Handicapper Tips & Picks

To start off the Sunday card, the field of sophomore fillies are evenly matched though many unproven over the turf. That could present the edge to #1 DI’S SURPRISE in this case as she has the grass experience and intent where has others have run on the main and making the surface switch for the first time here. That includes her Rivelli stablemate #2 DORORTHY CROWFOOT one that has recorded some of the higher figures and numbers returning this season despite picking up the win and those races fit on par here and could find the right tracking trip as well.

Cohen had been aboard both of the Rivelli runners sticking with DI’S SURPRISE today and also had been aboard #5 DREAM NAP, a talented IL-bred that will step up to take on open as well as the turf and would be no surprise for her class to translate here and handle the changes. While she does lose her regular rider, she is in capable hands with O. Mojica taking over. 

This is a tough race where a lot of action will default to #1 CANYON SHADOWS with the connections and form this season. In terms of form, the first two starts make him a main player though after those races, faltered at the GATE and showing declining form that requires a turnaround to a top effort. Perhaps this would be the time with the cutback in distance (though no excuse last out on a Slow early pace) the blinkers off and second Lasix.

Without CANYON SHADOWS running back to those first two efforts, this race is wide open with a case to be made on many including #2 GOOD YEGG making a very, very 952-day belated return to the races. He returns as a 7yo here though has some solid back numbers and the return works are steady with some quicker moves. The connections forced to give him his time and remain protected today, perhaps will be rewarded for their patience.

The works are not as “flashy” or consistent for the other older runner #6 CRUZIN N CURSIN though enough to get ready. Similar in terms of spacing for #4 DOMINANT D. the sophomore debuting runner that will be joined by his stablemate #5 PRAEFECTUS URBANUS one that will make a class change though given a strong Flow-upgrade from the 5/18 race. 

There should be no excuses today for #2 BE LUCKY as he comes into this race with a pace advantage (Plot) and current form this season under similar conditions. He will find a softer race par today as well to move up further, naturally.

Number wise #1 STOLICH fits right in line and another with subtle form this season and has yet to run back to a top effort. This could be the time and place and with a rider change shaking things up as F. Reyes jumps aboard. He should present as a value alternative to likely second choice, #5 CHARLIE BEACH.

The change in class is notable for #6 DASTARDLY DEEDS though is back at a level from the April races earlier this season. His form and figures from those spring races were the same as now and in line with prior dirt form that does not hold any edge in this group. 

#1 CODE RUNNER has been on the “follow” list since the later part of 2023 and the two KY races this season. He has been entered in a couple of times since the KEE race and requiring some time also finds a barn change (same owner) moving to B. Cook, a barn that has sent out some live runners as of late. His presence in this race with the class change could show more tactical speed as shown on the Plot and apply pace pressure to #3 AHEADOFTHEGAME one that “on paper” does have that “lone speed” look.

Villa will drop #6 COMEDIC TIMING for this race and looking to step up with that change alone. That could do the trick based on his figures this season, though still requires a top effort. #5 STRONGER TOGETHER also makes the drop and while his current figures are tougher to make that “natural” move up case for, he has had some “trips” impacting his outcome and the number where a turnaround today could be in play, upgraded on Surface/Distance PLOT and at the least will come with price compensation.

#4 JEFF THE LION is closer to a lateral class change for this race. He brings in progressive form and should run his race though could also still require a lot in his favor to win (Q4) and might not present value in that case. 

This is an interesting race and starting with #1 DICK BEST as the connections show up on this circuit with the Cal-bred and land here after scratching from the Bertrando (Cal bred stakes) on 6/23 at LRC. His numbers, early speed along with the rail draw should have him as the controlling speed (Q1) in this race, however when looking at the OptixRPM, 5 of the 6 in this field share that E/EP RunStyle and could be more contentious than it appears with the one horse that is not listed with that RunStyle, #2 DOUBLE THUNDER capable of showing (Q1/2) early speed as well.

#3 GLOBAL EMPIRE was not always an EP type and could revert back to his off the pace style to work a trip in this field. Number wise he is lighter than the others from Past 3 Runlines though has back numbers on par and his GRADES moving in the right direction. #6 CITY OF GOD is also very light on figures and class. With that said, his BTL effort back on 5/7 caught the eye and appears trainer M. Quinonez has this one shipping back to Hawthorne with a rider change suggesting some intent in play. 

#6 I’M BOX OFFICE is due for some redemption closing out 2023 with an EX- EXCUSE and pairing an EX – EXCUSE in their return here three weeks ago. The compromised TROUBLES+ had them out of contention right from the start and was in hand NO_PUSH. The connections come back in this event with the class drop which is probably not the most ideal move though given the trips and timing could just be looking to have a live horse spotted to win.

#1 LADY HELENA will show up here first off the claim and quick drop that could also have reservations attached while looking for the win. She can be upgraded from the races this season, with the GATE issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S, NO_PUSH) off the bench in May at CD and made a RUSH X_FLOW before losing ground in the claiming event last out. The BTL effort back in February makes her a player here.

Those two fit as the “new” faces at this level and can mix things up with #8 LEIPZIG one that had a big look at this level when a massive 22-1 overlay on 6/8 and turned in a B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level despite the place finish. 

The start of the late Pick 4, is a solid group of allowance runners and competitive, professional racehorses. From value, less interested in playing morning line favorite #4 W W HOTSHOT in this spot and race shape. Part of that is due to the projected pace with the returning #5 FIT TO FLY capable of showing legit early speed off the bench in this field (Q1) and force the hand of W W HOTSHOT to keep them honest or could be looking at a gate-to-wire threat under D. Cohen for L. Rivelli. Number wise W W HOTSHOT has recorded higher figures than stablemate #2 MEGAN’S HONOR, though the SHORTER distance is a positive and has held his form all year long.

Value also worth keeping into consideration for #1 WENT WEST one that turned in a new top of the cycle back on 6/8 and did take a step back number wise despite the win two weeks ago and is back on another quick turnaround and another tough group here. Looking at the Plot, WENT WEST sits in line with #7 DEVIL’S TOWER one that can be upgraded in that case and off his current form this year and third start back off the layoff. He return from a WIDE trip in the Skinner stakes last month, might not have been the best place on the track that day.

J. Haran also has a pair in this race with #3 MACRON coming in with the strong current form and back numbers over #6 MANTA REY though in the complexion of this field (Plot) both are not out of it, though longshots to win. 

Looking at the Plot, this is a competitive race and a race where value ca be found. Double digit runners such as #3 THREEFIFTYSEVEN moves up on the DROP and fits on the surface/distance based on prior seasons with tactical speed to work a trip; #9 PINBALLER was upgraded with the move to the TURF for the first time this season and turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE despite the DELAY to the race and significant ground loss (X_WIDE) making a MOVE in the show finish behind the dominant pacesetting, lone open length winner, Tightrope. Both THREEFIFTYSEVEN and PINBALLER can work out trips in this field and with a projected honest early pace that includes both #5 MCVICKER and #6 DRAGON DREW. 

There is a lot more depth in this race than just #1 BETTY’S SECRET and #3 TOP LOOK some of the runners that hold the higher figures in this field. From a pace standpoint, there is a scenario for #9 SWEET CRYSTAL to “wire” the field, a Flow-upgrade from the races this season and further upgrade with rider change and potential for a front wrap removal. #5 TAP N TWINE is tougher to make a case for as an individual, though looking at the Plot and race shape she can fall into a trip, a trip that could also present for #2 GHAALEB’S MAGIC.

Number wise #6 SHEZA HOOT is softer though recorded a B- OptixGRADE and BTL effort under similar conditions could be competitive and while the recent numbers are light, there are back numbers that fit strongly on par. 

#2 GIANNO looked well placed with the drop and move to the turf, two moves that had been in play (scratches) before the 5/25 event. His place effort (B-) was earned with a less than ideal trip (SLOG, TACTIC-) and against the Very Slow early race shape with a rider change and upgrade.

#3 LA PERFECT BEE has been intended for the TURF since the debut when earning a B OptixGRADE and since has shown run in each start once again back on shorter rest to step up and compete here. #1 PRINCE IS MY BOY turned in a competitive race on the turf in his second career start. The figure was on the lower event though keeping in mind that number was earned as a juvenile and his current form, albeit on the dirt, fits on par.

#8 REGIMENTAL finds the return to MCL company and for the first time MCL company on this circuit, the right DROP to compete. He has a pattern of SLOG that requires a trip and some price compensation.

First time starter #4 I O FEDRO will make a belated debut, a horse that was entered here under similar conditions back on 5/25 (vet) and unable to draw in to a MSW on 6/8 shows up for the live, capable connections. 

Open the day on the grass with high level optional claimers. Rivelli has two in here but 1-DI'S SURPRISE is the more accomplished on turf. She was a good winner in breaking her maiden two can and then held her own against older in her last. She faces 3yo runners in here as she should stalk and pounce. 5-DREAM NAP has run a pair of solid dirt races to open her career as she will be able to rate close as well. Let's see how she takes to the turf as Mojica takes the call. 6-HIGHWOOD is one with speed who also tries the turf for the first time. She picks up the bug in the saddle and may look to clear from the outside.

Unless one of the two firsters steps up, I think it will be tough to beat 1-CANYON SHADOWS in here. He has run on the grass in his last couple but showed ability on the dirt in his first two starts. He shouldn't be too far off the pace as I'm not expecting things to be fast upfront. 4-DOMINANT D debuts for Lopez as he has posted some drills that are worth a look. His gate work on May 26 could be a sign that he may show some early speed which could give him a shot with these. 6-CRUZIN N CURSIN also debuts as he also gets Lasix for this start. He has a consistent pattern of drills coming into here but also has been delayed getting to the races as he makes his debut at 5.

It could be very tough to catch the favorite but I'm going to try with 1-STOLICH in here. He finished just behind likely favorite 2-BE LUCKY in a start three back and will hopefully rate a bit closer early in here. 2-BE LUCKY is going to likely be loose and lonely on the front end. I do wonder if The Geek possibly presses off the long layoff but if this one can catch a breather, maybe he never looks back. 5-CHARLIE'S BEACH is the other that could possibly press as he drops in class in here. His last three races weren't bad by any means as he should take some action in here.

4-JEFF THE LION scratched out of a tougher race Saturday for this spot as he draws favorably inn here. He is getting a bit older as the 9yo looks to get back into the winner's circle. With the class drop today we will see if he finds enough pace to chase. 1-CODE RUNNER posted figures that will make him very competitive today as he has worked well over the track for his first Hawthorne start. Let's see if he can rate close and pounce late. 3-AHEADOFTHEGAME figures to be the one to make the top in this spot. He ran decent races in his last couple but expect him to get sent for the top in this spot.

A couple of new shooters pop up in leg two of this series as 1-DICK BEST looks to be a standout on figures. He comes in from Southern California to race today and comes off a fine win last out. He has speed and the only question will be how he handles things if pressed early by Slava Ukraini. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER looks to get a good stalking trip as he won leg one of this series last out. He will have to hope the pace horses hook up as he looks to stalk and run by late. 3-GLOBAL EMPIRE is another that would benefit from a contested pace as he figures to rally late. He has been at his best over this Hawthorne strip and gets Cohen in the saddle once again.

Back to the grass as we catch a field that has some pace in here to chase. The pace will be needed for 2-MS KS DYNASTY as she looks to rate and run on late. She picks up Santos in the saddle, who has ridden well since coming to Hawthorne. Look for her to save ground and rally late. 6-I'M BOX OFFICE will also need that pace to chase as she looks to rally in the lane. She drops in for the tag for the first time today which could help to boost her confidence with a win. 8-LEIPZIG rated close in her last as she led late and was able to hold place in that spot. Let's see if she can stalk the early pace today as she looks to get the jump on the late closers.

A stakes winner over the track, 4-W W HOTSHOT is fast from the gate and may look to wire this field. He was a solid winner in the mud last out and has posted 10 of his 12 career wins at three quarters. 1-WENT WEST has been good over this track and at the distance as well. He has won his last couple and could be sitting a perfect trip if W W Hotshot and Fit to Fly hook up on the front end. 7-DEVIL'S TOWER returns to Hawthorne after a pair of starts in Iowa. He has tactical speed and also loves the distance, winning 13 of 14 at three quarters.

Pretty wide open race in here as let's give a chance to 9-PINBALLER as he gets back on the grass once again. He ran well over a course that was very speed favoring in his last. Today he gets the added 16th and some pace to chase ahead of him. Let's see if he moves forward and the speed comes back. 6-DRAGON DREW has speed but could have company upfront. Turf sprints have been good to her throughout her career as we will see if she can steal this one. 1-REVERE NOTE draws the rail as she figures to rate close in here. She has been running on the synthetic in recent races but has some turf sprints last year that make her a threat.

There's some pace in this race as I'll look to 3-TOP LOOK to sit just behind the leaders early and run on late. She ran well when claimed two back and is back at the same tag today. Let's see how much action she takes in this race. 5-TAP N TWINE has rallied late in two of her last three as she figures to close ground in here. The distance suits and the price should be right as well. 1-BETTY'S SECRET has speed and is likely sent from the inside. She's going to have company possibly as well from Sweet Crystal on the outside so let's see how she handles things if pressed.

Going the logical route in here as 2-GIANNO is back at the same level once again. He ran well in his last and showed some late run as he picks up a strong finisher in Cohen in the saddle in here. 7-MY BROTHER MIKE ran on behind Gianno in that last race as he made his return to the turf. Felix has ridden this course very well as he takes the return ride today. 4-I O FEDRO debuts for Block as he has put together a consistent pattern of drills into here. He gets Lasix first out and is bred to handle the grass.

This could be a match race between the Rivelli-trained entrants but do think that 1-DI’S SURPRISE holds the edge on turf. She broke her maiden two races back, in a turf sprint, and finished third to a tough winner, who came right back to score again, in last. 2-DOROTHY CROWFOOT could be the better of the two if this race happened to get moved to the main track. She would be making her turf debut but she has been very good in her three dirt races here. 5-DREAM NAP has been a sharp winner in both her races. However, both were dirt sprints and both were against Illinois breds. Her barn in 0-for-15 in recent turf sprints but would never count them out.

1-CANYON SHADOWS appears to hold a dramatic advantage over the rest of the field. He stopped badly in last in a turf route. That was his first race with blinkers and Lasix. He obviously didn’t like blinkers since they come off in this race. Turns back in distance and moves back to the main track. Guessing he’ll gun them down in the stretch. 5-PRAEFECTUS URBANUS needed last. He was making his first start of the year and his first start for this barn. He ran out of gas there but he’s turning back in distance and moving back into the state-bred ranks. Expect dramatic improvement. 2-GOOD YEGG has some better than average workouts coming into his first start since 2021. Could be interesting.

2-BE LUCKY finished well-beaten thirds in his two starts here but those races still make him look like a standout in this field. 5-CHARLIE’S BEACH has been racing regularly downstate. His speed figures suggest that he’s the only one in here capable of giving top choice a run for the money. 1-STOLICH could make late move and be the best of the rest.

4-JEFF THE LION is finally in the right spot. He looked a little tired in his first start of the year but was much improved in last even though he lost by seven. Even though there aren’t many speed types in this race, the pace should be strong enough to set up for his late run.6-COMEDIC TIMING hasn’t seemed to be at his best on dirt. He had been far more effective on synthetic. But he’s dropping enough to erase that apparent disadvantage. He’s another capable of finishing fast. 1-CODE RUNNER drops to make his first start for this barn and his initial race at Hawthorne. He finished up the track in his last three starts but facing somewhat easier helps his chances.

I might be crazy but going to pick against the probable short-odds favorite. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER is at the top of his game right now. This daylight winner of last was narrowly defeated in his first two local starts. He’s probably going to be racing right off the early pace though he is probably quick enough to go for the lead if they wanted to send him. I like that he’s had multiple trips over the track. That just might make enough of a difference. There’s little doubt that 1-DICK BEST will be favored. This California shipper just wired the field at Santa Anita two weeks ago. However, sometimes runners shipping from California have to acclimate. 6-CITY OF GOD can share late. He owns decent speed but don’t think he can keep up with the top pair in the early going. He has shown late run in the past. Might be able to pick up the pieces.

6-I’M BOX OFFICE drops into claimers for the first time. She’s also adding blinkers. She had a lot of things going against her in last, including stumbling at the start and chasing a horse loose on the lead. Her barn has a 27% win rate with runners making their second start off the layoff. Guessing her attack will come late. 1-LADY HELENA makes her first start for this barn and her first trip on this course. Beaten favorite of last adds blinkers which should only serve to increase her natural speed. Might never look back. Not sure about 7-T’WAS LOLA on turf but think she’s capable of surprising if this race does get moved to dirt. Stretches out. Possesses dangerous speed.

4-W W HOTSHOT is certainly good right now. Winner of last two and four of last five (dating back to last year) has also been great here. With his speed, he is capable of going right for the lead or tracking the pace and he has been highly effective at doing both. 3-MACRON has been racing on a tougher circuit. Though he is making his local debut, he’s been training here for a long time. He is capable of dynamic speed. They might try to steal this on the lead. 1-WENT WEST is two-for-two since getting claimed by this barn. Although he has shown good early speed, the name of his game is coming on late. The probable fast pace of this race could allow him to do just that. 5-FIT TO FLY makes his first start of the year but this speedball races for the top barn and they bring their runners ready.

This turf race has few dedicated turf runners so the field should hold together even if the race gets switched to the main track. I would have to think that 6-DRAGON DREW might be the one to beat. He chased the very speedy Tightrope in last in that runner’s record-setting performance. He’s had five wins on grass including three at this distance. Might hold off the rest of the speed. 12-SIMPLE LOGIC comes on late. He’s probably better going longer, he has finisher second in eight grass races for a reason, but a heated speed duel would set things up for him. 8-A P BLAZING GREEN just broke his maiden but he has some good turf races prior. 

9-SWEET CRYSTAL is quick from the gate. She finished second in both start this meet after leading through the early stages. Gets the top jock in the irons today. Maybe that will make the difference. 1-BETTY’S SECRET might not be quite as quick as top choice but she’s shipping in from Fanduel riding a two race win streak and she does have the advantage of the inside post. 3-TOP LOOK drops and heads back to the main track. She showed little in that turf race but had been in good form on dirt. Can bounce back.

2-GIANNO finished second in last when making his turf debut. Races for the top barn. Had a bullet drill since that race. The extra quarter mile of this race would seem to work in his favor. 4-I O FEDRO has been entered many times but for some reason, his races never went. Finally gets his chance. He’s been training well and runs for some of the top connections. 5-BLACK RUSSIAN is another coming off a narrow miss in a shorter turf sprint. He was flying late but ran out of real estate. He’ll have plenty ground to work with today.

Race 7:  3 - 4 - 7

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,4,7 / 1,6,8 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,8   ($54)

This high-class allowance has many runners who’ve faced each other several times. And while one of them can absolutely win, I’m choosing a fresh face (and a price) with #3 Macron (10-1). Trainer Haran is having an excellent meeting by hitting at 20%, and he’s faced some VERY tough foes at Churchill and Oaklawn. He might be a bit pace-dependent, but the speed could come back a bit in here and he picks up talented young rider Centeno. No reason to take a short price in this type of event…although #4 WW Hotshot might be the goods if he’s ready.

Race 8:  6 - 8 - 1

#6 Dragon Drew (4-1) has early speed and experience on turf/synthetics. That’s a deadly combination which should serve the veteran 9yo well. He needed his last effort and should be tighter today. I am concerned he’s lost a bit off the fastball, but his back-class should be telling here.

Race 9:  3 - 1 - 2

I’m hoping #3 Top Look (7-2) lives up to his name. I like the cutback to sprinting and the switch from turf to dirt. The filly has enough tactical speed to put herself in the game early and should be a factor from the start. 

Race 10:  3 - 2 - 8 

The finale looks like a good place to take a flyer and fade the supposed favorites. Dropping in for $20k, maiden first-time turfer #3 La Perfect Bee (10-1) hits the grass, and he’s bred for it. By Bee Jersey out of a Perfect Soul mare, the connections have tried twice to get him on the turf but he’s been rained off. He should show some early speed and be not too far off the pace. The question is simple: will he take to the grass well? With one of the leading riders taking over, I believe the answer is “yes.”