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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat June 15th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Sailing Solo - 7/5 6 Monsteronthemidway - 6/1 4 Soul Coaxing - 4/1

Will someone claim a nine-year-old for $25,000? It can happen and 1-SAILING SOLO could be the candidate. His works have been sufficient, he has plenty of experience, and he’s making his first start of the year after a lackluster 2023 finale but he’s been great when running fresh. His best, even at this age, would take it. 6-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is another making his first start of the year. He’s taking a bit of a hike in class for this but, with the exception of top choice, this field didn’t come up all that tough. 4-SOUL COAXING has been marginally more successful on dirt but his turf figures suggest he can run with any of these. He’s coming off a good second in a race originally scheduled for turf at this level. Good tactical speed will have him in the hunt throughout.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Carte Blanche - 2/1 5 Irish Valor - 7/5 6 Mister Charming - 12/1

4-CARTE BLANCHE made a nice run but narrowly missed in last, just failing to catch the lone speed. That was his first race since January. It has been a month since that race and he had only one slow and short drill but the pace of this race should set up better. 5-IRISH VALOR looks like the one to beat. He won his last at Prairie Meadows. However, he had two races here at this level prior to that win and finished fourth in both. 6-MISTER CHARMING is the sleeper. He’s never been in this easy. Would expect him to be far more competitive.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Kant Believe It - 7/2 3 Kaely's Sister - 9/2 4 Wilma Mankiller - 9/5

Short but tough field with no toss outs and every member is loaded with speed. Think 2-KANT BELIEVE IT might be slightly the quickest. Love the way she fought for the lead from the start and then drew away in a tough allowance race at Oaklawn in last. Might be forced to fight the same way in this one but could have the same outcome. 3-KAELY’S SISTER has gotten awfully good lately. She didn’t show much in her first start for this barn but she has been dominant in her last two. Plus, she is one of the few in here that has been able to show late run. And, two of her victories came on off tracks, always a possibility here at this time of the year. 1-CAT ATTACK has strong route speed but she’s just not as quick as many in here. That could work in her favor. If the expected heated speed duel develops, she could have late aim on tiring rivals. 4-WILMA MANKILLER has shown flashes of brilliance in her five victories. However, this is a pretty salty group and she is making her first start since October, though she has been working very well. 5-PURR SEA has plenty of speed but maybe not the kind of speed many of her rivals possess. Not sure she’ll keep up early and she’s never shown any kind of closing move. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Tonys Morning Line - 5/2 7 Risky Boy - 9/2 6 First Masamune - 6/1

4-TONY’S MORNING LINE meets easier. The last two times he raced here, he faced tough winners that came back to win their next starts. He’s probably not facing any of those kind today. 7-RISKY BOY moves up a notch but he’s been in decent form for a while where most of his rivals are not. 6-FIRST MASAMUNE is probably better in route races but he’s racing at the right level today and could come flying late.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 A P Blazing Green - 9/5 4 Canyon Shadows - 5/2 6 Pontus - 7/2

Off a solid third-place finish in last, meeting allowance company,1-AP BLAZING GREEN could be the one to beat. That race was against state breds but he also finished second in an open company turf race in his previous start on grass. Drops back into maidens. He owns decent speed in a race with no real front runners. He finished behind Canyon Shadows in his previous two starts but could turn the tables now that they are on the weeds. Could be right there all the way. 4-CANYON SHADOWS should finally get the opportunity to run on the lawn. He’s been entered in open-company turf races in last couple but those races kept getting moved to the main track. Today he's going to be meeting Illinois breds, probably on grass. He finished ahead of top choice the last two times they met. Can do it again. 6-PONTUS finished in the money in both races versus state breds. Tries turf for the first time. Could be a factor.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Lookin for Revenge - 5/2 3 Not Very Gentle - 9/2 5 Jim and Jim - 4/1

6-LOOKIN FOR REVENGE isn’t exactly a speed demon but he does look like one of only a couple in here that could be sent to the lead. He finished a bit behind Not Very Gentle in last but had shown decent speed early in that race, his local debut. Seems to have only one to beat to the lead today. Can take it all the way. 3-NOT VERY GENTLE faced runaway winners in his two starts this meet, the last winning by 12 and by 21 in his previous start, but he doesn’t seem to be meeting any of that kind today. However, with his running style, he needs a decent pace ahead of him and might not get that today. 5-JIM AND JIM takes a much-needed drop in class. Can’t hurt, may help.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Miss River Rat - 5/2 7 All About Me - 8/5 3 Top Look - 6/1

2-MISS RIVER RAT moves into open company to run on the turf. She’s been in very good form against Illinois breds. She finished last of 12 the last time she met open company on grass but that was against a very tough field in New Orleans. Guessing she fits better in this spot. 7-ALL ABOUT ME ships in. With her speed, she’s likely to go right for the lead. However, she is at her best when unchallenged early and there is an abundance of sprinters that could make life difficult for her on the front end, though the seven and a half furlong distance definitely helps her chances. 3-TOP LOOK might be worth a look. She was claimed from a win in her local debut. Takes on better here but she’s bred for the lawn and could improve dramatically in her first start on the surface.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Heavenly Hash - 3/1 5 Style - 4/1 9 Timeless Glory - 10/1

4-HEAVENLY HASH stood little chance in a far better field last time out but she won her first three races of the meet prior to that race. Drops back to the right level. Could regain her winning ways. 5-STYLE, coming out of the same race as top choice in another that showed little but another likely to wake back up with the drop to the right level. She had won her previous start against runners similar to these. She got claimed from that race by a red hot barn that just wanted to test her against better. But they wasted little time dropping her back where she belongs. When her rider and trainer have teamed up this meet, they win 30% of the time. Can add to that total. 9-TIMELESS GLORY can get a share. She was in far too deep in allowance company in last but she had been in good form racing against this type prior. Can awaken with the drop.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Crossanna - 7/2 4 Argan - 3/1 6 Off the Lam - 4/1

8-CROSSANNA had an impressive debut even though she finished fourth. Starting from an outside post, she raced near the back on the pack for most of the race but turned on the afterburners in the stretch, making up seven lengths, mostly in the final sixteenth, despite racing against glacial fractions. She wound up losing by a half length. However, there doesn’t seem to be all that much speed in this race either so the pace could again be slow. So, once again, she’ll have to do it all on her own. 4-ARGAN, the Kentucky invader, might provide all the early pace. She’s stretching back out and moving back to the lawn. She finished last, 71 lengths back, in her most recent turf race but she did finish third in her turf debut. 6-OFF THE LAM, stablemate of Argan, just missed in last, beating top choice by a head and a nose. That was her first race in 10 weeks and her first race on turf. She’s eligible to improve from both.