Handicapper Tips & Picks

POCAHONTAS (G3):

#15 CLAIRE'S CHARM still a maiden though upgraded on raw ability should she draw in. She turned in "winning" effort on debut and positive in the morning works out of that race into this confident move for stakes company. Prior to her debut she was working in company with stablemate JONATHAN'S WAY one of the expected favorites in the Iroquois (G3) later on the card. 

#9 STRONG STATE tuned in a BTL effort with a strong figure in her June debut at CD and improved second off setting an honest pace clearing the MSW condition in July at SAR. She is the lone runner in this field exiting a G1, and just one of two from a graded stakes into this event. She met a solid field in the Spinaway (G1) and showed solid gate speed (POP) over an off track and Fast early pace while giving up 51-days recency. She wheels right back (14-days) and intent for this spot while retaining regular rider, I. Ortiz. #8 ATOMIC CITY is the other with graded stakes experience coming back from the Adirondack (G3) covered in mud despite the listing of a fast track.  

#7 QUINN'S PROMISE caught the eye with a BTL effort on debut and validated those visuals breaking her maiden wheeling right back for the second start and holds route experience. She has been given the 47-day freshening and does require to improve on the speed figure standpoint though also holds some maturity over others as a Jan foal. 

LOUISVILLE THOROUGHBRED SOCIETY: 

Looking at the Plot, the lack of an edge (no value/weak) in terms of race shape comes into play for #10 SKELLY here and similar could be present for #2 CLOSETHEGAME SUGAR one that moves to the rail and a different dynamic (Sun/40) than prior starts; and if taking a front runner, the value falls on #6 HERE MI SONG of that trio. 

#7 HAPPY IS A CHOICE fits today's race shape/dynamic with figures and class on par. He holds a win over this course and distance off a similar freshening back on 6/22 and upgraded making a MOVE X_FLOW in the July stakes at Ellis Park. 

#3 CYCLONE MISCHIEF improved as projected with the change to the ONE_TURN distance picking up the belated win and confidence booster in the allowance last month. His other ONE_TURN races this season included a decent effort off the bench back on 11/26 at CD and some excuse losing his footing (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate in the F. Hooper (G3) at GP in Jan and against the dynamic showing run in the N2 allowances races from back in May/June. 

IROQUOIS (G3): 

This is a strong race and one to follow with a lot of talent shown in this group of lightly raced juveniles. Three debut efforts stood out and off the visuals can take the next step forward:

#3 JACK'S TIME will find the circuit switch though the IA bred posted a strong figure in his PRM debut and showed a ton of ability despite racing GREEN and still dominated the field. As impressive (B+) as he was to the wire, he continued to GALLOP+ strong looking like a fresh horse.

#10 JONATHAN'S WAY also very dominant (A-) showing class first out and validating his morning works on race day. He has the fitness wheeling back in less than 30-days for this race and looks to have come out of the debut well recording two works since including a strong half mile at CD on 9/7. 

#11 MESERO caught a big field and solid group in his debut breaking his maiden with the B+ OptixGRADE over an off track from off the pace and running down the BOS place finisher and next out winner Trew Violence. A runstyle that could be effective in a group with many front running winners in this field. 

#2 BILLY'S BET had a longshot look showing up in the 8/31 race with intent second off and after racing above condition off the layoff on 8/11. With that said, the trip played against them as the field BUNCHED up and the TACTIC- had them stacked WIDE on a solid pace impacting the outcome. They wheel right back in this spot and with a rider change where a rebound can be projected and longer odds still hold. 

EB JOHNSON STAKES: 

Sadler might have claimed #8 FAST DRAW MUNNINGS with this very race in mind. They ran in this stakes race last year finishing a strong second to a horse called Kings River Knight, a horse trained by Sadler. In terms of trip, FAST DRAW MUNNINGS has shown early speed (X_FLOW in the 8/31 layoff return) though going back to his sophomore season showed he could rate and finish and that could be the plan here - at the least with options given the outside post. 

#1 RASHMI turned in a strong BTL effort in their debut at DEL back in July as the lone runner in the field to make up ground - WIDE MOVE X_FLOW. They were cold on the board two weeks ago at KYD and the quick two week turnaround and shift to this circuit appears to suggest intent.