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Thu August 15th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:10 PM CST
This race starts with #2 LUCY JANE one that fits as
an individual at this level, though does hold some question marks with the
layoff lines though could be taken as a positive the connection did return for
$30k off the 421-day layoff back in June at CD and waiting for this spot after
a scratch on 7/25 that would have had her in for the lower $5k claiming tag.
LUCY JANE brings in early speed which could make things tougher
on fellow pacesetting rivals #3 PEGGY’S WAY and #6 PROBLEMATICA, however should
assist the stalking style for #5 WRITTEN CONSENT. She will return to the
main track and sprint distance following an “every other” pattern and back at a
level where she looks intended for success. J. Felix takes over and appears intent
with that change as well. Trip should also assist #4 QUIERO DINERO
as she returns under similar conditions from the 7/25 common race. On the day
she lost her race (WASTED) before it starts and at the gate with the
SLOG/TROUBLE_S before moving up for show with the race FLOW.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Projected favorite #4 SMOOTH JUSTICE is in the
right spot to pair wins coming off a dominant effort here just two weeks ago. She
showed early speed making a RUSH to the lead avoiding any type of “trip” behind
her and noted as she is not a “need the lead” type. Her naturally early speed
should keep #1 COOKIN ROSES honest along with #6 SUPORB (no value) up front.
The trip for SMOOTH JUSTICE should be similar to #5
PALACE MAGIC one that showed up with positive intent opening up as the
favorite on 7/21 and turned in a game effort with the WIDE DUEL trip and 4th
place effort with the B- OptixGRADE giving her the edge over others exiting a
similar conditioned albeit $5k claiming event.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:06 PM CST
More than the potential for a surface switch as there are
many in here with versatility is the complexion of the field and expected race
shape. Most of the runners in this field have been consistent over any surface
this season, though still could come down to which runners stay in this race.
As it sits right now the early pace should be honest especially with the
returning #7 EMPIRE BUILDER one that appears live and even looking for a
“main track” given their race history and local record with C. Emigh aboard. If
they are live they should take some money and expected in this case though
should still hold some value as an alternative to runners with form this season
including #4 CADET CORPS one that is less enticing at a shorter number wheeling
right back in two weeks off a PERFECT trip in a four horse field.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:34 PM CST
#2 RACARINO appears well intended second off the
layoff and returning in this spot for the claiming tag (protected last out)
with O. Mojica aboard. He has enough tactical speed to be effective in today’s
race shape and class edge with the bulk of his races here against much tougher
throughout his career and in fairness has yet to run a “bad” race over this
Hawthorne main track.
#5 PADDY’S HOUSE had a look under similar
conditions earlier this month and appears positive intent with the connections
wheeling right back in here. His effort was a bit one paced (PLODDY) though
perhaps due to the race shape (Very Slow early/late) and one that requires some
pace to run at. Given the complexion of this field – Sun Contention/Low
SpeedRate – he might not have the ideal pace scenario here; something that is
not impossible to overcome though does require the right number at the same
time. #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also wheels back from that 8/4 common
race and looked to need the race off the 36-day freshening and should hold his
form here and compete though requires his best to win.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:02 PM CST
While there is just the lone MTO in #9 LIKE A SALTSHAKER
this is a field capable on the main track and many perhaps even fine with that
surface switch. The change for many coming off dirt races could be the distance
as 5.5f is a change from 6f and key in terms of pace/trip and could be the main
hurdle for #4 SWIFT AS I AM returning from the layoff at the shorter distance. #2
I’M WIDE AWAKE handled the 5.5f distance here in his local debut last month
over an off-track and the better of LIKE A SALTSHAKER when the two met back in
June at CD.
#5 COMISKEY PARK should be overlooked in this field
as one of the more established, older racehorses and coming off a 5th
place finish in his most recent start. He has some sneaky main track form at
the shorter sprint distance and some intent with the connections running here with
that buried form and L. Colon aboard.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Looking to step outside the box, a creative case to be made
for #1 FLASHY RICHIE. While his figures this season (and overall if
being honest) sit on the lower end and less “flashy” compared to others this
season, he can at times pop with a big race and record a number that makes him
a contender. As far as his form this season, he turned in a B effort, a winning
race for the level coming off the layoff opening weekend and follows a similar
form cycle pattern into this race. After the 3/24 effort, he took two starts
before coming back with another strong effort making a WIDE CLOSE in the 5/26
show finish. That same pattern with the two starts (especially the sprint last
month) should have him set up for a top effort today.
#4 TWO COOKIE RULE ran too good to lose back
on 7/18 and perhaps that race played a role coming up short as the favorite
wheeling back two weeks later for the 8/1 event. The timing is noted as they
again are right back in two weeks and will be required to hold their form here and
again at a shorter number. Stablemate #5 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR also wheeling back
from that common race though a change in timing from the two that could see improvement
from that event earlier this month. His presence in this race along with #3 MR.
FROST should contest the early pace and keep #7 PALHACO honest as he will be
required to work a trip in this field with the outside post.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
#1 FROM SCRATCH might scratch as the connections have
been looking for turf going back before her June debut at CD (productive race)
and moved up on the grass here last month. On the day she NO_FINISH though
showed legit early speed PRESSED before fading and should hold fitness second
off the 43-day freshening.
The grass and a contentious pace could be key for #2
CROSSANNA one that would be a standout with this race around two-turns
though must bring her class edge with the distance cutback and keying off a
similar type trip to the first two starts, an off the pace run.
While #6 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is not a “MTO” that must be
the intent here as she has been entered MTO a few times this season including the
FROM SCRATCH race back on 7/21. She looks well-intended with a move to the main
track and based on the early weather reports, she could be in luck.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:26 PM CST
#1 UNIFIED WEEKEND should rebound here and step up in
this second start of the cycle from the 8/1 return. That was his first race
back since the 6/23 win and coming out on the track two weeks ago he WASTED a
lot of energy prerace and carried into a less than ideal TACTIC- from D. Cohen giving
up crucial position at a key point of running and in my opinion was cost a
better finishing position on the day.
There are other subtle changes returning here such as the
pace complexion – the Sun Contention/29 SpeedRate – could be a hurdle for
projected favorite, #4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS especially with the distance
change going 8.5f for today’s race. Looking at the Plot, UNIFIED WEEKEND should
stalk right off that first flight and secure first run on #7 NOT VERY
GENTLE and perhaps at a big number #6 ZARMAE can suck up for a minor
share.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 5:54 PM CST
A competitive finale to close out the card with this full
field and many suited to today’s conditions.
With this race on the turf: #6 I O FEDRO is a massive
upgrade; the connections have been looking for an MCL on the turf all season
long and they wheel right back for this race with conditioning (GALLOP+) from
the MSW just last week. #9 GIANNO has the edge on seasoning and
competitive races at this level worthy of a look on the grass along with their main
track form upgraded in MCL company.
#2 RICKY’S BEST is the value in this field and should
hold double digit odds (pre scratch) in this group playable on either surface.
He was given a pass for his debut late in 2022 as a juvenile with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S
and NO_PUSH followed by the layoff. Returning this year he has improved with
each start and in competitive events gaining fitness along with a subtle flow-upgrade
from 7/18. The change in class suggests intent and while similar could be
stated for #3 DAKOTA INVADER the number projects to be shorter
with the May recorded figure along with the connections and J. Loveberry
aboard.
Those two present as “new faces” first in for the tag and
therefore more upside than runners in this field that have come up short under
similar conditions. That includes #5 BLACK RUSSIAN along with the outside two
returning from the 7/25 common race and given the order of finish and race
shape #10 SKYLANE is preferred over #11 ALL ABOUT TONITE.
Thu August 15th, 2024 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Thu August 15th, 2024 |
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Howard's Late Pick 4
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 6
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6,7 / 2,3,7 / 1,4,7 / 2,3,6,9 ($54)
The name might remind you of your youth, but #4 Two Cookie Rule (5-2) is a very honest sort, if not spectacular. Last time, he got pushed out and lost ground at 70c to the dollar. Jockey Reyes stays on and I’m hoping he bounces back to his run two back when he received a 66 Beyer, which would trounce this field.
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 3
Maidens sprinting on the turf, a tough call for sure. The way #7 Deal’em and Weep (9-2) ran the first time, you’d think she’d be tough in here. I’m not sure about the big cutback in distance as that angle does not always work on the turf, but after a few good works including a bullet, I trust trainer Block in this situation. Just hoping she’s not too far back early.
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 7
#1 Unified Weekend (5-2) is a horse I’ve mentioned on these picks before this meet. The 4yo colt is very solid usually at the $5k level and now drops to the $4k conditioned level. The voided claim two back and non-effort last time is a concern, but there’s not much to beat today and a ground-saving trip is coming.
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 9
In a wide-open maiden $20k claimer where I don’t trust horses that have already run on turf, I’m going with fresh faces. #2 Ricky’s Best (10-1) has done little running against much tougher, but those races were on dirt. He’s bred for turf top and bottom…the dam won $66k on turf and the sire was a Grade 1 turf router who won over $1.5mil on the sod. Perhaps the grass under his hooves will wake him up at price…plus the drop down in class.
Thu August 15th, 2024 |
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