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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat July 6th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Red Rizzler 6 Remember the Fear 4 Captain's Flag

Fingers crossed the weather holds out as this is a nice Saturday card. A reminder, this is also the final Saturday card as we will shift to racing live on Thursdays and Sundays moving forward. In here I went to 3-RED RIZZLER as he is in for the lower take and shifts back to the main track. He ran a nice race on the dirt against better two races back and was running on late. The added 3/16ths can only help and we will see if there's enough pace to chase. 6-REMEMBER THE FEAR comes in from Kentucky for this spot as he turns back to the sprint. I expect he's going to sit back a bit as well but should come running at them late. 4-CAPTAIN'S FLAG tries the dirt for the first time as he also shortens up. Granitz had a winner here last week and ships this one in with a big shot.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Eternally Grateful 6 Absolute Chaos 2 Wildwood Sicilian

This is a race condition that is oftentimes tough to fill. Happy to see this go with a quality field as 3-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL is the one I'll give the nod to. He has sprinted at Churchill in his last couple and has closed ground late in both. He comes over here looking for some pace to chase but may find it from the outside two runners. Let's see if he can pick them off in the lane. 6-ABSOLUTE CHAOS is one of those with speed as he makes his second start of the meet. He faced tougher in his last and held his own. With the class relief, there's the potential he could clear and never look back. 2-WILDWOOD SICILIAN is the second Becker entrant in this spot as he loves this distance and has tactical speed that should put him in a good spot early. He makes his third start of the year and showed strong improvement in his last as you know the barn likes him, as they thought enough of him to claim him back for $40k four starts back.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Millard's Smile 5 Mister Charming 7 Plain Or Peanut

There's a lot of pace in this race which should set things up for the  closing move of 3-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a bit of a layoff. He was good in his last couple of starts and picks up Mojica in the saddle. Expect him to settle and come flying in the lane. 5-MISTER CHARMING has tactical speed as he shouldn't be more than a couple of lengths off the early pace. He comes off a fine effort in his last and picks up Slevinsky once again in the saddle. 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT has faced tougher in his last couple but gets back to a level where he was a winner three back. He also will benefit from the pace ahead of him as he will be closing quickly.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Faccia Bella - 8-5 3 Quiero Dinero - 10-1 7 Diamonds Joy - 5-1

First turf of the day as we sprint 5 1/2 furlongs in this spot. There appears to be some pace in this race which should set things up for the closing move of 1-FACCIA BELLA along the inside. She shortened up in her last and closed with a rush to miss by only a half length but now gets the added 16th which could be the difference maker. 3-QUIERO DINERO is one that may have to step up a bit to compete but we have seen some Haran runners do just that this meet to win at big prices. This will be her first try on the grass but she has shown some ability to run on late while sprinting and gets that needed pace to chase. 7-DIAMONDS JOY rated in her last and ran a career best figure in that spot at odds of 22-1. She will be much shorter in here but benefits from the outside draw as she should be able to tuck in behind the pacesetters.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 All About Me - 2-1 5 Dessert First - 9-2 4 Miss River Rat - 9-5

Back to the turf as pace makes the race in here. There's little in regard to early speed as 6-ALL ABOUT ME could be the controlling pace in this race. She ran well in her last and almost held on. She gets the weight off with the bug in the saddle today and may go unchallenged the entire way around. 5-DESSET FIRST ran well as she was left to chase All About Me last out. She tries the turf once again and could be the one to settle a bit closer early. 4-MISS RIVER RAT is the new shooter to this spot as she stretches out after four straight sprints. She was a good winner last out and we will see if she chooses to push things along a bit early on.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Readthecliffnotes - 3-1 3 Ardanwood - 4-1 1 Pats Property - 5-2

This is a really good bunch as there's a few different way to look but every once in a while there's that cool horse that you just follow and can't get away from. That horse is in here as 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES is still going strong as a 9yo. He has won 10 times over this track and can win on any surface and has shown versatility to win from on or off the pace. With a couple to the inside that are likely to show speed, I expect he rates and looks to run on in the lane. 3-ARDANWOOD was a good winner in his last as he stalked the pace and wore down the leader late. He faces similar once again and should sit just off the flank of Pats Property in this spot. 1-PATS PROPERTY has been and figures to get sent to the front in here. He posted some solid efforts in short stretch races at Oaklawn but was also a good winner here at a similar level last summer. With the rail draw and potential to clear, let's see if he can steal this one today.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Not Very Gentle - 8-1 9 First Masamune - 3-1 4 Blooming Garden - 15-1

This is possibly the toughest race on the card as the pace should be honest upfront but its a question of who closes late. 1-NOT VERY GENTLE could be that closer as he looks to get back to his form from last year where he was very competitive. He will be able to save ground much of the way in this race and has been at his best over this surface. 9-FIRST MASAMUNE wheels back in two weeks as well as he ran second in the same race that Not Very Gentle comes out of. Slevinsky gave him a good trip in that spot and should have this one right there once again. 4-BLOOMING GARDEN was good last summer as he looks to get back into the form. The one concern for him is that he is typically at his best while showing speed and there's others in here likely to contend early on.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Monsteronthemidway - 7-2 8 Man On Attack - 6-1 4 Code Name - 8-1

Based off consistency, 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY looks to be the horse to beat. He steps up a bit off his last, where he rated mid pack and closed well late. There is some pace to chase and the distance suits. 8-MAN ON ATTACK is one of those with speed as he ran a huge race over a Yielding course in his last. Expect he is sent away once again early and let's see if he can dig in late. 4-CODE NAME is a bit of an unknown as he figures to show speed in this spot but we will see what his stamina is. He held his own in his only other turf start at a mile last summer at Laurel and could try to outkick Man On Attack to the front in here.