Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race sets up as well for #4 JIM AND JIM as any in this field and perhaps the most favorable set up this horse has had in some time. As he comes into this race he come sin from the pair of sprints though with progressive figures out of the Oaklawn meet and with the route foundation as well. Class and numbers side with #2 CHAOS REIGNS the horse to beat on those fronts and likely going to be a heavy favorite as a result. 

#6 DOC’S SEVEN had buried turf form in limited starts and TURF visuals giving her an upgrade returning to the grass last month. She turned in a competitive (B-) effort on the day and right back under similar conditions with O. Mojica taking over.

#4 LIPLINER could come out race ready and trainer V. Childers already has had success with a layoff returnee and in these turf sprints LIPLINER turned in a BTL effort in the OC $40k event last June with a less than ideal (TACTIC-) trip and compromised all around with the trip in July unable to get to the turf before the end of the meet.

#1 MOVE IT BABY comes into this race with established form and looking for the third straight win. She would be no surprise to do just that back under similar conditions and her tactical speed to work out a trip at the shorter 5f distance though requires a top effort and should find company in that trip with others in this field including, #7 GET THE CANDY and #8 RAMBERT. The shorter 5f distance is the biggest hurdle for #2 APRIL’S GEM though otherwise could benefit from a contentious pace in front of her and is in form and looking for return to the turf is where she shows her best.  

A tough race as the winner could come from any of the eight and will come down to which runner gets their trip and finds their best effort this afternoon. The older established, #4 MINING CAMP takes the right move back to the MCL level and has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and his early speed could be tough to catch though there are “20 reasons” to have some reservations.

#3 SKYLANE has been consistent lacks “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines though does take a slight rise to compete here in terms of par from the earlier events and could be favored in this spot as they were last out. #1 RAYFIELD is a new face for the top connections and could be given a look on that alone. He will be given a long look on race day in the paddock for a final decision.

Perez has the pair with #2 POND on the lighter side number wise though to their credit has shown progression and improvement with each start this year and could take another step forward; #5 MONEY AGENT has been competitive though his more competitive races were at the lower MCL level here earlier this season.

#7 PERFORMANCE PLUS has factors that give him top preference in the race selections with the lack of “Red” competitive races and key rider change. Trip/pace could be in his favor looking at the Plot with the “Sun” Contention and honest 35 SpeedRate with the Quad IV Square position that gives #8 PRINCE IS MY BOY consideration as the two are similar. 

#10 CODE NAME looks a clever pick up at the April sale for P. Miller on this circuit where he can compete. Overall he did not show much improvement for the prior connections though should hold those figures for the new connections and was consistent especially in the sprints and on the synthetic/turf that fit right on par here.

#9 WHERE YA AT VINCE perhaps is the biggest threat to the established older runners as a lightly raced trip for top connections recently picked up behind the scenes. He will show up here on the turf off the debut win for this second start and earning the highest figure in the field. That KEE maiden race has not had many run back though the show finisher, World Record was dominant breaking his maiden on the CD main recently. One could project them to show early speed making things tougher/contentious early with the other front runners in this field including the quick #6 CONGRATS ON FIFTY.

#3 TWIRLING ROSES is established with current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and buried form on the turf. His races at this higher claiming level from the FG sit on par from a class and figure stand point and that can go back to his allowance race here last May (5/31/23) with a complete EX_EXCUSE --  that is worth going back to watching the replay on that one and tough to not give a look to after doing so. #1 ON K P also brings established form though one tougher to trust on the win as he has come up short on that front without excuse.

With the C. Winebaugh barn finding a forward trend that timing could be right for #7 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN in this spot and to clear the maiden condition. She should be fit with the third start of the season and while she did NO_FINISH last out at the same time has shown progressive OptixGRADES. #5 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT finds some positive changes for this race as she cuts back in distance and returns to face fillies & mares from the 6/12 event.

The change in class comes into play for both #2 IMAGE OF CURLIN and #6 TRIBEST moving them up on that alone as shown on the Plot. With that said, their current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines creates some further reservations outside of what is shown on paper. 

#6 LEIPZIG can be given an upgrade as she makes her second start off the layoff, back under similar conditions and flow upgraded from the 5/12 race with the top two from off the pace. Her overall form both on the turf/synth fit on par to compete and given another look here where she appears placed well for the connections. That race shape is noted with #7 MS KS DYNASTY taking a tough beat on the wrong side of the photo finish though despite the longer finishing odds opened with early money and support in the multis to suggest she was live on the day.

Haran has been looking for the grass for #9 WHAT’S TO DO and has prior solid grass form and figures and racing at Oaklawn this year did not have that surface opportunity. She  comes into this race with solid form (lack of “Red”) despite the “on paper” running lines and finishing positions and should move up naturally both with the surface, class and circuit change here.

The surface switch (TURF) could be the key to move #1 SEQUAYA up and given another look after the WIDE trip over the yielding with the far outside post last month. She is also the type that has raced herself into shape and while a win could be a reach she fits with many on figures. should be dismissed on the board and one that could be along for a share. 

This might be the most contentious group of non-stakes sprinters put together in the country with every runner a hard knocking racehorse. #6 WENT WEST had to settle for place though still recorded a B OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 4/21 behind rival #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG and will look to turn the tables here. Claimed out of that event WENT WEST has waited their time and fit in this group (Plot) given the complexion of this field and 6.5f distance.

SHACKLEFORD STRONG has been too consistent to dismiss. Going back to the analysis on 5/11 the inside post was a concern in terms of trip that day, however, could turn out in his favor with a different dynamic here. The “speeds” to their outside in #2 ABSOLUTE CHAOS and #4 ELI’S PROMISE should engage early allow for SHACKLEFORD STRONG to track off that duo saving ground for that “stalk and pounce” trip.

Both WENT WEST and SHACKLEFORD STRONG should get the jump on Quad IV Squares #3 GO EMI and #5 CORTESE horses looking to run on for a share while ABSOLUTE CHAOS and ELI’S PROMISE will be looking to hold for a share. 

Since 11/25 myself (and probably the connections) have been waiting for #5 INTERLUDE to make a return. That running line and finishing position at the FG appears unassuming though that run was beyond BTL and compromised with a better outcome to the say the least. They can IMPROVE and does appear well-intended with the layoff and on this circuit, time, and place. Roussel will also send out #8 SHARP STRIKE one that has the benefit of a local start, the addition of blinkers and back to the TURF – the intent for the pair both entered and scratched from the 5/18 event when the races were moved to the main track.

Block will look to send out a pair with the returning #9 EVEN THE WIND one that has yet to pick up the win though has not run a “bad” race to date and first time starter, #12 I O FEDRO one that was unable to compete on 5/25, a vet scratch from a $20k MCL (8.5f turf)  event. The connections also with #2 NOT FALLING BACK wheeling right back for a second start and upside as they move to the turf, the intended surface and one from the visuals that looks to have and likely to show more early speed. 

A bit of a stab though #7 SHEZ RECKLESS could be upgraded in this spot. Going back to the races from last year she was consistently recording some of the higher figures in this field. She required the time off after the tough 2023 campaign returning in a higher level open claiming event on 3/31 where she drew the rail and NO_HANDLE in terms of trip which carried as they wheeled back in just one week for the 4/7 race. She moves outside today and back with C. Ulloa, a rider that has been aboard in the past to suggest some intent.

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, SHEZ RECKLESS could find a favorable trip with the “Fire” Contention and higher 38 SpeedRate with the 3-4 Quad I runners close to and above the ParLine as she sits in Quad II as a smaller Square. That could be the key to work out a “first run” trip on the prime closers in #4 GHAALEB’S MAGIC and #8 GO STORMIN GIRL with #3 TAP N TWINE also in that flight. 

Kicking off what looks to be a solid 9 race card with a route race that figures to be competitive. I feel the best horse in the race is 2-CHAOS REIGNS as Felix rides for DiVito. The key to the race is for Chaos Reigns to avoid hooking up with Slava Ukrani on the front end as we know that one is going to be sent. If he can rate, he should be able to wait until the lane and rally late. If the two do hook up, it could benefit 5-PLAIN OR PEANUT on the quick turnaround. He snuck away with a win last weekend and wheels right back with Slevinsky aboard. He won't show much speed early but will be charging late. 3-JET FLIGHT was a game winner at a price last out as he returns off a bit of a rest. He will also benefit from a quick pace upfront as he could get the jump on a horse like Plain or Peanut.

The first of four on the grass as we run a progression of turf distances on the day. I think there's enough pace for 6-DOCS SEVEN to rally late as she makes her second turf start of the meet. She was closing quickly in her last and should benefit by picking up Mojica in the saddle. 8-RAMBERT battled from the outside in her last and almost held on. She could face some other pace pressure early but may also be the fastest to the front. 1-MOVE IT BABY defeated similar in her last and now slides to the inside. She is a specialist on the grass and actually won at this distance while on the lead last summer.

This is a wildly tough race! Many of the top contenders have similar running styles which could muddy up the early pace situation. The unknown is 2-ARTHURIAN as he makes his first career start on the turf. He isn't a deep closer but also should be on the lead. With a ground saving trip he may be able to tuck in just behind what looks to be a contested back and will just need room in the lane. Colon is riding well and this one may sneak off at a square price. 10-CODE NAME is one of those with speed as he should be able to dictate his race from the outside. He looks to be at his best at this distance and has worked well toward his return. 9-WHERE YA AT VINCE also tries the grass for the first time off a solid maiden breaker at Keeneland in his debut. He may have some tactical speed as he shifts from Catalano to Rivelli for today's race.

With two of the top contenders looking to possibly duke it out on the front end, let's see if some closers can run on late. 8-ARRINGTON ran a good race here three back before running a solid third against better at Indiana two back. She dropped to the bottom in her last and was dropped at the start as the 4-5 favorite. She stays at the bottom today but should be circling horses late. 6-TRIBEST (ARG) is another that should be closing well late as she has been better this meet. The barn is going well and this drop to the bottom comes with a hope for a confidence boost. 2-IMAGE OF CURLIN comes in from Fairmount as she figures to get a good stalking trip today. She picks up bug Slevinsky and could get the jump on the closers at the top of the lane.

It was a really big effort from 7-MS KS DYNASTY last out as she narrowly pulled off the huge upset. That race was over a softer turf as she just got a little leg weary late. She goes a 16th further today and gets her second start with the addition of Lasix and blinkers. 6-LEIPZIG looks to be worth a look on turf or dirt as she makes her second start off the lengthy layoff. She did not take to the softer course last out but if worth another look as things are expected to firm up a bit more. 10-PACIFIC VIEW won on the drop on the main track in her last but has shown some ability on the grass as well. She may settle a bit further back early but should run on late.

A really solid field of Optional Claiming runners as the 6 1/2 furlongs could make the difference. In his first start off the claim, going to look to 6-WENT WEST as he runs for Hugo Rodriguez today. He was rallying late in his last and came up just short while closing along the rail. With the added 16th as well as some pace to chase, he should be able to wait until the lane to move and get up in time. 5-CORTESE was a good winner against similar in his last as he likes this Hawthorne strip. His style is very similar to Went West but his price could be a bit shorter in here. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has tactical speed but I don't expect him to rate too close with the other DiVito runner, Eli's Promise, in this spot as that one has speed. He has been sharp in all four starts on the year and could sit just behind the leaders with a ground saving trip from the rail.

The shift to turf as well as shift in venue and distance could all line up for a good effort from 10-HOYLAKE in this spot. He is bred to run long and should have no issue with turf as he figures to look to find position early and run on in the lane. 9-EVEN THE WIND  has been knocking on the door in a string of races last summer as he makes his return today. His work pattern is consistent as he will just need some pace to chase. 6-LAST RUN gets back to the turf as a tough trip in his last when the rider lost the irons early. He looks to be able to stalk the pace in here and may show more speed early off a snappy gate drill between starts.

Although there looks to be other pace in this race, 6-PLAY TWENTY has a different type of early speed I believe. She was pressed in her last while facing tougher as Palace Magic got a dream trip. If she can clear in here she may never look back. 4-GHAALEB'S MAGIC has been very good at Hawthorne and should be a threat but the question is if she will need a start off the lengthy layoff. She has just a pair of drills leading toward the return but could get a good trip from the second flight if ready. 8-GO STORMIN GIRL ran a good race in her last as she has put together a nice string of races over her last four starts. She loves the track and fits at the distance.

2-CHAOS REIGNS finished third in a tougher field in his local debut. Considering that race wasn’t at his best distance, it was impressive. Stretches out today. Will be hard to beat. 3-JET FLIGHT woke up when stretched out in his third start of the meet. His speed figure from last suggests that he would be marginally competitive with top choice but I love the tenacity he showed winning his last race. Returns at the right level. Might give them a run for the money. 6-SLAVA UKRANI moves up in class after getting claimed from last. He faded to second as the favorite in that race after leading by as much as six lengths at one point. If his new rider can reign in that early speed a bit, he could stay competitive throughout in this race and just might be able to wire the field.

Tough little race. Many of these rivals faced off in a similar races a few weeks ago but that contest was at five and a half furlongs while this five-furlong race is an entirely different creature. Those who ran out of gas late in that last race could have plenty left at the finish of this. But, going to take a bit of a flyer with 6-DOCS SEVEN. She finished third in that last race but thought she was moving best late. Like the switch to Mojica in the irons. There is an abundance of early speed in here. Might be able to get up late. Hard to ignore 1-MOVE IT BABY. She won her last two, beating many of this field. She came from a bit off the pace in those races but she owns plenty of early speed if she needs it. 8-RAMBERT fought hard for the lead in her local debut but ultimately got passed late by Move It Baby. But that was her first race of the year and this race is a sixteenth shorter. She won nearly $150k in turf sprints. Might put the rest of them away. 4-LIPLINER races for a barn that has been sneakily good with turf sprinters. 

It could finally be the day for 4-MINING CAMP. He’s making his 21st start as a maiden but so many of those races have been against better rivals. He finished second the last time he raced at this level. Seems likely to graduate in this one. 3-SKYLANE finished in the money in his last three. He’s another that finished second at this level in last. Looks like the main competition. 1-RAYFIELD makes his debut for the top barn and he gets one of the leading riders in the irons. This barn sports an excellent record with first timers and this one has been working quite well. Figures prominently. 7-PERFORMANCE PLUS finished in the money the last five times he raced in maiden claimers and this mare is facing her easiest field in a long time.

Have to give the edge to 10-CODE NAME. He’ll be making his first start for this barn but he’s been training very well since getting here. He has faced some pretty good rivals and he has enough turf experience to know he handles the surface. 9-WHERE YA AT VINCE was a game winner in his only race. He beat a tough maiden field in that Keeneland event. However, that race was contested on dirt, it was for a different barn, and he might now own the best turf pedigree, though at this distance it doesn’t always matter. 3-TWIRLING ROSES hasn’t regained the terrific form he displayed a few years ago but occasionally he displays flashes of that old talent. He’s had 11 turf sprints at similar distances and finished in the money in six of them. If he fires, he could be a late threat.

5-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT could get the perfect trip. She finished second, in routes, in her last two races. Her last was against the boys. She’s turning back in distance for this but she is still likely to be among the early leaders and she should have plenty left at this distance for the finish. 1-LOST SUNSET is hard to gauge. She led almost all the way in her lone start, under pressure, but got passed very late. She was still well clear of the rest of the field. However, she’ll be joined by other speed type today and not even sure she’ll be the quickest. 6-TRIBEST drops in her fifth start of the meet. Unlike so many in here she’ll do her best running late and the pace does figure to set up for her.

9-WHATS TO DO could be flying late. Oaklawn invader hasn’t raced on turf for a year but most of her early races were on the lawn and she was in against very tough maiden company in Kentucky for most of those starts. She still managed to finish third in three of those seven starts. This could be the easiest field she has ever faced. Might be tough. 7-MS KS DYNASTY missed by only a nose in last, her first race on turf, her first race with Lasix, and her first race after getting claimed by this barn. This big-time closer has a chance to go from last to first and the extra sixteenth mile can work in her favor. 5-TWAS LOLA drops into claimers to give turf a try. Races for the top barn with one of the top riders in her irons. Would expect her to be on or right off the lead throughout.

Wow! Excellent race. I could probably toss only one of the eight contestants. But going to take a chance with the “other” DiVito-trained runner, 4-ELI’S PROMISE. There is plenty of speed in this race, including his stablemate, but don’t know if any in here can keep up early. The six and a half furlong distance could be the main concern. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has been a terror on this track with wins in seven of his 12 local starts. He’s two for two at the distance and his regular rider chose him over Eli’s Promise. That might have been the right decision. His versatility allows him to go for the lead or come from out of it. Tough either way. 6-WENT WEST makes his first start after getting claimed. He finished only a head behind Shackleford Strong in his first local start of the year. He does have decent speed but think he’ll be stalking the pace instead of going for the lead. 

9-EVEN THE WIN might have found his spot. He’s making his first start of the year but, typical for this barn, he’s been training very well. He lost his final start of 2023 by only a head and he also raced competitively in most of his other six turf starts. 5-INTERLUDE tossed in a bit of a clunker in his last start of 2023 but he finished second in his first two starts, all on turf. Like top pick, he’s been training well for his return to racing. Gets the top jock in his irons. 4-SPINNING HEART has some speed. He didn’t seem to fire in his last start in New Orleans but he might be going right to the lead today. 

Wide open race for a bottom level claimer. On any given day, any of these ladies can win this race. Who will it be today? 8-GO STORMIN GIRL is one of the most consistent runners in this race. She has seven local wins and has done well at the distance. With her late-running style, the abundance of early speed helps her chances. 6-PLAY TWENTY loves the front end. However, she likes to be alone of the lead and it seems likely that she’ll have plenty of early company today. Will she hang on? 4-GHAALEB’S MAGIC has been sharp the last couple years and boasts some of the highest speed figures but she’s making her first start since July and her drills don’t instill a lot of confidence. 1-OPALINE seems slower than many in here but she showed an unusual amount of tenacity while winning her last two. She refused to let any pass her. 

THE BELMONT STAKES

Interesting race and interesting morning line. I believe the linemaker has the right favorite pegged but he made a horse with only two lifetime starts the second choice over the winner of the Kentucky Derby and the winner of the Preakness. Maybe he’s right but we’ll see.

I think 9-SIERRA LEONE is the best horse. That being said, we all know he has an issue lugging in. That trait probably cost him the Kentucky Derby win and it at least bothered Forever Young enough that a look by the stewards should have been warranted. His connections are replacing his bit with a cage bit which often helps runners that have a tough time maintaining a straight line. But why wasn’t this done sooner? It was an ongoing issue. It might help, it might not.

3-MYSTIC DAN won the Kentucky Derby and ran well enough to finish second in the Preakness, unable to catch the lone front runner. It would be foolish to think that he wasn’t capable of winning this race.

You have to figure that 1-SEIZE THE DAY will be sent again. It worked so well in the Preakness, even though it hadn’t been his typical M O. But the secret is out and I doubt someone won’t test him early.

That leaves 10-MINDFRAME. He’ll be the “now” horse after two dominating wins. But you have to remember that he hasn’t faced much, certainly not as much as the rest of the highly seasoned runners in this race. Many maintain that this was the weakest 3yo crop in a long time. Is he that good? Maybe. But I think he’ll be overbet.

**FYI, I will be traveling to Europe over the next two weekends, therefore no analysis for those days. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to go to Royal Ascot during the first two days of the meet. Cheers everyone!

Race 6:  7 - 5 - 4

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,5,7,9 / 4,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9,10 / 7  ($48)

Today’s Late P4 might be the best, most wide-open races in one sequence I’ve seen since the meet began. You’ll DEFINITELY want to jump into this pool!  It starts with a challenging two-turn turf claimer. The race on May 12th, Race 4, is one you’ll want to watch. #7 Ms. Ks Dynasty (9-2) ran big losing a ton of ground on the far turn and just coming up short. That was her first start on the turf, and she’s bred well for it as a daughter of Temple City. I’m not a huge fan of the jock, who’s winless in 14 mounts this meet, but he got a feel for her last time and hope he can save more ground than he did in her last start. 

Race 7:  6 - 4 - 5

The highest-quality race of the day is here. I needed #6 Went West (4-1) last time on Illinois Derby Day, and he just missed. Today, he gets an extra ½ furlong and perhaps more early pace to run into. Trainer Rodriguez is 28% at the meet, and Went West is consistent….will close into an expected fast pace. 

Race 8:  5 - 8 - 4

This race is by far the most interesting race on the card, with many question marks and angles to look at for maidens going two turns on the lawn. Trainer Roussel usually brings live turf horses to Hawthorne, and I believe he’s done that again with #5 Interlude (6-1). He was my top choice last time he was supposed to run, but the race was taken off the turf. The son of Mendelssohn ran well in his first two starts as a 2yo, then was wide and got a tough trip at the FG around Thanksgiving 2023. He comes back with several good works, gets our leading jock in Ceneno, and still has plenty of upside as a newly turned 3yo. In these connections I trust….he’ll have to be good in this competitive field.

Race 9:  7 - 6 - 4

The finale is a tricky $4k claimer for the girls. There’s plenty of early speed signed on, and very few horses that have shown the ability to pass their counterparts. I’ll go with #7 Shez Reckless (6-1), who has plenty of numbers on the go-back that would win this race easily. The problem? She hasn’t run that fast lately at all. Perhaps the move back to an outer post will allow her to stalk and pounce. She also is rested up, having not run in 2 months.

THE BELMONT STAKES

Interesting race and interesting morning line. I believe the linemaker has the right favorite pegged but he made a horse with only two lifetime starts the second choice over the winner of the Kentucky Derby and the winner of the Preakness. Maybe he’s right but we’ll see.

I think 9-SIERRA LEONE is the best horse. That being said, we all know he has an issue lugging in. That trait probably cost him the Kentucky Derby win and it at least bothered Forever Young enough that a look by the stewards should have been warranted. His connections are replacing his bit with a cage bit which often helps runners that have a tough time maintaining a straight line. But why wasn’t this done sooner? It was an ongoing issue. It might help, it might not.

3-MYSTIC DAN won the Kentucky Derby and ran well enough to finish second in the Preakness, unable to catch the lone front runner. It would be foolish to think that he wasn’t capable of winning this race.

You have to figure that 1-SEIZE THE DAY will be sent again. It worked so well in the Preakness, even though it hadn’t been his typical M O. But the secret is out and I doubt someone won’t test him early.

That leaves 10-MINDFRAME. He’ll be the “now” horse after two dominating wins. But you have to remember that he hasn’t faced much, certainly not as much as the rest of the highly seasoned runners in this race. Many maintain that this was the weakest 3yo crop in a long time. Is he that good? Maybe. But I think he’ll be overbet.