Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 D’ARCHER is the one true E/EP runner in this field and on that alone could present the pace advantage in the shorter 5.5f distance and separation in this competitive compact field. He comes into this race with form in the third start off the layoff and some subtle trips playing a role in the outcome and perhaps the reason for another rider change, and some intent with that move as O. Mojica jumps aboard. The other key will be the visuals as D’ARCHER has returned this season with the front wraps on and a removal could signal further positive intent. 

#2 IRISH SPARK will be obvious here on the class drop along, a move that brings her up naturally in this field and in contrast to the others that have run for a tag. She can be upgraded from the races this season specifically the 6/1 race given the WEATHER conditions playing a role on the track making it tougher to make up ground as she ran X_BIAS showing a WIDE MOVE after a poor SLOG/TROUBLE_S.

#5 SWEET SMILA projected to move up on the DROP going back to the MSW visuals last season and while she has run for the tag returning in 2024, she finds a softer spot today with the lower race par. She brings in current form from the races this season and another move forward is not out of the question. Visually she appeared lackluster/PRERACE- on 5/18 off the bench and had a less than ideal TACTIC- ride and TROUBLE on 6/2 and moves off the rail today. She has early speed though does not need the lead like the two runners on her outside in #6 LOST SUNSET and #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

Looking at the PLOT/GRID, it is clear #1 TAHOE RUN and #4 JOE THE TAILOR have a massive class edge in this field. Both are players though strategically,  a decision on one rather than use the two, siding with TAHOE RUN of the pair. He will make his second start off the layoff and shifting back to the dirt, a move that suggest all around intent. They likely were given a race coming in from OP off the 56-day break and the grass conditioning has been used in the past to present a move forward. As far as remaining at the sprint distance, that should not be an issue especially here and has shown early speed sprinting on this course last year. 

The Meraz runners bookending the field are major players in this race and complement each other. #8 CATEGORY TEN will shift to the turf for just a second time (the other was a second career start in MSW company with TROUBLE_S) though should transfer his form as one that has been able to do so on the synthetic and take his game from track-to-track. Sophomore #1 BOURBON LIFE wheels right back from the 6/23 common race upgraded with the WIDE MOVE and strong GALLOP+. Today’s par is higher (something to note for winner #7 RED HORNET stepping up and Plot downgrade here) and though found a similar par back on 6/1 with the dominant B+ win that day to suggest he can compete at this level.   

#2 LUNDBURG finds a lateral change in class with the circuit switch and moves up naturally in this spot. Looking at the Plot, his runstyle fits today’s race shape with early speed to sit off #3 STRANGE ARRANGE with first run. His Plot position is a subtle upgrade shifting to a Square from a Q1 Circle in the 5/12 CD event.

C. Block will send out a pair in this race with both projecting to get attention. Preference again sides with #8 GOOD APPLE one that has shown greater progression than #4 MOONLIGHT ROAD on the track and speed figures. GOOD APPLE finds a subtle post shift and that could make the difference as he has had some gate (TROUBLE_S) in the recent starts as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and drawn similar to his maiden score today.

In the underneath role, #5 FAMILY TRADITION should be fit on the cutback and was around for the minor share under similar conditions here last season. Number wise #7 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR is right there and his N1 efforts earlier this meet were competitive to get a minor share as he resets his form cycle in this spot. 

#9 CONGRATS ON FIFTY could be the “speed of the speed” in this event and form this season as he makes his second start of the cycle upgraded staying on as the BOS X_FLOW in the 6/8 return.

That race a common race for many in this field and tough to deny the BTL effort from #7 ARTHURIAN, the type of trip that caught many eyes and will get attention here. Perhaps more subtle trip for #5 CODE NAME as he was giving up recency off the 106-day layoff caught WIDE X_FLOW chasing the Fast early pace.

Rivelli will send out the pair of sophomores: #10 RAVIN’S TOWN has been more consistent of the two especially in the sprints and noting he stayed in with the recent surfaces switches they could be looking for a MTO scenario here again. #8 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK was dominant on debut and still out to validate that effort. He has some excuses closing out 2023 and some coming back off the layoff last month and physically should handle the TURF. They had considered running last week for the $25k and something to note as they remain protected here.

Another new face sophomore in #2 SPANISH WELLS showing up for a very good turf sprint barn to make a grass debut. Number wise he has been consistent and a slight drop in the par from the 6/9 event, his first off the claim and against winners, should translate to this group.  

There is a slightly extreme race shape looking at the Plot with the Fire Contention and higher 56 SpeedRate, visually shown with the majority of the field in Q1and above the ParLine. That scenario sets up for #6 BROKEN HEARTS BAY with her runstyle. She return from a freshening back in allowance company where she further fits on class and speed as a contender in this race.

Individual factors also present on #7 HYPERSPORT as she makes her Hawthorne debut. While she is one of those Q1 runners the Square is upgraded off that first flight and she is not a “need the lead” type and has been able to rate and finish in the past. She could find that trip or a pressing trip (rather than the pressed) with the change in post moving outside, a trip similar to the win on 4/1 at OP. 

Block has been dominant on the turf this season and tough to ignore anything the barn is sending out especially with a pair as the case here. #1 LICENSE TO STEAL should benefit from the debut experience as he WASTED a lot of energy prerace broke SLOG and showed run making a WIDE MOVE with TURF visuals to support for today’s surface. Mojica shifts to #5 TOWERING STORM, the four-year-old making a belated debut. This one has been in training a long time and plenty of works this season as there should be no excuses on readiness though one to get a look at the visuals in the paddock and clues on the board.

#10 RICKY’S BEST is another 4yo making a return and while not technically a FTS, they can almost be treated as such given the 547-day layoff since the debut, a first start that saw them break SLOG, TROUBLE_S and not asked (NO_PUSH) on the day. The steady works and rider assignment to C. Emigh is enough to take notice here.

#3 CHARBON has been on the radar since his debut with the sneaky good trip back in March at OP showing run and projected to IMPROVE. The timing, WIDE trips and distance played a role in the outcome and as they show up here with the slight break, intent appears in play and could  catch the right time place and price.