Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to get too excited about #4 STARINA in this race, granted the most likely winner. She has recorded some of the higher figures of the group and should have no excuses today, though at the same time requires her top effort and trip with the lateral change in class showing up in this spot.

In terms of the other “experienced” runners in this field they are a “what you see is what you get” though perhaps there is more than meets the eye on #1 REALISTIC GOAL keying off the 4/7 effort under similar conditions putting in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the SLOG and backed that up with a sneaky BTL on 5/12 on the turf.

The lesser exposed runners could jump up as #3 MACHIVA makes a second career start wheeling back in a week with the added ground and was a NO_PUSH after the SLOG to suggest she could hold a move forward. It is tough to debut around two turns, the hurdle for #6 W W LAST LAUGH though with this race kicking off the card and the early P5, the access to the board and visuals could assist in this case. 

The most interest, if-there-ever-were-a-time horse in this field sits with #6 MAYSTART. She comes into this race with current form on the upswing of an “every other” pattern to follow the class change. The DROP appears the right move as she exits the higher OC events this year with a much higher par than today’s race. Even looking at the Plot, her class is shown as the lone runner in the field above the ParLine and with some question marks on the others with the “Red” in the recent keywords and the layoff line paired with the drop on the projected favorite, #5 MYSTIC STORM. 

Since the J. Haran claim on #3 ADIVA she has been placed above her head and outclassed from the competition. That could change here as she finds a subtle change with the circuit and drop in par, even a lower par from the 5/25 event over this course earlier this year. The move off the rail could the key and live rider in A. Burgos as she will require an assertive ride for this shorter 5f distance.

#4 DOCS SEVEN projected to move up on the TURF and did just that in the two recent starts and the win earlier this month. She will make the move back to the dirt and the shorter distance today could be bigger hurdle than the surface as trip will be key with her runstyle.

Both #1 LILY’S WOOFY and #6 TRIPLE SCOUT are worth a mention returning from the common race and what, in my opinion, was an interesting DQ. LILY’S WOOFY did drift out (NO_LINE) though she had established the lead and position on TRIPLE SCOUT (FTQ) as those two dueled right from the jump. 

The flip-flopping trainers on both #1 LATIN CASINO and #6 BERNIE LOMAX fit today’s race. Both runners coming with current form and figures on par and have been competitive under similar class conditions on this circuit. Looking at the Plot. They have early speed to work a trip and the jump on the PC/C Quad IV Square runners in this field.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN would not be a surprise surprise again to pair up wins. He comes into this race in form at the right level where he can compete keying off the races last year. While he did not pair wins in 2023, he paired up efforts close enough when placed properly on the winning level. 

This is the type of race that lacks a strong standout from those that have experience and upgrades the two first time starters. #3 TOWERING STORM lands here rather than run against their stablemate on Saturday and catches an arguably softer statebred spot for this debut; #9 STREET FEST comes into this race with steady works, capable connections and a live rider in D. Cohen. He appears well placed for this belated first start coming out today as a four-year-old gelding.

In terms of those that have run, #6 TIGGER ATTACK presents upside with buried form, subtle changes in class from the races this season and should appreciate the STRETCH out wheeling back from the sprint two weeks ago. The filly, #2 COLLIE WRAYS KITTIE also fits today’s surface and distance and could show more than what she has so far to date. 

Looking at the Plot, #7 IMPULSIVENESS could find a similar race shape to the upset win here back on opening (3/24) weekend with his off the pace run (Q4 Square) paired with the higher SpeedRate and Fire Contention. The number on the board could be shorter than it was on the day and value is still required with the deep closing run paired with the class rise. That will also be key with #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT looking for a similar trip and has the ability to position themselves with first run, though also taking that rise in class here.

In terms of the early speed, #3 BRUCE BANNER should fit as the “speed of the speed” returning from the BOS show finish in his first start back off the layoff and has the fitness, conditioning and back numbers. He can often lack finish even with a lone trip, something that makes him tougher to trust on the win end at a projected shorter number. #1 SLAVA UKRAINI has numbers on his best day that fit at this level and early speed that could be effective along with the apprentice weight break, he could be dismissed on the board and upgraded in a value standpoint. 

Trainer E. Rodriguez has a strong hand in this race with the pair of runners leading with ML favorite, #6 DAPPER DUDE, a legitimate player in that role. DAPPER DUDE has been competitive and consistent all season lone though not quite to the allowance level of his rivals this season and the DROP moves him up naturally. Stablemate #1 ALVIN is less established and number wise, the sophomore sits on the lighter side of the two though has shown consistency in his own right. He has shown improvement this season as projected with the IMPROVE back on 4/27 and coming back with the maiden score. He took on winners and the grass for the first time three weeks ago showing more run (SLOG, COVER, MOVE) than the running line and finishing position suggests along with a strong GALLOP+ that should have him right back in the mix here today.

Block runners have been dominant on this turf course and tough to dismiss as the barn sends out #9 COOL AND COLLECTED here. Going back to last season he improved with racing and closing out the 2023 season with an EX _ EXCUSE type trip at HS Indy. Since coming back this year he has yet to run back to his top efforts that will be required to win, though has shown progression race-to-race and another move forward is not out of the question.

#2 LUCKY PAL is upgraded here and keying off the 4/7 effort at this level coming off the layoff earlier this year. The BTL effort caught the eye making a massive WIDE BURST to recover after a TROUBLE_S and just no match for the pacesetting 1-5 chalk winner, Charted. The connections rightfully stepped up in class off that effort and despite faltering late, showed better gate speed and stuck around through an honest opening half mile.

Number wise #7 MINING CAMP has recorded the highest figures in the field and off those numbers paired with the class drop should have no excuses today. The DROP is likely the right move at this point looking for that belated maiden score. They are likely to show early speed and find company in that role with #4 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD one that has lacked stick late, though to their credit set a Very Fast early pace on debut and Fast early pace first off the claim last month.

A contentious early pace, plays to the strengths of the two M. Perez runners with #1 PIRATE MARMALADE coming into form and improving as of late with #8 KEYSER live with R. Slevinsky back on 5/25 and a rebound to that effort has them right back in the mix here. 

HAWTHORNE INVITATIONAL FINAL TOURNAMENT RACE:

What makes this race interesting is the favorite #4 ROAR OF SILENCE one that fits on the DROP though should she break SLOG like the debut, making a run from off the pace can be tricky over the turf and there are many, many, many other ways to land.

#8 POSSESSION caught the eye as a TURF runner on debut and handled herself on the grass here two weeks ago. Class wise was the bigger hurdle than surface as she projects to appreciate the DROP placed to compete here. #5 MOLLY’S TEMPLE also presented as a TURF runner going back to last season as a sophomore. She has improved with each start here on the grass and at this level on 6/9 turned in a sneaky good effort and one she can IMPROVE on.

In terms of the early pace both #2 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN and #9 BABE IN THE WOODS bring early speed and overall consistency to stick around for a share though have NO_FINISH and come up short with PERFECT trips to make them tougher to trust on the win end. The back numbers for #3 MULSANNE make her a player though the bigger question is current form, form that has not been on the level of the races in her past. #10 SAFECRACKER SUE also brings in early speed and might be necessary given the draw to work a trip from the outside. She has recorded numbers that fit on par and progression with racing that brings the most upside of the mentioned seasoned group.

On the opposite end is the lightly raced duo leading with second time starter #7 WW BEST OF TIMES coming in from the learning experience on debut and for capable connections. The changes could be what she needs and unlike some of those others, she is the unproven new face. First time starter #6 WAHIDA OF MARDAN will make a belated debut. She was schedule to debut on the turf last season, had the setback and more recently a GATE scratch on 6/15 at odds of 31-1 though has worked from the gate since and back with O. Hernandez, the rider that was assigned for the debut last year.

#1 SKIP TO BALI can be a bit of a “wild card’ in this field with the move to the grass. Number wise she is considerably slow compared to others and a toss on that alone. From a physical perspective, this surface switch could be what she needs as she does not handle KICKBACK and has shown legitimate sprint speed and from the rail could try to take this group as far as she can on the lead. The other “bookend” #11 LIGHTENING MELODY has some back numbers on the grass that put her in the mix. Trip becomes the biggest hurdle not just with the outside draw but paired with the tendency to SLOG. 

HAWTHORNE INVITATIONAL ALTERNATE FINAL TOURNAMENT RACE:

Looking at the Plot, #4 BOYCE’S BANDITA presents as the controlling speed as a Quad I Square, and the class change today playing a role in the position above the ParLine. That said, she still must contend with the “Fire” Contention and something to consider as the projected favorite. #10 ADIOS MUCHACHAS is also position in Q1 Surface/Distance though on Standard (current form) shifts to Q2 Square. In addition, she brings upside projecting to IMPROVE after tossing her head and breaking in a tangle (TROUBLES+) on 6/8 and finished with a strong CLOSE – tough to see in the running line and finishing position.

#2 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS turned in a B OptixGRADE effort, a winning race for the level under similar conditions with the 4/7 place finish. She can be given a pass on 5/19 stepped up in class above her abilities and stepped forward three weeks ago with a subtle trip and B- OptixGRADE in the show finish.

#8 HOLY IMAGE should present value and based on the Plot could find the right setup in this race. She is not overly flashy “on paper” though the effort with the B- GRADE and 69 Fig has her right in line with #7 CHANEL POINT and BOYCE’S BANDITA and for the connections HOLY IMAGE can get overlooked.

#6 FANCY HILL is another “longshot” to keep on the radar. With each race this year she is moving forward (improving GRADES) and her peak effort, the dominant B+ maiden score closing out 2023 with the 72 figures makes her a contender. 

The finale is a good spot to get creative as on their best day there is not much separation top to bottom in this field. Both V. Childers runners are upgraded here and tough to split: #3 LIPLINER turned in a BTL effort last June over this course and given the PREP coming off the layoff two weeks ago; #6 CHROME ATTACK also given a PREP and an upgrade returning to the TURF for the first time this season. She will race for the tag today, a move that looks to place her where she can compete and similar with C. Emigh picking up the mounts as he has been aboard in the past with in the money finishes.

#7 SHE’S WANDAFUL is obviously very dangerous on her best day and trainer P. Miller is excellent with turf sprinters overall and capable off the long layoff. That said she is still giving up the recency and from a runstyle perspective should find company up front with #1 MADELYN BELLE and #2 RAMBERT in this field and their inside draw. MADELYN BELLE will shift to the turf and has that hurdle while in form and similar form for #4 MOVE IT BABY one that has been on the turf this year though does find a subtle rise and different dynamic to consider in terms of value.

The connections of #8 BALI BABY have been waiting for the turf and logical with that surface switch as her higher numbers and competitive efforts have been contested on the turf/synth and this third off with a little more time between starts should give her the best chance to run back to a top effort, efforts that have her right on par today. Current form as well as the shorter distance is the concern for #9 TAPERINEA one that has shown some mild progression this year though has not quite shown enough or back on her “A” game, something required today in this competitive event.