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Mon August 26th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Ellis Park Race 1
Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Double digit odds create appeal on #4 GOTTA HAVE DREAMS one that has had some resistance to pick up that first win though competitive races along the way. Most of his career he was overmatched in MSW company including his two grass starts last year as a juvenile. The foundation and added ground could be to his benefit and upgraded from the WIDE trip racing against the dynamic last month playing a role in the outcome.
#3 PUBLIUS projected to improve with the return to TURF and did just that off the bench two weeks ago. The connection wheel right back with fitness and should be competitive under similar conditions.
Ellis Park Race 2
Post Time 12:20 PM CST
#2 BIRD KING finds considerable class relief returning from a near two month break with the barn change. He should move up naturally in that spot and potential intent as T. Newton has sent out live runners on this circuit in a limited sample as of late.
Ellis Park Race 4
Post Time 1:21 PM CST
#6 MR MCGREGOR is logical on the class drop late in the meet looking for the right spot to compete. #3 SEASON FIGHTER could be a bit of a reach as they are lighter number wise though lightly raced, a drop in class and move to the TURF that could move them up on the surface switch.
Ellis Park Race 5
Post Time 1:54 PM CST
#4 GOLDEN BUCK should hold value and upside with the subtle change in class and form cycle. While he makes the change to the main track his current form and figures fit on par and back in for the $10k tag and one turn distance, the conditions of the maiden win in June.
Ellis Park Race 6
Post Time 2:26 PM CST
Despite the running line and finishing position #7 MOMBAYLA caught the eye with the BTL effort - compromised at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) made a WIDE BURST and can IMPROVE off those visuals.
#14 SEXARITO is sitting on the AE though showed run despite a subtle EX - EXCUSE on debut and BTL effort all things considered.
Ellis Park Race 7
Post Time 2:52 PM CST
#4 STIGLETS projected to move up with the STRETCH out in distance from the debut and did just that last month and could present another move forward off the foundation.
Trip will be key for the outside runners and some racing luck in the case of #13 RIGHTEOUS STAR (IMPROVE) to draw in off the AE; #12 ROYAL BRO looked to need their debut and put in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ out in their sprint debut last month.