Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 CANO FOR THE WIN should be flying under the radar in this field. On debut he presented as a runner that will improve with the STRETCH out in distance and off the subtle trip taking KICKBACK after the SLOG. 

#1 EMERALD BAY also returns from the 7/28 common race and likely favored off the finishing position/figure, though off the visuals prefer their stablemate #4 AUTHENTIC SPIRIT another that will benefit from the STRETCH out here. 

#6 COURT SNORT will be asked to do a lot of running in a short period of time as she makes her third start this meet. Each race is tough to knock with the B OptixGRADE at this level on 7/28 and a BTLE show finish in stakes company just last week, though some concern if she is "over the top" wheeling back here.

#5 SUSHI STICKS is opposite coming in fresh off the layoff and first start this season. While she must improve on number to compete against this older, established group, she presents upside as a slightly raced sophomore with class. She broke her maiden dominantly on debut over this course last summer and held her own in open stakes company. She improved with the return to Cal-bred runner with the BTL in the Cal Cup Oaks in January and off the visuals can IMPROVE off the March allowance right before the layoff. 

#7 READY TO POUNCE could be ready to do just that for the new connections and up for the ship-and-win bonus. He has strong form at the extended sprint distance including the 6/29 effort making a strong CLOSE as part of a chain reaction (TROUBLE_S) of contact at the break. #8 REDLINE has the edge on recency and will take the class drop top run back in for a claiming tag for the first time this season. A shift to the outside along with the return to one-turn could also be the right changes with a barn that has had success this meet. 

#2 SPANISH CARA wheels back from a BTL effort in an EX - EXCUSE trip on 7/27. She was compromised with the SLOG, unprepared at the start forced to make a WIDE MOVE and late CLOSE impacting the outcome and a better finish and was still right there with #5 REHEARSAL. An upgrade can also be given to #3 BOTTLE ROCKET from that common race making a MOVE X_FLOW with the TACTIC- noted given a rider change here. 

4yo #4 INTERPLAY is worth a mention as the connections have forced to be patient after scratching with the races coming off the turf at SA last September. 

#7 GRAY FROST picks up where they left off almost one year to the date. The intent looks in play returning without a DROP and more was expected in that event though lost their race at the start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and unable to recover with the rider TACTIC- and TROUBLE. 

#5 REFOCUS looked they needed a race coming off the layoff last out and the connection showing up here right away is a live sign. While the change in class is noted to drop in for a tag, the timing and higher $50k is no "giveaway" and suggests intent over any concern. 

Of the horses with experience, Hawthorne's own #4 ROBERT'S MOON shows up to make a second start off a strong local debut back on 8/11. He had a subtle trip lacking ROOM along the inside behind the front running winner in a race with no real change in running order. From a physical standpoint he should handle and even move up on the turf with the surface switch in play today.

#7 ONTARIO HOLIDAY has held their form and speed figures this season that should move up on the change in class alone. As far as the recent finishing position, he turned in a B- effort back on 7/26 and projects to IMPROVE off the 8/11 outcome. 

#4 DEWOLF finds a positive change in class with the DROP wheeling back for this second start. He earned a solid figure in a higher par race first out though visually not on the level of the MSW competition. 

#11 FIGHTING IRISH turned in a B OptixGRADE with the BTL effort under similar conditions back in June and upgraded with the change returning here. That race is buried with the WIDE trip last month when stepped up in class sitting on top of the pp's and overall race record as one of the more "seasoned" runners in this field. 

#1 CATHOLIC JACKIE improved with the change in class last out and fits at this level off that effort as well as some sneaky form during her juvenile campaign including a strong GALLOP+ on debut over this innercourse.

#5 EMPIRE'S TREAT also a fit at this level and every other pattern showing the B- OptixGRADE in the two starts at this level back under the right conditions to compete. 

#10 PARADISE PERFECT is another seasoned runner though lightly raced on this circuit and improved with B OptixGRADE under similar conditions last out and likely to get attention for the connections and the place finish.  

PAT O'BRIEN STAKES (G2): 

Tough to knock #6 THE CHOSEN VRON as one of the top racehorses in recent years and commended for consistency and showing up and taking their shots, often rewarded. This race is tough especially coming back off the Bing Crosby (G1) win with the subtle change in distance, higher par along with field complexion/depth and timing. He is worth cheering for, though at a shorter number worth taking on. 

O'Neill comes into this race with a strong 1-2 pair: #4 RAGING TORRENT  brings legitimate early speed and should be "pedal to the metal" right from the jump looking to use their best asset to take this field gate-to-wire. A contentious early pace assists #3 HAPPY JACK one that was compromised X_FLOW in the Bing Crosby (G1) and still showed run making a WIDE MOVE and projects to improve second off, a progressive form cycle pattern for this individual. 

SEAWAY (G3): 

#9 NOM DE PLUME shows up fresh for her graded stakes debut and looks well-intended and placed to compete. She has been proficient on the synthetic breaking her maiden on debut at Turfway Park and coming back off the layoff in March with a strong win. She showed class in a strong N3 allowance in June with the BTL place effort overcoming a TROUBLE_S with a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ at the 6f distance. That June allowance given a similar par to today and earning a B OptixGRADE in solid company featuring graded stakes types and the winner, Your So Sillea, wheeling back to win the Twin Bridges Stakes last month at Ellis Park.