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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed June 19th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 AMERICAN RAIDER had recorded the B OptixGRADES under similar conditions and fits right back in this spot though will take on some slightly "new" faces. #3 SIXWILLBERICH being one of those making their debut for the $10k MCL level and should move up naturally with the change alone. #1 QUEBRANCHO another that takes the class drop and recorded B OptixGRADE back in March sprinting at OP though should not have an issue at the ROUTER distance. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 SING A LITTLE SONG returns from a slight freshening and key distance change back to the ONE_TURN. That moves up up exiting the route races exposed at the distance and finds a par similar to the events back at GP earlier this year where she was competitive recorded a B OptixGRADE on 3/15. 

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 12:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#12 SWEET FANTASY earned a follow off the debut last month and green breaking SLOG can benefit from the initial start (PREP) stepping up today. He will need to with #10 AKINMUSIRE returning to maiden company from a competitive B- effort in the KY Juvenile Stakes last month. 

Doug O'Neill has sent out some live runners this CD meet in a limited sample that included Big Salt Lick finishing 3rd in his juvenile debut earlier this month to keep #7 NO MOR STONES on the radar. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 BOLD APPEAL could be the controlling speed running back to her debut effort and figure. The class drop is notable though has been the plan as she has been entered under similar conditions here twice as a TRAINER scratch this meet. 

#8 SWEET LILIBET takes the drop back into MCL company and the right move for her with some upside from the TROUBLE+ EX back in April and competitive move forward last month at PID with a similar par to today's event. The change in class upgraded #6 PATTY VAN TWINKLE last month coming off the layoff and from the subtle trips prior to the break though she should not be overlooked here as a shorter number is projected. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#12 LINCOLN HIGHWAY will need some racing luck to draw in and for a COLD barn though has a big look returning under similar conditions from a BTL effort with adversity last month. 

#7 RECKONING FORCED turning a competitive effort and CLOSE under similar conditions on 5/2 and held his own wheeling right back with rise in class for the Louisville (G3) on the quick 16-day turnaround. He has been given time since to recovery in the form cycle and back to a level where they can compete.

While the COLD trend is noted above, the HOT follows #4 AMERICAN DIAMOND one that fits this race (though no real strong edge) - the positive trend is noted. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The class edge sides with #10 UP ON THE EDGE one that should move up naturally here and her best chance to clear the condition, even if it comes with the claim.

Upside also follows #7 COMPUTADORA with the subtle change and keying off a competitive number with adversity at the shorter sprint distance on 4/27. 

The change in class (DROP) was also required for #8 BRIGHT LADY DAY back in the MSW events last year. While she has found the change in the two recent starts and must step up, each race was split by a layoff line and both drawing the outside, 10 post, and flow upgrade in the recent start.