Handicapper Tips & Picks

The complexion of this race does not hold a lot of early speed upgrading the two with tactical speed: #3 PEGGY’S WAY wheels back for her second start in against winners and from the 8/15 race when she was forced to RUSH X_FLOW playing a role in the NO_FINISH late. With the recency, local experience and inside position she can look to get the jump (and value) on #6 MISS SAIPAN one that makes sense showing up on this circuit though also lacked finish with less of an excuse in July at Ellis Park and today’s group is closer to a lateral move noting the circuit switch.

#5 RESOLUTION was upgraded back on 7/25 with the class DROP in her second start against winners and returns fresh off the 42-day break for this event. She had some pace to CLOSE into at this level and might still be required for her with the pattern of gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) throughout her career. She could present the value over #2 QUIERO DINERO one that had a similar trip and overall effort in that July common race and the two both at similar odds on the day – and FLOW aided from the 8/15 common race with PEGGY’S WAY. 

Looking at the Plot, this is a tricky race from a pace standpoint. There is a Fire Contention with four of the seven positioned in Quad I, though paired with a moderate 29 SpeedRate. This scenario could still see a “BOS” while also assist runners from off the pace and does create a “rider’s race” and even a “best horse on the day” type situation especially with the shorter 5.5f distance. #2 UNCAPTURED PULSE could be that runner. He wheels right back in a week and can show more early speed something compromised with the TROUBLE_S and Slow early pace that developed in from of him with IMPROVE potential. Today’s Plot position, Fire/SpeedRate is similar to the June 22^nd event (albeit a 6f distance), a race he won with a PERFECT trip with the 26-1 upset and could find similar here. 

The prime hurdle for #2 DOC’S SEVEN as the expected favorite is pace as she makes her run form off (Quad II) and tactical speed is often key over this course and there are not many confirmed front runners in this field. A similar “trip” concern could be present for #6 BALI BABY, however looking at Surface/Distance she is positioned in Quad I and with that trip (along with buried form and return to the right level to compete) she can work out what is needed for that belated win.  The race shape should also suit #1 BE MY BESTIE one that has been too consistent to ignore throughout her career and in capable hands returning from the two month break.

The race shape could also assist longshot #8 ALLOTROPE one that has been looking for a grass return and has not been on the grass for these connections and not since last year as a sophomore in MSW company running competitive races at CBY that fit on par with many in this field and consistent with her current form. She wheels back from a competitive 8/18 race with Frosted Éclair winning at 3-5 from off the pace and that was the first start in 84-days for ALLOTROPE, returning with the front wraps and something to look for in the paddock today.

The analysis starts with #4 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS a runner that only fits this conditions after the late DQ from the May 26^th win and one that has been consistent all season lone. He also has consistently taken up the role as a heavy favorite and tough to see that changing in this spot. While looking at the Plot, he has the Square advantage over many of the pacesetters, though also must contend with the Fire and high 75 SpeedRate something that could catch up with him late.

The Standard Plot upgrades #7 PARKER where a case can be made, however the 5-2 projected odds are shorter on this runner with the change in distance, a downgrade on Surface/Distance Plot, something that requires price compensation. The race shape and Plot consistency suits #2 NOT VERY GENTLE one that should have the pace (Quad II Square) dynamic in his favor and look to turn the tables on KHOZAN’S SUCCESS the conventional way. 

In a competitive event, #8 KING OF THE PALACE fits today’s race shape and in strong hands with J. Felix aboard. He fits on form class and consistency and does hold a place finish over this course (with Felix aboard) gong back to his second career start last August in MSW company. This marks the third start back off the layoff and upside in the second start against winners, keying off the higher par last month at CBY along with the trip making a WIDE CLOSE after TROUBLE_S (the top four together at the wire) that could see them show more tactical speed here. He will also be given preference over stablemate #5 TALONS TIME wheeling right back form the 8/8 common race.

Showing a little more tactical speed can be crucial over this course and with the complexion of the field as some of the speed comes from the two MTO runners. #3 DINOS DIXIE projects to show early speed today and rebound off a legit EX – EXCUSE from the TROUBLES+ that had him lose his footing and race projecting as the controlling speed on 8/18.

As far as #6 MAHONEY ROAD he should run his race and get involved though does not present value in this spot lacking any real strong edge to separate him as a main contender at shorter odds. #4 ON KP projects to hold longer odds again and one that will make a belated return to Hawthorne and the turf. He has struggled on form this year though could be the time and place to rebound off the 54-day freshening and “bullet” at DUQ coming into this race. Form must also hold for #7 CLYDE’S GREEN GO one coming off a top effort and 40-day break into this spot. 

Class comes into play for many in this field, including #5 CANYON SHADOWS one that does find a favorable move back to statebred company. The intent also follows with the turf-to-dirt move that was effective picking up the maiden score in July. #6 RHODIUMS PRIDE is another that finds hidden and considerable class relief from the recent starts with the higher race par. That includes the two statebred allowance races earlier this season, both a higher par and going back to the 4/21 event turned in a  strong effort and tight (SCARED) rail CLOSE that day under J. Felix, the returning rider here.

Trainer E. Lopez comes into this race double fisted with a pair and while looking at the Plot, #7 LATE BLACKSMITH could present the controlling speed, #1 RED MOSCATO comes into this event with form and progression from the races this season. In terms of class, RED MOSCATO will be tested moving away from claiming company, though to be fair he was against open and comparable race par in this spot. He also has shown progression race-to-race and that was similar last season the connections giving him a chance in the Futurity before closing out the cycle at the Fair Grounds.

#1 TOUGH LITTLE NUT makes a belated return and returning under similar conditions to the 6/16 race when turning in a B/BTL effort with the place finish. He was upgraded on the day with progressive form coming out of FG/KEE higher par/purse N1X allowance events, albeit in restricted sophomore company. He had the form over this course and class keying off that one local start and looking at the Plot, he should have pace to target with the higher 63 SpeedRate.

Part of that SpeedRate includes #7 IRIS’S DREAM one that makes a belated return and smartly sticking to the TURF. He fits this race and tough to discount with speed/class on par and even with the higher SpeedRate and Sun Contention he sits as a tracking Quad I/II Square. #6 GREAT COOLNESS will also give up recency making his first start back in 236-days. His B-/BTL allowance effort (TROUBLES+ TRAFFIC CLOSE) back on 12/9 puts him right into the mix here though still must show up with a top effort. The connections have had him on the grounds training steadily going back to mid-June according to the published works, something that could come with reservations taking extra time to get to the races. 

#3 MYSTIC STORM is deserving of another look after faltering as the favorite last out, though requires to be on better behavior today. She was very fractious in the GATE playing a role in the TROUBLE_S and TROUBLE in running showing interest in a subtle trip chasing a Very Slow early and late pace set by the open length pacesetting winner, Top Look. The connection wheel right back in two weeks and with a rider change as O. Mojica takes over.

Trip should suit MYSTIC STORM as well as #7 PALACE MAGIC looking at the Plot with both #5 GO STORMIN GIRL and #6 THINK BLUE in the field (kept honest by outside runner #10 SWEET CRYSTAL and potentially #4 SUMMER AT THE SPA) – runners that fit as individuals though must deal with each other in the early stages to pull off the win. The Contention also should suit #8 SHEZA HOOT One that was competitive under similar circumstances back in July and taken out of her runstyle (TACTIC-) last month and should fall into her preferred trip here. 

Starting to look towards the end of the meet and notable with many on the class drop in here. That includes #2 WOLF HUNTER a long time maiden though one that will make just his first start for a tag on this circuit and upgraded with that change as a “new face” despite the race record. The extreme SPACED race shape did him no favors last month and will reunite here with R. Blanche, a rider that has been up in the past and with minor finishes this season.

#5 SHARP STRIKE also wheels back from that SPACED 8/8 common race showing more run than the line and finishing position suggests making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and can IMPROVE all around and the drop should give him his best chance to clear this condition. #4 LONE RETURN also requires the DROP off the race visuals this season. With that day they have not shown much improvement and number wise softer than many other rivals in this field.

As far as the runners in for a claiming tag: #8 I O FEDRO was entered at this $20k MCL level three times before his debut with the connections taking the 8/8 MSW event to get him a race. They wheeled right back and while the DROP looked the right move, the run on the main might not be his preferred surface with the TURF visuals. #9 SKYLANE is a more “experienced” type at this level and versatile in terms of surface. His edge here with J. Felix and early speed along with a live J. Campbell barn keeps him right back in the mix. His effort on 8/15 with the “green” coding gives him an edge over #7 RICKY’S BEST though would still not dismiss that one completely here, though requires some overall price compensation. 

Although a shorter bunch, this race is competitive to open things up on Thursday. A couple with speed sets things up for 2-QUIERE DINERO to rate and run on late. She's been at this level for her last couple and the switch to Centeno will be a boost in the saddle. 6-MISS SAIPAN has speed and may try to clear but will have to contend with Peggy's Way possibly early. If she clears, she could steal this one. A plus is Gutierrez comes in to ride. 4-HOLY IMAGE is another that will be picking off horses late. She has finished second in four straight as she stepped up for a big effort in her last. Let's see if she can get her second win today.

Initially it looks like there could be a decent amount of pace in this race but I believe that 5-WINGING WAYS has much better gate speed than any other in here. He wired the field at Fairmount in his last and has found the board in all four starts on the year. I expect he clears and never looks back at the 5 1/2 furlong distance. 7-MON AMI FUZZIE was one I liked last out but he disappointed a bit in that spot. He was better in the three races prior as he could get into the mix late underneath. 4-FUTURE VISION is another that will be looking to close late as he makes his second start off the layoff. He was a good winner two back and is worth a look at a price.

On turf, 2-DOCS SEVEN is just a different racehorse as she gets back to a winning spot. She beat better on the grass in June before running on too late while facing better last out. With the early pace to the outside, look for her to save ground and run on late along the fence. 6-BALI BABY ran well at this distance two back, chasing the lone speed of Graytana. She is another that will need some pace to chase as she could be overlooked at the windows. 3-RARE ACTION ATTACK will also be looking to rally in the lane as she returns off the rest. Her race two back was strong as Walter Rodriguez is in town to ride.

Worth taking a stab in here as there's quite a bit of early speed to push things along upfront. The addition of Cohen in the saddle makes you take notice of 1-ANCIENT MAN as he will be a big price. His race two back as strong as he chased the lone speed and this barn has been solid in the last couple of weeks as well. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE closed to run third in his last couple and should be picking off horses late once again. He loves this Hawthorne strip and will also benefit from the speed ahead of him. 7-PARKER was a good second in his last couple and has also taken well to this Hawthorne strip. He figures to rate in the second flight early as he comes back off the short layoff.

State-bred allowance runners in here with a very competitive bunch. Going to look to the speed and give 5-CANYON SHADOWS the nod as he gets back to the dirt, state-breds and three quarters. This is his second off the layoff as he should be on the gas from the start and can dig in if challenged. 6-RHODIUMS PRIDE looks to stalk the pace as he figures to show more on the turn back in distance. He ran a couple of solid races at this level early in the meet and may be a square price. 2-DASH TO THE CASH just needs to get away in good order as he will be running on late. He has just the one win but has found the board on nine other occasions as the right trip will put him in the mix.

Solid turf bunch with all in with a chance. Despite the layoff I'll look to 6-GREAT COOLNESS as he is bred to run all day and has worked well toward his return. He has tactical speed but the key will be if both DiVito runners run as those are the two who could contest things on the front end. 7-IRIS'S DREAM has been highly regarded as he raced in the Florida Derby just two starts ago. He held his own in a tough turf allowance at Keeneland back in April before some time away from the races. Let's see if he's ready off the rest. 1-TOUGH LITTLE NUT rallied late in his last as he was a solid second in that spot. He will need some pace to chase though as he will have some work to do in the stretch.

Again a race with some pace as the stalker could get the right trip in here. 6-THINK BLUE has run well against better in her last few as Orm comes in to ride. I expect she tucks in just behind the early pace in this race as she looks to get the jump on the closers. 5-GO STORMIN GIRL has been very good this year and the layoff may have been welcome as she has run hard in every start. She loves this track and the distance as she could be right alongside Think Blue much of the way. 3-MYSTIC STORM ran evenly in her last at this level as she picks up Mojica. I'll be curious to see if she takes back a bit further as she could look to run on late.

2-QUIERO DINERO gets a slim nod. She’s finished third at this level in her first local dirt start and improved to finish second in last. She’ll be tracking the early pace. Can edge by late. 6-MISS SAIPAN looks like the best speed. Kentucky shipper is likely to be favored but she does have the tendency to run out of gas late. 4-HOLY IMAGE might give them a run for the money. Although she has been meeting easier for the most part, she did finish second in her last four, losing the last two by a nose and a head.

7-MON AMIE FUZZIE might be the best closer in this speed-filled race. He’s dropping to meet his easiest field in a long time. The pace should set up. Can break through. I loved 2-UNCAPTURED PULSE in last but he just didn’t make the late run I was expecting. The pace of this race, however, just might set up even better. Deserves another chance. 5-WINGING WAYS might be the best of the speed or at least he usually displays the most sustained effort. Has a legitimate chance to put away the rest of the speed and hold the closers safe.

2-DOC'S SEVEN was outgunned in last couple and should be excused those efforts. But, he’s been very good when racing at the right level on turf and this is probably the easiest grass field he has ever met. He beat better the last time Mojica rode him on the lawn. Guessing they’ll get back to the winner’s circle today. 1-BE MY BESTIE certainly figures. It’s been a year since he ran on grass but he has a record of a win and two seconds in his three grass attempts. Switches barns since last and his new barn wins with 32% of those starting for them for the first time. 8-ALLOTROPE might be the best speed. It’s also been a long time since he ran on the weeds but he was also successful in limited tries and even won a maiden special before getting DQ’d.

4-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS has been in very good form here. In his last four local starts, he’s had two wins and two seconds. He's not as quick as some in here but he will never be too far back and he will finish well. 7-PARKER has been a good sprinter and he hasn’t had nearly the same success around two turns. But he is dropping back to the right level and his speed figures suggest that he’s among  the fastest of these. 2-NOT VERY GENTLE will try to come on late. He doesn’t possess a big closing move but he’s more than capable of grinding out a third-place finish.

6-MAHONEY ROAD could get the perfect tracking trip. He was favored at this level in his first local turf trip but was narrowly beaten and finished second. But, he did have considerable trouble in that contest. He’d had only one previous turf race so the recent experience could have helped. The pace of this race might not be quite as quick which could allow him to stay even closer. Late surge can get him by. 5-TALONS TIME finished a little behind top choice in last. Considering that was his turf debut, it was a strong effort. He was even making up ground late. The extra real estate of this race could work to his advantage. Experience certainly helps. 7-CLYDE'S GREEN GO is an interesting runner. He's had three turf races, all at Arlington in 2021, and ran well in all of them. He's likely to go off at a square price despite good current form. Might want to consider.

Not really sure where to go with this race, None are in great form. There doesn’t seem to be a great pace scenario. It’s been a long time since 2-DASH TO THE CASH has shown anything but he does have a couple things going for him. He has the highest average recent speed figures, he gets the top pilot in the irons, and a lot of horses improve going from turf to dirt. 5-CANYON SHADOWS is another using the turf to dirt angle. He ran well in his state-bred races on dirt and wired the field to break his maiden two starts back. 3-GOD GUNS AND GUTS could turn out to be the best closer in the field.

6-GREAT COOLNESS makes his first start since January. This lightly-raced runner has shown some versatility in his brief career, He was recently gelded (July) but has had four workouts since. Like the presence of Cohen in the irons. Could get this one home first in what appears to be a wide-open field. 1-TOUGH LITTLE NUT is a three-year-old meeting older but he just finished against a similar field. It’s been 10 weeks since his last race but three drills in that interim will have him on his toes for his return to racing. 2-ALL CHOKED UP moves up in class but there’s a possibility that this speedy runner can steal this on the lead. 

5-GO STORMIN GIRL certainly isn’t a standout but she has been in such good form this year that it’s hard to get past her in this spot. She’s had eight races in 2024 and finished in the money in seven of them, including a pair of wins. 6-THINK BLUE looks like the main competition. It’s been two months since her last start and she had only one drill in the interim but her barn does bring them back ready. She possesses some of the highest recent speed figures of any in here. She was narrowly beaten at this level in her only local start. 3-MYSTIC STORM was favored when dropped to this level for last but never really fired and finished 10 lengths behind the winner. Switches to the leading rider for this attempt. When this rider and barn team up, they win 31% of the time. Expecting an improved effort from her today.

7-RICKY'S BEST finally gets turf. He has been entered for turf in his last three starts but every one of those races was moved to the main track. That isn’t going to happen today. He’s bred for the lawn and will utilize the top rider today. Could be poised to surprise. 2-WOLF HUNTER meets his easiest field ever. He showed a lot of promise early on but simply wasn’t good enough to win at higher levels. But that changes with the drop into maiden claimers. The pace of this race will be brisk. He can finally fully utilize his late run. 5-SHARP STRIKE has never shown much but he’s another dropping into maiden claimers. He’s another that has shown good late run at times. Deserves serious consideration.

Race 6:  5 - 2 - 6

Pick 4 Ticket:  2,5 / 1,6,7 / 4,5,6 / 5,7,8  ($27)

#5 Canyon Shadows (7-2) has the early tactical speed to be a factor from start to finish. Not sure if he’s better on dirt than turf, but he faces a semi-weak field for the level and can win if he races similar to his maiden-breaking score two-back.

Race 7:  7 - 1 - 6

Nice turf allowance….#7 Iris’s Dream (3-1) has back-class. In fact,  two starts back he was facing none other than Fierceness in the Florida Derby. His two turf starts are very solid at tough circuits, Gulfstream and Keeneland. He’s been off for a while, but Trainer Winebaugh is good in this category and I expect the Fla-bred gelding to be ready today.

Race 8:  5 - 6 - 4

Hard to trust anyone here, so I’ll go with a horse that will be up close and drops down a tad. #5 Go Stormin Girl (7-2) is consistent and usually fires. She just needs to find a little more in the lane….she’s consistent with 30-out-of-57 races finishing in the money.

Race 9:  7 - 5 - 8

Talk about unlucky….#7 Ricky’s Best (5-1) has tried three times in a row to race on the green, and has been unsuccessful due to Mother Nature. Today is going to sunny and beautiful…he gets his desired surface and is bred for the grass, as his dam won twice on turf and sire was a turf monster, whose progeny are 15% on the win end routing. Might see a different horse today.