Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 EUCLID AVENUE will get a lot of attention for the connections, the class drop and from a pace standpoint as they should hold an edge (Q1) with their early speed in this field. #1 STOLICH would present a better number if not for coming back off the place finish last out. Perhaps there will be some dismissal given the distance change, though that would be a mistake as added ground back to a route is a positive . Trip and pace is also key for #3 ARMAVIR one that has held his form at this N2 level and returns from a slight 42-day freshening. As a type that raced himself into shape both this year and last that should again allow him to compete though did have pace to chase and target in the recent minor finishes. 

This should be the spot for #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG to get back on trip and some value to play returning from the 6^th place result last out. Going back to the 6/8 event, trip appeared less than ideal with the complexion of the field pair with the rail draw as well as timing. Those factors change here, even as the rail is present he finds a different dynamic to work a trip from the inside. Timing is a further positive given the 36-days to rest and visually should benefit from that timing to return to a peak effort. 

Starting with the experienced runners: #2 GOOD GOD was given an EX – EXCUSE in his debut (the first 2yo race of the meet) raced GREEN missing the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and overall looked to be given the race as his more fancied stablemate Shezafunkydrummer scored by open lengths as the favorite going gate-to-wire. GOOD GOD off the excuse and the connections is preferred off the initial start though would have preferred a published work after the race to the other three runners returning from the 6/23 common race with their OptixNOTES shown in the FREE OptixEQ Plot for Hawthorne available daily.

In addition to GOOD GOD, and the door open to a first time starter, L. Rivelli will also debut #7 RAVIN’S RANSOM another IL-bred that had some shorter, consistent works before the 4f gate bullet on 7/5. #5 TAKEITAWAY also turned in a snappy half mile move from the gate on 7/7 without earning a bullet for the move though did drill a bullet half mile breeze back on 6/21 and M. Boyce could have this homebred race ready and in live hands with J. Felix aboard.

#1 STRANGER’S CHURCH comes into this race with plenty of works and was scheduled to debut in that 6/23 common race with the slight set back (vet) from that race and put in two published works since, the half mile from the gate on 6/28 and blowout last weekend (7/6) to get race ready here. 

#1 MIDTERM is overdue for some racing luck in terms of trip and field and finds that here. HE comes into this race with consistent form and less than ideal handling in the two recent starts. There has been intent for the turf from a solid turf trainer in P. Miller and MIDTERM appears versatile to handle the surface switch.

A belated return is in play for #2 LAST MINUTE and going back to the debut late last season (a common race with MIDTERM) LAST MINUTE did not appear to handle the KICKBACK in addition to taking contact from both sides at the start. Prior to the race last year he was entered a couple of times at PID (synth) and with the move to the turf today that dirt in the face KICKBACK should not be an excuse here. Like the debut, he was fancied and projects similar here with the connections in play and the recent works showing many “bullets” in the return series.

#4 HONORANDPRINCIPLE has been forced to practice patience waiting for the turf. They were entered to debut on the grass back in March at the FG scratched when the races came off and forced to scratch the following week unable to draw in off the AE. Since showing up on this circuit they have been entered twice both races coming off the grass and should get the belated start and surface here and looks live for the connections that have had the bulk of the success here on the grass.

In terms of #7 LA PERFECT BEE he was entered for the grass last weekend and a late scratch (along with #8 NAGY AND DA BEARS) as the big storm hit and forced the late races off the turf. With that said, this sprint distance could be a second choice and something to consider. Class is the knock for both #3 PONCHO ATTACK and #5 UNCLE CHUCKLE stepping up from prior races in MCL company. 

Looking at the Plot, #1 SALLY’S SURPRISE has enough early speed to keep pace with both #5 FAST N HAPPY and #6 DEVIL with the edge on finishing ability (Square) of that trio. In addition, SALLY’S SURPRISE lacks “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines a common theme with the other runners in this field, which includes #4 SECRET OPERATION and #7 SURPRISE ME AGAIN two that should be looking to come on late for the minors off the pace from Quad II/IV. 

#1 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD finds upside as she makes her second start back off the layoff. In terms of par, today’s event is lower and comparable to where she has been able to record a “B” effort in the past. She will also find a change in race dynamic while the “Snowflake” is in play the SpeedRate moves up to a higher 73 to assist the Quad IV Square late run.

In terms of the early speed, #2 MOON RAY is a flow upgrade from the two most recent starts and has been given a freshening along with the class relief on the circuit switch to suggest further intent by the connections. With that said, it will not be an uncontested lead with the M. Boyce runners as #4 CAT ATTACK will be on the attack and #3 JOURNEYIST (as well as #7 WANDA STRONG) also with natural, tactical speed (QI/III) to keep the early fractions (SpeedRate) honest.

#5 TIMELESS ROSE also fits today’s race shape looking at the Plot and a similar dynamic to the race conditions back on 3/17 when she picked up the TAM win. Some price compensation is required though could be there off the 4^th place run last out. TIMELESS ROSE finished in front of #6 AMAZON QUEEN in that 7/14 HS Indy common race though both earning a similar C+ OptixGRADE to suggest there is not much between them on the day and into this race.

#8 COTTON CANDY ANNIE earned a follow before the break going back to the 5/12 race projecting to IMPROVE. She has limited turf starts to hold against her too much, though without question moves up with this race moved to the main track without being an obvious MTO entrant. 

#1 KING ANTHONY stood out over the field making his return to the races clearing the MSW level last month. He required every bit of that class edge as mentally he lost his race before it began, WASTED a lot of energy out on the track and to the create of all involved was able to get the win. Off that effort and race under his belt (and better composure) he could take the step forward in this spot against winner, though must be monitored on the track.

In terms of the C. Block pair, #5 GOOD APPLE has been more progressive than #7 MOONLIGHT ROAD and the edge from the common race last month. GOOD APPLE returns with a rider change today and the move with intent looking to shake things up and look for a cleaner break, something that has eluded him with the TROUBLE_S in the two recent races and played a role in the outcome while still pairing B- OptixGRADES.

The class test comes back into play for #8 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR though he is not out of it at this level, extended sprint distance and slightly softer race par than the event two weeks ago and in line with the 5/26 par, a winning race while in claiming company. He had a look on that day off his competitive N2 allowance races and finding just enough class relief to get the win.

#3 VALIANT WEST recorded a strong of B- OptixGRADES at this level earlier in the meet to get a share while a longer shot on the win end though based on Standard Plot, find a trip stalking off #4 STRANGE ARRANGE – one that will again be class tested and looking at the Past 3 Runlines his form is on a decline both on GRADES and Figures, to balance with the Plot position.

Keying off the races at this level, #2 FAMILY TRADITION must step up off the C+ races this season and show he can improve number wise as well. Going back to last season he starting to move forward on figures and still would require a boost from those top numbers last year, though those figures are not off the lower end of par and his class edge has the edge over STRANGE ARRANGE and #6 HOPPING JOHN runners that have recorded higher figures, though recorded those numbers in a lower par and class than today’s event. 

Keying off the Plot and race shape as the early “Sun” Contention is honest and paired with a higher 67 SpeedRate, something that is shown visually with more than half of the field positioned above the ParLine. That type of scenario should benefit the runners from off the pace, upgrading #1 KINGSBURY DREAM and #9 QUILTING PARTY as the two Q4 Squares.

Trip is noted for #4 GET N TIPSY one that was able to make a move from off the pace to get the win on 6/25 though part of that due to the early TROUBLE where she wanted to race closer to the pace and wheeling back for this start, does not find a class edge, if anything a slight rise and something to consider as she comes into this race off a new top (regression possible) on shorter rest and likely to be favored. 

The class edge shifts to #7 MY BROTHER MIKE one that takes the belated drop and key cutback in distance as the connections look for this belated maiden win. #6 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level and par back on 5/25 and has a look here on that metric alone. #5 KEYSER recorded a B- in that common race and going back in his career has recorded some of the higher figures and the rider change to R. Blanche suggests intent here and must be kept in the mix on value.  

#3 THE RIDGE should receive a lot of attention in this field making just his second start at the lower MCL level and possessing early speed. With that said, he must still step up and perhaps run a “faster” race than he has in the past given the complexion of the field and unable to be “lone speed” in this event sandwiched between #2 LUCKY PAL and #4 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD other front runners.

#1 SCHMOOZIN fits this condition perfectly and has been given a freshening for this spot and return to Hawthorne while also in for the tag. His form this season fits on par and has been racing at a higher par than many of the rivals he faces today have met this season to present a slight, subtle class edge.

#2 FLASHY RICHIE returns to a sprint for the first time this season and could be the right move with his current form and today’s race shape. Most of his limited sprint races were run elsewhere though he does hold two HAW sprints from back in early 2022, those races with a win and place finish.

#3 VIOLENT GIGI finds a slight rise in par today’ though coming into this race with solid form to compete. He recorded a BTL effort with TROUBLE back on 6/29 and a strong CLOSE three weeks ago, both races earning a B OptixGRADE – the edge over #4 MON AMI FUZZIE pairing B- OptixGRADES in those common races.

#6 BLAZEN ROAD is tougher to consider for the top spot though keying off the BTL effort back on 5/19 can be in the mix for a minor share. 

Was looking to see if an upset was possible but I just don't see it here as 5-EUCLID AVENUE looks to be far too tough on the drop. He has speed, looks to be unchallenged, and should make the top and never look back. 4-JUSTICEONEMORETIME could possibly contend late underneath at a price as he makes his first Hawthorne start. He looks to track the leader early and could run on late. 3-ARMAVIR has improved in his last couple as he comes off a short layoff into here. He looks to be a good fit for Ulloa in the saddle and just needs some pace to chase.

A tough field for leg two of the Big Sport series as a couple of new shooters look to contend. 2-I'M WIDE AWAKE comes in from a nice starter score at Churchill in his last as he has speed and will try to shake loose. The price will be short but that barn has had a solid year. If you dig a bit through the past performances, you will find that 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG defeated I'm Wide Awake at Oaklawn back in February. He loves this Hawthorne strip and could benefit if Philipsburg presses I'm Wide Awake early on. 4-RED LABEL ran a nice race in leg one of this series and is another that could benefit if the pace is contested upfront. He's been sharp in his two starts on the meet and figures to be a decent price in here.

Babies in the third as we will see which of these youngsters step up. Looking to the Rivelli firster on the outside as 7-RAVIN'S RANSOM has been working forwardly toward this spot. The recent gate drill was very solid and at the 4 1/2 furlong distance he should be quick enough to clear and never look back. 1-STRANGER'S CHURCH could pose the biggest threat to Ravin's Ransom but the inside draw may make things tough. He's another with some snappy gate drills and this barn always has theirs ready. If he can get away from the rail, there's the upset potential in here. 4-BOLD COMFORT had an eventful trip in his debut as he was pinballed at the start but recovered to run on late. With a clean break today he could get into the mix early and run on late.

Getting onto the turf is the key for 1-MIDTERM as he has been trying throughout the meet. Has has shown ability on the main track but with the potential to show speed from the inside, let's see if he can clear and wire this field on the lawn. 4-HONORANDPRINCIPLE is another that has been looking for turf as he gets to make his debut today. He gets Lasix for this start and has worked consistently toward this race. He draws well and may benefit from some pace to chase. 2-LAST MINUTE makes his second career start as he gets Lasix today off a string of bullet drills. He is likely to show speed as well which may or may not compromise both himself and Midterm in here.

A couple of Illinois-breds face open company in here as they look to be quite competitive in this spot. The first is 6-DEVIL as she comes off a pair of solid efforts in her last couple. She has speed and could potentially clear in here. If she can catch an early breather, she may be able to kick away late. 1-SALLY'S SUPRISE just missed in her last as she has run well over this Hawthorne strip. She makes her second start back off the layoff as the added sixteenth could help her chances. 7-SUPRISE ME AGAIN is the second state-bred runner in this spot as she broke her maiden against open company three weeks ago. She rallied late while at a price and may sneak away at a decent value once again,

A really solid field here as there's a couple with speed in this spot. One who should get a good stalking trip is 5-TIMELESS ROSE as she has been solid on the turf and at this distance. She carried her solid Tampa form over to a good race in Indy in her last. Let's see if she can run on late. 4-CAT ATTACK has speed as she will look to try to clear and wire this field. If she can shake loose of Moon Ray early there is the potential that she wires this field. 1-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD ran a nice race against stakes company in her last and finds things easier in here. She has been very good at Hawthorne throughout her career and has to hope the speed hooks up in here.

The 6 1/2 furlongs could be a blessing in disguise for 4-STRANGE ARRANGE as he has the potential to clear and race unchallenged early. He almost pulled off the upset at this distance two back and Emigh has been riding very well of late. 1-KING ANTHONY was solid in a maiden score last out as he stalked the pace and ran on late. He will likely rate in the second flight early in here as we will see how he handles stepping up to face winners. 5-GOOD APPLE has been solid on the meet as he has speed but has recently stalked the pace. He ran on late in his last and picks up Cohen in the saddle in here.

Back to the grass as the relief and second start of the meet should benefit 1-KINGSBURY DREAM. She came off the layoff to face stakes runners in her last and surely needed the race and she never fired over a course that was favoring speed. She should build off that start as she just needs some pace to close into in here. 4-GET N TIPSY was a nice winner in her last as she had to overcome some trouble for that victory. She is typically better when racing a bit closer to the pace as Burgos returns for the ride. 5-APRIL'S GEM has run consistent races at this level on the meet as she get's her best distance in here. She also has some tactical speed as she could get first run on the late closers.

Curious to see what the pace scenario is in here as numerous horses could get sent early. Hoping 4-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD chooses to stalk in this spot as he makes his third start for the new connections. He chase in his last behind a horse that was taking a big drop but did have some run late. This is an easier spot today as the five furlongs could suit his chances. 3-THE RIDGE has some speed as he ran a decent second over a wet fast track in his last. I expect he is sent away early and will just need to avoid a duel with Lucky Pal. 7-MY BROTHER MIKE takes the drop in class as he looks for the confidence boost. He has to hope for a pace duel ahead of him early and he should run on late.

Hard to get past 5-EUCLID AVENUE. I’ve never been much for big droppers but his drop makes sense. He was in too deep in the two races since breaking his maiden despite his great effort in his first start against winners. At this, the right level, he should be far more competitive. 6-CHARLIE’S BEACH is another meeting his easiest field ever. He owns pretty good sprint speed so it’s a bit strange that in all of his previous route races he hasn’t shown any speed at all. Maybe that will change today. He hasn’t done it yet but keep expecting 1-STOLICH to display better speed with the stretch out. Is coming off a good second at this level while sprinting. If he does get sent, he could be first or second all the way around.  

If 2-I’M WIDE AWAKE can emulate his effort in his last race at Churchill, he shouldn’t get beat. Of course, this race is filled with early speed so he might not be able to grab that clear lead he enjoyed in that last race. Still, I’m not sure any of the others in here are capable of running a :44 and change half. Guess we’ll see. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG might be able to challenge for the lead but think his best chance will come if he can let some of the others tackle top pick early while he patiently tracks the early pace. He’s been facing possibly tougher rivals than these. Should be a strong finisher. 5-PHILIPSBURG was just claimed by a barn with a 31%-win average with their first-time claims. He’s been the model of consistency with three wins, three seconds and two thirds in his eight career races. He’s taking on better here but he could be up to the challenge. 4-RED LABEL won starters in his last two starts. His speed figures suggest that he could be slower than some in here but he has to be considered after recent victories. 

Richard Ravin homebred 7-RAVIN’S RANSOM has popped some amazing workouts, especially for a 2yo. He races for the top barn whose babies and first times usually run well, at low odds, and he gets one of the top riders in the irons. 5-TAKEITAWAY is another homebred, this one by S D Brille LP, that has been training very well. Like top pick, he’s trained by a sharp barn that often wins with their first timers and he’s another that gets one of the top riders in his irons. 4-BOLD COMFORT finished 12 lengths back in his debut but the highly touted winner of that race drew clear by 10 and this colt finished third, less than two lengths back from second, while finishing well clear of the rest of the field. Experience helps. Figures.

2-LAST MINUTE went off as the heavy favorite in his lone race last year but failed to make an impact. Guess he had some growing to do. But this $475,000 purchase has been working bullets toward his first start of 2024. This time he’ll be racing on turf, the surface he was bred to love. Has a great chance to make amends. 1-MIDTERM should finally get to run on the lawn. He was entered for turf in his last two races but those races were both moved to the main track. This speedy runner has been fading after showing good early zip but that could change with the switch in surfaces. 3-PONCHO ATTACK will be flying late. He’s had two turf sprints and ran well in both, including a second, less than a length back, in last. Meets open company today but might want to include him in the vertical gimmicks. 

7-SUPRISE ME AGAIN is the most lightly raced member of this field. She showed nothing in her debut but Block-trained runners often need a race or two and she came through with flying colors in last, breaking her maiden going away. She’s meeting many that have been trying to get through this condition for a while. Obviously gives up experience edge but might have the most upside. 1-SALLY’S SURPRISE made a strong late bid in last, only to come up less than a length short. It’s possible that if that race had been at today’s distance, she would have passed them all. Maybe today. 6-DEVIL seems like the only legitimate speed in the race. Could try to steal this on the lead. 

4-CAT ATTACK is far from the only speed in this race but she could be the best. She had little chance in a dirt sprint in last but she’s stretching to her best distance on her preferred surface. She wired the fields the three times they stretched her out from sprints to routes. Might not look back. 1-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD needed last. This multiple stakes-placed runner faced an extremely tough stakes field in her 2024 debut. She’s going to be gunning for top pick late. 2-MOON RAY is worth a look. She’s racing without blinkers for the first time since arriving in the US. She’ll be making her first start for this barn and they win almost 30% of the time when runners come to them from other barns. 

1-KING ANTHONY lived up to heavy favoritism and broke his maiden in his first start of the meet. He raced in contention early, moved on the early speed late in the stretch, and finally drew away late. He’s meeting more experienced rivals in this spot but like the way he has improved with every subsequent sprint race. Can win right back. 4-STRANGE ARRANGE looks like the best of the speed. He tired in last while facing many of these rivals but his first two races for this barn were excellent. He has a better chance of getting an unchallenged lead today. Might take it all the way. The tactical speed of 5-GOOD APPLE should have him squarely in the hunt. He might not be quite as quick as Strange Arrange but he’ll be raging right behind that runner. He often finishes with good energy Would be no surprise.

4-GET N TIPSY came from far back to win last in Indiana, meeting rivals quite similar to this group. She also finished second the last time she raced here last July. This race should feature an honest pace, something required for her to unleash her best move. Can repeat. 1-KINGSBURY DREAM was outgunned in her first start of the year but that race should have set her up perfectly for this one. She’s dropping to fac her easiest field in a long time. Although she won only one of her 20 turf races, she has often been competitive despite meeting tougher rivals. Like top pick she’ll do her best running late. They could be matching strides in the stretch. 5-APRIL’S GEM is generally competitive. She has an affinity for races at this distance. Seven of her eight victories have been scored at what is considered is considered a long sprint, even though it is around two turns. Finished third in a similar contest at this distance last time out but we know she’s capable of doing even better. 

7-MY BROTHER MIKE drops and turns back in distance. He has probably been better in longer races so far in his career but he has never been in this easy. Expecting him to race near the back of the pack early and try to mount a challenge once they turn for home. 4-SENDMEDOWNTHEROAD could display the most sustained speed. Others in here are quicker but they quickly run out of gas. He’s still lightly raced compared to most of the rest. Might have some upside. 5-KEYSER looks like the only one in here capable of making a late move and the pace will certainly set up for a horse with that ability even though the distance is short.

8-LUCKY SHOT just finished second in a “key” race. He was favored in that event but fought his rider for much of the race and expended too much energy doing so. Both the winner and third-place finisher came back to win their next starts. This one drops a notch. Can make amends. 1-SCHMOOZIN won his first two starts of the meet, beating better both times, but got claimed from his last local race and sent downstate, He didn’t do much good there but he’s back here and dropping in class. We know he likes the track. Might wake up.5-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER pulled things together in last and won at a nice price. He’s meeting a bit tougher in this spot but should once again get a great pace to run against. Comes flying late. 

Race 7:  4 - 1 - 5

Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,5 / 1,4,5 / 3,4,7 / 1,3,9  ($40.50)

“Flagfall to that’s all”....that should be the plan for #4 Strange Arrange (7-2). According to Timeform US Early Pace figures, he’s completely loose on the lead. Now, there are concerns he can’t get the 6 ½ furlongs, because he’s given it up late several times. But if he does get to the lead comfortably and can slow it down even a little bit, he’ll be tough to catch…and won’t be favored either.

Race 8:  4 - 5 - 1

I don’t like to pick so many morning-line favorites as I am today, but ML-maker Jim Miller is spot on, and #4 Get N Tipsy (9-5) just seems like a likely winner. The Haran-trained 7yo comes in from Indiana in very fine form, and she’s consistently good at this level. Jockey Burgos knows this horse and keeps the mount, so that’s a positive. 

Race 9:  3 - 4 - 7

#3 The Ridge (4-1) is not the most talented horse in Rivelli’s barn. But, he has plenty of speed and has been rested up a bit for this affair. Plus, he’s faced tougher than most of the field and has every right to improve today. He might need to sit a bit off of the horse just to his outside, but I like Cohen in the saddle. He’ll break well and make some decisions…doesn’t have to have the lead today. 

Race 10:  1 - 3 - 9 

When a trainer is 3/62 on the meet, I’m a bit leery. However, Trainer Childers lures excellent jockey David Cohen to ride his horse, #1 Schmoozin (5-1), coming in from downstate. He’s the class of the field and should be able to sit a decent trip just off the speed. His speed figures are simply better than most today on a consistent basis.