Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 LEGENDARY PHANTOM could just present the slight edge with his early speed and current form returning to Hawthorne. This will be his third start back off the layoff and should be sitting a peak effort – the lack of conditioning from the 81-day break might have played a role in the NO_FINISH under similar conditions back in June and assisted #9 BLACK RUSSIAN from off the pace.

#7 MILLARD A MAVERICK comes into this race recording some of the higher figures and a competitive race in for a  similar tag earlier this month at HS Indy. With that said, his longer bodied physicality does not suit the shorter distance and noted run from off the pace as the projected favorite.

#4 SHTARKER presents upside for the connections in just a second career start with significant changes from the debut. He was in a tougher spot first out giving up experience to a seasoned group of mostly older horses, mostly. In addition, the WEATHER, racing in the light rain while GREEN and in hand (NO_PUSH) after the SLOG can suggest he has more to show.  That race did produce one next out winner with Regimental (7^th on 6/8) coming back to win a MCL $20k on 7/7 and one we will see step up to take on winners in Race 6.

Number wise there is not much between #1 NAGY AND DA BEARS and #2 PONCHO ATTACK two runners that find closer to a lateral change in class and come in with form though overall on the lighter side as a contender though capable for minor awards. 

#1 TONYS MORNING LINE appears a sharp claim and placed where he can compete. He will look to be the third next out winner from the 6/15 event and with a BTL effort making a WIDE MOVE against the dynamic (Slow early and late race shape) that would be no shock here.  Today’s race shape is worth keeping in mind with the Snowflake/15 SpeedRate though looking at Surface/Distance Plot TONYS MORNING LINE should be able to rate close to the first flight (Q1) runners from the rail with first run.

Of the first flight, willing to get price creative with #6 HATCHET CREEK one that has some early speed in this second start back off the long layoff and with the move to an outer post. He should be fit wheeling back in three weeks for this race and based on prior form under similar conditions is placed according to his abilities. 

As an individual #5 IZZY’S MONSTER is the horse to beat. Looking at the Past 3 Runlines her figures stand out (Green) over the others in the field and sits ABOVE+ on both Speed and Plot with Class also in the Above category. While she does have the favorable Plot position for today’s course and distance, race shape wise she will be tested with #3 MO SMOKING in this field with a similar Q1 Square form/trip in this race. #1 NO NANNETTE NO does not hold any overall edge though comes into this race with current form and figures moving upward in those Past 3 Runlines. Her Q4 Square position still must work a trip from off the pace, though does benefit from the Sun Contention and the edge over the other “Circles” in the field. 

Both #3 BABE IN THE WOODS and #7 SAFECRACKER SUE fit as logical, however they have come up short on the win end under similar conditions without excuse to at the least looking for price open the door as they project to be the race favorites.

#5 REALISTIC GOAL turned in a BTL effort in a competitive race back on 5/12 and since has been exposed (DROP) on class to make the change an upgrade here. The two June starts had less than ideal, subtle trips playing a role in the outcome and both events with a much higher race par than today. #2 MACHIVA is less established though in the two starts has shown progression race-to-race and makes some changes in this spot where another move forward has her high in the contender mix.

#1 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY is a legitimate longshot in this race though given a mention as there are some factors in play. Going back earlier in the season, she presented TURF physically and since moving to the turd in the recent starts caught the far outside post against a higher race par (and against race dynamic) on 5/12 and was the only filly against males in the two June starts. 

It is very tough to ignore the Plot and the position for #3 GO STORMIN GIRL that should give her every pace advantage and no excuse on that front in today’s race shape. She does have some recent “Red” Keywords that could create some vulnerabilities outside of pace to weigh in the handicapping/value (betting) process.

#5 RAINY MOUNTAIN requires a massive form reversal in this spot, though perhaps is the right time and place. Returning in 2024 she has been overmatched and the DROP was projected for her this season. She finds the drop and return to V. Santiago, a rider that has been aboard with considerable success in her career and a key change today.

#4 MAYSTART had a live look at this level three weeks ago and ran a huge race recording a B OptixGRADE making a CLOSE following a SLOG into a Very Slow early pace. While she did post a “winning” race for the level, the runstyle from off the pace in today’s race shape requires some price compensation that must be upgraded/downgraded on race day.

#2 MYSTIC STORM was a tough one to take off the layoff at a short number when she returned last month. She showed some run in spots (B-) and the timing (even an upgrade with a front wraps removal) create some interest today. #6 PALACE MAGIC shows up with consistent figures and better timing for this race than the one-week turnaround into the 6/30 event. The recent WIDE trips should keep up her conditioning and perhaps some intent with the rider change as well. 

#6 DAPPER DUDE should hold value off the recent running lines and is live in this spot. The connections had been looking for the turf though landing in tougher spots with the allowance races earlier in the meet. In addition to class, the Very Slow early/late dynamic played against DAPPER DUDE in those races to note with the figures and finishing positions. He was upgraded on the drop back on 6/30, though compromised with the WIDE trip from well off the pace (rider change today) and still made a strong CLOSE in a race that had minimal change in running order behind the perfect trip 31-1 longshot winner, Hay Moon.

Mojica will take back over on #1 EVEN THE WIND and preferred of the C. Block pair. EVEN THE WIND comes into this race with current form and consistent figures that should translate in this spot to compete and the connections returning with claiming tag for the first time in a longtime. That is in contrast to stablemate #7 COOL AND COLLECTED one that has been at this level this season and to be fair has shown run in spots (WIDE MOVE) though not doing enough to endorse with the C+ OptixGRADES for the top spot and the Q4 Circle does not inspire the confidence to turn it around in this field. 

This is a tricky race and from a pace perspective looking at the Plot. The Snowflake Contention it met with few runners in Quad I, though paired with an honest 29 SpeedRate shown visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine and to the left of the y-axis. A horse like #2 COACH JIMI D does not “Plot well” however is upgraded from the recent race and primarily the 6/9 event turning in a nice effort staying on as the BOS though a Fast early and Very Fast late race shape. He has that edge over the other front runners (E/EP) that exit race shapes with Slow-Average dynamics.

The opposite, off-the-pace scenario, sets up #7 DANVILLE from off the pace. Overall his GRADES and Figures sit on the lower end as a Contender from the recent races and the events at this level, where he requires a lot in his favor to win and price compensation to play. 

Trainer G. Forster has a solid record with turf sprinters and catches the eye with #1 FROM SCRATCH showing up on this circuit. “SCRATCH” has been a common theme for this runner going back to KEE in April unable to participate in a MSW turf sprint and similar dropping out of a MSW event on the TURF when the races were moved to the main track last week at CNL. As far as the long start at CD, she could be upgraded with Ellen Jay returning to win (MSW) last week and the Fast early Very Fast late race shape of the CD main track June race.

#10 INVENTING ANNA comes into this race with current form and off a BTL (B) effort with adversity (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE, CLOSE, GALLOP+) in the trip impacting the outcome with the 4^th place result. That B OptixGRADE alone stands out over the other “experienced” seasoned runners in this field and not a standalone effort from INVENTING ANNA with the consistent figures in her races to date.

#6 HA HA GLORIA made a positive PRERACE+ appearance coming back off the layoff in May. She has not been seen since that race, however some of that out of her control as the connections scratched from two CBY events with the move off-the-turf to the main track. She presents perhaps a little more upside in just the second start of the season than #7 ERNESTINA, the more established of the two and both share similar speed figures.

#5 THUNDERSTRIKE is softer on numbers though one that had a look heading into the recent and third career start for I. Mason as one that had excuses in trips and tough post positions in her first two starts. She set a wicked fast pace for the distance and over this main track back on 7/11, a pace that was seconds faster than any horse under similar distances from any class level that afternoon.

#9 PERFECT MANHATTAN is a bit of a wild card and one that could get more attention from the connections than the races to date. As far as those races she presented TURF last summer and a SPRINTER finally finding the grass before the layoff closing out 2023. 

#9 SECRET HONOR should move up naturally with the change in class and the connections dropping down to place him where he can compete and look for that belated win. Rival #8 REMEMBER THE FEAR finds a similar drop though could find greater public interest for the connections and overall preference siding with SECRET HONOR of the two. Trip will be key for SECRET HONOR with the tendency to break a step slow (SLOG) however, with the outside post he should still find a “trip” with the “Fire” Contention and the honest pace with #1 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD and #7 MALIBU BRAD at the least looking to set the pace right from the jump.

#4 NAP LOVER should find a similar trip with a favorable Plot position/shape and tough to ignore following the BTL effort on debut and competitive effort (B-) exiting the 6/30 common race. Trip is not as ideal though not out of the question for #6 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX one that could be kept in the mix at a minimal 8-1 value play. Value is also required with #3 PIRATE MARMALADE another that has shown the ability to compete on figures/GRADES at this level, though does make his run from off the pace (Q4 Square) and with that pattern of GATE/SLOG/TROUBLE_S issues as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

#7 SHE’S WANDAFUL makes her second start back off the layoff and upgraded as she appeared to need the race (PREP) and should benefit from the start just three weeks ago when not asked for her best last though sure to gain fitness. Trainer P. Miller is a solid trainer overall though has had a lot of success this meet on the grass as well as in the race day finale this season.

#9 COVENANT LADY shows up to make a belated Hawthorne return and with the circuit switch the big class drop. This will be her first start in straight claiming company, though with just one win in the past two seasons, the move appears to be the right one placing her where she can compete for the top spot even if that does mean they lose her in the process.

#8 CHROME ATTACK looked as if her layoff return in April was a PREP, to wait for the TURF though did not start again until common race last month. She was able to benefit from a ground SAVED trip with the race FLOW though did show a MOVE and on her best day fits on par at this claiming level and record on this turf course.

Both #12 BALI BABY and #13 LIPLINER will requires some racing luck to draw in off the AE though fit this race and should be kept on the radar as both BALI BABY and LIPLINER turned in a BTL efforts under today’s conditions in the 6/30 common race – too tough to dismiss here.  

With hopes of getting back on the turf, a bust Sunday with five turf races carded. Gave the nod to 7-MILLARD A MAVERICK as he comes in from Indiana for this start. He ran a nice race on the grass in his last as he overcame a lot of trouble and almost was a winner. The outside draw is no concern as he figures to settle and roll in the lane. 5-LEGENDARY PHANTOM has tactical speed as he ran well over this course two back. His last was just an even effort but he gets Felix in the saddle, who has ridden this course very well. 9-BLACK RUSSIAN ran really well at a huge price on the turf two back. He is another that should benefit from a contested pace upfront as he figures to rally in the lane.

I was scared off of Tonys Morning Line in here as he ran a decent race last out but immediately drops off the claim. I'll stay away and see if he beats me. Gave the nod to 4-WILDWOOD MINISTRY, who also drops, but not as much as the rail runner. He has tactical speed and the connections may be hopeful that he grabs a win without being claimed as he was recently a scratch from a spot where he looked to be competitive. 2-HURTS SO BAD has speed but will have to try to outkick a couple of others to the top. He has posted improved efforts in his last couple for a barn that has heated up in recent weeks.

It appears that they will be hard pressed to beat 5-IZZY'S MONSTER in here as she has been impressive in all four starts on the meet. She inherited the lead in a race with no pace last out but things should be much different here as there are multiple horses that could look to contend early. The only thing that can beat her here is if he chooses to challenge the others early. 1-NO NANNETTE NO has to hope for that contested pace as she figures to sit back early and rally in the lane. Her race in April puts her in the mix and she will be a price. 4-THINK BLUE is a new shooter in here as she stretches out after recent sprints in St. Louis. I don't expect her to contend for the early lead but I also don't expect that she will be too far off the pace either.

A pretty wide open affair as there are few that have been consistent. Lightly raced 2-MACHIVA is bred to run all day and posted an improved effort behind a daylight winner in her last. She moves to the turf here and should get some pace to close into. 3-BABE IN THE WOODS should be on or near the lead as she ran well two back but chased a tired in her last. Regardless, both figures put her at the top of this field as she should take her share of action. 7-SAFECRACKER SUE also has tactical speed as she chased but just ran evenly in the lane in her last couple. She should be in a similar position early in here and let's see if she shows any finish late.

Have to think 3-GO STORMIN GIRL gets the right trip and contends the entire way as she loves this track and finds a field with little early pace. She made the top in her last but was caught late. In here she should be on the lead again but it should be unchallenged. 4-MAYSTART did run down Go Stormin Girl last out and was almost victorious. She will be closing late again today but I'm not sure if she will have enough pace in front of her to chase. 2-MYSTIC STORM was the 8-5 favorite in the race with the top two selections last out and did make a move into the lane before flattening out. That was her first start off a bit of a layoff though so she may be able to show more in here.

Conditioned claimers on the grass with multiple runners in with a shot. 4-SHARP STICK gets the nod as he has tactical speed and returns to the grass after trying it once last summer. He should be forwardly placed in this spot and may get the jump as there's not much pace to challenge early. 1-EVEN THE WIND has run well on the turf, posting a good maiden score to open the meet. His last was decent and the class relief may be all he needs. 8-WE MISS ARLINGTON chased last out as Hay Moon ran a huge race in victory. With the move back to the turf here, along with the added distance, I expect he is on or near the lead and is a factor throughout.

This is a good allowance field that does look to provide a decent amount of early pace. With that pace setup, I'm looking to 7-DANVILLE as he gets back to the main track today. He likes this Hawthorne strip and figures to rate and run on in the lane. 2-COACH JIMI D stalked the pace in his last and battled to the lane. He has been sharp since stretching out and comes in with a pair of nice works leading into here. 5-GLUCKSTADT gets back on the dirt as he ran a decent race at this level two back. He's another that will benefit from some pace to chase in here and could be worth a look at a price.

A good field of maiden turf sprinters as a couple of new shooters look to get into the mix. One that did run here was 6-HA HA GLORIA (IRE) as she ran a good second as the favorite off the layoff in May. She went up to Minnesota with the Rosin stable to train there but returns to get this turf sprint try. 10-INVENTING ANNA comes in from Indiana off a strong race in her last. That was her first start of the year. She did get a very fast pace to chase in that spot so we will see what she gets in front of her in here. 12-MISCHIEF LILY turns back in distance as she has been knocking on the door for her maiden score. She also makes her second start of the year and figures to be a factor if she is able to draw in.

With the rail draw and speed, I'm hopeful 1-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD has enough speed to clear and wire this field. He has improved with every start and looks to be knocking on the door in here. 8-REMEMBER THE FEAR drops down as he looks to get a confidence boost today. His two Churchill starts posted figures that makes him competitive as he should show more in here. 4-NAP LOVER ran well in his debut as he settled and ran on late. He is going to take some action in here as he should come running on late.

There doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed in this race and 5-LEGENDARY PHANTOM could provide all of it. He finished third here a couple weeks ago in a similar field but was coming off a brief layoff. Might be able to put away any challengers and hold the late runners safe. 2-PONCHO ATTACK, 7-MILLARD A MAVERICK and 9=BLACK RUSSIAN are all likely to be flying late. 4-SHTARKER drops, turns back in distance and moves to the lawn. He was also gelded since his lone start. He was terrible in his debut but is always eligible to improve.

4-WILDWOOD MINISTRY hasn’t raced poorly since getting claimed by these connections but he has simply been in over his head. Drops to the lowest level of his career. Switches to the leading rider. Guessing he’ll be far tougher at this level. 1-TONY’S MORNING LINE drops off the claim That’s usually not a sign of confidence, especially since the winning purse wouldn’t offer much of a profit if he got claimed again, but this barn has been very successful this meet by placing horses where they can win. 3-CODETOWIN finished third as the favorite in his lone local start but he hasn’t raced since late May and he’s had only one slow and short work since. Have to respect the barn but not in love with this runner.

3-BABE IN THE WOODS gets the nod. She finished second at this level two races back and pressed the pace for much of last before tiring late. Few others in here have shown much on the lawn. She gets the benefit of the doubt. 5-REALISTIC GOAL takes a needed drop. So far, she hasn’t shown a lot but she has always been in against better rivals. 7-SAFECRACKER SUE finished fourth in her two turf starts. She was well behind top choice the first time they met but well ahead of her in last. Switches from one hot rider to another. Figures prominently. 2-MACHIVA is bred to love the lawn. Might improve with the switch in surfaces.

Not really sure what to do with 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN. She has always faced much better. She’s been in terrible form this year but she is dropping many levels to take on this group. No guarantees but have to think she’ll improve greatly against this easier company. I never get 3-GO STORMIN GIRL right. I almost always pick against her but she keeps making me regret it. She looks like the best speed in this race. Could easily wire the field. 2-MYSTIC STORM might have moved a little too soon in last. She did flatten out late. However, that was her first race in over three months. Could be fitter after that trip.

1-EVEN THE WIND drops from allowance company. It took him nine races to break his maiden and when he didn’t show enough versus allowance company, his savvy connections dropped him to a spot where he can win. He’s not a lock in this race but the others are going to really have to step up their game to beat him. 8-WE MISS ARLINGTON did finish second in his lone grass race. He is bred for the surface and could improve with experience but think he’ll have to improve considerably to beat top pick. 4-SHARP STICK didn’t run poorly in his lone turf start, a maiden special event in June of 2023. He finished fifth but was only two lengths back at the finish. His recent dirt form hasn’t been bad. Doesn’t seem likely to be a match for top choice but he could turn out to be the best of the rest.

2-COACH JIMMY D has had two local starts and ran well in both. He graduated by seven in his local debut and finished second in last after fighting for the lead much of the way. Even though his highest speed figure was generated in last when he was fighting for the lead, possibly his best race was when he came from off the pace for his maiden win. With all the other speed in here the ability to close could be the winning advantage. 3-CONI’S COUP could be the best of the speed. He wired good claimers in his last start. He’s likely to try the same scenario today. 5-GLUCKSTADT should appreciate the move back to the main track. He just didn’t seem to handle the turf in last despite some grass success in the past. He’s at his best when stalking the pace and should be able to sit right behind the early leaders today.

Think we’ll see surprising speed from 1-FROM SCRATCH. She was trounced in her lone start, at Churchill, but she got checked in the race and never recovered. There are shipping her in here to try her on turf. She gets the top local rider for this trip. Can surprise. 6-HA HA GLORIA looks like the one to beat. However, she’s had only three races; one in 2022, one in 2023, and one so far this year. She did finish second in her race here but she that race was in May and she has been based at Canterbury with their beautiful turf course. But she has finished second in all of her races. Hard to gauge. 12-MISCHIEF LILY turns back to a sprint. Not sure she can even get going at this short distance since she has no speed and starts to run very late in her routes. But her barn wins with 335 of their turnback runners and she is in good form. Could be tough if she draws in. 

4-NAP LOVER was well beaten in his lone start but he was facing a runner that had been threatening against better for a long time. Runners from his barn tend to need a race to top off their conditioning. With that start under his best, he figures to be far tougher in this one. 1-SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD could be the best of the speed. However, he hasn’t exhibited a lot of staying power. Have little doubt he’ll be on or right off the lead quickly but not sure how long he’ll stay there. 7-MALIBU BRAD couldn’t handle better company in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he could be a longer lasting forward factor with the drop back to the right level.

9-COVENANT LADY ships in from Indiana and apparently brings her rider with her. She’s been racing against some pretty tough rivals and her speed figures are among the best in here. Figures to be a major player.7-SHE’S WANDAFUL needed last. Like many of her rivals in here she enjoys good early speed but it’s her ability to race right off the pace and then finish with something left that makes her dangerous in here. 3-MADELYN BELLE is two for two at the distance. Like top pick she has the ability to rate as well as to go for the lead. 

Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2

Pick4: 2,3,5,7 / 6,7,10 / 1,4 / 1,3,9 - $36

My top pick #7 Danville (4-1) has been a mainstay in this division for a long time in the Chicagoland area, and with good reason too. He is still running very competitive Beyers in the mid-to-high seventies, and if he runs his best with the pace in front of him, he could crack the top spot for the sixth time at Hawthorne in his career.

Race 8: 6 - 7 - 10

In a race filled with horses that have distance and surface question marks, I ended up on #6 Ha Ha Gloria (5-2), making her second start of the layoff for Coty Rosin. She has only 3 career starts as a 5yo. This is usually a reason to stay away from horses, but Ha Ha Gloria seems to have the right numbers and trip in this race, and with a lot of others in which I’m not confident, she should have everything she needs to fire.

Race 9: 1 - 4 - 7

In a maiden race where it doesn’t seem like a lot of these horses like to pass anyone, I am sticking with the horse that looks to get a decent lead off the rip, the #1 Sendemdowntheroad (7/2). Going through the field, there were many that I crossed off instantly, and this one should take them around, especially with the lack of pace pressure in this race compared to his last few. The only of those aforementioned horses that has shown ability to rate is #4 Nap Lover, so be on the lookout for her if the pace does quicken up.

Race 10: 3 - 9 - 1

In the last, this finally seems like a race where there will be a blitz for the lead early on by at least two if not three horses. While the morning line favorite #3 Madelyn Belle (5/2) seems to be one of those involved early, I think that last race showed a new side to her that I really liked. Both times she’s raced on the turf in her career, she has shown the ability to rate just off the speed and get first run on a lot of closers. Also, with the only true closer in this race #9 Covenant Lady who I like in 2nd, she looks to have an edge on this field and 5/2 is a good enough price for her to beat these.