« 07/06/2024 07/08/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 7th, 2024

Download as PDF

Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 7:  3 - 4 - 7

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,4,7 / 1,6,8 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,8   ($54)

This high-class allowance has many runners who’ve faced each other several times. And while one of them can absolutely win, I’m choosing a fresh face (and a price) with #3 Macron (10-1). Trainer Haran is having an excellent meeting by hitting at 20%, and he’s faced some VERY tough foes at Churchill and Oaklawn. He might be a bit pace-dependent, but the speed could come back a bit in here and he picks up talented young rider Centeno. No reason to take a short price in this type of event…although #4 WW Hotshot might be the goods if he’s ready.

Race 8:  6 - 8 - 1

#6 Dragon Drew (4-1) has early speed and experience on turf/synthetics. That’s a deadly combination which should serve the veteran 9yo well. He needed his last effort and should be tighter today. I am concerned he’s lost a bit off the fastball, but his back-class should be telling here.

Race 9:  3 - 1 - 2

I’m hoping #3 Top Look (7-2) lives up to his name. I like the cutback to sprinting and the switch from turf to dirt. The filly has enough tactical speed to put herself in the game early and should be a factor from the start. 

Race 10:  3 - 2 - 8 

The finale looks like a good place to take a flyer and fade the supposed favorites. Dropping in for $20k, maiden first-time turfer #3 La Perfect Bee (10-1) hits the grass, and he’s bred for it. By Bee Jersey out of a Perfect Soul mare, the connections have tried twice to get him on the turf but he’s been rained off. He should show some early speed and be not too far off the pace. The question is simple: will he take to the grass well? With one of the leading riders taking over, I believe the answer is “yes.”