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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Mon August 5th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Ellis Park Race 1

Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Trainer E. Foster has two runners in this field and while #1 TAMARA'S WAY finds a subtle change in class for the second start this meet, she also finds a significant distance change and should be one of many in here to keep up an honest pace. That honest pace could assist stablemate #2 MISSY BEE one that turned in a competitive (B-) effort at this level, course and distance last month with some subtle TROUBLE- making a move behind the eventual chalk winner - a B- effort in line with common rival #5 BYZANTINE and should be the longer of the two today. 

Ellis Park Race 2

Post Time 12:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A tough race to try and get real creative with the logical runners in this field - #7 GRAND PRAIRIE GAL has the benefit of recency, form around two turns with progressive figures in each start. She will reunite with C. Torres the rider from back on 4/28 at OP, a race with projected IMPROVE given the TROUBLE_S and middle MOVE over the poor track conditions sprinting off the layoff. 

Ellis Park Race 4

Post Time 1:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 CAWKAB has been a common type since their debut late in 2022 and noted with the change in class today to run for the claiming tag as less of a concerning move. The barn change is notable to create some value in this case and upgraded from the return last month at HS Indy, the TROUBLE_S taking significant contact from both sides at the break forced back early and the top three finished together at the wire. 

Ellis Park Race 6

Post Time 2:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Sitting on the AE, #14 SHOGUN earned a follow off the BTL debut last month and going out for live connections here. They will requires some racing luck to compete though one to tab and follow. 

Ellis Park Race 8

Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 QUIETLY caught the eye and dominant (B+) on debut willing over the CD turf back in May they earned a follow from the allowance last month, a less than ideal trip (TACTIC-) making an early SAME MOVE and in a race shape and race par higher than today and should move up with the race under her belt and overall added experience. 

Ellis Park Race 9

Post Time 3:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
#1 COMMITTE OF ONE is an overall fit (ABOVE) in this race and returning to the turf a surface distance of success as a juvenile and with some subtle trips on the surface in the two starts this year. #11 FINSTER makes a very belated return to the races and first start against winners since their strong B+ debut win last year. He caught the eye overcoming adversity drawing away and while there are hurdles in play with today's group this one can run and appears live here off the bench.