Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is the perfect race to start off the card. On paper there is just limited information going off trainer stats and published works and in this case there are many that check the “capable” box on that front. With this race kicking off the card we will be able to get a look at the wagering and more importantly the horses in the paddock to make further assessments on play. In terms of those coming out of the sale: #1 NORMANDY NEMAN reaching out while still growing and light weight to work 10.3 at the June sale. #2 ROBERT’S MOON slappy action longer bodied okay for turf and more ground worked 10.3 in a drive very late lead change. 

There are enough runners in this field that prefer to race on or near the lead for #2 ROAR OF SILENCE to make a closing run just as she did breaking her maiden back in June. The connections have forced to be patient waiting through the weather scratching from a similar spot last month when the races were moved to the main track. The race shape should also suit #3 MS KS DYNASTY one that was very live back on 5/12 and took a tough photo beat, though also caught a softer race par that day and has struggled at this level since though at the right number becomes playable.

#1 TRIBEST broke her maiden at the lower level back in June though holds plenty of starts in higher MCL company with pars similar today and held her own in those events. While a win could be a reach she should be in the mix with today’s group. That could also carry to #4 CATHOLIC SUE in just a second start over the turf. She did not have an opportunity to race on the grass at Oaklawn and arguably did not have much of a chance with the trip last month at Lone Star and the connections giving her a “rebate” here. 

There was an idea with #1 NIFF on the drop last week and while the outcome was less than ideal, wheeling right back once again could suggest intent and some upside off the trip. She was restless in the GATE and ended up chasing X_WIDE (should avoid here from the rail) before losing ground. The route distance on the dirt was a change though tough to hold that against her given the ground loss and would expect them to perhaps try to make the lead here.

The “safer” route: #3 MAIDEN ROCK tuned in a BTL effort with a less than ideal TACTIC- and SLOG/TROUBLE_S back on 6/30 at CBY and rallied with a strong CLOSE into a Very Slow early pace here under similar conditions last month.

#4 SIGNATURE STREET also found the class drop last month and projected a bit more on 7/25 though also had a WIDE trip that day and back numbers that on return make her a main player. #6 SUMMER AT THE SPA comes into this race on the upswing of an every other pattern and should be sitting on a top effort. With that said, she requires as much price compensation as any and could get attention from the connections alone. 

#4 TU CHA appears a standout in this field. She hold a class and figure edge in this event and upside making her second start of the meet. While she returns under similar conditions from the 6/22 race, the much, much higher race par that day moves her up naturally as well as the preferred timing as she ran in that June event off a new top with the 5/8 win at HS Indy with REGRESS projected. 

In this race, #5 MADELYN BELLE will get a lot of public attention likely favored on the board and to close out the multi-race sequences. While capable there are others in here also capable and capable of springing an upset.

#6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR has sneaky strong form over this turf sprint course going back to the two starts last year as well as the 5^th place effort sitting on top of the pp’s – a sneaky good CLOSE and GALLOP+ into a Very Slow early space and should be overlooked off the running line and finishing position. #7 RACEDAY ATTIRE finds sneaky class relief to run here back in for a tag out of higher par starter allowance races this form cycle. She has just the limited turf experience, though handled the grass in the lone start last season in higher OC $40k company earning on of the faster figures in this field for that effort.

In terms of the V. Childers runners: #4 CHROME ATTACK moves up on the Plot though on current form much improve as the Surface/Distance Plot is rating some of the races last year and without question the races from last summer make her a player. Current form sides with #2 LIPLINER; she turned in a BTL effort under similar conditions back on 6/30 and could rebound in this spot with a better draw coming off a WIDE trip three weeks ago. 

#7 CAPTAIN’S FLAG is upgraded as a “new face” with the change in class and returning to the Hawthorne main track. His effort here back on 7/6 fits on par and should hold fitness after setting the pace in a massive downpour (WEATHER) over the turf just over a week ago. #6 ILLEGAL ICE also finds a class change to upgrade and while his form/figures are not as strong some upside could be projected from the races last year as a juvenile especially as they make their second start off the layoff and drop back to MCL company with the rider change to A. Santos.

With the runners holding experience at this level, #4 MALIBU BRAD has been one of the more consistent types and should hold his own once again here and with early speed to the outside of #3 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD has the preference of the pair. #1 KEYSER requires some racing luck and price compensation, though has held his own this year and the change in post and added ground with the STRETCH from the 5f last month is an upgrade today. 

In terms of #8 GRACELEADSUSHOME she turned in a B effort with the place finish last month under similar N1 allowance conditions, though caught a softer par that day and while she is playable back at 5-1, the odds projection should be shorter here. That should create value on others.

#5 STAR WISHER could be the sneakiest runner in this field. She return from the layoff and string of minor finishes last fall. Those races all consistent number wise and competitive throughout the sophomore campaign. That extends back to her debut win, a win first out around two turns and followed up that race with a show finish in N1 allowance company at KEE closing out her juvenile season. While she will give up recency off the bench, it is not without trying to get a race as she has been entered seven! times this year including twice this month scratching with those races being taken off the turf (HS Indy) and appears she is race ready and well-intended shipping  in for the connections.

#4 DIAMONDS  JOY came up short under similar conditions this season, though has subtle excuses in those races. She had legit TRAFFIC TROUBLE back on 6/9 and found herself on COVER making a MOVE X_FLOW on 7/6. The connections wheeled right back and stretched out staying on the main track (physically presenting TURF) on 7/18 staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early and late pace in the Play finish. #9 RIETTA also had a “trip” last month coming off the slight freshening on 7/25. With TRAFFIC TROUBLE in running, the handling was not ideal and notable with the rider change wheeling right back today to suggest further intent by M. Boyce. 

Value should sit with #7 VALIANT WEST off the recent running lines and finishing position. The timing (28 days v. 7 days) between starts and subtle changes (distance, lower par) appear positive and with intention here for the connections. #1 COOL QUARTET takes a lateral move showing up here in allowance company from the KY races this season and second off the B. Vanden Berg claim. While he does require a top effort, he fits with current form and conditioning in this spot for the live connections.

#8 EASY FAST moved up at this level coming back from the layoff last month and holds a look returning here under similar conditions. Despite the layoff, DiVito appeared to have them race ready and made a WIDE middle MOVE after a poor TROUBLE_S the race with a slight DELAY given two late gate scratches. #4 ICE AXE was impacted from the scratches in terms of race shape. He made a SAVED MOVE improving position though against the race shape – Slow early/late – the complexion of today’s event with the Sun Contention/13 SpeedRate.

The early pace dynamic is noted as a hurdle for #7 WE MISS ARLINGTON one that should find pace pressure with the others in this field including the two inside runners primarily #2 EXTRA HALO. 

Expected favorite #3 SHARP STICK is logical in here and should have no excuses with today’s field back under similar conditions. With that said, he was 9-1 at this level just three weeks ago and sat a favorable FREE SAVED trip doing their best to hold place and might need to show a little more to get the win here and the number will be much shorter today.

#7 REGIMENTAL is not as consistent number wise though on his best day has number that stack up in line with SHARP STICK. His turf form fits and should be overlooked off the recent turf races both the 6/8 and 7/21 with WIDE trips, a tough trip over this course. #8 T LAW is the worth getting creative with and should hold value with the change in surface. He will make a TURF debut though from a physical standpoint looks the part and should have no issues with the change and as a lightly raced 4yo even move up.  

The value case can be made for #1 PRINCE IS MY BOY with the C. Rosin barn sending out live runners and this one showing progression here this season. As far as turf he should at the least hold his current form and there was intent for the grass going back to his debut taken off the turn and second start a competitive show finish over the CBY turf.