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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri June 28th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 11:45 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The 5.5f distance could present a tactical advantage to #4 MOLTO VIVACE as he holds early speed and current form in this second start of the cycle and a lateral move from the recent N2 allowance events. #8 FITZPATRICK has held his form and turned in competitive efforts going back to the EX - EXCUSE and BTL effort off the layoff in April at KEE.

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 MUCHO MOJO is logical as the favorite (preferred to #1 WELAKA) as he finds some class relief from the races this season and intent for the connections second off the claim. They were picked up in early May protected last out and back in for a tag here. The win has been elusive since Jan 2023 and the lone knock at the projected short number though has run competitively including a BTL (2/23 TP) and consistent figures against a higher class.

#2 DONTKISSDAMINISTER finds a lateral change in class and does not hold a class edge in this field. His current form fits on par and with the rider change and slight Plot position change should give him his best chance to compete here. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:46 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
#2 CHANCE returns with some time between starts and spacing similar to the 4/26 place finish and B OptixGRADE with the 92 figure that fits on par. In terms of pace, he requires pace to target and should have that here, a change from the prior starts with today's higher SpeedRate. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 2:51 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 LAST CALL has some upside from the races this season coming back off the layoff. She turned in a BTL effort in the EX - EXCUSE off the layoff at KEE and Geroux overcorrected with the ride and forward tactics PRESSED on 5/11, taken out of her preferred runstyle. 

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 4:27 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 TRIAL wheels back from a BTL effort under similar conditions. Going into that 5/31 allowance she had a big look with the SHORTER distance and sneaky form from the TP series of races earning a follow. 

Churchill Downs Race 11

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race does not have as much of a standout with the complexion of this field to upgrade the lightly raced #5 TIME FOR MAGIC. She must step up though brings in progressive form through subtle trips for a runner that can and already has shown to improve with racing. 

Woodbine Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 AMAZING SUCCESS looked well intended on 6/8 with the class change in the second start of the season. The trip impacted the outcome though showing run can IMPROVE right back under similar conditions. The subtle DROP in class should move up #7 CELENTANO as they land here in their second start taking on winners. 

Woodbine Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 VOICE FROM ABOVE will be required to step up against older in this spot though transferring her form and figures should compete here. She has the back numbers and the win from March at TP under a similar race par to today's event. Timing could also suggest intent for this second start of the meet as well as the turf and landing a local rider.

#7 SILENT SKY is proven at this level and appears intent returning to take on F&M after racing as the lone filly in the 6/9 event. She will also reunite with regular rider, P. Husbands.