Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 ELIZA VANCE will pick this spot rather than run against fillies on the Thursday program. She brings upside from the debut with added ground and maturity along with the intent coming from the placement. While she does make the change to run against colts/geldings she fits in here and given the edge over those others with experience. #5 LEOS WISH makes their debut and appears race ready for the connections. The barn does not have a large sample of FTS and looking for their first winner in this category, however, have been knocking on the door with many of those debuting juveniles finishing in the money. 

A tough race to have a lot of confidence as someone must step up and could see the public default to #6 CUCAY as they appear the “safer” option shipping in from GP, though one that still have some question marks overall and in today’s event that might not be offset of value. There are others here with races this season and must step up, though at the same time making positive changes to do just that: #1 CUPID’S WAR debuted around two turns showing early speed before losing ground and claimed out of that debut was protected returning in their second start. They opened as the favorite on 7/22 at a slightly higher MCL level and the connections come back today with the drop and belated two turn return.

Perez has a pair with #4 MONEY AGENT the more established and one that must improve at this level from the two starts in May and June though finds a softer race par, a par similar to the April events when competitive at the lower MCL condition; #2 DRAFTSMAN projected to improve on the DROP going back to the late season debut last August and now takes that drop in this second start back off the long layoff. 

A compact stakes race with half of the field represented by C. Block and leading the pack with #5 ANOTHER MYSTERY. The connections deserve a lot of credit bringing this race horse back for 2024 and finding his top form with the back class on display this season pairing wins and consistent speed figures. Those factors make him a major player here and the horse to beat in this race. As far as stablemate #3 TOWERING STORM one that has shown progression in his two starts this season and perfect record coming into this event where he will be tested against older, established runners. His edge on class and perhaps even showing early speed gives the push over stablemate #6 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY one that is softer all around and should be the longest odds on the board.

C. Block does not come as loaded on volume, though does have a live runner in #3 SIVAKO in this spot. While his “better” races to date and this season have been contested on the turf, his progressive form also has come in this 4yo campaign. His lone dirt start this year can be upgraded given the poor track conditions and legit TROUBLES+ coming off the layoff in March at the FG. In terms of the surface switch, he handled this main track last year (maiden win over this main track with J. Felix aboard) and much like his progression all around improved with racing and maturity. The early pace projects to be honest (Sun/29 SpeedRate) and his runstyle fits today’s race shape.

This is a tough race given the conditions and form of the participants in this race. When looking at form cycle #4 MOHAAFETH has improved with each start this season and could be taken as a confident move with the slight step up in this race. His back class and current progression could land positively in the right time and place. #1 GOOD APPLE takes the drop while many others will step up to fill the field. As an IL-bred they will race for the higher tag and looking for the right spot for him to compete and transfer his form to pick up the first win in open company. 

The long layoff combined with the massive drop in class is a tough combination though #5 UNCLE HEADLEY looks to be a tough favorite in this spot. As some consideration for the changes and time away, he was claimed for $15k back in late 2022 and made more than his fair share back with his win in claiming company before landing the off the turf N1 allowance win last summer. For both of those wins, A. Centeno was aboard and returning today is a positive sign.

#6 ONE PUTT RICHIE has the edge on recency and in terms of current form has shown some improvement this year on a quest for a win. He has back number along with a win over this course and distance under similar conditions in the past and appears the time and place to return to that in this spot. #8 MALIGATOR also finds a change in class and picking this spot rather than a similar event on Thursday. His current form should transfer here, though does not hold any strong edge overall. 

#2 CROSSANNA is a legit contender and likely favorite in this spot. She turned in a BTL effort on debut in a competitive race to finish in a BLANKET at the wire and while the number was not as strong in June, she paired up the B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level. She has been off the two months since, though not by design but rather weather with three scratches as races were moved to the main track.

A couple of “new shooters” could take attention and provide a challenge in this spot: #1 DATAW ISLAND makes a belated return and upside in this sophomore debut. She arguably met a stronger group late in the 2023 TAM season than #3 MY VERSION in her June debut and likely to get attention for the connections and a trip where the TROUBLE- could be exaggerated.

In terms of surface/distance, #6 MACHIVA has established form and progressed race to race, however has a bigger hurdle here with the significant step up in class. The class is also a rise a for #7 CLASSY ACTION coming in from FAN, though from a physical standpoint should move up on the TURF and STRETCH out in distance in this second start off the layoff and sneaky trip last month. The change in class also comes into play for #8 TIZMEONEMORETIME after debuting in statebred company, though should also be at home on the TURF. #4 ELODINE should be able to transfer her form back to the turf, though has lacked finish despite the LONE FLOW aided trips (downgrade) in the two recent starts.

#1 SAMARITA wants revenge after putting up an EX _ EXCUSE returning on July 28^th to rebound here. She was compromised out of the gate (TROUBLES+) stumbled and placement (TACTIC-) had her taking KICKBACK and shuffled out of contention in running though was not without running still continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. SAMARITA has enough tactical speed to put herself in the race (Quad I Square above ParLine) and rate behind the pacesetters (#5 BETTY’S SECRET, #7 TRIPLE SCOUT and #8 LILY’S WOOFY) drawn to her outside.

#1 APRIL’S GEM has a look back under similar conditions from a subtle trip and subtle changes here. Heading into the 8/4 event she had a look with the added ground and class drop, though timing noted on the one week turnaround and does find a slightly SHORTER two turn distance today. In running, she was carried out (TROUBLE) early and put into a DUEL setting a Very Fast early (and late) pace giving her an upgrade. She moves up on the Plot as a Quad I Square, similar to #9 LOTTA ROSES, and should be higher today of the two given the recent finishing position from that common race.

#7 COTTON CANDY ANNIE is also tough to ignore, especially looking at the Plot. The connections appear to been searching for the right spot along with conditioning coming back this year. She has shown progression with racing though also some class weaknesses to suggest this drop is less of a concern and more a logical placement at this point in the season.

The race flow benefit #4 KINGBURY DREAM and will look to run on late once again, though trip will be key along with value and should get attention off the finishing position and with C. Emigh back aboard. #3 SENSE OF SELF also must work a trip from off the pace, though should hold plenty of price compensation. She has buried form and competitive races at this level that keeps her in the mix. 

Interesting race as there are a few stretching out in here and not a ton of early pace. 6-CUCUY comes in from Florida for today's race as he has faced tougher and tries conventional dirt for the first time. The connections have been solid of late and he could rate a bit closer early in here. 1-CUPID'S WAR chased around two turns on the turf in his debut. He hung around into the lane in that spot before tiring late as he was claimed from that start. Let's see if he can rate close from the inside once again. One that could improve with the class relief and stretch in distance is 7-CRUZIN N CURSIN. He showed speed in his debut before tiring into the lane and faced a tough bunch in his last. With the ability to relax around two turns, he may be able to save something into the lane.

There's certain horses you just love to watch race and 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES is one of those for me. He's just such a cool, game old racehorse who is still putting forth solid efforts on the racetrack while at a high level. He has versatility and with the likelihood of a contested early pace, he should be able to rate and rally late. 2-ARDANWOOD has speed but may have company as well. What was interesting was that James Graham came in to ride him last out and gave him a great trip. No Graham today but he gets Mojica back aboard, who was on him in victory three starts back. 6-EMPIRE BUILDER is the other with speed who steps up in his second back off the layoff. He may be the fastest to the front in this spot and if he can clear, he could get brave on the lead.

A really solid field in this spot as there's a bit of pace in the race. The class relief and the ability to possibly rate could help the chances of 1-GOOD APPLE as he draws the rail today. He comes out of a tough bunch in his last but battled on through the lane. Look for him to settle and wear down the leaders late.  4-MOHAAFETH was rallying late in his last as he was a solid second in that spot. If the pace is contested early it will benefit his chances to close. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE is one with speed who also gets some class relief. He likes the distance and the racetrack as he merits a look for sure.

So hard to determine what we will get in here off the layoff for Uncle Headley so I will try to beat him in this spot, despite the figures. Went on top to 6-ONE PUTT RICHIE as he comes in off a good second where he was claimed in his last. He has some tactical speed and picks up Mojica in the saddle. Let's see if he can track the leaders early today and take over late. 8-MALIGATOR scratched out of a race on Thursday for this spot as the old timer gets some class relief. He does have the ability to close late and just needs that pace to chase. 5-UNCLE HEADLEY has been away for nearly a year as he was running well to close out 2023 and now plunges. If ready he will be tough, but there's a lot of questions to answer.

This field came together nicely as there's multiple horses in with a chance. Giving the nod to 2-CROSSANNA as she just missed when on the grass in her last and will be flying late in here. She gets the mile distance once again and looks to be sitting ona winning effort. 6-MACHIVA has improved in her last couple as she is another that will be closing quickly late. She gets Murgia in the saddle as he rides a pair for Dorochenko on Sunday and the price should be right. 3-MY VERSION is in from Kentucky after a turf debut in Indiana last out. She chased into the lane in there and ran evenly late as she should be a square price today.

A very evenly matched field in here as many have a chance and nobody should be a heavy favorite. The winner last time was 4-FIRST KITTEN as she rated early and rallied in the lane. She's been at her best with Centeno in the saddle as he returns today.  She loves the track and the distance as all could line up for a big effort. 7-TRIPLE SCOUT has tactical speed as well as she battled on the lead in her last and didn't give way until late. She figures to show speed once again as we will see if she has company upfront. 1-SAMARITA should be close but I don't expect to find her on the front end. If she is able to rate in this spot, she's another that should be picking off horses late.

The class relief may be all that is needed for 7-COTTON CANDY ANNIE as she has faced much tougher in recent starts. Her turf starts have been decent and she could get a good amount of pace to close into. 9-LOTTA ROSES has improved in her last three as she closed late to run a good second in her last. The price should be right as you should get every bit of the 5-1. 4-KINGSBURY DREAM is another that will benefit from the pace ahead of her. She will be closing from even further back in this spot but the back class could help her chances as well.

As expected, 1-TAKEITAWAY ran well in his debut. He only finished third of six but he had pressed the pace early and didn’t fade too much late. He’s had a couple drills since that start. Should be prepared to stay more competitive throughout. 6-ELIZA VANCE is a filly meeting the boys. She got off to a terrible start and never fully recovered in her lone start. It’s been two months since that race but she’s been training well since. This $285,000 auction purchase was favored in her debut. Might be able to make amends in this one. 2-RUMBLING, stablemate of top choice, has been training well for his debut. The barn wins with a high percentage (33%) of their first-time starters and does quite well in baby races.

This looks like the right spot for 4-MONEY AGENT. He’s had a lot of races and has started for a lower claiming price but this race did seem to come up abnormally easy. 1-CUPID’S WAR drops, stretches out, and goes from turf to dirt. He appears to be the quickest member of this field. He could be sent to an easy lead, slow down the pace, and finish with something left. 2-DRAFTSMAN finished up the track in both races but both were against maiden specials. Stablemate on top choice could improve in his first start vs. maiden claimers.

5-ANOTHER MYSTERY looks awfully tough. This multiple stakes winner won his last two and now has three wins and two seconds from his five local turf races. Because this is a handicap and he seems so superior to his rivals in here, he’s give up anywhere between a six- and nine-pound weight allowance but it shouldn’t make any difference. He would eclipse $750,000 in career earnings with a win and he seems likely to do it. 3-TOWERING STORM, from the same barn as top choice, has been victorious in both of his starts. He’s giving up a serious experience edge to all his rivals but he hasn’t done anything wrong yet. We’ll see. 1-SILVER QUARTERS finished about five lengths behind Another Mystery in the Bucks Boy but he was making up ground late and might appreciate the extra distance of this race.

2-ARDANWOOD already has a pair of wins at this level this meet. Speedy runner is likely to find plenty of company on the front end but he often puts the rest of the speed away and he can do it again. 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES is a classy old guy that isn’t quite as fast as he used to be but still gives his all in every race. He has 10 wins and six other money finishes from 20 Hawthorne dirt starts. Can easily share in this one. 7-RUNWITHHEART’s speed figures aren’t quite as high as those of some others in here but he did win two of his three local starts and with his tactical speed he should be racing right off the contested pace and could take over if his speedier rivals falter.

There are quite a few speed types in this race but 1-GOOD APPLE could be the speediest of them all, though he has shown some ability to run from off the pace. In any case, he’s dropping to the lowest claiming price of his career. He finished out of the money only twice in his eight-race career. Figures to stay sharp. 2-TABLE MONEY surprised in last, his turf debut. He beat allowance company in that spot and paid nearly $50 doing it. After that win it’s a bit surprising to see him back on the main track but most of his prior success did come on dirt. His sharp pilot will have him tracing the possible contested pace. Could run by them all. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE seems to be a bit off form but he’s dropping in class and returning to the main track for this. He could easily challenge for the lead and might even prove to be the best of the speed.

8-MALIGATOR was clearly overmatched in his last couple starts and racing on turf didn’t help. But he’s back on dirt and dropping many levels to what could be the lowest level of his career. Wakes up in a big way. 5-UNCLE HEADLY would have gone off at 2-5 last year if he had dropped to this level. However, he hasn’t raced in nearly a year and his recent drills just don’t look that promising. It would surprise if this late runner won this but it wouldn’t surprise if he didn’t. It seems likely that 4-BE LUCKY will be sent right to the lead. Ignore his last on turf; the race was too tough and too long. He has a legitimate chance to wire the field against these foes.

2-CROSSANNA has had two outstanding races. Unfortunately, neither resulted in victory. But today could be her day. In her first race, she closed about seven lengths to miss by only a half and that contest turned out to be a “key” race. In her second start, she moved a little earlier and got to the lead in the stretch but she could quite hang on and finished second, a mere neck behind. It’s been a little over two months since her last race but her barn has been training her constantly. She looks ready. 3-MY VERSION didn’t really show a lot in her lone start but this regally-bred filly can’t be ignored. She races for a top barn for one of the top owners in the world. First Lasix is a plus. Expecting far better. 5-DEALE’M N WEEP looked sharp in her debut on turf but, in her follow-up start on dirt, she couldn’t have looked much worse, ultimately finishing last, 54 lengths behind the winner. But they have been training her aggressively since that last race. This race should be back on the lawn. Should bounce back in a big way.

It’s almost impossible to eliminate any of the runners in here. None in here would surprise me. 1-SAMARITA got off to a poor start and then ran into some traffic trouble in last which, hopefully, accounted for her poor effort. She’s been in incredible form for most of the year and all of 2023. She’ll never be too far off the pace. Can take over at will. 8-LILY'S WOOFY is another in the midst of a great year but she has, for the most part, been meeting rivals easier than those of top choice. She’s probably a bit quicker than top choice but she might not be able to close ground if she is headed. However, she is capable of wiring the field. 3-DOC'S SEVEN drops. She’s met allowance company in her last two. She just missed three races back, the last time she ran at this level. The pace of this race is likely to set up for her late run. 7-TRIPLE SCOUT finished behind some of these in last but she was sent to the lead and she’s been when tracking the early pace. Wouldn’t count her out. 

7-COTTON CANDY ANNIE takes a much-needed drop in class. She never really showed much in previous turf starts but her speed figures are comparable and she was always in against better. She should be tough at this level. 4-KINGSBURY DREAM makes her third start of the meet while dropping to the lowest level of her career. She finished third in her last. Can get the job done at this level. 8-TRIBEST is worth another look. She’s certainly eligible to meet easier but she could easily be the best speed in this race.