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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat July 27th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Ellis Park Race 1

Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 TOTAL HEART earned a follow (IMPROVE) off the EX - EXCUSE in her BTL debut last month over the HS Indy Turf. While she does find the step up in circuit (and requires some price compensation) the move could also signal some confidence with that change. 

Ellis Park Race 3

Post Time 12:49 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 BORROWED TIME can IMPROVE off their debut three weeks ago. He raced GREEN and broke SLOG making a MOVE and showing run through adversity and should be a useful learning experience. The outside post here could also be a positive change from the inside draw first out. 

Woodbine Race 1

Post Time 12:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 MT LOGAN will give up recency returning from the 253 day layoff though returns right where they left off last season and with competitive races/figures at this level and sprint distance to fit here as a contender. 

As far as value, ML favorite #2 COLONEL MUSTARD fits though does not hold an edge over #4 PRINCE OF THIEVES (fits on par, upgraded form cycle) with the two returning here. Second choice on the ML #7 GEM QUALITY dos not hold any edge in this field and could struggle to hit the board, where as #5 HIGHLAND LIFE a consistent player, fits this race and connection with the smart move remaining at the claiming level. 

Woodbine Race 10

Post Time 4:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SCORED brings back buried WO form and could be overlooked in this event off the layoff. #14 MOMUNNYFOR RO moves up naturally with the return to MCL company and the ONE_TURN distance.