Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 ELIZA VANCE will pick this spot rather than run against fillies on the Thursday program. She brings upside from the debut with added ground and maturity along with the intent coming from the placement. While she does make the change to run against colts/geldings she fits in here and given the edge over those others with experience. #5 LEOS WISH makes their debut and appears race ready for the connections. The barn does not have a large sample of FTS and looking for their first winner in this category, however, have been knocking on the door with many of those debuting juveniles finishing in the money. 

A tough race to have a lot of confidence as someone must step up and could see the public default to #6 CUCAY as they appear the “safer” option shipping in from GP, though one that still have some question marks overall and in today’s event that might not be offset of value. There are others here with races this season and must step up, though at the same time making positive changes to do just that: #1 CUPID’S WAR debuted around two turns showing early speed before losing ground and claimed out of that debut was protected returning in their second start. They opened as the favorite on 7/22 at a slightly higher MCL level and the connections come back today with the drop and belated two turn return.

Perez has a pair with #4 MONEY AGENT the more established and one that must improve at this level from the two starts in May and June though finds a softer race par, a par similar to the April events when competitive at the lower MCL condition; #2 DRAFTSMAN projected to improve on the DROP going back to the late season debut last August and now takes that drop in this second start back off the long layoff. 

A compact stakes race with half of the field represented by C. Block and leading the pack with #5 ANOTHER MYSTERY. The connections deserve a lot of credit bringing this race horse back for 2024 and finding his top form with the back class on display this season pairing wins and consistent speed figures. Those factors make him a major player here and the horse to beat in this race. As far as stablemate #3 TOWERING STORM one that has shown progression in his two starts this season and perfect record coming into this event where he will be tested against older, established runners. His edge on class and perhaps even showing early speed gives the push over stablemate #6 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY one that is softer all around and should be the longest odds on the board.

C. Block does not come as loaded on volume, though does have a live runner in #3 SIVAKO in this spot. While his “better” races to date and this season have been contested on the turf, his progressive form also has come in this 4yo campaign. His lone dirt start this year can be upgraded given the poor track conditions and legit TROUBLES+ coming off the layoff in March at the FG. In terms of the surface switch, he handled this main track last year (maiden win over this main track with J. Felix aboard) and much like his progression all around improved with racing and maturity. The early pace projects to be honest (Sun/29 SpeedRate) and his runstyle fits today’s race shape.

This is a tough race given the conditions and form of the participants in this race. When looking at form cycle #4 MOHAAFETH has improved with each start this season and could be taken as a confident move with the slight step up in this race. His back class and current progression could land positively in the right time and place. #1 GOOD APPLE takes the drop while many others will step up to fill the field. As an IL-bred they will race for the higher tag and looking for the right spot for him to compete and transfer his form to pick up the first win in open company. 

The long layoff combined with the massive drop in class is a tough combination though #5 UNCLE HEADLEY looks to be a tough favorite in this spot. As some consideration for the changes and time away, he was claimed for $15k back in late 2022 and made more than his fair share back with his win in claiming company before landing the off the turf N1 allowance win last summer. For both of those wins, A. Centeno was aboard and returning today is a positive sign.

#6 ONE PUTT RICHIE has the edge on recency and in terms of current form has shown some improvement this year on a quest for a win. He has back number along with a win over this course and distance under similar conditions in the past and appears the time and place to return to that in this spot. #8 MALIGATOR also finds a change in class and picking this spot rather than a similar event on Thursday. His current form should transfer here, though does not hold any strong edge overall. 

#2 CROSSANNA is a legit contender and likely favorite in this spot. She turned in a BTL effort on debut in a competitive race to finish in a BLANKET at the wire and while the number was not as strong in June, she paired up the B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level. She has been off the two months since, though not by design but rather weather with three scratches as races were moved to the main track.

A couple of “new shooters” could take attention and provide a challenge in this spot: #1 DATAW ISLAND makes a belated return and upside in this sophomore debut. She arguably met a stronger group late in the 2023 TAM season than #3 MY VERSION in her June debut and likely to get attention for the connections and a trip where the TROUBLE- could be exaggerated.

In terms of surface/distance, #6 MACHIVA has established form and progressed race to race, however has a bigger hurdle here with the significant step up in class. The class is also a rise a for #7 CLASSY ACTION coming in from FAN, though from a physical standpoint should move up on the TURF and STRETCH out in distance in this second start off the layoff and sneaky trip last month. The change in class also comes into play for #8 TIZMEONEMORETIME after debuting in statebred company, though should also be at home on the TURF. #4 ELODINE should be able to transfer her form back to the turf, though has lacked finish despite the LONE FLOW aided trips (downgrade) in the two recent starts.

#1 SAMARITA wants revenge after putting up an EX _ EXCUSE returning on July 28^th to rebound here. She was compromised out of the gate (TROUBLES+) stumbled and placement (TACTIC-) had her taking KICKBACK and shuffled out of contention in running though was not without running still continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. SAMARITA has enough tactical speed to put herself in the race (Quad I Square above ParLine) and rate behind the pacesetters (#5 BETTY’S SECRET, #7 TRIPLE SCOUT and #8 LILY’S WOOFY) drawn to her outside.

#1 APRIL’S GEM has a look back under similar conditions from a subtle trip and subtle changes here. Heading into the 8/4 event she had a look with the added ground and class drop, though timing noted on the one week turnaround and does find a slightly SHORTER two turn distance today. In running, she was carried out (TROUBLE) early and put into a DUEL setting a Very Fast early (and late) pace giving her an upgrade. She moves up on the Plot as a Quad I Square, similar to #9 LOTTA ROSES, and should be higher today of the two given the recent finishing position from that common race.

#7 COTTON CANDY ANNIE is also tough to ignore, especially looking at the Plot. The connections appear to been searching for the right spot along with conditioning coming back this year. She has shown progression with racing though also some class weaknesses to suggest this drop is less of a concern and more a logical placement at this point in the season.

The race flow benefit #4 KINGBURY DREAM and will look to run on late once again, though trip will be key along with value and should get attention off the finishing position and with C. Emigh back aboard. #3 SENSE OF SELF also must work a trip from off the pace, though should hold plenty of price compensation. She has buried form and competitive races at this level that keeps her in the mix.