Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of ML favorite, #4 RIVZONAROLL he did not have any real excuse two weeks ago PRESSED on a Slow early and Very Slow late pace unable to get the job done that day and must seek an alternative. The challenge is others in this field hold winning races, though their current form leaves something to be desired.

That carries to both runners on the inside #1 WILDWOOD MINISTRY and #2 BERNIE LOMAX making barn changes claimed out of their most recent starts and could move up returning to top form on intent alone.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN started off the season in a higher OC $50k event and with limited works appeared to be “racing into shape” for the connections. He has yet to take that step forward in the return races to give a big endorsement at the same time the distance change and returning to H. Reyes, a rider that had success aboard last year could be the timing.

#3 MALIGATOR comes into this race as a slightly “new” face with the subtle drop and looking at the Past 3 Runlines holds figures on par and lacking “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines as a positive. He does have the pattern of SLOG and makes the run from off the pace Quad II/IV that still requires some price compensation. 

In a race that could come down to form and trip, #4 FANCY HILL checks those boxes in a less obvious way making her second start this season. Her maiden win last November was dominant (B+) and while the effort appeared to have come out of nowhere, upon further review she was contesting often Fast/Very Fast early paces and had that buried upgrade when it came to the right time and place she showed the goods.

#6 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level on 4/7 and off that race wheeled back with the ride in class and 42-days between starts for the 5/19 event and back today in a more reasonable spot. The change in class also comes into play for #5 JOCELYN as she was entered at this level last weekend at the route distance with Centeno aboard and back here sprinting could benefit from what might be a contested early pace with a “stalk and pounce” trip. 

#3 GUN RUSH returns to Hawthorne off a game effort in a tough starter allowance last month at CD over a deep off track and WIDE trip at the longer 9f distance. Taking nothing away from the effort he did get WARM on the day, a change for this horse and lost his footing coming out of the gate along with the ground loss that followed. Looking at the Plot, he is the horse to catch and beat.

Sticking with the Plot, #4 DOUBLE THUNDER could have the best chance with the Large Square in Quad II, though giving the preference to rival #6 STRONGER TOGETHER of the two overlapping in that role. STRONGER TOGETHER has some back class going back to his first two starts in stakes company at WO that put him back a longer time to break his maiden. He has surface versatility to handle the main track and upgraded in his current form cycle, third start back and flow/profile upgrade from 5/25 on the turf. 

#3 CHURCH PEW presents TURF visuals and makes a belated return to the turf with the lone grass race, a $150k MSW event last summer at KYD, a different scenario than what she will find today. The TURF visuals also carry to #5 MOLLY’S TEMPLE one that was given a mention with the surface switch last month, though also reservations in that spot stepping up against open company and giving up recency. She should benefit from the start physically and mentally noting the fractious nature at the GATE and poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) that followed.

#7 MISS MADELINE also could be in the right spot to show her best. She debuted over the yielding turf and with the WIDE trip did not appear to handle the surface on the day. They wheeled right back on the drop and had to run with the changes both in surface and distance on 5/26 when looking for both the grass and two turns, something that did not come together though gaining conditioning and fitness in the process. 

#3 HAY MOON finds some positive changes in this spot and if ever to move up in the maiden ranks to clear, this is the time and place. He was given the chance to race into shape as well as at the higher MCL conditions. With those races under his belt, he has shown run in spots and “flow upgrade” from the two route events that should translate with the class change and distance with the extended one-turn here.

#4 MALIBU BRAD makes a belated return and class drop where their early speed (Q1) could be effective in today’s field. That will be the key to find the jump on the group all returning from the 5/25 common race led by #5 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX earning a B OptixGRADE in the place finish while the two M. Perez runners #6 KEYSER and #7 PIRATE MARMALADE were not far behind, B- OptixGRADE. 

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, there is a scenario for #4 ARDENWOOD to make the lead and find some separation up front to take this field gate-to-wire. In terms of form cycle, this would be the time for him to put forth that type of effort required as he has been given 42-days between starts, a change from the races this year for a horse that has preferred more time between races to record a top effort.

Chasing ARDENWOOD looking for first run falls on #3 LUCKY BOSS looking to regain his top form with the shift to the main track and circuit switch from some higher level events at OP that put him right back in the mix. He should present value over the logical #5 PROTONIC POWER one that consistently turns in an honest effort though has without excuse come up short on the win end, or of recording that winning (B) effort as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. #7 MEGAN’S HONOR also could find a similar trip and on figures is highlighted with all three numbers in Past 3 Runlines in today’s par. 

#1 VIOLENT GIGI is tougher to trust on the win end looking for that first win since November 2022 making more than eligible for this condition. With that said, he has run against some higher level horses and while form has been “sus” as the kids say, he has started to turn things around coming off a B- WIDE CLOSE show finish here last month and in live hands.

#7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also falls into that tougher to trust on the win end category though should present price compensation today and overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing position. His form has remained consistent this season with a strong effort and figure under similar conditions on 4/27 and should be fit coming back from the WIDE trip and solid GALLOP+ two weeks ago.

The Plot position and shape for CHRISTMAS PRESENT is in line with #2 MON AMI FUZZIE - a logical type into this race with class relief and forward every other pattern keying off the B- effort in for the $5k tag on 5/11, their most competitive race this cycle and preferred over #6 HUNKA BURNING LOVE one that should get a lot of attention coming off the win. 

#7 CADENCIA is legit as the favorite and will be no secret in here especially on this circuit for the connections and coming off a TROUBLE trip in her most recent start and the type of effort and outcome she can IMPROVE on. That KEE allowance produced two next out winners and the show finisher, Cloudwalker finishing show in the Mamzelle stakes. another called

Arguably, #8 DIAMONDS JOY should be shorter than #6 FACCIA BELLA of the C. Block pair given the sprint distance and recency edge. JOY does not have the same foundation though does hold upside just as she did leading into the 5/12 start, a flow upgrade from the TAM MSW races. In addition, her debut sprinting on the turf was her highest recorded figure to date and one could project she could still move forward off that number. 

This race is open for a price play given the complexion of this field. The two J. Wainwright runners have a look. #6 WESLAN is the more “established” and with form over this course and distance with competitive races at this N1 level last season right there with #7 FAMILY TRADITION. Stablemate, #5 MERLOTTI brings the most upside as he makes just his second start this season. He was able to step up off the layoff at KEE back in April at the higher claiming level and $48k purse with a field that is closer to a lateral move here. MERLOTTI has form over this course and distance from last year including a BTL/B effort in his second start and progressive figures leading to the MSW win in August.

The distance change comes into play and unknown for #2 CALL ME ICE MAN one that otherwise has a look for redemption at a price from a subtle trip (TACTIC-, SHUFFLE, MOVE) under similar conditions when starting off his current form cycle here on 5/11. 

#7 MOONRISE DRIVE turned in a BTL/B effort first off the claim for C. Winebaugh on 3/16 at GP and is upgraded from the TACTIC- TRAFFIC trip on 5/21 at HS Indy where they were unable to show their best in that spot. The timing should prove positive on this circuit and in the second start off the layoff.

#4 ICE AXE will make some changes for this race though given a look at double digit odds. While he will be stepping up to take on winner, he has foundation and figures on par for today’s race. He will make the change to the TURF though off his physicality should take the surface and even a move forward would not be any surprise.

#5 COOL AND COLLECTED also returns in a second start off the layoff and remains for the connections noting they did race for the tag last out and similar today at the higher $26k. The turf was the place last month and going back to the races last year did appear more effective on the grass and with some trips along the way including the EX – EXCUSE to close out 2023. His debut last year was won by rival #6 ALL CHOKED UP one that will be tested for stamina more than anything else here. 

This could be the start of a good day for the Rivelli barn as 4-RIVZONAROLL looks to be the fastest in the opener. He was caught late in his last by a horse in fine form in Breaking News but with that one running in Indiana, things look to open up for him to get the job done in here. 3-MALIGATOR will hope for a contested pace as he figures to settle early and run on late. He closed in races won by Strange Arrange in his last couple as that has been one of the most improved horses on the meet. I expect he closes into the mix in here but it may be too late. 1-WILDWOOD MINISTRY comes in off the claim in his last as he figures to rate in the second flight early and run on in the lane. He picks up Centeno for this spot, who has had himself a fine meet.

A competitive bunch that appears to have a good amount of early pace. With that in mind, things could set up nicely for 6-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS as she moves back to the dirt and finds things much easier than her last out. He race two back would be good enough to win in here and jock Reyes has ridden very well in recent weeks. 7-HOLY IMAGE could be the price play in the race as she figures to run on in the lane. Her last two were decent efforts and the pace could work in her favor. 5-JOCELYN shortens up off her last couple but her race two back was strong as she appears to have rounded into better form. Just not sure this is the best distance for her but I expect she takes her share of action.

First leg of the Helicopter series as we will see if 3-GUN RUSH is dominant throughout. He has won six of seven Hawthorne starts but was a bit disappointing in the slop at Churchill in his last. Expect him to show speed in here and look to wire this bunch. 5-GLOBAL EMPIRE could contend if one of the inside two go with Gun Rush early as he picks up Cohen in the saddle today. He likes this track, likes the distance, and has run some solid races against good company. He may be worth a look, even if underneath, at a decent price. 4-DOUBLE THUNDER has been good in a pair of Hawthorne races this meet as  he has tactical speed and the distance suits. I will be curious to see if he takes it to Gun Rush early.

First of three turf on the Sunday card with a field that has a lot of unknowns in here. With the intent of wanting turf, 3-CHURCH PEW is work another look as she comes off an improved effort last out while staying in on the mud.  Her only turf try was against much tougher company and over the unconventional Kentucky Downs course. Give her another look today. 2-SAFECRACKER SUE may show some speed in here as she stretches back out and gets to the grass. She comes in off a solid workout as Cohen returns in the saddle. 4-REDHEADEDSTRANGER is overdue for the maiden score but has run the most consistent races coming into this spot. She just missed in her last couple and drops back in for the tag today.

A really good allowance field in here as I'll be curious to see what the pace is. The is the potential that 4-ARDANWOOD could sneak away to an easy lead and never look back but if Novgorod the Great goes from the inside to challenge then it may set things up for 5-PROTONIC POWER to rally. Protonic Power has been good on turf or dirt but is winless from five starts on the year. A couple of those races did come in stakes company though as today could get him back into the winner's circle. 7-MEGAN'S HONOR has run a lot of good races over this track, finding the board in seven of eight starts as he comes off a good third place effort against stakes runners in his last. He was likely compromised by the short stretch miles that he had to run at Oaklawn and the full run of the stretch should benefit him today. 4-ARDANWOOD does have the speed as I expect he is sent away early today. His slow start changed the entire race last out but a clean break here will put him in the mix immediately.

This could be a bunched up field which should benefit the chances of 1-VIOLENT GIGI today. He came over the Hawthorne after facing tougher throughout the winter at Oaklawn and ran an improved race in his last. Burgos rode a winner for Haran here a couple of weeks ago and is back in the saddle again. 2-MON AMI FUZZIE has tactical speed and could be part of a field that is bunched up early. He has been good at the distance but also is still looking for his first win over the track. Let's see how much action he takes in this race. 6-HUNKA BURNING LOVE is a cool 10yo horses that is still battling on as he looks for career win number 20 and approaches $750k in lifetime earnings. He's another that should be able to rate close early and may get a very similar trip to what we saw last time out.

A good field of allowance runners in this turf sprint as 7-CADENCIA comes in from Kentucky for this spot. She has tactical speed would should put her in a good position early. She is also at her best on grass as she finds a good landing spot here. 9-DI'S SURPRISE should be forwardly placed as she comes off a sharp maiden score last out. The outside draw should be a benefit for her in this spot as she will get a look at how many get sent away from the inside. If she takes to the turf, 1-TEXAS HOTTIE may be able to contend at a price as she steps up off a longshot maiden victory in her last. She will need to save ground and get some racing luck, but her races are progressing the right way and she will be a massive price.

A solid allowance bunch here as the easier company should help 8-GLUCKSTADT as he makes his second start off the claim. He was a good second in the short stretch mile at Oaklawn two back before heading to Kentucky for his last. The race three back is the one that should be key as they was a similar setup to this race with a full run of the stretch. 4-HARD TO FATHOM has tactical speed as he should rate close early and contend the entire way. He raced into some traffic trouble in his last but did still run on late and has every right to improve with clear sailing in here. 7-FAMILY TRADITION comes in from Nebraska off a pair of victories while sprinting as he stretches back out. He did run well around two turns here last July and looks to be in fine form as he has gotten a couple of works over the track leading into this start.

A very competitive bunch closes the day as it should be a wide open wagering race. 7-MOONRISE DRIVE gets back to the grass as he comes in from a turf start in Indiana in his last. He did win over the Golden Gate turf last summer and it would be fitting for him to win in here on the final day of racing at Golden Gate. 9-TEMPLE FOOL wheels back off the first training victory for Irvin Moreno in his career last out. He ran a nice race as he rated behind horses before splitting runners in the lane. It could be a similar trip here as he steps up to face winners. 6-ALL CHOKED UP is one with a little speed as he finds a bit easier company today. He broke his maiden over this course here last summer and could be the one looking to try to steal the race in here.

It is always possible that he’ll lose the race but 4-RIVSONAROLL appears to not only be the best speed in the race but really the only speed in the race. However, three of his four wins came at five and a half and he won only one of his six races at six furlongs. 1-WILDWOOD MINISTRY was claimed from a dull effort downstate. He did own speed in the past but hasn’t shown any of it lately. Might find more early foot for his new barn. 2-BERNIE LOMAX, another recent claim, adds blinkers for the first time in his career. Maybe they a=will allow him to show more early speed though think he’s at his best when he runs at them late.

6-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS drops and heads back to the main track after a terrible outing on the turf. She finished second in a “key” race at this level two starts back. Guessing she’ll be tough in this one. 2-HIP HOP EMMY needed last. She faded quickly after displaying brief speed. But she was quick and carried her speed much farther last year. Seems likely to be gunning for the early lead today. 7-HOLY IMAGE could be competitive if she can be coaxed to get involved early.

Seems strange that 3-GUN RUSH is still eligible for this race. He’s been a monster here, winning six of seven local starts, usually at this distance. Had little impact when shipped to Churchill for last but he’s going to be awfully tough to beat with his return home. 4-DOUBLE THUNDER has had two local starts and was barely beaten in both. His speed figures suggest that he could be competitive with top choice but with that runner likely to get an easy, unchallenged lead this late-running gelding will have his work cut out for him. 6-STRONGER TOGETHER is another capable of grabbing a late share. 

Weird race. Especially weird since this race is on turf and, with one exception, the runners in here that have even raced on turf have been terrible on the surface. But someone has to win. 3-CHURCH PEW is far from a strong choice, she finished 12^th ion her lone turf race but this field is considerably weaker than that. She finished second in last, a race that was originally scheduled for turf. Her barn easily has the best turf numbers. Might be her day. 6-MULSANNE has had the most turf success. She raced on the weeds 11 times and finished third in four of them. But that was long ago in a galaxy far, far away. Recent form says no. 5-MOLLY’S TEMPLE drops into maiden claimers for the first time. Her barn hasn’t been especially effective with turf runners but she does have some breeding and she might turn out to be the best of the speed, helped along by a good speed rider as pilot.

4-MALIBU BRAD seems most logical. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career to make his first local start of the year. Has been training consistently since his last start in January. Races with Lasix for the second time. Races for talented connections and get the top rider in the irons. 5-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX was narrowly beaten at this level in last and he finished in the money in three of his last four starts while facing similar. Last was undoubtedly his best race yet. Could be ready to graduate. 7-PIRATE MARMALADE can surprise. Early on he was meeting better rivals. Then when dropped into maiden claimers for the first time, his saddle slipped. He was flying late in last, making up about five lengths in the stretch alone, but ran out of real estate. Today he’ll get an extra sixteenth mile to work with. That could do the trick.

Leading trainer Latty Rivelli doesn’t claim many but he does pretty well with those he does take. He claimed 5-PROTONIC POWER from last. This gelding finished second in his three previous local dirt starts but could make a late run to get over the hump today. 1-NOVGORAD THE GREAT is worth another look. Like the gameness he showed in last, his first start since August and one of his few on dirt. Has speed, the right rider to utilize it, and the rail. Might not get caught. 7-MEGAN’S HONOR has the versatility to score against any kind of pace. He’s fresh off a third-place finish in a strong state-bred stakes race. One interesting stat: over the last two years, when this trainer and rider team up, they have a 41% win average but this year they have won three of four at Hawthorne.

6-HUNKA BURNING LOVE seems likely to make it two in a row. He won his local debut with authority. His barn continually sends out live runners. Gets the top jock. The extra sixteenth mile of this race should be to his benefit. 2-MON AMIE FUZZIE had to settle for fourth in a much tougher field last out but he did finish second in his previous start and third the time before he raced at Hawthorne. He displayed better than his usual speed in last but he’s been more of a closer in his career. Think he’ll be rolling late. 1-VIOLENT GIGI made up a lot of ground in his first local start of the year but he was simply too far back early to have much of an impact late. Would expect him to race closer to the early pace today and he could have a better outcome.

7-CANDENCIA ships in hoping for a confidence booster. She has been meeting some very tough company since getting claimed by this barn and, until last, holding her own. This is quite possibly the easiest field she ever met on the lawn and though it’s probably not her best distance, her class makes her the one to beat. 9-DI’S SURPRISE dominated maidens in last. That was only her second start and her first on turf. But she’s bred for anything and she does race for the top barn. She might be taking on better but wouldn’t ignore. 6-FACCIA BELLA has often shown flashes of ability but she could be ready to take it to a whole new level. She has moved to the barn of Chris Block and runners debuting for them win 21% of the time. The barn has been hitting at a 31% clip. Figures prominently. 2-WANDA STRONG might need the race. She was in great form when she was last racing but she hasn’t started since August. There’s also a chance that she needs more real estate.

3-COACH JIMI D doesn’t sport lofty speed figures and he’s making his first start against winners but he sure did impress in last, his local debut. Instead of being sent as he was so much of his career, he was given the opportunity to relax and it paid off handsomely. He exploded in the stretch and drew off to win by seven. This field came up pretty tough but think he has what it takes to be competitive. 7-FAMILY TRADITION ships in after winning both races at Fonner. He ran well here last year, finishing second in his two local dirt starts.  He might display better speed with the stretch in distance but he was never sent after the lead when stretched out in the past. 2-CALL ME ICE MAN almost has to go for the lead since there’s no other real speed in this race. This will be the first time he tries to navigate two turns. If he can handle the distance he might never look back.

6-ALL CHOKED UP didn’t run much in last, his first start of the meet, but he’s dropping a few levels to tackle this group. He had two strong races here last year and was competitive a couple times in Kentucky following. But his races this year leave a lot to be desired. Maybe the drop will wake him up. 5-COOL AND COLLECTED beat only one in his first start of the year but that was also his first race on dirt and you could tell he disliked the surface. Should be back on the lawn today. Expect considerable improvement. 12-WE MISS ARLINGTON, stablemate of top choice, will make his debut, if he can draw into the race. Strong turf pedigree helps while meeting the easiest field of his career. He could be tough if he gets in.

Race 7:  2 - 1 - 6

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,2 / 7,9 / 1,3,4,8 / 5,6  ($16)

#2 Mon Ami Fuzzie (5-2) is not a superstar, but he’s run perfectly fine in his last two without winning and should sit another good stalking trip from the inside. This is the lowest level he’s been at since February.

Race 8:  9 - 7 - 6

Any race that is only 5f on turf means one thing to me: find a horse with early speed. That fits the bill for my top choice, #9 Di’s Surprise (5-1). Trainer Rivelli has taught this talented filly to rate a bit, and she won last time for fun by 4+. She comes back pretty quickly, but will be a big factor with a similar trip. She cost $160k at auction and is supposed to be a good one, so I’m expecting continued improvement and another win.

Race 9:  3 - 8 - 4

Trainer Jimmy DiVito is an excellent horseman. He doesn’t have a big stable at Hawthorne, but is batting 33% this meet. #3 Coach Jimi D (8-1) just broke his maiden, but did it so well that I’m coming back with him. He won by 7 lengths and was competitive at Oaklawn in the spring. I like him more stretching out to two turns, which is what he got last time and today. He’ll have to improve again, but I think he can at a price. 

Race 10:  5 - 6 - 8

Turf conditioned claimers end the card here, and Trainer Block has #5 Cool and Collected (9-2). His numbers last year fit in this race, and last time he didn’t fire at all, but had excuses. It was his first start of the year, and was on dirt, which is not his preferred surface. Jockey Felix takes the mount, and I believe he’ll stalk and pounce to the Winner’s Circle.