Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 LEGENDARY PHANTOM could just present the slight edge with his early speed and current form returning to Hawthorne. This will be his third start back off the layoff and should be sitting a peak effort – the lack of conditioning from the 81-day break might have played a role in the NO_FINISH under similar conditions back in June and assisted #9 BLACK RUSSIAN from off the pace.

#7 MILLARD A MAVERICK comes into this race recording some of the higher figures and a competitive race in for a  similar tag earlier this month at HS Indy. With that said, his longer bodied physicality does not suit the shorter distance and noted run from off the pace as the projected favorite.

#4 SHTARKER presents upside for the connections in just a second career start with significant changes from the debut. He was in a tougher spot first out giving up experience to a seasoned group of mostly older horses, mostly. In addition, the WEATHER, racing in the light rain while GREEN and in hand (NO_PUSH) after the SLOG can suggest he has more to show.  That race did produce one next out winner with Regimental (7^th on 6/8) coming back to win a MCL $20k on 7/7 and one we will see step up to take on winners in Race 6.

Number wise there is not much between #1 NAGY AND DA BEARS and #2 PONCHO ATTACK two runners that find closer to a lateral change in class and come in with form though overall on the lighter side as a contender though capable for minor awards. 

#1 TONYS MORNING LINE appears a sharp claim and placed where he can compete. He will look to be the third next out winner from the 6/15 event and with a BTL effort making a WIDE MOVE against the dynamic (Slow early and late race shape) that would be no shock here.  Today’s race shape is worth keeping in mind with the Snowflake/15 SpeedRate though looking at Surface/Distance Plot TONYS MORNING LINE should be able to rate close to the first flight (Q1) runners from the rail with first run.

Of the first flight, willing to get price creative with #6 HATCHET CREEK one that has some early speed in this second start back off the long layoff and with the move to an outer post. He should be fit wheeling back in three weeks for this race and based on prior form under similar conditions is placed according to his abilities. 

As an individual #5 IZZY’S MONSTER is the horse to beat. Looking at the Past 3 Runlines her figures stand out (Green) over the others in the field and sits ABOVE+ on both Speed and Plot with Class also in the Above category. While she does have the favorable Plot position for today’s course and distance, race shape wise she will be tested with #3 MO SMOKING in this field with a similar Q1 Square form/trip in this race. #1 NO NANNETTE NO does not hold any overall edge though comes into this race with current form and figures moving upward in those Past 3 Runlines. Her Q4 Square position still must work a trip from off the pace, though does benefit from the Sun Contention and the edge over the other “Circles” in the field. 

Both #3 BABE IN THE WOODS and #7 SAFECRACKER SUE fit as logical, however they have come up short on the win end under similar conditions without excuse to at the least looking for price open the door as they project to be the race favorites.

#5 REALISTIC GOAL turned in a BTL effort in a competitive race back on 5/12 and since has been exposed (DROP) on class to make the change an upgrade here. The two June starts had less than ideal, subtle trips playing a role in the outcome and both events with a much higher race par than today. #2 MACHIVA is less established though in the two starts has shown progression race-to-race and makes some changes in this spot where another move forward has her high in the contender mix.

#1 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY is a legitimate longshot in this race though given a mention as there are some factors in play. Going back earlier in the season, she presented TURF physically and since moving to the turd in the recent starts caught the far outside post against a higher race par (and against race dynamic) on 5/12 and was the only filly against males in the two June starts. 

It is very tough to ignore the Plot and the position for #3 GO STORMIN GIRL that should give her every pace advantage and no excuse on that front in today’s race shape. She does have some recent “Red” Keywords that could create some vulnerabilities outside of pace to weigh in the handicapping/value (betting) process.

#5 RAINY MOUNTAIN requires a massive form reversal in this spot, though perhaps is the right time and place. Returning in 2024 she has been overmatched and the DROP was projected for her this season. She finds the drop and return to V. Santiago, a rider that has been aboard with considerable success in her career and a key change today.

#4 MAYSTART had a live look at this level three weeks ago and ran a huge race recording a B OptixGRADE making a CLOSE following a SLOG into a Very Slow early pace. While she did post a “winning” race for the level, the runstyle from off the pace in today’s race shape requires some price compensation that must be upgraded/downgraded on race day.

#2 MYSTIC STORM was a tough one to take off the layoff at a short number when she returned last month. She showed some run in spots (B-) and the timing (even an upgrade with a front wraps removal) create some interest today. #6 PALACE MAGIC shows up with consistent figures and better timing for this race than the one-week turnaround into the 6/30 event. The recent WIDE trips should keep up her conditioning and perhaps some intent with the rider change as well. 

#6 DAPPER DUDE should hold value off the recent running lines and is live in this spot. The connections had been looking for the turf though landing in tougher spots with the allowance races earlier in the meet. In addition to class, the Very Slow early/late dynamic played against DAPPER DUDE in those races to note with the figures and finishing positions. He was upgraded on the drop back on 6/30, though compromised with the WIDE trip from well off the pace (rider change today) and still made a strong CLOSE in a race that had minimal change in running order behind the perfect trip 31-1 longshot winner, Hay Moon.

Mojica will take back over on #1 EVEN THE WIND and preferred of the C. Block pair. EVEN THE WIND comes into this race with current form and consistent figures that should translate in this spot to compete and the connections returning with claiming tag for the first time in a longtime. That is in contrast to stablemate #7 COOL AND COLLECTED one that has been at this level this season and to be fair has shown run in spots (WIDE MOVE) though not doing enough to endorse with the C+ OptixGRADES for the top spot and the Q4 Circle does not inspire the confidence to turn it around in this field. 

This is a tricky race and from a pace perspective looking at the Plot. The Snowflake Contention it met with few runners in Quad I, though paired with an honest 29 SpeedRate shown visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine and to the left of the y-axis. A horse like #2 COACH JIMI D does not “Plot well” however is upgraded from the recent race and primarily the 6/9 event turning in a nice effort staying on as the BOS though a Fast early and Very Fast late race shape. He has that edge over the other front runners (E/EP) that exit race shapes with Slow-Average dynamics.

The opposite, off-the-pace scenario, sets up #7 DANVILLE from off the pace. Overall his GRADES and Figures sit on the lower end as a Contender from the recent races and the events at this level, where he requires a lot in his favor to win and price compensation to play. 

Trainer G. Forster has a solid record with turf sprinters and catches the eye with #1 FROM SCRATCH showing up on this circuit. “SCRATCH” has been a common theme for this runner going back to KEE in April unable to participate in a MSW turf sprint and similar dropping out of a MSW event on the TURF when the races were moved to the main track last week at CNL. As far as the long start at CD, she could be upgraded with Ellen Jay returning to win (MSW) last week and the Fast early Very Fast late race shape of the CD main track June race.

#10 INVENTING ANNA comes into this race with current form and off a BTL (B) effort with adversity (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE, CLOSE, GALLOP+) in the trip impacting the outcome with the 4^th place result. That B OptixGRADE alone stands out over the other “experienced” seasoned runners in this field and not a standalone effort from INVENTING ANNA with the consistent figures in her races to date.

#6 HA HA GLORIA made a positive PRERACE+ appearance coming back off the layoff in May. She has not been seen since that race, however some of that out of her control as the connections scratched from two CBY events with the move off-the-turf to the main track. She presents perhaps a little more upside in just the second start of the season than #7 ERNESTINA, the more established of the two and both share similar speed figures.

#5 THUNDERSTRIKE is softer on numbers though one that had a look heading into the recent and third career start for I. Mason as one that had excuses in trips and tough post positions in her first two starts. She set a wicked fast pace for the distance and over this main track back on 7/11, a pace that was seconds faster than any horse under similar distances from any class level that afternoon.

#9 PERFECT MANHATTAN is a bit of a wild card and one that could get more attention from the connections than the races to date. As far as those races she presented TURF last summer and a SPRINTER finally finding the grass before the layoff closing out 2023. 

#9 SECRET HONOR should move up naturally with the change in class and the connections dropping down to place him where he can compete and look for that belated win. Rival #8 REMEMBER THE FEAR finds a similar drop though could find greater public interest for the connections and overall preference siding with SECRET HONOR of the two. Trip will be key for SECRET HONOR with the tendency to break a step slow (SLOG) however, with the outside post he should still find a “trip” with the “Fire” Contention and the honest pace with #1 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD and #7 MALIBU BRAD at the least looking to set the pace right from the jump.

#4 NAP LOVER should find a similar trip with a favorable Plot position/shape and tough to ignore following the BTL effort on debut and competitive effort (B-) exiting the 6/30 common race. Trip is not as ideal though not out of the question for #6 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX one that could be kept in the mix at a minimal 8-1 value play. Value is also required with #3 PIRATE MARMALADE another that has shown the ability to compete on figures/GRADES at this level, though does make his run from off the pace (Q4 Square) and with that pattern of GATE/SLOG/TROUBLE_S issues as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

#7 SHE’S WANDAFUL makes her second start back off the layoff and upgraded as she appeared to need the race (PREP) and should benefit from the start just three weeks ago when not asked for her best last though sure to gain fitness. Trainer P. Miller is a solid trainer overall though has had a lot of success this meet on the grass as well as in the race day finale this season.

#9 COVENANT LADY shows up to make a belated Hawthorne return and with the circuit switch the big class drop. This will be her first start in straight claiming company, though with just one win in the past two seasons, the move appears to be the right one placing her where she can compete for the top spot even if that does mean they lose her in the process.

#8 CHROME ATTACK looked as if her layoff return in April was a PREP, to wait for the TURF though did not start again until common race last month. She was able to benefit from a ground SAVED trip with the race FLOW though did show a MOVE and on her best day fits on par at this claiming level and record on this turf course.

Both #12 BALI BABY and #13 LIPLINER will requires some racing luck to draw in off the AE though fit this race and should be kept on the radar as both BALI BABY and LIPLINER turned in a BTL efforts under today’s conditions in the 6/30 common race – too tough to dismiss here.