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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat July 13th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Colonial Downs Race 2

Post Time 1:07 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 PRINCESS OF OMAHA is given a look off the debut last month; an appearance of a PREP and has the benefit of experience and the class edge over the other two with experience. 

Ellis Park Race 4

Post Time 1:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 EDDIE M caught a race with minimal change in running order in the layoff return last out to IMPROVE. The change in class is closer to a lateral move with the circuit switch/purse dropping to the claiming level to suggest intent and placing the horse where they can compete. 

Ellis Park Race 6

Post Time 2:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 PENROD will get another look back around two turns and placed where he can compete at the MCL level. His form is buried from the Oaklawn trips as well as the current year given freshening after stumbling at the break (TROUBLE_S) last out at CD. 

Saratoga Race 7

Post Time 2:54 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SAM'S ROCKET is one to follow. She can run and perhaps on talent alone will pick up the win first out though one that has scope and will relish added ground. 

Woodbine Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 SAMMY STONE comes into this race with form and class from the prior seasons that fit on par. The timing also can upgrade him making the second start off the layoff and going back to the 6/16 race compromised by the SLOG, TROUBLE_S in a race shape that played Very Slow early and Slow late. 

#8 PONTIAC could also fly under the radar with the distance change, one that is a positive on the STRETCH out in this third start off the layoff paired with the logical class change to compete. 

#2 KILLARY does not hold as much of an edge back under similar conditions, however has been effective on the innercourse and could have that edge over #6 KINGSCOTE with the surface change today following a BTL effort in the most recent start on the Tapeta price compensation making their grass debut and in against older.

Woodbine Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

All the "red" in the Past 3 Runlines for #2 GABBY SQUARED makes her require some price compensation, though should be there off those recent finishing positions. There are some positives to make the case as she moves up on today's Surface/Distance Plot, Green Alert, and upgraded wheeling back from the X_FLOW trip two weeks ago with the Above rating in the Class column. 

Woodbine Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 POPPY'S JOY is upgraded with the change in circuit giving a slight edge in this spot and preferred over #6 SPELLCHECK one that came up short and PLODDY with a PERFECT trip last out. 

Woodbine Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 VAZHI turned in a BTL effort coming back this season (2/25) at GP that translated to a B race making a MOVE through TRAFFIC on this circuit last out (as well as the B on debut last October as a juvenile) and strong as the favorite in this event. 

Woodbine Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 AWASEF will get a reset, freshening and changes second N/A start. Going back to the 4/24 event, the front runner cleared early and she was taken back and NO_PUSH from off the pace. She comes into this race with steady local works for K. Attard and in a reasonable spot to find where she fits.

Casse is also out to find where #6 EMERANCE fits as she makes her second start off the layoff and in the sophomore season. She can be given a slight flow upgrade from the return last month and a speed figure projection from the juvenile season, though still must step up and while the ML appears fair odds she could be shorter. #10 CRY FREEDOM brings similar upside from the 6/1 common race and on a similar second off the layoff pattern.

#1 OUR FLAG FLYING turned in a BTL (B-) effort last out making a CLOSE into a SLOW early pace and returns under a similar par and what should be different dynamic for her runstyle. 

Woodbine Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In race where a case can be made for many in the field, the 10-1 is appealing on #1 COMANCHE COUNTRY (especially should Poppy's Joy run well earlier on the card) making a local debut. She fits on figures, class and pace for today's race shape and while she is giving up the two month recency, she has steady local works into this event and two races back this year with progressive for in both stakes races.