Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 C F V BULLET fits today’s race shape and placed where he can compete. He was claimed back in April for $30k at KEE and the aggressive “first off” placement along with an EX – EXCUSE (TROUBLES+) impacted the outcome closing weekend at OP. To his credit he showed interest making a WIDE MOVE. He was not as effective earlier this month at CD though the race shape had minimal change in running order with the top three together at the wire to suggest he can step up off that and his overall form should translate naturally. The race shape should also play to his RunStyle looking at the Plot and despite the recent change in distance, he has sprint races that fit from his MSW days. 

This is a competitive MSW event and the return to Hawthorne for #4 KING ANTHONY for a sophomore debut makes him a fit as the likely favorite. He debuted under similar conditions last season as a juvenile and with each race showed progression though struggled on class with the circuit switch closing out 2023. While KING ANTHONY is getting a “later” start to the meet, that sets up with the recent published works, a consistent series to have him race ready starting back in April.

The two older runners return from the 6/2 common race and even the 5/4 event where #7 YOUNG MISCHIEF debuted and #6 LA PERFECT BEE was a late scratch. LA PERFECT BEE debuting earlier this month recorded a B OptixGRADE and will pick up Lasix today, something that might not impact performance as much as a change as he has been very WARM in those two “starts” on the track.

Rivelli has the pair in this race and will be interesting with #1 WILLIE BIRD wheeling right back from an “educational” (GREEN) debut last week though more concerning than the timing is the rise in class. His entry in this race could suggest intent for stablemate #5 TALLAPOOSA making their debut today with D. Cohen aboard. 

Some value could be found with #5 RICHIESONAROLL, a contender in this event. He shows up into this race with the lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines to suggest current form and figures on par. He can be upgraded from the recent WIDE trips and holds the win under a similar higher par from December at the FG as well as the 4/21 local allowance.

As far as #1 WENT WEST he was dominant (B+) with the win at this level two weeks ago and will look for that to translate here. While the GRADE suggest he can take the rise in class, he will be tested to do so as today’s OFR is higher than the event last out and is on a quick turnaround at what projects to be a shorter number today. #2 ELI’S PROMISE could be upgraded from that 6/8 common race with the subtle change in distance and race shape that could allow him to carry his speed on the front end, or even rate slightly as a style that has been effective in the past and could be utilized with the rider change to A. Centeno.

#6 COMISKEY PARK raced under a similar par last month at CD and the C+ OptixGRADE is lighter for a contender, however he was making his first start of the cycle that day and coming off a HARD, taxing effort with the win in April at FAN that required recovery and more time between starts. 

Rivelli has a pair in this race and things probably not going as planned as both race first time for the tag today. #6 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK was picked up last year after a dominant (B+) debut win and solid figure. He was not as effective in a contentious stakes race, though that event also brought a quick end to a brief 2023 season. They returned off the bench last month and made a positive PRERACE+ appearance; in running, they were unable to stick around late though did show an early WIDE RUSH before losing ground in that four horse field. They raced without hind shoes and something to mention that could change here.

As far as #4 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE he will race for the higher tag allowance as an IL-bred and in his first start against winners. He caught at solid rival in Good Apple on opening day when making his debut and lost his race (WASTED, GATE) before it even started. He rebounded with the win returning three weeks later though has been off two months since and now the connections are at the least opening the door to move on from them.

#2 TIZ THE TALE will make a belated return and first start against winners. He did race for the tag breaking his maiden in the second start and has tried to run under similar $32-25k N2 conditions since keying off a scratch at DMR in the summer of 2022 and again last December at LRC. 

#1 DOROTHY CROWFOOT has a big look wheeling right back just as she did making a return from the layoff in a seasonal debut three weeks ago. Despite the outcome, she was “race ready” off the bench ran a good race as she was part of the X_FLOW early pace and stayed on in a BLANKET at wire. #5 BEEHIVE was also part of the BLANKET finish, though FLOW-aided in the process and of the two returning here.

#6 SALLY’S SURPRISE is lighter for this level to make a contender case for, though fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot to keep in the mix. The Large Square for #3 TU CHA is also noted and favorable as she has been given the 45-days since the HARD albeit strong B+ effort last early last month at HS Indy.

The placement is not ideal for #2 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY though she presents overall upside (PREP) and worth a follow when placed from her means according to her abilities. 

#1 DRAGON DREW makes his return in this spot and to the turf with intent on the day. B. Cook has been sending out live runners and DRAGON DREW holds the rail, legit early speed (though does not “need the lead” and there is other speed on the outside) back at his preferred surface/distance and with Chris Emigh aboard on Chris Emigh Day!

Tough to say who has been waiting longer for a return to the TURF, this handicapper or #4 PINBALLER. Going back to the first part of the first part of 2023 visually PINBALLER gave the TURF visuals and had just the pair of grass races. In each start he finished out of the top three, however from a number standpoint recorded his higher numbers of the year on the grass and those numbers translate in today’s race and with today’s rivals and in line with #7 SIMPLE LOGIC and PINBALLER should be much higher of those two.

#6 GETTING PAID looks live in this spot for the connections (rider C. Emigh) and in today’s race shape as a Q1 Square that does not “need the lead” to work a trip. He also returns from a B+ OptixGRADE to suggest they can hand a rise in class, which is key with a higher par today. While their tactical speed is an advantage they are not “lone” in that role with #2 HURTS SO BAD along the inside, #7 IRONMAN RICHIE and #9 RIVZONAROLL looking to rebound here after coming up short as the favorite and now the drop (sus) comes into play.

#8 CODETOWIN should move forward in his second start off the layoff and under a similar race par from the 5/26 event. Going back to that day, he returned with the front wraps added and some reservations with that visual though to their credit made a competitive WIDE MOVE and the STRETCH even in an extra half-furlong is a benefit.

 #4 FUTURE VISION is a slight upgrade wheeling back for today’s race. He was on a progressive pattern in the sprints and finds a similar “Fire” Contention when finishing show on 6/1 though moves to a Square on both Plots (a change from that day) paired with a higher SpeedRate today.

#3 STORM BORN should present too much value to ignore in this spot. Class wise this is a rise from the main track races this season though has back turf number under similar conditions that fit on par and his current form has held coming into this race.

While STORM BORN is not the “most likely” winner, the horses in that “most likely” role have some questions. The current form for #1 RIVER REDEMPTION must improve, though arguably this would be the time and place second off the layoff; #4 RED HORNET has had some EX _ EXCUSES this season and the connections looking for the turf to present intent on that front, however he has shown some distance limitations at times and needs things his way as well as top effort to win.

#6 BAKENEKO might be as logical as the other two without coming into this race as obvious. He is picking up a key rider change, and class change for this second start on the turf. Today’s conditions were the plan for him back on 5/4 with intent on the day as he was in a second off form cycle pattern and overall did improve with the WIDE trip on the main track. His “every other” pattern is a further positive and should be sitting on a top effort and looking for that belated win for H. Rodriguez.

#8 DYNABLUE also presents upside from the 5/4 common race and the class drop from the higher claiming even last weekend. His form has remained consistent with turf form and figures that fit on par and looking at the Plot can work out a trip in today’s race shape.

Looking to play against the “most likely” in this event, #11 ROGUE ELEMENT is another “longshot” to keep on the radar. He has back numbers that fit on par and on the turf with early speed in those races which also can be seen visually on the Plot. His current form does not look like much “on paper” however looking at the Past 3 Runlines the trips/form cycle show there is more to the story and even three weeks ago putting in a CLOSE and can move up in the right spot. 

Looking at the Plot in the finale, the early pace projects to be honest with #5 MAD DRAGON and #7 WINGING WAYS both shown above the ParLine and Circles (lacking finishing ability) to assist the “second flight” to work a trip. #2 KENNESAW from the inside should save ground to sit first run on that pair and perhaps the key conditioning as well coming back second off the layoff. #9 LIMA ZULA should find a similar tracking position as he also sits in Quad I and from the outside should move over with ease to track clear with first run.

#1 IDEA MAN can also find the right trip in today’s race shape and coming into this race with current form, the figures and GRADES in the current form cycle. He appeared “live” with sneaky money on 5/26 and had a subtle trip, something they could look to correct here with the rider change and a little more time between starts. IDEA MAN should have the jump on the other “closers” #4 TWO COOKIE RULE and #6 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER. 

Saturday is going to be a warm day with shortened post parades so wager accordingly. 3-PHILIPSBURG kicks off the day as he dropped to this level last out and ran a big race while pressed every step of the way. Unless Sarah's Boy Blue is sent hard in here, I expect Philipsburg to clear the lead and never look back. 6-BREAKING NEWS has good tactical speed as he figures to chase every step of the way. He continues to run good races and continues to step up in class. He loves the track and the distance and should put forth another good effort. 1- CFV BULLET has posted some solid figures while running in Kentucky and Arkansas but the results haven't been there due to the competition as he takes the class drop today. We will see how he handles sprinting as his best efforts have come around two turns.

A solid maiden bunch of lightly raced runners. Rivelli has two in here as 5-TALLAPOOSA gets the nod for me with Cohen in the saddle. He has worked consistently toward his debut and the only concern is that he debuts without Lasix. Let's see what kind of action he takes. 4-KING ANTHONY has run well in his three juvenile starts as he makes his return here. He was able to race on Lasix in his final two-year-old start as that race took place in Louisiana and the drills have been consistent as he comes back off the rest. 6-LA PERFECT BEE closed very well in his debut while at a big price. He adds Lasix off that start and only needs to improve slightly to be a factor once again.

A really good field of $50,000 optional claimers as all six have a shot in here. In his first start off the claim, 1-WENT WEST was able to win impressively and returns right back at this level for the tag. There looks to be a couple with pace in the race as he should be able to stalk once again and run on late. 2-ELI'S PROMISE is one of those with speed who carved things out last time and battled to the wire. The added 16th in that spot may have been the deciding factor as shortening up to three quarters in here could turn things around. 3-ONASA is the other with speed as he makes the return off an 11 month layoff. He likes this track has ability and has worked forwardly toward the return.

Curious to see who heads for the front in here as there are a few possibilities. Thinking 1-DOROTHY CROWFOOT is sent from the inside as she broke her maiden on the front end last summer and rated close at this level in her last. If she can clear from the inside, she could potentially wire this bunch. The pace pressure figures to come from 5-BEEHIVE as she chased last out and was able to catch Dorothy Crowfoot nearing the wire. She's the other one who could possibly show speed but I think her best races are from a stalking spot. 6-SALLY'S SUPRISE could rate just off the pace as well with hopes that the top two challenge one another on the front end. She's gone two turns in her last couple but her best efforts have come at three quarters.

The turf course was very firm last week and led to a lot of front end winners. The sprinklers have been on the course all week long but I still expect a firm course with the recent heat. 5-TIGHTROPE should benefit the most as he is very fast early and has been solid in turf sprints. He will be sent for the lead and if he can beat Dragon Drew to the top from the inside he may never look back. 1-DRAGON DREW is the other with speed as he is proven on turf. He tends to want just a little more distance though and may be left to chase the entire way. 7-SIMPLE LOGIC shortens up in here, a move Block has made a few times with success. With the turn back in distance, I expect him to settle back early and look to rally in the lane.

This is a really competitive bunch which has the pace of the race drawing outside. With the thought that things could come back to the field, 7-IRONMAN RICHIE could be the one to benefit in here. He came off a lengthy layoff into his last start and ran a big race in that spot. He picks up bug Slevinsky again who has been very impressive in the saddle. Look for him to track the leaders early in here and pounce in the lane. 6-GETTIN PAID tracked the early lead last out after getting away a step slowly before rallying in the lane. That slow start may have been beneficial as he will want to avoid hooking up early with Rivzonaroll. Let's see if Chris Emigh gets a win here on the day he is honored as Hawthorne's All-time leading rider. 9-RIVZONAROLL is the speed but may have to work a bit to clear from the outside. He likes this track but with some others possible to push things early, let's see if he is able to shake loose or not.

Make note that 4-Red Hornet will be scratching from this spot for a race on Sunday. You have to dig a bit to find the form but 7-WICKED SURPRISE shows a turf allowance last summer at Hawthorne where he posted a strong figure while at this distance. A string of poor recent races will bring his price up but this isn't a great bunch and he could turn things around. 1-RIVER REDEMPTION is another that hasn't been great in his last couple but he has been very good on the turf, missing the board only once in nine grass starts. He has some tactical speed and this field doesn't look to have much pace. Let's see if he looks to send for a spot today. 11-ROGUE ELEMENT is another that should benefit from the return to turf after a string of poor dirt races. He also could be sent away for an early spot as he looks to turn things around.

The toughest race on the card is the final race on the card. If I were playing the multirace wagers into this spot I would consider ALL in here. 1-IDEA MAN is who I landed on as he has the potential to rally late in a spot that has some pace and he should be the right price. He ran into a solid horse in Breaking News in his first start back and held his own before a slow start hurt his chances in his last. That race also came on an off track. With a fast track return, expect him to contend in here. 6-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER looked much better in his last and could continue to improve as trainer John Haran has had a great year. With the amount of pace in this race, expect him to rally in the lane. 3-BLAZEN ROAD is another worth a look if he can get back to his effort two starts back. That was a winning race as he was only beaten by a quality old sprinter. Look for him to run on in the lane.

3-PHILIPSBURG is about as consistent as they get. He hasn’t finished out of the money in his career while winning two of his seven races. Good tactical speed allows him the luxury of going right for the lead or tracking any runner that outbreaks him. He just doesn’t show any quit. Will be right there. 6-BREAKING NEWS moves up in class but he’s at the top of his game right now. Winner of last three moves up in class his speed figures compare favorably with most in here and he might have the perfect running style to fit the pace of the race. 1-C F V BULLET was claimed for $30k three starts back, finished up the track against better two times and now drops to the lowest level of his career. He’s also turning back in distance while, so far, he’s been better in routes. Obviously off the drop he figures but…

6-LA PERFECT BEE won’t be on the radar of many but thought his debut was very good. He closed well to finish second at a long price. Today he’ll be running with first Lasix and he’ll get an extra sixteenth mile to work with. Can surprise. 4-KING ANTHONY looks tough. He’s making his first start of the year but has been training exceptionally well. He finished third in his first two sprints so the turn back in distance shouldn’t be a factor. Trainer Larry Rivelli has a pair in this race. I kinda like his rail horse Willie Bird a bit better but the barn’s most regular rider took the other, Tallapoosa, instead. 5-TALLAPOOSA is a first timer with modest drills but the barn does win with 24% of those making their debut. The other Rivelli, 1-WILLIE BIRD, finished fifth on turf in his debut but liked the way he was closing in that shorter race. He is racing back quickly but the barn wins with a high percentage of second-time starters.

Tough little race. Of course, it always depends on who fires. Off his last, however, 1-WENT WEST looks like the one to beat. He was a dominant winner in that race, his first off the claim. He was able to stalk the pace and unleash a strong move to win going away. There appears to be more speed in this race which helps his chances but the race is a sixteenth shorter which could diminish that advantage. 2-ELI’S PROMISE fell victim to the late run of top choice in that last start. He was favored and led from the start after a dominant win of his own in his prior outing. But the cut back to six furlongs definitely helps his chances. 5-RICHIESONAROLL was outgunned in a Grade 3 stakes race in his first start of the year but has been highly competitive in all races since.  3-ONASA could vie for the lead. 4-MANTA REY has been racing at the tough Oaklawn oval since December. He might feel like he’s getting class relief, even against this tough group. 6-COMISKEY PARK will be racing right off the early pace. If he moves first, it could be the winning move.

6-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK drops in class to make his second start of the meet. He didn’t beat a rival in his first start of the meet but he was gelded since that race. He’s meeting easier and he has been training well since his snip. Could be the quickest of these. 2-TIZ THE TALE was a $375k purchase. He broke his maiden against maiden claimers in his last start. However, that race was in 2021. Really don’t like the way he was training but the last two drills suggest that the barn has him right. I also know that anything his barn starts is “live”. 5-MAHONEY ROAD is often in the hunt but it’s been over a year since he broke his maiden and he has been racing regularly. Could be vulnerable again.

1-DOROTHY CROWFOOT came up just a bit short in last but she was making her first start of the year and she had fought gamely from the start. It’s possible she’ll be caught up in a speed duel once again but she should be better prepared to handle it with a race under her belt. 5-BEEHIVE edged out top pick for second place in that last race but she already had a couple starts on the year. But she has been a tough competitor in all of her races despite having won only the one race. She and top pick could vie for the lead and might leave the rest of the field far behind. 6-SALLY’S SUPRISE turns back in distance. She has been competitive in routes but all three of her wins came at this distance. She’ll be gunning for the top pair late.

Have to give 5-TIGHTROPE the benefit of the doubt. He appears to be the quickest member of this field. He tired in last but that was his first race since August. He was claimed from that race by a barn that wins with 21% of their claims. If he runs the race that he did in his lone turf start, he won’t get caught. 1-DRAGON DREW might not be quite as quick as top choice but maybe only a couple steps slower. And he’s not one dimensional. He’s just as good, if not better, when coming from off the pace. He’s had far more turf experience than that rival. He took a little break since last after racing much of the winter but he has been working to get back into shape. Figures prominently. 2-STAR OF KODIAK is worth another look. His recent turf numbers lag those of the top pair but he’s had far more turf sprint success than those two combined. He scored seven times at the distance and earned over $192k in those turf sprints. 

9-RIVZONAROLL seems most likely. Speedy gelding drops after fading badly versus better. There’s no reason he HAS to win, especially with all the other speed in here, but he does figure to be the one to catch. 6-GETTIN PAID takes on better but he’s been improving this year and really came alive in last in his first start for this barn. Took on a NW2 field and won going away. Figures to be racing right off the early pace. His first move could be the winning one. 8-CODETOWIN is often favored but it’s been a year since he last visited the winner’s circle. But the pace of this race should suit him perfectly. Could come on late and pass them all. 

1-RIVER REDEMPTION finished up the track in both starts this year but both races were on the main track. He’s just been a better performer on the lawn. He’s had nine turf races and finished in the money in eight of them while winning three times. The drop in class and the return to grass should greatly improve his form and his chances. 4-RED HORNET is hard to figure. For much of his career he faced far better runners, especially on turf, and had considerable success. But in his final turf race of 2023, they dropped him in class and he finished up the track and he’s only split fields, at best, since that race. But he had been claimed by this barn from that last turf race and this will be the first time that he races on the lawn for them. Might wake up. 7-WICKED SUPRISE could surprise. Although he has had only two turf races, he did win one of them. He can challenge early or might even go for the lead. 

2-KENNESAW needed last. He was making his first start of the year and got caught in a speed duel, almost from the very start. Could have an easier time getting to the lead in this one and that could make all the difference. 6-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER might finally be coming around. Late runner showed some signs of life in last after three lackluster races to start the year. The pace will set up. Can score at a huge price. 5-MAD DRAGON wired the field in last. That was only a NW2 and he’s taking on more successful and experienced rivals here but he could be up to the challenge.