Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 DANCING MAGIC worked a solid 10.1 at the March sale and can appreciate the connections giving her some time in the barn to “grow” and consistent works over this course coming into this race.

#7 ELIZA VANCE worked 10 flat in March under a ride for that time though looked like one that could benefit from conditioning from those visuals and has plenty of works since. Stablemate #2 MARY MOONGLOW worked 9.4 at the April sale and with consistent works should have her race ready and has surface versatility. 

#2 NO NANNETTE NO requires a top effort though comes into this race with intent for the connections. She will wheel back to make her second start of the cycle in what appeared a PREP last week and should hold fitness for the return to the preferred route distance with that start and WIDE trip under her belt. Further intent could be in play with J. Felix taking over the rider that was aboard for the April win as well as her lone win in 2023.

Looking at the Plot, NO NANNETTE NO should have the Contention (Fire) required to work a trip, though the lower SpeedRate could be a hurdle. While she does have some adversity here at the least she will present value as the majority of the play will side with those Quad I Squares, #3 BLESSED ANNA, #4 SHE BE SHEEHAN and #5 IZZY’S MONSTER. 

The race shape in Race 2 is a good example of how pace can be similar and different at the same time. The Contention here in Race 3 is not as high (less runners in Q1) with the Sun rating though a “faster” early pace is projected with the 67 SpeedRate as at least half of the field is above the ParLine. That scenario should benefit the Quad II/IV Squares #1 T LAW and #5 ICE AXE looking to pull off the “late run” upset as the projected favorites, #3 SHARP STICK and #6 LITTLE STEVEN must deal with each other as well as #2 EUCLID AVENUE one that looking at the Plot, has the pace edge of that trio. 

#7 MURDOCK is likely going to be a heavy favorite and “high owned” in the multi race wagers leading into this race for Rivelli. His sire Vekoma has a lot of steam right now and in capable hands solid for a higher tag after working 9.4 (under a ride) back in April. Physically he travels a lot like Vekoma and in the work was also WARM and wearing blinkers, things that could be expected today.

The two Roussel runners #2 STRANGER’S CHURCH and #5 FACE THE FUTURE will likely battle for the second choice betting role with the steady works and “bullets” coming in for their debut. The moves over this course can be an advantage in these juvenile races and upgraded (in both 2yo events) from the others shipping in to make a start.

Trainer M. Perez does not often bring the juveniles or FTS in with many published works and noted with the pair in this race. Getting a look at these two from the April sale. #3 FINEST CORDON worked 10 flat while still green most of the move on his left lead with #4 BOLD COMFORT in a longer move (and still growing, longer bodied) 20.4.

#2 ANOTHER MYSTERY holds a class edge and intent as he makes his second start off the layoff and back in stakes company looking for that win. He appears to have come out of the allowance last month in good shape working twice since to keep up his conditioning. Trip will be key as he can often leave himself too much to do late, though does not have a career history of that deep closer role to put himself into the race and key for O. Mojica here.

#3 RICHIESGOTGAME also appears pointed to this event shipping in for his second start off the layoff and with a solid record over this Hawthorne turf course. He should move forward from the allowance showing run in a less than ideal trip (OptixNOTES) 19-days ago. J. Felix will pick up the mount and has been riding this turf course to near perfection as of late.

Tough to discuss any race #5 READTHECLIFFNOTES is in without a mention as he is a game racehorse that can never be discounted. He shows up each and every time and M. Boyce has kept him fit, healthy and happy in true professional racehorse form. 

#5 TRIBEST has recorded some of the highest figures in the field and as the connections drop to this lower level for the first time she should have no excuses here. With that said, she has shown declining figures in her recent starts and if she is to just run back to the 58 figure in her most recent start, that number does not give her the edge over others in this field.

That includes rail runner, #1 GOOD MAGIC WOMAN one that was “colder” on the board last out and wheels right back with the route return and could be upgraded with a subtle every other pattern. Mojica takes over today opening up the mount for R. Slevinsky aboard #7 SHARP ATTACK as she stretches out for the first time and presents upside in that role as a “new” face in a proven group. 

A good race to start a solid late Pick 5: the race shape here is similar to Race 2 with the “Fire” Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate. In that race, was willing to take a “stab” with a runner from off the pace given price compensation, though in this spot will look for some value with a runner that has tactical speed even though #6 VIOLENT GIGI is a use coming back from a BTL effort two weeks ago.

#5 READTHETRANSCRIPT pulled off the upset opening week though required some recovery before returning last month at FAN and now makes a return to the course, distance and condition of that recent win. Looking at the Plot, his Quad II position could be key with the runners  together in Quad 1 as well as Quad III (first call positional speed) that could see a “bunch” scenario early on.  The lower SpeedRate should allow for those Q1 runners to hold for a share and with #8 RISKY BOY the most “obvious” of the bunch, #2 GRAPHENE CASSOCK and #7 ALPINE GHOST are also kept in that mix with price compensation. Price compensation was noted (and then some) for #4 CHRISMAS PRESENT delivering gifts at 28-1 two weeks ago and recorded a new top in his cycle that day with a shorter number expected here.

#1 PATH TO SUCCESS is a must ruse wheeling back from an EX – EXCUSE in the most recent start and belated return to the TURF where he has some buried form that should translate here and carry to his current form that fits on par.

PATH TO SUCCESS does often break SLOG and make his run from off the pace and today’s race shape could assist that trip. There are two E runners in #3 ALL CHOKED UP and #7 SLAVA UKRAINI that project to be joined by #9 AQUACAT as he brings in early speed and on the class drop. While not true E/EP runners, #2 ITWASTHISBIG and #4 LAWMAKER should keep things honest as well as #5 RED HORNET for the Surface/Distance sitting above the ParLine and there are some knocks on the shorter priced runners in this event with that trip.

The G. James barn already pulled off a turf upset this month and #6 EDEN PARADISE could try and follow that pattern as a horse that fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot and Large Square. He was a massive longshot and with good reason returning from the layoff last week at a higher claiming level and likely needed the race. This is a horse that in his career has run back on shorter rest and races into shape.

His Plot position/shape is in line with PATH TO SUCCESS as well as the Standard (current form) on #8 BOURBON LIFE. The Standard form could be utilized and transferred to Surface/Distance as the Plot is picking up on his turf races from last year, all of those races as a juvenile and will make his first start on the TURF of the year. 

#4 FIRST MASAMUNE wheels right back with a subtle change in class and moves up at this level with the recent figures, B- OptixGRADES and return to a route distance. He can also be upgraded from the recent races shapes chasing behind Slow early and Slow/VerySlow late paces playing a role in their outcome. Things change here in a big way as he moves to Quad I/II and form cycle upgrade from the Q4 races this season. The change in Plot position/shape has moved him up in the past and keying off the 8/20 event here last year when that change came into play. He finished 3^rd that day though did so under conditions with a much, much higher OFR than today and with a WIDE trip along with the layoff that followed. Sticking with the Plot theme to find value, visually there is not much between FIRST MASAMUNE and #7 UNIFIED WEEKEND, the expected favorite in this race. 

This race could find a similar 1-2 result as the 5/12 common race with #8 LEA RO and #9 COMMAND POINT as the clear top two on the day. This race is a slightly shorter distance, something that does require a trip for the duo that often make their run from off the pace (Quad IV Squares) and based on the complexion of this field should be the case today and perhaps opens the door for a “first run” trip.

#6 APRIL’S GEM is a distance specialist and also brings in progressive form and numbers on par for today’s race. She has improved as projected with the TURF return and should present value with the recent 5^th place finish sitting on top of the pp’s – a TROUBLE trip that gives her an upgrade and must use here.

#2 SUMMER DAY could find intent and the right trip with the inside post, speed to her inside/outside, to save ground under O. Mojica. She also brings in progressive form with improving figs and GRADES as well as a positive SHORTER distance projection. Her most recent win was at this 7.5f distance with Mojica aboard giving that ideal TACTIC+ ride back on 7/30. 

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE has been looking for the main track and might have been looking for a surface switch on 5/12 despite staying in the race that day. She had the race back on 3/2 that makes her a fit in this field and the current conditioning as well as intent with the blinkers added, a move that assisted her stablemate, Righteous Freedom to clear the maiden condition last weekend with J. Felix in the saddle.

#5 SEMANTICS should land in the right time and place on this circuit. Going back to the KEE MSW event in April she ran her race that day though visually not on the level of those runners and looked to require a DROP. While she remains at the MSW level, the change in circuit provides that class relief and the connections utilizing this option to remain protected rather than stay in KY and likely run for a tag. She wheel back and cut back in distance, which is a bit of an unknown, though would again before more concerned if those changes came with the option to claim.

In terms of the FTS, prerace visuals/board will be key (though does not assist the mulits ending here) even for #6 MACHIVA as the barn almost pulled off an upset with La Perfect Bee in her debut earlier this month. #11 THUNDERSTRIKE is not a true FTS, though can almost be treated as one returning here. The connections debuted on 12/9 at OP, a race outside of the winner that was not very strong, though did still hold a higher OFR than today’s race. The timing of that debut during the first part of that meet suggests the connections were clearly looking to run that OP season had a setback after that first start to suggest she has plenty more to show and picking up Lasix, blinkers with steady, quick local published moves improvement is not out of the question.