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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat July 6th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 6:  4 - 6 - 1

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6 / 1,4 / 2,3,6,7,9 / 4,6,7  ($30)

The start of a nice Late P4 begins with turf claimers. I don’t like the morning like price of #4 Miss River Rat (9-5), but if you look carefully, she has numbers on the go-back on grass that are best in this field.Her form seems to be improving and could be tough today given the right trip for a deadly jockey/trainer combo.

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 3

If I were giving out a “Play of the Day”, this would be the one. With a salty group of veterans to beat, you’re almost guaranteed to get a price on #4 Hard to Fathom (8-1). The Hard Spun gelding is one of a few in there that has upside as a 4yo, and he’s improving. Plus, he has a great running style for this predicted race flow. Hope apprentice jock sits off the speed and makes a run in the lane. Has a few lengths to make up on the top choices, but I believe that’s very doable….at a price.

Race 8:  2 - 9 - 6

#2 Flying Samurai (9-2) has not been able to get loose lately, but if he can get the early lead easily, which seems possible here, he could get very brave on the lead…not a lot of horses to trust in this event for nickel claimers. 

Race 9:  6 - 4 - 7

For the last race of the day, it’s time to go to school. #6 Professor Higgins (4-1) has only 6 lifetime starts and therefore a right to improve, plus 2nd start off the layoff. He has a nice closing kick, and although this is a jump up in class on paper, it feels more like a lateral move to me. Needs things to go his way however.