Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race starts with #2 LUCY JANE one that fits as an individual at this level, though does hold some question marks with the layoff lines though could be taken as a positive the connection did return for $30k off the 421-day layoff back in June at CD and waiting for this spot after a scratch on 7/25 that would have had her in for the lower $5k claiming tag.

LUCY JANE brings in early speed which could make things tougher on fellow pacesetting rivals #3 PEGGY’S WAY and #6 PROBLEMATICA, however should assist the stalking style for #5 WRITTEN CONSENT. She will return to the main track and sprint distance following an “every other” pattern and back at a level where she looks intended for success. J. Felix takes over and appears intent with that change as well. Trip should also assist #4 QUIERO DINERO as she returns under similar conditions from the 7/25 common race. On the day she lost her race (WASTED) before it starts and at the gate with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S before moving up for show with the race FLOW. 

Projected favorite #4 SMOOTH JUSTICE is in the right spot to pair wins coming off a dominant effort here just two weeks ago. She showed early speed making a RUSH to the lead avoiding any type of “trip” behind her and noted as she is not a “need the lead” type. Her naturally early speed should keep #1 COOKIN ROSES honest along with #6 SUPORB (no value)  up front.

The trip for SMOOTH JUSTICE should be similar to #5 PALACE MAGIC one that showed up with positive intent opening up as the favorite on 7/21 and turned in a game effort with the WIDE DUEL trip and 4^th place effort with the B- OptixGRADE giving her the edge over others exiting a similar conditioned albeit $5k claiming event. 

More than the potential for a surface switch as there are many in here with versatility is the complexion of the field and expected race shape. Most of the runners in this field have been consistent over any surface this season, though still could come down to which runners stay in this race. As it sits right now the early pace should be honest especially with the returning #7 EMPIRE BUILDER one that appears live and even looking for a “main track” given their race history and local record with C. Emigh aboard. If they are live they should take some money and expected in this case though should still hold some value as an alternative to runners with form this season including #4 CADET CORPS one that is less enticing at a shorter number wheeling right back in two weeks off a PERFECT trip in a four horse field. 

#2 RACARINO appears well intended second off the layoff and returning in this spot for the claiming tag (protected last out) with O. Mojica aboard. He has enough tactical speed to be effective in today’s race shape and class edge with the bulk of his races here against much tougher throughout his career and in fairness has yet to run a “bad” race over this Hawthorne main track.

#5 PADDY’S HOUSE had a look under similar conditions earlier this month and appears positive intent with the connections wheeling right back in here. His effort was a bit one paced (PLODDY) though perhaps due to the race shape (Very Slow early/late) and one that requires some pace to run at. Given the complexion of this field – Sun Contention/Low SpeedRate – he might not have the ideal pace scenario here; something that is not impossible to overcome though does require the right number at the same time. #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT also wheels back from that 8/4 common race and looked to need the race off the 36-day freshening and should hold his form here and compete though requires his best to win. 

While there is just the lone MTO in #9 LIKE A SALTSHAKER this is a field capable on the main track and many perhaps even fine with that surface switch. The change for many coming off dirt races could be the distance as 5.5f is a change from 6f and key in terms of pace/trip and could be the main hurdle for #4 SWIFT AS I AM returning from the layoff at the shorter distance. #2 I’M WIDE AWAKE handled the 5.5f distance here in his local debut last month over an off-track and the better of LIKE A SALTSHAKER when the two met back in June at CD.

#5 COMISKEY PARK should be overlooked in this field as one of the more established, older racehorses and coming off a 5^th place finish in his most recent start. He has some sneaky main track form at the shorter sprint distance and some intent with the connections running here with that buried form and L. Colon aboard. 

Looking to step outside the box, a creative case to be made for #1 FLASHY RICHIE. While his figures this season (and overall if being honest) sit on the lower end and less “flashy” compared to others this season, he can at times pop with a big race and record a number that makes him a contender. As far as his form this season, he turned in a B effort, a winning race for the level coming off the layoff opening weekend and follows a similar form cycle pattern into this race. After the 3/24 effort, he took two starts before coming back with another strong effort making a WIDE CLOSE in the 5/26 show finish. That same pattern with the two starts (especially the sprint last month) should have him set up for a top effort today.

#4 TWO COOKIE RULE ran too good to lose back on 7/18 and perhaps that race played a role coming up short as the favorite wheeling back two weeks later for the 8/1 event. The timing is noted as they again are right back in two weeks and will be required to hold their form here and again at a shorter number. Stablemate #5 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR also wheeling back from that common race though a change in timing from the two that could see improvement from that event earlier this month. His presence in this race along with #3 MR. FROST should contest the early pace and keep #7 PALHACO honest as he will be required to work a trip in this field with the outside post. 

#1 FROM SCRATCH might scratch as the connections have been looking for turf going back before her June debut at CD (productive race) and moved up on the grass here last month. On the day she NO_FINISH though showed legit early speed PRESSED before fading and should hold fitness second off the 43-day freshening.

The grass and a contentious pace could be key for #2 CROSSANNA one that would be a standout with this race around two-turns though must bring her class edge with the distance cutback and keying off a similar type trip to the first two starts, an off the pace run.

While #6 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is not a “MTO” that must be the intent here as she has been entered MTO a few times this season including the FROM SCRATCH race back on 7/21. She looks well-intended with a move to the main track and based on the early weather reports, she could be in luck. 

#1 UNIFIED WEEKEND should rebound here and step up in this second start of the cycle from the 8/1 return. That was his first race back since the 6/23 win and coming out on the track two weeks ago he WASTED a lot of energy prerace and carried into a less than ideal TACTIC- from D. Cohen giving up crucial position at a key point of running and in my opinion was cost a better finishing position on the day.

There are other subtle changes returning here such as the pace complexion – the Sun Contention/29 SpeedRate – could be a hurdle for projected favorite, #4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS especially with the distance change going 8.5f for today’s race. Looking at the Plot, UNIFIED WEEKEND should stalk right off that first flight and secure first run on #7 NOT VERY GENTLE and perhaps at a big number #6 ZARMAE can suck up for a minor share. 

A competitive finale to close out the card with this full field and many suited to today’s conditions.

With this race on the turf: #6 I O FEDRO is a massive upgrade; the connections have been looking for an MCL on the turf all season long and they wheel right back for this race with conditioning (GALLOP+) from the MSW just last week. #9 GIANNO has the edge on seasoning and competitive races at this level worthy of a look on the grass along with their main track form upgraded in MCL company.

#2 RICKY’S BEST is the value in this field and should hold double digit odds (pre scratch) in this group playable on either surface. He was given a pass for his debut late in 2022 as a juvenile with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH followed by the layoff. Returning this year he has improved with each start and in competitive events gaining fitness along with a subtle flow-upgrade from 7/18. The change in class suggests intent and while similar could be stated for #3 DAKOTA INVADER the number projects to be shorter with the May recorded figure along with the connections and J. Loveberry aboard.

Those two present as “new faces” first in for the tag and therefore more upside than runners in this field that have come up short under similar conditions. That includes #5 BLACK RUSSIAN along with the outside two returning from the 7/25 common race and given the order of finish and race shape #10 SKYLANE is preferred over #11 ALL ABOUT TONITE. 

3-PEGGY’S WAY could hold a slight edge. She might not be quite the quickest of these but she does seem to maintain her speed longer than most. Just graduated and was claimed from that race. Her new barn wins with 30% of their first-time claims. 6-PROBLEMATICA is probably the quickest of these and would be my selection at five and five and a half furlongs but she usually runs out of gas. However, she might build a commanding lead and hold on for the win. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT could be the best closer in the field. She’s dropping in class, turning back in distance, and moving from turf to dirt. Her best chance happens if the top pair lock up in a speed duel. 

7-A REAL HERO could get the trip. Winner of last, her first start after getting claimed by this barn, should find an ideal pace ahead of her with all the speed in this field. She could have dead aim late. 4-SMOOTH JUSTICE just dominated. Speedy mare has been sharp in all her races at this claiming level. She’s meeting a few others with competitive speed but if she runs the way she did in last, it might not matter. 6-SUPORB is one of those with competitive speed. She’s had three races since moving to this barn, winning one and finishing second in the other two. She figures to be a major player once again. 

Can’t help but think that the pace of this race will set up for a runner like 3-SILVER QUARTERS. He hasn’t had nearly the success on turf as some of his rivals but he does appear to be the best closer and there should be a hotly contested pace on the front end. Gets the top jock for this. Can fly by them all. 2-SAILING SOLO might be the best of the speed. He’s not going to be unchallenged but he has shown great tenacity under pressure. He has been victorious in four of his six turf races at this distance. Could outlast the rest of the early burners. Not in love with the chances of 4-CADET CORPS on turf but really like him if this race gets moves to the main track. H never raced on an off surface but his dirt speed figures tower over those of his rivals. 1-SOUL COAXING pulled off a mild upset in his lone local turf race. He stalked the pace set by Sailing Solo and managed to get by late. He’s likely to get the same kind of trip today. A repeat win is possible.

2-RACARINO needed last. He was making his first start since October. He owns enough speed to stay close and still finish with good energy. The fact that he gets the top jock in this spot could enhance his chances. 1-RIVZONAROLL has speed, the rail and he drops in class. He failed to show much when trying the turf in last but, at this level on the main track, he might lead throughout. 6-RISKY BOY was overmatched in last couple and it showed but he has been highly competitive when meeting rivals such as these. Can wake up in a big way with the class drop.

Love the “never won on turf” condition. It kind of levels the playing field. Obviously, some in here have fared better on the lawn but you would have to think that 4-SWIFT AS I AM holds the advantage. He might not have won on grass but he’s had some big-time efforts in stakes races. His turf “figs” are considerably higher than those of his rivals. He should be the one to beat. It is supposed to rain a lot on Wednesday so it’s possible that this race will be moved to the main track. If that happens 9-LIKE A SALTSHAKER deserves a long second look. He’s entered for main track only and he has been terrific on our “main” track, winning three of five and finishing second in the other two on the local dirt. There is speed aplenty in this race and it’s possible that there will be at least three vying for the lead. 2-I’M WIDE AWAKE, 3-CONGRATS ON FIFTY and 7-ARTHURIAN could be duking it out on the front end.

7-PALHACO never won here but he did finish in the money in four of his six local starts. Tactical speed allows him to go for the lead or to sit right behind it. 4-TWO COOKIE RULE finished second in his last two starts. This mile 70 route seems to be his best distance. He should be a major player again today. 6-JIM AND JIM made a nice middle move in last but couldn’t sustain it. However, it might have signaled that he’s rounding into form`. Could be poised to pull off a minor upset.

With a lot of rain forecast it’s hard to figure who will stay in this race if it comes off turf. 2-CROSSANNA is the pick on the lawn. She ran well in both her races, both turf routes, but her barn does great with runners turning back in distance. On the main track, I would think that 3-GEROGIA ON E’SMIND would be tough. She was claimed from last from one of the top barns in the country. She’s moving into maiden specials for this but also shipping from Churchill. Could lead throughout. 1-FROM SCRATCH looks like the best speed if his race stays on the weeds. She tired badly in her turf debut but think she can improve with experience.

4-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has been red hot at the $5k claiming level. The first time he raced here at this level he won by 12, though was DQ’d. Shipped to CD for his next start but wasn’t competitive. Since returning here, he has a win and a close second. Will be tough in this one. 7-NOT VERY GENTLE comes along late. He finished a few lengths behind top choice in last but he had a nightmare trip. There is enough speed in here to soften up top pick and that would favor this gelding. 1-UNIFIED WEEKEND is another likely to come on late. He hasn’t had a lot of luck lately when they send him but he usually fares well when they take him back off the pace. 

Interesting. It’s a turf contest without many turf runners. 9-GIANNO gets the nod. He was second in his lone turf route against maiden claimers. Might be good enough for this group. 8-LONE RETURN could be the best of the speed. Like top choice, he was second in his lone turf route and the winner of that race went on to capture his next race as well. 10-SKYLANE ran well enough in his lone turf race but it’s his main-track form that makes him especially dangerous if this race gets moved to the main track.

Race 6:  4 - 7 - 6

Late Pick 4 Ticket:  4,6,7 / 2,3,7 / 1,4,7 / 2,3,6,9   ($54)

The name might remind you of your youth, but #4 Two Cookie Rule (5-2) is a very honest sort, if not spectacular. Last time, he got pushed out and lost ground at 70c to the dollar. Jockey Reyes stays on and I’m hoping he bounces back to his run two back when he received a 66 Beyer, which would trounce this field. 

Race 7:  7 - 2 - 3

Maidens sprinting on the turf, a tough call for sure. The way #7 Deal’em and Weep (9-2) ran the first time, you’d think she’d be tough in here. I’m not sure about the big cutback in distance as that angle does not always work on the turf, but after a few good works including a bullet, I trust trainer Block in this situation. Just hoping she’s not too far back early.

Race 8:  1 - 4 - 7

#1 Unified Weekend (5-2) is a horse I’ve mentioned on these picks before this meet. The 4yo colt is very solid usually at the $5k level and now drops to the $4k conditioned level. The voided claim two back and non-effort last time is a concern, but there’s not much to beat today and a ground-saving trip is coming.

Race 9:  2 - 3 - 9

In a wide-open maiden $20k claimer where I don’t trust horses that have already run on turf, I’m going with fresh faces. #2 Ricky’s Best (10-1) has done little running against much tougher, but those races were on dirt. He’s bred for turf top and bottom…the dam won $66k on turf and the sire was a Grade 1 turf router who won over $1.5mil on the sod. Perhaps the grass under his hooves will wake him up at price…plus the drop down in class.