Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 HIGHWOOD projects to be the speed of the speed (Q1 Square) and flow upgrade from the 6/2 PRM even staying on as the BOS through a Fast early pace. The return to HAW is logical along with the drop placing her where she can compete as she has not shown much improvement this season.

Picking up the chase from off the pace (Q4 Square) are both the other class droppers #3 RESOLUTION and #5 QUIERO DINERO, runners that should benefit from the change though still must work a trip with their runstyle. Figure wise they do not hold much, if any edge over HIGHWOOD and even some of the back dirt numbers for #6 FREEDOM ATTACK one that should be the higher of that trio. 

J. Loveberry could be sitting on the early “1” double with #1 STERLING LUCK one that moves up on this circuit with her current form and figures. While she will make the move to MSW from the higher $50k MCL event last out at CD, today’s par is lower. She follows a similar “second off” pattern keying off the FG series and show finish back in January.

#4 ANOINTED OF GOD turned in a winning effort (B) for the level last out at HS Indy though had to work HARD given the trip to just get run down late. There would be greater concern here if she were again wheeling back on shorter rest, though the 49-days since should provide adequate recovery. Her ability to show early speed should give her the jump on STERLING LUCK and has that early pace advantage over #3 ELODINE, one that set a Very Slow early and late pace unable to hold the lead here last month. 

Loveberry continue to look live showing up on FTS starter #2 I O FEDRO for C. Block. The connections have been patient as this one has been entered four times this season scratched with the most recent races taken off the turf. A couple of those races were in at this $20k MCL level and does appear to be where they think he fits.

#4 PRINCE IS MY BOY has plenty of stamina and proven router that could just land him in the right field and timing with the live barn. He will make the belated move back to the turf, the surface of his second career start in the summer of 2023 at CBY and turned in a solid show finish that day and since has improved his numbers that could easily transfer to the turf.

In terms of speed figures, both #3 MY BROTHER MIKE and #5 ALL ABOUT TONIGHT fit strongly with today’s par and tough to knock on that front. With that said, both runners have shown distance limitations and have themselves to overcome back at this route distance – the two turns also unproven for #1 RED RIZZLER though does have the “new” face factor going for him on that front and can be given a flow-upgrade from the 7/6 event racing up close to a Very Fast early pace. The early pace should be honest with both #6 SKYLANE and #7 LONE RETURN in this field and drawn outside have little choice but to put themselves in the race from the jump for their best chance to compete. 

#4 A REAL HERO finds some hidden class relief out of the recent open $5k claiming events at FAN and clear class relief from the races earlier in the cycle from Turfway along with back class starting out her career in Southern California. As far as the recent races she has started to show hesitancy (SLOG) out of the gate though on 6/29 made a MOVE and strong GALLOP+ to finish in a blanket for show to suggest she still has interest. The barn change was made after that race and could be intent with J. Watkins showing up back at HAW (other race was a OC $20k here April 2023 for M. Reavis) with main rider A. Centeno aboard. The race shape is a tricky one with the “Fire” Contention, four of the seven sharing the E/EP runstyle though paired with the lower SpeedRate. That early “bunched” scenario can assist a closer to work a trip and would certainly be in their favor from the expected (Q4 Square) off-the-pace trip. 

Depending on the weather this race could move to the main track and assist the lone MTO runner, #8 TU CHA finding a lower par in this second start of the meet, the type of DROP she does require to compete. #6 CLASSIC PERFORMER is not entered MTO though comes into this race with current dirt form to fit on par. She is interesting moving back to the turf for G. Forster for just the second time since the claim, giving her a look on either surface. The similar surface versatility comes into play for #1 DOROTHY CROWFOOT one that has held her form returning from the layoff looking for that first win. The rider change could signal intent and off her runstyle (pace), current form/figures is logical on that front as well. 

Looking at the Plot, #7 LUCY JANE appears to hold a strong pace advantage as a Quad I Square. This will be her second start off the layoff and going back to the CD 6/2 race was fractious in the GATE and chased a Fast early pace before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and was NO_PUSH after. Overall, she has some concerns with the pattern of layoff lines, though shows up second off the layoff and with a top rider in A. Centeno aboard to assist on confidence level and given the recent running lines and finishing positions should bring price compensation.

A lot of attention should land with the two other class droppers, #5 LADY HELENA (where J. Loveberry shows up) and #6 I’M BOX OFFICE given the connections along with the change that should move them up naturally. Those factors also create appeal as the “new faces” where as #1 SEQUAYA, #3 HOLY IMAGE and #4 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS all have been running at this level and tougher to endorse for the top spot (without plenty of price compensation) though all capable for an underneath share. 

Regardless of surface tough to ignore #3 SIVAKO upgraded with the return to Hawthorne and class relief from the higher N3 last out at CD, a tougher spot (DROP) for him to compete for the top spot. #4 ANOTHER MYSTERY moves up with the scratch of their stablemate - and as projected probably will race with this race staying on the turf. He showed his class with the Bucks Boy stakes win last month and overall consistency to hold his own in this open company allowance group. 

Looking at the Plot, the Fire Contention paired with the higher 67 SpeedRate assists the Quad IV Square position of ANOTHER MYSTERY.

The other Squares; #5 LEADING THE CHARGE should benefit from the start returning second-off the long layoff and less than ideal TACTIC- trip last month. He is in strong hands with J. Loveberry and could establish first run on ANOTHER MYSTERY. In terms of #1 VOTE NO he has numbers and class that fit on par. The biggest question is distance, still unproven two turns, though his one route even, the Bourbon (G2) in the juvenile season was a fine enough third to give him another chance by the connections. 

#5 TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL looks spotted to win on the class DROP. She shows up in this spot with consistent form (both turf/dirt) just requiring the right level to get the win and should find that here. She is in good hands with trainer W. Catalano on the path to a new milestone and J. Loveberry aboard.

The presence of TIZ A COUNTRY GIRL in this race should add pace (QI/III Square) without being a natural “frontrunner” putting pressure on those Quad I/II runners in this race shape, including #7 EMITYAAZ. That scenario should assist the Quad IV Squares: #6 SIGNATURE STREET another that should benefit from the class relief and upgraded off the recent “trips” though does still require some racing luck overall; #9 MAIDEN ROCK finds a lateral change in class though returning from a BTL effort last out at CBY and showed run (B-/C+) here this season with the improving figures shown in the Past 3 Runlines. 

The analysis starts with #8 EASY FAST one that is likely to be favored for the connections and on the class drop despite returning from the long layoff here. Physically he presents as a sprinter and one with some class concerns making this drop not as much of a concern though it does come with the long layoff, and projected shorter odds. He must also deal with the other dropper #2 EXTRA HALO shipping in for A. Granitz and one that has the edge in recency. With that said, he has just the one race that fits on par the maiden win last November at CD (with the track profile) that makes him a player.

As a creative, price alternative, #7 ICE AXE should present some value here off the recent running lines and finishing positions. He holds established form from his maiden days with figures on par. His form has held in the two starts against winners (claimed out of his maiden win in May) and upgraded with the subtle changes from the 6/23 race. Timing wise they raced on shorter rest between starts and also against a higher $25k claiming group and race par. In addition, were asked to race closer to the pace than their ideal, something that was not favorable on the day though should allow for fitness as they show up in sprint.

#1 ALIBI IKE perhaps a bit more “obvious” with the recent in-the-money finishes as he makes the change in class looking for the right level to win here. He is a major player and intent in this spot and should be able to sit off the main speed in EXTRA HALO and EASY FAST looking for first run (Quad I Square) and the class edge over #3 MINING CAMP with a similar projected trip.