Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a spot where on numbers there is not much between the field top to bottom. The preference will side with a lightly raced and established runner in this group:

#4 CAPTAIN’S FLAG makes some changes for this third start and second start back off the layoff. He backed up after making a RUSH for position last out at HS Indy though did so into a Fast early pace and can be upgraded on race flow along with the class and distance change.

#5 SECRET HONOR is that “established” runner he has run the most in this field and the only older horse in the group. While he has the two starts at this level (not necessarily a “new” face) he is making a change in distance and race par. The times he has run under a similar race par were his most competitive to date both on numbers and GRADES.

#2 TALLAPOOSA is worth a mention for the connections and the drop for this second start. Going back to his debut just two weeks ago, he might have lost his race in the GATE before it started and making contact with the stall (TROUBLE_S) at the break. Intention also questionable that day as his stablemate Willie Bird (stepping up in class on a 7 day turnaround) set the pace and finished second. The race par is closer to a lateral move for TALLAPOOSA and a slight step up for #3 RED RIZZLER despite the change in claiming tag as the connections are looking for the right spot for him to compete. Class is the big test for #1 MALIBU BRAD stepping back up off the claim though has early speed from the inside to try and take them as far as he can on the lead.  

#2 WILDWOOD SICILIAN appears live in this spot for the third start off the layoff, one of two in for S. Becker and racing today for the claiming tag. The move comes with progressive form returning in this third start off the layoff and a return to Hawthorne looking for a win. He was competitive last season at the higher level with the minor finishes and has had further local success in limited starts as a juvenile along with C. Emigh aboard.

The pace is noted for WILDWOOD SICILIAN with today’s lower SpeedRate and drawn inside the other speed, #6 ABSOLUTE CHAOS. The race shape is also noted for S. Becker stablemate #3 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL also in this field and a capable type though trip will be key as he often has the tendency to break SLOG and make his run from off the pace.

#1 BLOW TORCH wheels back with some key changes for the second start this meet. The distance change back to the ONE_TURN is key as well as the change for a better trip (WIDE, TACTIC-) that impacted his outcome on the day. The connections return with a rider though not a change in class as a positive. 

#2 COWBOY’S DREAM fits today’s condition as he makes his second start off the layoff. He should benefit from the return and subtle change in class. His C+ effort showed run in spots making a middle MOVE to provide some fitness on the two week turnaround. His back class and figures make him a player here and to work out a trip in today’s race shape (Sun) and the edge/value over the other “closer” in #3 MILLARD’S SMILE both Q4 Squares.

The two C. Block runners bookend the field and lead in the selections. #1 FACCIA BELLA will find the bulk of attention coming off the CLOSE place finish together at the wire in the 6/9 common race and overall has recorded some of the higher, most consistent figures that fit on par and with the others in this field. Going back to the 6/9 common race #7 DIAMONDS JOY was given preference of the two and similar right back in this spot. DIAMONDS JOY presented the most upside of the two going into the race and coming out as DIAMONDS JOY made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and had TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip adversity impacting the outcome and suggestive of a move forward. 

This is a tricky race that lacks a standout and requires a “value play” on that alone. #3 HEAVENLY HASH could present value with the 4^th place result last out, a BLANKET finish that included today’s rivals #7 LADY ATLANTIC the 75-1 upset winner and #6 SUPORB on that has been right there 1-2 this season. #5 ESSENTIAL BELLA could also find her form exiting that common race and SLOG on the day moves off the rail, a better draw for her to compete today.

Even a runner such as #1 MORNING LINE NEWS one that “on paper” appears off-form though number wise has improved this cycle and could move up naturally on the drop in this field. Number wise the two recent figures for MORNING LINE NEWS sit in line with the consistent #8 JOLIE RULER one that could be favored here and default public opinion as the “safer” option in this field. 

Looking at the OptixPLOT there are two extreme pace scenarios: #6 ALL ABOUT ME looks to hold dominant early speed (Quad I) and potential to “wire” this field with the early pace advantage. With that said, she is a Circle, and the lack of finish is not only present with that shape but along with the OptixNOTES showing the “Red” Keywords and NO_FINISH in the Past 3 Runlines. #4 MISS RIVER RAT sits on the opposite side of the Surface/Distance Plot as a Quad IV Square and can pick up horses from off the pace, especially with the “bunched” second flight of runners chasing the front runner. MISS RIVER RAT could present more tactical speed with the change in distance from the recent sprint races as shown on Standard (current form) to work out a first run trip.

As the “Red” Keyword and figures are marked in the Past t3 Runlines, the solid GREEN for #1 BALI BABY is an upgrade returning from a BTL effort less than a week ago and the connections must also think she can IMPROVE wheeling right back for this race. #3 SIGNATURE STREET does not hold as much GREEN though can upgraded making a CLOSE X_FLOW in her most recent start, though will take the rise in class to compete here. 

The “Fire” Contention and honest 27 SpeedRate should set up the right trip for #5 GO EMI in this field. His current form (Standard) should allow for first run on the Quad I first flight, and class edge shown visually with the Large Square something that might not as obvious “on paper” with the recent running lines and finishing positions.

Even with the noted race shape, #1 PAT’S PROPERTY should and could attempt to take this field gate-to-wire given his early speed, the rail draw and coming in fresh for J. Haran off the three month break returning to Hawthorne where he picked up his most recent win – the dominant B+ BOS last June under similar conditions to today’s event. 

#2 FLYING SAMURAI looked to hold a pace advantage on 6/15 and did playing a role in the place finish and while he could look to find similar today, things change with #8 HELIOCHROME making his return to the races in this spot. While the F. Bahena trainee will give up recency (235-days) he is back at the right spot to compete and race shape to give a look at a price. His stablemate #6 POWERFUL MAN can also be upgraded returning here. While he does not have as strong a Plot position, he has the benefit of a race and positive OptixNOTE (PREP) in his layoff return last out.

The Plot can also make a case for #3 DIAMOND DAVE returning off the layoff in here and notable with O. Mojica on the call. His position sits in line with #9 FIRST MASAMUNE – one going back to 6/23 looked enough under the radar and the right scenario to get the win on the day, though lacked any real excuse, PLODDY late with the place finish. He should find a similar race shape today and looking at the Plot, no excuses once again and can go back to him as the play at the right number. 

C. Block has been dominant on the turf and sending out a pair is tough to ignore. #5 EVEN THE WIND will make his first start here against winners and while there are hurdles with that change, this gelding holds plenty of foundation and despite taking some time for that initial win, has yet to run a “bad” race including his sneaky good debut.

As far as #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY he will be tested on the rise back to allowance company though the experience against winners and his top effort sits on par and in line with the current form of rivals #6 PROFESSOR HIGGINS shipping in for this race as well as his locally based stablemate, #9 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE for another live turf outfit in L. Roussel.

#4 CODE NAME will be tested with the distance change, though looking at the Plot, has enough early speed where a gate-to-wire threat is present. #1 DANVILLE would clearly move up with this race on the main track, though his grass form does not leave him out of contention here and could be overlooked with this race staying on the turf.

Fingers crossed the weather holds out as this is a nice Saturday card. A reminder, this is also the final Saturday card as we will shift to racing live on Thursdays and Sundays moving forward. In here I went to 3-RED RIZZLER as he is in for the lower take and shifts back to the main track. He ran a nice race on the dirt against better two races back and was running on late. The added 3/16ths can only help and we will see if there's enough pace to chase. 6-REMEMBER THE FEAR comes in from Kentucky for this spot as he turns back to the sprint. I expect he's going to sit back a bit as well but should come running at them late. 4-CAPTAIN'S FLAG tries the dirt for the first time as he also shortens up. Granitz had a winner here last week and ships this one in with a big shot.

This is a race condition that is oftentimes tough to fill. Happy to see this go with a quality field as 3-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL is the one I'll give the nod to. He has sprinted at Churchill in his last couple and has closed ground late in both. He comes over here looking for some pace to chase but may find it from the outside two runners. Let's see if he can pick them off in the lane. 6-ABSOLUTE CHAOS is one of those with speed as he makes his second start of the meet. He faced tougher in his last and held his own. With the class relief, there's the potential he could clear and never look back. 2-WILDWOOD SICILIAN is the second Becker entrant in this spot as he loves this distance and has tactical speed that should put him in a good spot early. He makes his third start of the year and showed strong improvement in his last as you know the barn likes him, as they thought enough of him to claim him back for $40k four starts back.

There's a lot of pace in this race which should set things up for the  closing move of 3-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a bit of a layoff. He was good in his last couple of starts and picks up Mojica in the saddle. Expect him to settle and come flying in the lane. 5-MISTER CHARMING has tactical speed as he shouldn't be more than a couple of lengths off the early pace. He comes off a fine effort in his last and picks up Slevinsky once again in the saddle. 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT has faced tougher in his last couple but gets back to a level where he was a winner three back. He also will benefit from the pace ahead of him as he will be closing quickly.

First turf of the day as we sprint 5 1/2 furlongs in this spot. There appears to be some pace in this race which should set things up for the closing move of 1-FACCIA BELLA along the inside. She shortened up in her last and closed with a rush to miss by only a half length but now gets the added 16th which could be the difference maker. 3-QUIERO DINERO is one that may have to step up a bit to compete but we have seen some Haran runners do just that this meet to win at big prices. This will be her first try on the grass but she has shown some ability to run on late while sprinting and gets that needed pace to chase. 7-DIAMONDS JOY rated in her last and ran a career best figure in that spot at odds of 22-1. She will be much shorter in here but benefits from the outside draw as she should be able to tuck in behind the pacesetters.

Back to the turf as pace makes the race in here. There's little in regard to early speed as 6-ALL ABOUT ME could be the controlling pace in this race. She ran well in her last and almost held on. She gets the weight off with the bug in the saddle today and may go unchallenged the entire way around. 5-DESSET FIRST ran well as she was left to chase All About Me last out. She tries the turf once again and could be the one to settle a bit closer early. 4-MISS RIVER RAT is the new shooter to this spot as she stretches out after four straight sprints. She was a good winner last out and we will see if she chooses to push things along a bit early on.

This is a really good bunch as there's a few different way to look but every once in a while there's that cool horse that you just follow and can't get away from. That horse is in here as 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES is still going strong as a 9yo. He has won 10 times over this track and can win on any surface and has shown versatility to win from on or off the pace. With a couple to the inside that are likely to show speed, I expect he rates and looks to run on in the lane. 3-ARDANWOOD was a good winner in his last as he stalked the pace and wore down the leader late. He faces similar once again and should sit just off the flank of Pats Property in this spot. 1-PATS PROPERTY has been and figures to get sent to the front in here. He posted some solid efforts in short stretch races at Oaklawn but was also a good winner here at a similar level last summer. With the rail draw and potential to clear, let's see if he can steal this one today.

This is possibly the toughest race on the card as the pace should be honest upfront but its a question of who closes late. 1-NOT VERY GENTLE could be that closer as he looks to get back to his form from last year where he was very competitive. He will be able to save ground much of the way in this race and has been at his best over this surface. 9-FIRST MASAMUNE wheels back in two weeks as well as he ran second in the same race that Not Very Gentle comes out of. Slevinsky gave him a good trip in that spot and should have this one right there once again. 4-BLOOMING GARDEN was good last summer as he looks to get back into the form. The one concern for him is that he is typically at his best while showing speed and there's others in here likely to contend early on.

Based off consistency, 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY looks to be the horse to beat. He steps up a bit off his last, where he rated mid pack and closed well late. There is some pace to chase and the distance suits. 8-MAN ON ATTACK is one of those with speed as he ran a huge race over a Yielding course in his last. Expect he is sent away once again early and let's see if he can dig in late. 4-CODE NAME is a bit of an unknown as he figures to show speed in this spot but we will see what his stamina is. He held his own in his only other turf start at a mile last summer at Laurel and could try to outkick Man On Attack to the front in here.

6-REMEMBER THE FEAR drops and turns back in distance. He hasn’t shown much so far but this will be the easiest field he ever met. Expecting to see massive improvement. 2-TALLAPOOSA finished 24 lengths off the winner in last but still managed to beat a rival. Drops to a far better level. Races for the top barn and gets the top rider in the irons. Pay attention. 3-RED RIZZLER beat only one in last but that race was against somewhat better and it was contested on turf. His previous start on dirt was considerably better. The move to the hot apprentice rider should help his chances. 

3-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has been highly competitive in recent sprints on a tougher circuit. He finished out of the money only once in his last 12 starts and he was meeting $140,000 allowance company in a route in that event. He probably won’t be sent to the lead but he should be racing right off it. Can take over late. 5-KHOZAN’S VALENTINE ships up after a game victory at Fanduel in last. That was his first race since August and his first for this barn. However, he has raced here before and been successful. Might be a bit quicker than top choice. Could try to lead throughout. 6-ABSOLUTE CHAOS is probably the quickest member of this field. He tired in his local debut, which was also his first start for this barn but he was in against some highly accomplished rivals. Fits this spot far better.

Can’t help but think that this race will set up for a closer. There are a few in here that figure to be competitive late but have to go with 2-COWBOY’S DREAM. He needed his last, his first race of the year. He made a big middle move but flattened out late. However, he should be better prepared to get the distance after that race. 3-MILLARD’S SMILE beat similar two races back and was second in last versus the same kind of company. It helps that his stablemate Blurt will ensure quick early fractions. His main knock is that he’s had only one drill since his last race on April 28th. Every so often 5-MISTER CHARMING will tease. He did in last when he finished second, only a head back. But he’s had 64 races and managed to win only three. Would have a hard time leaving him out of vertical gimmicks but would also have a hard time projecting him to win.

1-FACCIA BELLA barely lost her local debut. She trailed the field early but flew late and simply ran out of real estate. The extra sixteenth mile should definitely help her chances as well as the probable heated pace ahead of her. 6-GRACELEADSUSHOME turns back in distance which has been a profitable angle for this barn. She’s unlikely to show much speed but could match strides with top choice late. 2-FRANKEL BABY and 4-GRAYTANA could duel for the lead and Diamonds Joy could join them briefly.

8-JOLIE RULER dominated as the odds-on favorite when she returned from Fanduel. That was arguably a tougher field than the one she faces today. Useful speed will allow her to stalk what promises to be a quick pace. She should be able to hit the gas late and pass the early leaders. 6-SUPORB just missed in last after beating a similar field in her previous start. She’ll once again be under intense pressure throughout but she’s switching back to the apprentice rider that was aboard for her win in the previous start. The seven-pound weight allowance can make all the difference. 4-PLAY TWENTY lost all chance in last when she didn’t get out of the gate alertly. She was favored in her last four, winning once. She’ll probably compete for the lead if she fires.

Not in love with 4-MISS RIVER RAT but she is probably the one to beat. Fresh off a dirt sprint victory against state breds, she’ll be seeking to unleash her best effort yet on turf. She didn’t beat a rival in her lone turf route attempt but this appears to be a far easier field. Have to appreciate her barn and rider. 6-ALL ABOUT ME seems like the main competition. On paper she looks like the lone speed but she’s probably going to be joined on the front end by some of the stretching out sprinters. But sharp apprentice rider in her irons certainly enhances her chances. 2-LOTTA ROSES could be the sleeper. She has a pair of turf wins at the distance. She’ll be tracking the pace. Might grab a share late.

Very nice race. Have to give the nod to 1-PAT’S PROPERTY. He seems the quickest member of this field. This could very well be the easiest field he has met since his maiden victory. Can lead every step of the way. 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES is back on his preferred surface and at his favorite distance, while racing at his favorite track. He’s been victorious in 10 of 18 local races. It is possible that he’ll try for the lead but others in here are quicker and he’ll most likely be tracking the early pace. 4-HARD TO FATHOM could get the trip. He was barely beaten in his last start. The pace of this race could be ideal. He could run past them all in the stretch.

9-FIRST MASAMUNE took the lad late in last but wasn’t able to sustain that bid and got caught late while still maintaining a sizable lead over the third-place finisher. Should get a decent pace to run at again. If he gets to the lead late in this one, he could keep it through the finish. 2-FLYING SAMURAI comes off his best race of the year. He fought for the lead from the start and just failed to last. When he’s right, he doesn’t back down from challengers. Maybe he’ll shake loose in this one. 3-DIAMOND DAVE makes his first start of the year. His barn is mired in a tough meet and runners from the barn often need a race or two but he has a decent history of running well fresh. The class drop certainly helps.

12-COACH JIMMMY D is entered for main track only but he looks like a standout in case this race does get moved to the main track. He broke his maiden by seven in his local debut and held on well to finish second in his first start versus winners. 4-CODE NAME stretches out. He appears to be far quicker than any of his rivals. He has tired late in all his races other than his maiden win but he might be able to build a commanding lead with out much effort and have plenty left to hold off those coming on late. 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is always tough. He narrowly lost last after winning his previous two starts. Not sure the pace will be to his liking but he’s sharp enough to do it all on his own. 5-EVEN THE WIND flies late. Recent grad races for the top turf barn. Could make it two in a row. 

Race 6:  4 - 6 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6 / 1,4 / 2,3,6,7,9 / 4,6,7  ($30)

The start of a nice Late P4 begins with turf claimers. I don’t like the morning like price of #4 Miss River Rat (9-5), but if you look carefully, she has numbers on the go-back on grass that are best in this field.Her form seems to be improving and could be tough today given the right trip for a deadly jockey/trainer combo.