Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at the Plot the contention should be honest and set up #5 LAND MARK DEAL to work the right trip and at the right level to pick up a belated win. He should secure first run on #1 MILLARD’S SMILE one capable of winning right back for the new connections and in form though could be further back today and likely short with those noted factors here.

The early pace is tricky as the two Q1 runners are not E/EP types and forced into that role. That includes #4 TWO COOKIE RULE one that has held his own turned in a winning effort at longer odds back on 7/18 though has since come up short and visually might benefit from more time between starts something they lack here. As far as #6 BANDIT SWANSON he has races on return showing progression race-to-race and can be upgraded though requires visuals once again with the present front wraps. 

As far as the non-statebred runners: it is possible #4 HA HA GLORIA will command some wagering support here though overall must step up and comes into this race with numbers lighter than her rivals and while proven on the turf and decent races over this course, must still contend with winners and improve in the process. #5 GRAYTANA will also be tested to step back up in class, however her race at this level on 7/6 was credible forced to DUEL X_FLOW and could turn out to be the ”speed of the speed” given the 5f distance.

In the statebred group: #2 DEVIL will make her TURF debut though off the visuals should handle the surface switch, at the least transfer her form/figures, though could even improve and has the edge on that front. In terms of the V. Childers pair, #3 CLOEY ATTACK has stepped up with each race this season and remaining on this circuit whereas #6 REBA ATTACK moved to FD to pick up the recent wins though has held her form all season and kept in the minor mix. 

Looking at the Plot, the presence of #4 ACCELERATING BABE should make things tougher on #1 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS with the rail draw and the dominate speed to their outside. There is a scenario where those two run 1-2 in this spot with the others off the pace and hoping to pick up horses late.

#2 WRITTEN CONSENT took the drop in the 8/18 common race and a little more could have been expected from here though was cold on the board, giving up recency from the 42-day freshening and had some TROUBLE_S as well as a WARM_UP, some subtle factors to project she has a move forward and can become more competitive here. #7 SEQUAYA should also find herself more competitive today. For the first time in a long time, she moves off the rail and overall better draw something that has played against her and would be the time (and price) to jump on board. Keeping with the Plot theme, SEQUAYA’s position is right there with WRITTEN CONSENT and #5 BABAS GAL and should be the higher odds of that trio. 

The change in class is notable for #7 ERNESTINA though primarily the distance cutting back to ONE_TURN from the recent two turn event. She can upgraded racing WIDE X_FLOW and in terms of the finish was given a NO_PUSH after losing position late. The timing and class drop also should assist #6 QUEEN ANNA T one that has some gate (TROUBLE_S) issues in the two recent higher MCL starts in KY and overmatched (DROP) in each of the three as well. Those two hold the edge over the others with races at this MCL level this season and even #3 CHIQUITA REINA one that finds closer to a lateral change in class, something that should keep her in the minor mix, though a touch light in terms of a prime contender. 

With the two B. Vanden Berg runners #2 FRANKEL BABY and #6 GET THE CANDY joined by #3 RAMBERT and kept honest with #7 MADELYN BELLE in the race and drawn outside the early pace should be Contentious (Sun) and honest (43 SpeedRate) to assist a runner from off the pace. Looking the Plot that upgrades the two QIV Squares with the edge to #1 FROSTED ÉCLAIR as a contender based on the form this season whereas #4 CHROME ATTACK, requires a lot of racing luck to win under these conditions though strong underneath type.

The Plot is not overly favorable to #5 SHE’S WANDAFUL though capable under today’s conditions to work a trip. Her form coming into this race is progressive looking at the Past 3 Runlines and holds back numbers on the turf in the 5.5f sprints from last August that stack up on par and used a similar progressive form cycle to get to those wins. 

With a bulk of the field returning from the 8/11 common race it is worth noting the course profile that day and for that event favoring runners on the lead and won gate to wire by Sendemdowntheroad with minimal change in running order. The race favorite, #2 CAPTAIN’S FLAG was stepped on from behind (TROUBLE_S) soon after the start and forced into the race losing place late to #6 MALIBU BRAD one that also had TROUBLE_S and those two should be forward in today’s race looking at the Plot and with layoff returnee #7 ULTIMATE FIGHTER all positioned in Quad I.

Trip should fall to #8 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX taking a different path and slight 49-day freshening into this event. The outside post along with the race shape works in his favor and has been his most competitive under similar conditions including the 5/25 race recording the B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level. #1 KEYSER could also find pace to target and a fair surface that as noted, had him up against it three weeks ago. 

#7 AMERICAN MAYHEM looks live in this spot as he makes his second start back off the long layoff and returning to the sprint distance. The placement here both sprinting and remaining protected in allowance company is favorable and brings further upside with the 34-day return and fitness PRESSED on a Fast early/late pace in the recent Ellis Park return to the races – the C. Block winner, Out of Deductions winning from off the pace. The change in distance should not have them on the lead here with proven sprint speed in the race and the dynamic with the OptixRPM showing 8 of the 9 with either the E/EP Runstyle and AMERICAN MAYHEM the long PC with the Large stalking Square. 

#7 GLOBAL EMPIRE had the buried form and class to provide value setting up the win on 8/4 and looks well placed to repeat. He should hold his form here with confidence under A. Santos, the returning rider. He should look for a similar stalking trip with tactical speed and could see a slightly more assertive rider on #2 DOUBLE THUNDER; however if they try to rate the plan for Ulloa should be to send #4 SLAVA UKRAINI today and perhaps that allows them the edge to try and give this field the slip and potential wire-to-wire threat. The Plot position/shape is tough to ignore on #3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS (granted he had benefit from favorable trips as of late) as well as #8 ROCKET HOTSHOT though will be tested for class showing up here with O. Mojica taking over as A. Santos sticks with GLOBAL EMPIRE. 

This is a competitive race with the entire field placed where they can compete and comes down to trip and which runner will put forward their best race on the day. That includes some slightly “new” faces: #2 DRAMA QUEENIE in that role making her first start in at the MCL level and could move up second off and coming back from the 8/15 race where she was likely “given” the needed (GREEN) return as the barn sent out a well-intended stablemate winner in Absolute Miracle pointed to the main track that day.

The change in surface (TURF) and distance (STRETCH) was a noted upgrade for #8 CLASSY ACTION when she was entered last week un a turf mile event though was a greater concern in MSW company and finds a better placement today on this circuit in for the MCL tag. The debut around two turns and from the rail can be a tricky combination, though would not discount first time starter #1 ENTICING OPTION in capable hands with steady works and the placement reasonable showing up late in the season for a first start.