Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 DANCING MAGIC worked a solid 10.1 at the March sale and can appreciate the connections giving her some time in the barn to “grow” and consistent works over this course coming into this race.

#7 ELIZA VANCE worked 10 flat in March under a ride for that time though looked like one that could benefit from conditioning from those visuals and has plenty of works since. Stablemate #2 MARY MOONGLOW worked 9.4 at the April sale and with consistent works should have her race ready and has surface versatility. 

#2 NO NANNETTE NO requires a top effort though comes into this race with intent for the connections. She will wheel back to make her second start of the cycle in what appeared a PREP last week and should hold fitness for the return to the preferred route distance with that start and WIDE trip under her belt. Further intent could be in play with J. Felix taking over the rider that was aboard for the April win as well as her lone win in 2023.

Looking at the Plot, NO NANNETTE NO should have the Contention (Fire) required to work a trip, though the lower SpeedRate could be a hurdle. While she does have some adversity here at the least she will present value as the majority of the play will side with those Quad I Squares, #3 BLESSED ANNA, #4 SHE BE SHEEHAN and #5 IZZY’S MONSTER. 

The race shape in Race 2 is a good example of how pace can be similar and different at the same time. The Contention here in Race 3 is not as high (less runners in Q1) with the Sun rating though a “faster” early pace is projected with the 67 SpeedRate as at least half of the field is above the ParLine. That scenario should benefit the Quad II/IV Squares #1 T LAW and #5 ICE AXE looking to pull off the “late run” upset as the projected favorites, #3 SHARP STICK and #6 LITTLE STEVEN must deal with each other as well as #2 EUCLID AVENUE one that looking at the Plot, has the pace edge of that trio. 

#7 MURDOCK is likely going to be a heavy favorite and “high owned” in the multi race wagers leading into this race for Rivelli. His sire Vekoma has a lot of steam right now and in capable hands solid for a higher tag after working 9.4 (under a ride) back in April. Physically he travels a lot like Vekoma and in the work was also WARM and wearing blinkers, things that could be expected today.

The two Roussel runners #2 STRANGER’S CHURCH and #5 FACE THE FUTURE will likely battle for the second choice betting role with the steady works and “bullets” coming in for their debut. The moves over this course can be an advantage in these juvenile races and upgraded (in both 2yo events) from the others shipping in to make a start.

Trainer M. Perez does not often bring the juveniles or FTS in with many published works and noted with the pair in this race. Getting a look at these two from the April sale. #3 FINEST CORDON worked 10 flat while still green most of the move on his left lead with #4 BOLD COMFORT in a longer move (and still growing, longer bodied) 20.4.

#2 ANOTHER MYSTERY holds a class edge and intent as he makes his second start off the layoff and back in stakes company looking for that win. He appears to have come out of the allowance last month in good shape working twice since to keep up his conditioning. Trip will be key as he can often leave himself too much to do late, though does not have a career history of that deep closer role to put himself into the race and key for O. Mojica here.

#3 RICHIESGOTGAME also appears pointed to this event shipping in for his second start off the layoff and with a solid record over this Hawthorne turf course. He should move forward from the allowance showing run in a less than ideal trip (OptixNOTES) 19-days ago. J. Felix will pick up the mount and has been riding this turf course to near perfection as of late.

Tough to discuss any race #5 READTHECLIFFNOTES is in without a mention as he is a game racehorse that can never be discounted. He shows up each and every time and M. Boyce has kept him fit, healthy and happy in true professional racehorse form. 

#5 TRIBEST has recorded some of the highest figures in the field and as the connections drop to this lower level for the first time she should have no excuses here. With that said, she has shown declining figures in her recent starts and if she is to just run back to the 58 figure in her most recent start, that number does not give her the edge over others in this field.

That includes rail runner, #1 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN one that was “colder” on the board last out and wheels right back with the route return and could be upgraded with a subtle every other pattern. Mojica takes over today opening up the mount for R. Slevinsky aboard #7 SHARP ATTACK as she stretches out for the first time and presents upside in that role as a “new” face in a proven group. 

A good race to start a solid late Pick 5: the race shape here is similar to Race 2 with the “Fire” Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate. In that race, was willing to take a “stab” with a runner from off the pace given price compensation, though in this spot will look for some value with a runner that has tactical speed even though #6 VIOLENT GIGI is a use coming back from a BTL effort two weeks ago.

#5 READTHETRANSCRIPT pulled off the upset opening week though required some recovery before returning last month at FAN and now makes a return to the course, distance and condition of that recent win. Looking at the Plot, his Quad II position could be key with the runners  together in Quad 1 as well as Quad III (first call positional speed) that could see a “bunch” scenario early on.  The lower SpeedRate should allow for those Q1 runners to hold for a share and with #8 RISKY BOY the most “obvious” of the bunch, #2 GRAPHENE CASSOCK and #7 ALPINE GHOST are also kept in that mix with price compensation. Price compensation was noted (and then some) for #4 CHRISMAS PRESENT delivering gifts at 28-1 two weeks ago and recorded a new top in his cycle that day with a shorter number expected here.

#1 PATH TO SUCCESS is a must ruse wheeling back from an EX – EXCUSE in the most recent start and belated return to the TURF where he has some buried form that should translate here and carry to his current form that fits on par.

PATH TO SUCCESS does often break SLOG and make his run from off the pace and today’s race shape could assist that trip. There are two E runners in #3 ALL CHOKED UP and #7 SLAVA UKRAINI that project to be joined by #9 AQUACAT as he brings in early speed and on the class drop. While not true E/EP runners, #2 ITWASTHISBIG and #4 LAWMAKER should keep things honest as well as #5 RED HORNET for the Surface/Distance sitting above the ParLine and there are some knocks on the shorter priced runners in this event with that trip.

The G. James barn already pulled off a turf upset this month and #6 EDEN PARADISE could try and follow that pattern as a horse that fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot and Large Square. He was a massive longshot and with good reason returning from the layoff last week at a higher claiming level and likely needed the race. This is a horse that in his career has run back on shorter rest and races into shape.

His Plot position/shape is in line with PATH TO SUCCESS as well as the Standard (current form) on #8 BOURBON LIFE. The Standard form could be utilized and transferred to Surface/Distance as the Plot is picking up on his turf races from last year, all of those races as a juvenile and will make his first start on the TURF of the year. 

#4 FIRST MASAMUNE wheels right back with a subtle change in class and moves up at this level with the recent figures, B- OptixGRADES and return to a route distance. He can also be upgraded from the recent races shapes chasing behind Slow early and Slow/VerySlow late paces playing a role in their outcome. Things change here in a big way as he moves to Quad I/II and form cycle upgrade from the Q4 races this season. The change in Plot position/shape has moved him up in the past and keying off the 8/20 event here last year when that change came into play. He finished 3^rd that day though did so under conditions with a much, much higher OFR than today and with a WIDE trip along with the layoff that followed. Sticking with the Plot theme to find value, visually there is not much between FIRST MASAMUNE and #7 UNIFIED WEEKEND, the expected favorite in this race. 

This race could find a similar 1-2 result as the 5/12 common race with #8 LEA RO and #9 COMMAND POINT as the clear top two on the day. This race is a slightly shorter distance, something that does require a trip for the duo that often make their run from off the pace (Quad IV Squares) and based on the complexion of this field should be the case today and perhaps opens the door for a “first run” trip.

#6 APRIL’S GEM is a distance specialist and also brings in progressive form and numbers on par for today’s race. She has improved as projected with the TURF return and should present value with the recent 5^th place finish sitting on top of the pp’s – a TROUBLE trip that gives her an upgrade and must use here.

#2 SUMMER DAY could find intent and the right trip with the inside post, speed to her inside/outside, to save ground under O. Mojica. She also brings in progressive form with improving figs and GRADES as well as a positive SHORTER distance projection. Her most recent win was at this 7.5f distance with Mojica aboard giving that ideal TACTIC+ ride back on 7/30. 

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE has been looking for the main track and might have been looking for a surface switch on 5/12 despite staying in the race that day. She had the race back on 3/2 that makes her a fit in this field and the current conditioning as well as intent with the blinkers added, a move that assisted her stablemate, Righteous Freedom to clear the maiden condition last weekend with J. Felix in the saddle.

#5 SEMANTICS should land in the right time and place on this circuit. Going back to the KEE MSW event in April she ran her race that day though visually not on the level of those runners and looked to require a DROP. While she remains at the MSW level, the change in circuit provides that class relief and the connections utilizing this option to remain protected rather than stay in KY and likely run for a tag. She wheel back and cut back in distance, which is a bit of an unknown, though would again before more concerned if those changes came with the option to claim.

In terms of the FTS, prerace visuals/board will be key (though does not assist the mulits ending here) even for #6 MACHIVA as the barn almost pulled off an upset with La Perfect Bee in her debut earlier this month. #11 THUNDERSTRIKE is not a true FTS, though can almost be treated as one returning here. The connections debuted on 12/9 at OP, a race outside of the winner that was not very strong, though did still hold a higher OFR than today’s race. The timing of that debut during the first part of that meet suggests the connections were clearly looking to run that OP season had a setback after that first start to suggest she has plenty more to show and picking up Lasix, blinkers with steady, quick local published moves improvement is not out of the question. 

Really good to see a couple of 2yo races fill as we kick things off with the fillies. 7-ELIZA VANCE draws outside which could be a benefit as she will be the last to load. Rivelli is known to have his young horses ready to show speed as this once could quickly clear from the outside and never look back. 1-DANCING MAGIC will have to work out a trip from the rail in her debut as she has posted consistent drills coming into this spot. She is well bred and figures to take some action. 3-FAITH HOPE N LOVE could be worth a look off a nice pattern of drills at Fairmount leading into here. She comes up to run for the added money as she could be ready at first asking.

Only five in here but a competitive five as all could be a factor. 3-BLESSED ANNA looks to get to her race two back where she stalked the pace and took over late. She should be on or near the lead in here and I don't expect a very fast pace. Let's see if she can rally in the lane and outkick Izzy's Monster to the wire. 5-IZZY'S MONSTER did get the best of Blessed Anna last out as she stalked and wore her down late. I would expect a similar trip once again as the only thing that could work against her is a slow pace upfront. 4-SHE BE SHEEHAN stretches back out today as she could be the sleeper in here. She may look to try to sneak away early and if she can shake loose early she may be able to steal this one.

I was glad to see this race fill as it is a very competitive bunch. A horse knocking on the door at this level is 6-LITTLE STEVEN as he has tactical speed and could get a great stalking trip. Mojica is back in the saddle once again as the pace should be honest upfront. 2-EUCLID AVENUE is the one that looks to carve things out on the front end, something he has done in all three starts since stretching out. He wired a field of maidens two back and held his own in the mud last out. Felix has shown the ability to back things down on the front end and let's see if he looks to take that route in here today. 3-SHARP STICK is the one that could step up as he has run a pair of respectable races in his two starts since being claimed. He has tactical speed and picks up a strong finisher in Cohen in the saddle.

Good to see nine maiden boys in here with many in with a shot. 7-MURDOCK is the Rivelli runner that debuts off a nice workout pattern. He has a pair of snappy gate drills and I expect he gets sent hard early. 5-FACE THE FUTURE is one of two Roussel runners that has worked in company with Stranger's Church leading into this spot. Both can contend but I chose this one as Felix tends to be the regular rider for this barn. 1-COOLTHING ran well in his debut as he chased and show some run late. Having the race under his belt will help but he will need to get away cleanly from the rail today.

Stakes runners in the Buck's Boy in what should be an interesting pace race. Wondering if 5-READTHECLIFFNOTES could look to steal this one on the lead as there isn't much early pace in this race. He ran well in a tough turf event last out and battled late into the lane. This race is a 16th shorter which could benefit his chances today. 2-ANOTHER MYSTERY was a good second in that last out in his first start off the layoff. He is going to need pace to chase though as that's the one thing that could work against him a bit over the firm turf with the pace-less race. 3-RICHIESGOTGAME comes in for Mike Maker as he has been good at Hawthorne throughout his career and makes his second start of the year. His last was off an 11 month layoff as he has every right to improve today.

A lot of unknowns in this field with numerous horses stretching out today. One of those is 7-SHARP ATTACK as she makes her second start at this level. She ran a decent race in the mud in her last and I wouldn't be surprised if she showed speed with the stretch to two turns. 5-TRIBEST is overdue for the maiden score but she continues to run solid races and has past two turn experience. She's going to take a lot of action for a barn that has had a solid meet. 1-GOOD MAGIC WOMAN ran a decent race around two turns in her first start of the meet before a good sprint effort two back. She tailed off a bit in her last but looks to improve with the switch to Mojica in the saddle in here.

Another really competitive bunch here that is led by 3-CHARLIE LIGHTNING as he makes his second start off the claim. He was a strong winner last out under a good ride from Colon and looks to get a similar trip in here.6-VIOLENT GIGI runs for the new barn today and he was closing late in his last. He has come up a bit short in his last couple despite getting fast paces to chase and he should see similar in front of him again today. 5-READTHETRANSCRIPT was a good winner at a price here two races back and could get a perfect stalking trip today. The price should be right once again as Reyes has been riding well of late.

Have to think 5-RED HORNET will be very tough in here after scratching out of a spot on Saturday where I felt he was competitive as well. He gets back on the grass which should turn his form around and gets pace to chase. Expect him to settle early and look to rally in the lane. 3-ALL CHOKED UP wired the field in his last and looks to be sent away early once again. I don't expect the easy lead though that he found two weeks ago as he may have to work a bit to maintain his front end advantage. 4-LAWMAKER will benefit if there is a contested pace ahead of him as he ran well over this course last year. He was a good winner on the Indiana turf last fall as well and likely needed his last as he typically doesn't sprint. He's the price play today.

A wildly difficult field here with the likely pace of the race stuck on the far outside. Wondering if 4-FIRST MASAMUNE will take advantage of the hot bug Slevinsky in the saddle and the weight off as he stretches back out today. His last two races were solid while facing tougher and the combination of class relief and lack of pace could work to his advantage. 5-CHICKS FOR FREE ran a good race in his last as he battled the entire way. He has improved over his last four starts for a barn that has had a good meet, oftentimes with prices. 7-UNIFIED WEEKEND has been very popular at the claim box as he makes his second start off the layoff and first for the new connections. He has a tendency to get into the mix late but often comes up just short while at a short price. Mojica did ride last out though and returns in the saddle today.

Another really good wagering race as the 7 1/2 furlongs could make things interesting. With the shorter run into the first turn, both 9-COMMAND POINT and 8-LEA Ro figure to take back early and look to tuck in. Command Point has been very consistent as she showed versatility with a good dirt effort last out in a race taken off the grass. She was second and third at this distance last summer but appears very tough in here today. I'm expecting 10-QUILTING PARTY is send for position early from her outside draw as she has the ability to show a little early speed. She will be a price in this spot but has improved in each start this meet and figures to once again. 8-LEAH RO will just have to work out a trip as she figures to drop back early and make one run in the lane.  She tried hard over a Yielding course in her last and merits a look once again.

This race is as wide open as they come to close out the card. Every horse in here can win. I went to 7-TAKER BACK as she returns to the main track today and should be able to show some speed in here. Her Oaklawn slop sprints were strong and she should be forwardly placed in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 10-LALY is the other possible speed of the field as she ran a really nice race last out. She may get sent away from the outside today but a repeat of that last performance will put her right there with these. 3-COME ON LADY chased in the race with LALY last out as she has run a pair of good races on the meet. She draws well and may find herself in a perfect stalking spot.

These baby races are over in the blink of an eye so it’s important for the runner to get out of the gate cleanly and quickly. Off the last work 7-ELIZA VANCE might be best equipped to do that. Her :47.0 out of the gate was the second fastest drill of the day and workouts are for all ages so she outworked many older horses. She races for the top barn (24% first timers and 20% 2yos) and gets one of the top riders in her irons. This $285k purchase could be the one to beat. 6-THIRSTY NATALIE has the advantage of experience. She finished fourth of five in a race in Indy a few weeks ago. Like that they gave her an easy drill since. Could have more of an impact in this field. Not crazy about baby first timers starting from the rail but 1-DANCING MAGIC, a $270k purchase, is another racing for a barn that does well with 2-year-olds and first timers, though the sample is much smaller. Her works haven’t been quite as impressive but you know the barn will bring her ready. 3-FAITH HOPE N LOVE has a series of bullet drills at Fanduel. There weren’t as many workers as there are up here but the times were quick. Guessing she’ll be competitive. 

Nice race for the first race of this starter series. Going to give a slight edge to 5-IZZY’S MONSTER. Winner of last in allowance company finished second in her previous two starts in starter company. She owns enough speed to stay close in the early going but can still finish with authority. 4-SHE BE SHEEHAN could be the quickest of these. She pretty much wired the field, going six and a half, in her local debut and beat allowance company that day. However, she has been better in routes. She might never relinquish the lead. 3-BLESSED ANNA owns decent speed but she’s another that might prefer to track the early pace. She finished behind Izzy’s Monster two of the three times they met while defeating her in the other.

6-LITTLE STEVEN looks tough. He’s had four local races and finished in the money in all of them. The speed figures he generated in his last two starts, both seconds, were the highest recently of any in here. He’s capable of running well on or right off the lead. 2-EUCLID AVENUE is probably the quickest of these. He wired the field to graduate two starts back and led most of the way at this level in last. Has a legitimate chance to lead all the way. 5-ICE AXE can share. He didn’t handle the turf or the company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but his late style of running could be favored by the probably quick pace of this race in his return to the main track.

7-MURDOCK, a $375k Carolyn Wilson purchase, makes his debut. With six works over the last seven weeks, he should be ready to go. Had two impressive four-furlong gate drills, getting him prepared to start in good order. With the top barn in his corner, he certainly looks like the one to beat. Owner/trainer Louie Roussel has a pair of runners that look ready to go. Both 5-FACE THE FUTURE and 2-STRANGER’S CHURCH have been training steadily and posting good numbers. 3-FINEST CORDON and 4-BOLD COMFORT are a couple months older than any of the others and, at this stage of the year, that can make a difference. Both are a little short on drills and runners from the Perez barn often need a race but both seem capable.

2-ANOTHER MYSTERY gets the nod. Talented 8-year-old is approaching $670k in earnings. Late running Block trainee will be meeting Illinois breds for the first time since finishing second in the Pizza Man here in 2022. He’s meeting many of that same group today including Richiesgotgame, who beat him by a head in that race. His main obstacle today could be the lack of a legitimate pace to set things up for his closing move. 3-RICHIESGOTGAME hasn’t shown much since getting claimed by this barn but this will be the first time that he meets Illinois breds since that claim. He hasn’t been quite as successful as Another Mystery on turf but he did beat that rival here in the aforementioned Pizza Man the last time they met. 5-READTHECLIFFNOTES never won on turf but he might be the only legitimate speed in the race, though Man On Attacks lone turf win came wire to wire. Readthecliffnotes lost by only a head after leading for all but the last jump the last time he met the top pair in the same race. Another thing to note: with the wacky weather we have been having, it’s possible that this race would be moved to an off main track and, if that happened, his chances improve dramatically.

5-TRIBEST drops and stretches out. She’s typically a bit speedy but that speed should certainly be enhanced with the stretch out. Her barn wins with a lofty 28% of stretched-out runners. This one might not get caught. 2-ARRINGTON is another stretching out. She finished third here in a couple sprints earlier in the meet but they sent her to Indiana, where she went off as the odds-on favorite, but she clipped heels in that race and fell. In her last start here, she hadn’t seemed to recover from her fall. However, the only time they stretched her out on the main track she finished second. 1-GOOD MAGIC WOMAN hasn’t really shown in in past race when they stretched her out but she might be as quick as top choice and her chances can improve with the move to one of the top riders.

Maybe today will be the day for 8-RISKY BOY. He’s been in very good form this year and pretty much runs the same race every time. He’s had a win, three seconds, and a third from his five 2024 races. It will all come down to the trip. Will Santa come twice? 4-CHRISTMAS PRESENT comes off his best effort in a long time. He beat a similar field in last, paying over $58 in doing so. It’s been a while since he was able to string good races together but it’s always possible. 3-CHARLIE LIGHTNING can win right back. He finished second in his local debut and then took last as the odds-on favorite. Meets more accomplished rivals today but seems to be headed in the right direction.

3-ALL CHOKED UP responded with a romp when he was dropped back into the claiming ranks in last, his second start of the meet. Grabbed the lead quickly but never by much until they turned for home and he opened up, ultimately winning by five. He’s meeting better today and facing some other speed but he could be up to the challenge. 9-AQUACAT takes the much needed drop. He hasn’t been having a lot of luck lately but has been in too deep. His speed will be far more evident and useful at this level but he will probably wInd up fighting top pick for the lead. 6-EDEN PARADISE could get the trip. He needed last, his first race since August. Drops in class and finds himself in a race loaded with speed. Could come rolling late.

4-FIRST MASAMUNE could surprise. He’s dropping one more time and stretching to a better distance. Gets a hot apprentice and her seven-pound weight allowance as pilot. Could display better speed and let the others try to catch them. 3-COWBOYS DREAM hasn’t raced in over a year but he’s dropping in class and working well enough to think he’ll be competitive at this level. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE faced a winner that was 20 lengths clear in his first start of the year and a winner that was 12 lengths ahead of the field in last. So, he’s getting closer. Maybe today.

9-COMMAND POINT has been sharp so far this year. She beat many of these rivals at this level and a similar distance, on turf, in her first start of the year and finished second in last, racing on dirt for the first time since her career debut. There isn’t a whole lot of speed to set up for her late run but she’s capable of doing it all on her own. Guessing 2-SUMMER DAY is sitting on a big effort. Her first race of the year was awful but she showed signs of coming around in last on dirt. But she’ll be back on her preferred surface today. Like the strong drill she posted since that last start. Can surprise. 12-MY LADY SLEW is an interesting runner. She’s jumping in class but she looks like the only real speed in the race. Interestingly, she stole one on the lead here last year, going seven and a half and beating many of these rivals including top choice. 

1-PRETTY SKYE makes her debut. Her barn is having an off meet and her recent drills haven’t impressed but do like her works from April and May. 11-THUNDERSTRIKE figures to improve. She raced in ninth throughout in her lone start but she was facing some awfully tough maidens at Oaklawn. She’s been training well since that December race. Adds blinkers and gets first Lasix. 4-SURPRISE ME AGAIN split the field, on turf, in her lone race. But runners from her barn generally improve with experience and the barn sports a 23% win rate with runners going from turf to dirt.