big endorsement at the same time the distance change and returning to H. Reyes, a rider that had success aboard last year could be the timing.

#3 MALIGATOR comes into this race as a slightly “new” face with the subtle drop and looking at the Past 3 Runlines holds figures on par and lacking “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines as a positive. He does have the pattern of SLOG and makes the run from off the pace Quad II/IV that still requires some price compensation. 

In a race that could come down to form and trip, #4 FANCY HILL checks those boxes in a less obvious way making her second start this season. Her maiden win last November was dominant (B+) and while the effort appeared to have come out of nowhere, upon further review she was contesting often Fast/Very Fast early paces and had that buried upgrade when it came to the right time and place she showed the goods.

#6 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level on 4/7 and off that race wheeled back with the ride in class and 42-days between starts for the 5/19 event and back today in a more reasonable spot. The change in class also comes into play for #5 JOCELYN as she was entered at this level last weekend at the route distance with Centeno aboard and back here sprinting could benefit from what might be a contested early pace with a “stalk and pounce” trip. 

#3 GUN RUSH returns to Hawthorne off a game effort in a tough starter allowance last month at CD over a deep off track and WIDE trip at the longer 9f distance. Taking nothing away from the effort he did get WARM on the day, a change for this horse and lost his footing coming out of the gate along with the ground loss that followed. Looking at the Plot, he is the horse to catch and beat.

Sticking with the Plot, #4 DOUBLE THUNDER could have the best chance with the Large Square in Quad II, though giving the preference to rival #6 STRONGER TOGETHER of the two overlapping in that role. STRONGER TOGETHER has some back class going back to his first two starts in stakes company at WO that put him back a longer time to break his maiden. He has surface versatility to handle the main track and upgraded in his current form cycle, third start back and flow/profile upgrade from 5/25 on the turf. 

#3 CHURCH PEW presents TURF visuals and makes a belated return to the turf with the lone grass race, a $150k MSW event last summer at KYD, a different scenario than what she will find today. The TURF visuals also carry to #5 MOLLY’S TEMPLE one that was given a mention with the surface switch last month, though also reservations in that spot stepping up against open company and giving up recency. She should benefit from the start physically and mentally noting the fractious nature at the GATE and poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) that followed.

#7 MISS MADELINE also could be in the right spot to show her best. She debuted over the yielding turf and with the WIDE trip did not appear to handle the surface on the day. They wheeled right back on the drop and had to run with the changes both in surface and distance on 5/26 when looking for both the grass and two turns, something that did not come together though gaining conditioning and fitness in the process. 

#3 HAY MOON finds some positive changes in this spot and if ever to move up in the maiden ranks to clear, this is the time and place. He was given the chance to race into shape as well as at the higher MCL conditions. With those races under his belt, he has shown run in spots and “flow upgrade” from the two route events that should translate with the class change and distance with the extended one-turn here.

#4 MALIBU BRAD makes a belated return and class drop where their early speed (Q1) could be effective in today’s field. That will be the key to find the jump on the group all returning from the 5/25 common race led by #5 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX earning a B OptixGRADE in the place finish while the two M. Perez runners #6 KEYSER and #7 PIRATE MARMALADE were not far behind, B- OptixGRADE. 

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, there is a scenario for #4 ARDENWOOD to make the lead and find some separation up front to take this field gate-to-wire. In terms of form cycle, this would be the time for him to put forth that type of effort required as he has been given 42-days between starts, a change from the races this year for a horse that has preferred more time between races to record a top effort.

Chasing ARDENWOOD looking for first run falls on #3 LUCKY BOSS looking to regain his top form with the shift to the main track and circuit switch from some higher level events at OP that put him right back in the mix. He should present value over the logical #5 PROTONIC POWER one that consistently turns in an honest effort though has without excuse come up short on the win end, or of recording that winning (B) effort as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. #7 MEGAN’S HONOR also could find a similar trip and on figures is highlighted with all three numbers in Past 3 Runlines in today’s par. 

#1 VIOLENT GIGI is tougher to trust on the win end looking for that first win since November 2022 making more than eligible for this condition. With that said, he has run against some higher level horses and while form has been “sus” as the kids say, he has started to turn things around coming off a B- WIDE CLOSE show finish here last month and in live hands.

#7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also falls into that tougher to trust on the win end category though should present price compensation today and overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing position. His form has remained consistent this season with a strong effort and figure under similar conditions on 4/27 and should be fit coming back from the WIDE trip and solid GALLOP+ two weeks ago.

The Plot position and shape for CHRISTMAS PRESENT is in line with #2 MON AMI FUZZIE - a logical type into this race with class relief and forward every other pattern keying off the B- effort in for the $5k tag on 5/11, their most competitive race this cycle and preferred over #6 HUNKA BURNING LOVE one that should get a lot of attention coming off the win. 

#7 CADENCIA is legit as the favorite and will be no secret in here especially on this circuit for the connections and coming off a TROUBLE trip in her most recent start and the type of effort and outcome she can IMPROVE on. That KEE allowance produced two next out winners and the show finisher, Cloudwalker finishing show in the Mamzelle stakes. another called

Arguably, #8 DIAMONDS JOY should be shorter than #6 FACCIA BELLA of the C. Block pair given the sprint distance and recency edge. JOY does not have the same foundation though does hold upside just as she did leading into the 5/12 start, a flow upgrade from the TAM MSW races. In addition, her debut sprinting on the turf was her highest recorded figure to date and one could project she could still move forward off that number. 

This race is open for a price play given the complexion of this field. The two J. Wainwright runners have a look. #6 WESLAN is the more “established” and with form over this course and distance with competitive races at this N1 level last season right there with #7 FAMILY TRADITION. Stablemate, #5 MERLOTTI brings the most upside as he makes just his second start this season. He was able to step up off the layoff at KEE back in April at the higher claiming level and $48k purse with a field that is closer to a lateral move here. MERLOTTI has form over this course and distance from last year including a BTL/B effort in his second start and progressive figures leading to the MSW win in August.

The distance change comes into play and unknown for #2 CALL ME ICE MAN one that otherwise has a look for redemption at a price from a subtle trip (TACTIC-, SHUFFLE, MOVE) under similar conditions when starting off his current form cycle here on 5/11. 

#7 MOONRISE DRIVE turned in a BTL/B effort first off the claim for C. Winebaugh on 3/16 at GP and is upgraded from the TACTIC- TRAFFIC trip on 5/21 at HS Indy where they were unable to show their best in that spot. The timing should prove positive on this circuit and in the second start off the layoff.

#4 ICE AXE will make some changes for this race though given a look at double digit odds. While he will be stepping up to take on winner, he has foundation and figures on par for today’s race. He will make the change to the TURF though off his physicality should take the surface and even a move forward would not be any surprise.

#5 COOL AND COLLECTED also returns in a second start off the layoff and remains for the connections noting they did race for the tag last out and similar today at the higher $26k. The turf was the place last month and going back to the races last year did appear more effective on the grass and with some trips along the way including the EX – EXCUSE to close out 2023. His debut last year was won by rival #6 ALL CHOKED UP one that will be tested for stamina more than anything else here.